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Guest Viktor Nilsson

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Guest Viktor Nilsson

Hi! I've been working on an "aurora app" for iOS for some time now and it is about to be released and would love to hear what you think about my idea. I'm just a normal developer with interest for aurora, in other words no expert, but I decided to put an app together with data I would be interested in, and would now love to here you expert's (and normal user's) opinion about my approach and data I put together.

So the unique thing with my app would be two things mainly

1. Local aurora probability prediction. You can see what chances you have for auroral activity where you are. Does not take weather conditions into account, and is based on the Aurora 30 min forecast from NOAA.
2. Push notifications for above service, and also Kp as well as solar wind data (Bz, Bt and speed) (IAP).

What I've heard, the Aurora 30 min forecast from NOAA is not as accurate as looking on a local magnetometer, especially during active conditions, but I thought it could be a good indicator together with the Kp, but would like to hear your opinion regarding this. Is this correct and what do you think about my assumption? Would it be useful to be able to receive alerts for solar wind components at all?

The app is not live yet but screenshots can be seen here: http://viktornilsson.com/apps/auroranow/

All kinds of feedback and comments are highly appreciated!
Big thanks in advance!

Best regards,

Viktor Nilsson

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Hi and welcome on Spaceweatherlive!

as webmaster and aurora enthusiast of this site i am aware of all the good and bad things in the amazing world of aurora. It is a fact that models are often way off course, if it isn't ENLIL, it's Wing Kp or the oval forecast. So if you rely purely on ovation, it won't be good. It's helpful but not ideal. If you rely purely on predicted Kp, as the word says its predicted and it can also happen that its exaggerated. What's the best method? Combining all of them perhaps (speed density IMF, Kp, magnetometers, ...). If there was one way to tell it all it would be great but unfortunately space weather is a difficult business that still can't fit in one model that says it all, we have to interpret data to know what the real odds are.

we don't send alerts for high solar wind stream, doesn't add much. There are better things to alert for ;)

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Guest Viktor Nilsson

Hi and thank you so much for your input! Yeah I was afraid that would be the case, but from what you say I feel I could not do much more than this without having a deep understanding of the underlaying factors (and even then I would guess writing an algorithm for this would be more or less impossible). Maybe thats the beauty though, that to be accurate you need a lot of experience, know what to look for and not blindly look at the models.

I'm hoping that maybe the app could provide some kind of value to people not even heard of the Kp-index, normal tourists going north and hope to see the northern lights etc. But I do understand there are better ways to predict auroral activity than this, and it was nice to get it confirmed here as well!

Once again, thank you for your comments, highly appreciated!

(And I've been hanging around here for quite some time actually, frequent visitor but not a frequent writer :P, so thanks for all great content, love it!)

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Your app looks nice! I am allergic to dials as I want to see what the stats were during the past hours but I see you also use the NOAA ACE graphs.

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1. Local aurora probability prediction. You can see what chances you have for auroral activity where you are. Does not take weather conditions into account, and is based on the Aurora 30 min forecast from NOAA.

The OVATION oval % by the way is for overhead aurora. Not if aurora might be seen from that specific location. It estimates how likely it is for a any giving location to have aurora overhead. It predicts the location of the auroral oval. A great example of this is during Kp7 events where the magnetometers can drop very nicely and we often receive pictures of aurora near the horizon from the Netherlands but the % for the OVATION oval for the Netherlands would be at zero because it's not overhead. This is something to keep in mind.

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2. Push notifications for above service, and also Kp as well as solar wind data (Bz, Bt and speed) (IAP).

Push notifications are always nice I think to have as long as the user can adjust them to your liking. A Bz of -10 or lower to get an alert every time might be overkill but if you could adjust it yourself to perhaps -20 it might be useful.

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Guest Viktor Nilsson

Thank you for your comments! My plan was that the start screen would be very light weight in form of data traffic and have a dark theme to maintain a good night vision if outside. All data is loaded with one request in a minimum format to really make it load as fast as possible. I personally prefer to just get the data in "text format" without having to load heavy images. It all started out with the "now" concept so most of the data on that page would be now/forecast-stuff. But I know a lot of people like the images, so included a few graphs/images from NOAA showing data from the last days, have to admit that.

Regarding the ovation oval forecast, this was really good to hear that this only is for overhead aurora. Then I would guess it could be pretty ok for high latitude but not very useful for mid-latitude? Definitely something needed to be communicated to the user. Very much appreciated information! Thank you for pointing this out.

The settings for the push notifications can be adjusted by the user and setting a value of -20 for Bz is possible. All push notification services in the app are possible to adjust.

Have a few new things on the TODO list now, thanks!

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I think your app has potential. You put thought into it.

About night vision: I heard that red preserves night vision best. Stellarium has such a mode where everything is red. Might be an idea for your app?

Just OVATION is far from perfect but then again there is no perfect way to give a % for any location on Earth. A combination of different data sources would be best. You might want to take into account the predicted Kp-index with OVATION and make your own % somehow. It's very difficult to put % on aurora chances.

Very nice that you can change the alert values. I like that.

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Guest auroraville

Nice work on the app. Thought I'd throw in a few things....when I'm out chasing lights there are a few things I tend to use most often. First, the ACE data on a 2-hour plot. As of now I haven't found an app that does this particular variation, so I keep a browser window open on my phone. The Bz, Bt, Phi, density and speed are most useful, haven't really noticed the temp being a big factor but then I'm somewhat new to all this. The Ovation model is handy as well, mentioned above. Be sure whatever source you pull for Ovation updates regularly as some apps require a manual refresh or will "hang" when they go to update. Likewise an auto-refresh on ACE data would be nice as well. Probably the most useless model I have found is the WingKP, never really is close to accurate. Maybe I am just not interpreting it properly, who knows. Lastly, I find a window with a current satellite view to be useful in determining visibility based on cloud cover....both in your vicinity and directly to the north. Likely out of the scope of an aurora app though. 

I would not mind seeing alerts customizable on solar wind speed, Bz value, and maybe Bt. Perhaps even density. Alerts based on just KP values can actually come in too late, particularly if you have to travel a short distance to a viewing location. 

Thanks for the work on the app, looks very promising!

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Guest Viktor Nilsson
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About night vision: I heard that red preserves night vision best. Stellarium has such a mode where everything is red. Might be an idea for your app?

Yeah I thought about this, and colors with long wavelength, such as red, are colors to preserve the night vision the best, and that is the reason why I avoided colors with short wavelength, such as blue. I mainly use red yellow and green in the app, and sure, for the purpose of preserving the night vision, the best would have been to replace all these with red, but then it wouldn't be that playful (inspired by your website, green is low activity, and red is high which will change depending on the values in the app). But I will definitely take your suggestion in mind and maybe add a switch to turn the whole app into even more night vision friendly mode :)  Good advice!

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Just OVATION is far from perfect but then again there is no perfect way to give a % for any location on Earth. A combination of different data sources would be best. You might want to take into account the predicted Kp-index with OVATION and make your own % somehow. It's very difficult to put % on aurora chances.

Will look into this and consider the use of %-value as well! Might not be the best choice.

 

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Nice work on the app. Thought I'd throw in a few things....when I'm out chasing lights there are a few things I tend to use most often. First, the ACE data on a 2-hour plot. As of now I haven't found an app that does this particular variation, so I keep a browser window open on my phone. The Bz, Bt, Phi, density and speed are most useful, haven't really noticed the temp being a big factor but then I'm somewhat new to all this. The Ovation model is handy as well, mentioned above. Be sure whatever source you pull for Ovation updates regularly as some apps require a manual refresh or will "hang" when they go to update. Likewise an auto-refresh on ACE data would be nice as well. Probably the most useless model I have found is the WingKP, never really is close to accurate. Maybe I am just not interpreting it properly, who knows. Lastly, I find a window with a current satellite view to be useful in determining visibility based on cloud cover....both in your vicinity and directly to the north. Likely out of the scope of an aurora app though. 

Thank you for your comments! Maybe will add some configuration features where you can for example choose what kind of time span you want for the different plots/data. I guess different people want different things and a customizable app would most likely be the most appreciated. At the moment the 2-hour plot for the ACE data is actually included in the app, but instead of reading the data and present a custom plot I just present the image NOAA distribute (under the tab 'Graphics').

The data will automatically be reloaded when you re-enter a view, but there is a minimum limit the app waits before new data will be loaded (1-5 min depending on page/view), to prevent unnecessary data load and server load. I will keep my eyes open for this one, don't know yet what is the best solution so I will keep this in mind.

The satellite images would indeed be cool, I will take a note of this at least, but I guess there are good weather apps for this? If you have any good apps for this I would love to hear some example and I will check them out for inspiration.

 

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I would not mind seeing alerts customizable on solar wind speed, Bz value, and maybe Bt. Perhaps even density. Alerts based on just KP values can actually come in too late, particularly if you have to travel a short distance to a viewing location. 

Nice to here! The ones that will be available in the first version, for solar wind, is Bz, Bt and Speed. Good to hear your experience with the Kp as well.

 

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Thanks for the work on the app, looks very promising!

Thank YOU, and everyone else too, for showing interest and taking your time helping improving it! :)

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18 uren geleden, Viktor Nilsson zei:

Would love to hear what you think and what kind of bugs have to be fixed in the next release :)

 

Installed it yesterday and did some testing. If a user don't wants his location to be revealed, the other data that isn't location based like speed and IMF, they are not displayed

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Guest Viktor Nilsson
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Are you planning to make an Android app too? I saw the screenshots from your app and it looks really nice. Unfortunately I don't have an Apple device so I can't use the app :(

Unfortunately I'm not an Android developer but I have started to ask coworkers that might be interested in developing an Android version. But for now, there is no Android version on its way yet :(

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Installed it yesterday and did some testing. If a user don't wants his location to be revealed, the other data that isn't location based like speed and IMF, they are not displayed

Good catch! Will be fixed in next version!

Thank you for your comments and feedback!

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Guest NOVA Dębki

App looks promising. But I have one remark, it should be more Kp 5+ or higher for the next few nights (and next and next and next ...); O)
The author maybe have a solution to fix this problem?
Regards

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Guest Viktor Nilsson
On 2015-12-09 at 2:56 PM, NOVA Dębki said:

App looks promising. But I have one remark, it should be more Kp 5+ or higher for the next few nights (and next and next and next ...); O)
The author maybe have a solution to fix this problem?
Regards

Thank you for your comment! Hehe yes, I wish I had a solution to your Kp5+ problem, but unfortunately I don't. But I think we reached around Kp5 a few times the last days?

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Guest one.moment

Hi Viktor,

I think your app is amazing.

I would like to make one suggestion. If the app knows where I am, it would be nice to change the UTC time to the local time in the 3 day Kp forecast. What do you think?

Thanks, Thomas

One more comment.

In other fields neural networks have been used to increase the predictive power of a model. For that one (you) could use historical observed data and all the parameters we think are predictive to improve the model. Do I make sense?

Thanks, Thomas

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  • 3 weeks later...
Guest NOVA Dębki
On 12.12.2015 at 10:10 PM, Viktor Nilsson said:

Thank you for your comment! Hehe yes, I wish I had a solution to your Kp5+ problem, but unfortunately I don't. But I think we reached around Kp5 a few times the last days?

Oh yes! The last days were very exciting and crowned with success (photos from New Year's Eve). Your application was very helpful. I have one suggestion (this time seriously) that can be implemented. It was nice to be able to share information with other users in real time, that I now noticed aurora (the application knowing my location complements place, time, KP and polarization). This instant information can help someone in a decision that should go outside despite the cold. The analysis of the history of notifications can be an interesting source of information, what are chances for aurora for its location.

great job
greetings

Piotr 

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Guest Engelsman Finland

Hi. What would be cool is a three point alert. I live in southern Finland. I would happily pay for a new app that...

+4 kp -3bz and a +2 on density. Or adjustable. Then the phone gives a voice alert or a unique noise (or iPad)

i will install the app later. Thanks for the hard work.

installed and paid for the bz part. Can you add density? I set up a fb group for Aurora alerts. I will test it then let them know. Next 36 hours will be a good test for it.

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Guest Engelsman Finland

Hi. I just upgraded from iPad to iPad pro. But the paid for service did not transfer over. 

And I got an alert at +5bz not -5bz

 

i fixed the problem. On login page you could say write email address as login. I have no idea what to set the bt too... It's a good a few more handy instructions would make it easier for people like me.

 

 

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Guest Viktor Nilsson
Quote

I think your app is amazing.

I would like to make one suggestion. If the app knows where I am, it would be nice to change the UTC time to the local time in the 3 day Kp forecast. What do you think?

Thanks, Thomas

One more comment.

In other fields neural networks have been used to increase the predictive power of a model. For that one (you) could use historical observed data and all the parameters we think are predictive to improve the model. Do I make sense?

Thank you for you kind words and comment! Thats a great idea regarding changing the UTC to local time, will definitely consider this! Neural networks sounds advanced and I guess thats not something that I will look into in the near future. But thanks for introducing the concept!

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Oh yes! The last days were very exciting and crowned with success (photos from New Year's Eve). Your application was very helpful. I have one suggestion (this time seriously) that can be implemented. It was nice to be able to share information with other users in real time, that I now noticed aurora (the application knowing my location complements place, time, KP and polarization). This instant information can help someone in a decision that should go outside despite the cold. The analysis of the history of notifications can be an interesting source of information, what are chances for aurora for its location.

Appreciate the kind words! Happy that the app was helpful, always happy to hear that kind of comments! :) I think your idea is interesting and it could be a future feature, to somehow implement user-triggered notifications. Will take some time to get a good algorithm for this, but could be awesome if working properly!

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Hi. What would be cool is a three point alert. I live in southern Finland. I would happily pay for a new app that...

+4 kp -3bz and a +2 on density. Or adjustable. Then the phone gives a voice alert or a unique noise (or iPad)

i will install the app later. Thanks for the hard work.

installed and paid for the bz part. Can you add density? I set up a fb group for Aurora alerts. I will test it then let them know. Next 36 hours will be a good test for it.

Yeah first I was thinking about this highly configurable approach with mixing different variables, but it will require a lot more knowledge how to use these properly. If this kind of highly configurable alert service is something many people would like to see I'm always interested in adding such a feature, or release an other app with such feature. Have a list in the backlog that will be higher prioritized before that though but I love to hear what people want to be able to use a northern light app for!

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i fixed the problem. On login page you could say write email address as login. I have no idea what to set the bt too... It's a good a few more handy instructions would make it easier for people like me.

Great feedback! I will add information-buttons for all alert services as soon as I can to be able to communicate what the service does and reasonable values to use.

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And I got an alert at +5bz not -5bz

I assume the alert you got was not triggered because of the bz value, but for either bt or speed. If any of the conditions matches, you will get a notification. If you only want for for example bz, just put speed and bt to max values, then bz is the only value that will trigger the ACE alert.

 

Thank you all so much for the feedback on the app and just wanted to let you know that you are always welcome to continue suggesting features like these above, hopefully I can implement some of your suggestions and make the app better!

Best regards,
Viktor Nilsson

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Hi. I just upgraded from iPad to iPad pro. But the paid for service did not transfer over. 

Forgot to reply to this. Maybe you already solved it but will answer for future users in that case :)

If you purchase a service and download the app on an other device, you can go to the info-page and create an account on the device you bought the service(s) on. After that, login on the new device and the services will be transferred to your new device.

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Guest Engelsman Finland

Thanks for the advice. It's the negative bz and bt I am interested in. And the alert got triggered by the speed.. And on this site if you press help on the charts on the auroral activity page. It tells you that bt at mid levels is 25? But it's not a science I fully understand.

keep up the good work.

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