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Marcel de Bont

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About Marcel de Bont

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    SpaceWeatherLive Manager
  • Birthday 07/15/1989

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    Norrbotten, Sweden

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  1. Marcel de Bont


    USAF WING KP MODEL REMOVED FROM SWPC WEBSITE The NOAA SWPC has discontinued their support of the USAF Wing-Kp model. The Wing-Kp index and was used extensively on SpaceWeatherLive back in the ''good old days'' as it was very easy to implement and it had a unique feature that provided a prediction as to what the Kp will be in the near future. However, as most of you are aware, we always had a love-hate relationship with this model as the predicted Kp-values were sometimes way too high or lagging behind as a storm suddenly increased in intensity. It was not the greatest way to predict auroral activity according to our experiences. About one and a half year ago, we ditched the Wing-Kp index in favor of NOAA's own Estimated Planetary K-index for our alert system so the Wing-Kp index was hardly used anymore on our website apart from a graph being present at the bottom of our Kp-index page. Now that NOAA discontinues their support, the graph there will be removed soon. For more details please read NOAA's news item on the NOAA SWPC website.
  2. Kiruna sloeg inderdaad ver uit afgelopen nacht maar de Kp-index bleef steken op 5. Was een vrij onverwachte kans en de nachten zijn nu erg kort, vermoed dat er niet veel poollicht jagers alert waren maar ben benieuwd of iemand iets gezien hebt!
  3. Marcel de Bont

    Sunrise photo question

    Hello. My guess would be an optical illusion created by your lens. Perhaps moisture or something that accumulated on your lens.
  4. Marcel de Bont

    X‐Ray Dropouts?

    Correct. The Earth comes in between the Sun and the GOES satellites for a short period once a day around the spring and autumn equinoxes. This means GOES can not see the Sun and measure it's X-output. It's as simple as that.
  5. Marcel de Bont

    Help translate SpaceWeatherLive into your language

    Hello Neo Jiang and lingduxingxi, Thank you so much for your offers. We have to test if we can provide a Chinese translation as the characters in your language require some changes to the website from a technical standpoint. We will get back to you when we can provide a definitive answer.
  6. Marcel de Bont

    Gran llamarada solar el próximo 8 de marzo

    Sunspot region 2701 has already decayed but it was way too small and not complex enough to produce a large solar flare. Even so, we are close to solar minimum which means sunspots and solar flares are very rare. To top it all of, solar flares can not be predicted in advance.
  7. Marcel de Bont

    Gran llamarada solar el próximo 8 de marzo

    Indeed the NOAA SWPC forecasts Kp5 for that date due to a recurring coronal hole solar wind stream but Kp5 is just a minor G1 geomagnetic storm. The articles predict almost ''end of the world'' like geomagnetic consequences but G1 geomagnetic storms are common events. Coronal holes also have nothing to do with solar flares of course.
  8. Marcel de Bont

    Gran llamarada solar el próximo 8 de marzo

    Hello. I do not speak your language but I think I got a good understanding of your question by using Google Translate. You are asking about a prediction done about a large solar flare taking place this coming 18 March. I can assure you that this is total nonsense. Solar flares can not be predicted in advance first of all. Secondly, we are close to solar minimum and that means sunspot regions and solar flares are very rare. The source of your information should not be trusted.
  9. Regarding your latest link: DST must be the Disturbance storm time index which can also be found on this website and a quick Google search should explain in detail what the DST is. Kp is the derived Kp-index of the mentioned time I assume. The last 4 values must be values from 4 different magnetometer stations (no idea where they could be), I assume the numbers mean the deflection in nT from the quiet day curve with 0 being the baseline for a quiet day. -55 would be -55nT below the quiet day value. Don't quote me on this but I think that would be it.
  10. Im not sure if that kind of data comes in .json files. Most is in .txt files. Kp can be found in .json. You can also try to focus on magnetometer data from a station nearby?
  11. It all depends on what specific data you are looking for but it should be available on NOAA's servers. Some data comes in .json form other in .txt.
  12. Marcel de Bont

    CME Math

    Does your equation in any way take into account the current ambient solar wind speed
  13. Marcel de Bont

    774 solar event x class what if carrington event x45

    The strength of a solar radiation storm or geomagnetic storm doesn't say all too much about the strength of a solar flare. High M-class solar flares can in theory cause the same mayhem as a high X-class solar flare but of course, stronger solar flares in general cause stronger space weather effects. It also depends how eruptive a solar flare is. We have had impulsive X-class solar flares that didn't cause any kind of noteworthy space weather effects. The X-ray emission strength of a solar flare never tells the whole story. For solar radiation storms, the location of the solar flare is also very important when it comes to how many protons are able to reach Earth. These protons follow the general direction of the Parker Spiral. The 774 event can't be 60 times stronger than the 1989 event. You do the math. The solar flare scale works like this: X1 is 10 times stronger than M1. X10 is 10 times stronger than X1. X100 is 10 times stronger than X10 and 100 times stronger than X1 . I don't think it is possible to accurately estimate the strength of a solar flare that took place such a long time ago but... well I have no idea. I'm not a scientist.
  14. Marcel de Bont

    774 solar event x class what if carrington event x45

    I am unfamiliar with the 774 event. Which date was this solar flare? You mean the year 774?
  15. Marcel de Bont

    Smartphone Detection of geomagnetic storms

    That's a great result! Congratulations! Did you get similar readings between the smartphone and a professional magnetometer? Good to know that you got a result and the data wasn't hindered by any outside influences.

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