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Marcel de Bont

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About Marcel de Bont

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    SpaceWeatherLive Manager
  • Birthday 07/15/1989

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    Norrbotten, Sweden
  • Interests
    Aurora, photography

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  1. I don't remember where I read about that thought it was on SIDCs website somewhere but cant find it. Might have been a scientific paper. Could be mixing up things. Anyway, thought this graph was interesting showing the historical 10.7cm radio flux where short or prolonged periods of ''quiet radio sun'' do seem to tell a bit about the next cycle. Check also http://www.stce.be/news/417/welcome.html Also a big thanks to northwind-adventurer for chiming in with his excellent post.
  2. Haven't checked but if this group has a reverse polarity compared to SC24 groups in the same hemisphere that combined with the fact is is at a high latitude it could very well be a group that belongs to SC25. It does not mean SC25 has started as SC24 and SC25 groups will continue to appear even if SC25 starts but its always nice to see signs of SC25. All I am hoping for is a short minimum that would increase the chances of SC25 being stronger than SC24.
  3. Sorry to hear you got offended by the way you were being addressed CazadorDeWulf. I understand why you feel the way you do but I am 100% sure it wasn't Sander's intention to sound pretentious or arrogant. We do our best to help everyone as good as we can as quickly as we can. Hope you can see trough the first part of his post that offended you and the rest of his post was of help for you. Thanks for your support and contributions!
  4. Hello MuronJames and welcome. I moved your and Sander's post to create a new topic. Let us know in what way we can help you. Do you not understand the help articles? What symbols are you referring to?
  5. Space weather is a global phenomenon that impacts our entire planet in some cases but mainly areas around the poles. Different space weather events affect our planet in different ways. Sometimes there can be very local more extreme disturbances of the magnetic field during a geomagnetic storm which we can use magnetometers for that are stationed around the world. However, accurately estimating and modeling these kind of local disturbances is not possible as far as I know. You can use the OVATION model which gives a rough estimate of the strength of the auroral oval 30 minutes in the future but its just that. An estimate.
  6. I assume you are looking for computer generated solar wind models? Try the ENLIL models from NOAA and NASA https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil
  7. Het is erg lastig te zeggen welke erupties wanneer aangekomen zijn en welke ons gemist hebben. Alles lijkt in een grote soep veranderd te zijn bij wijze van spreken. Heb wat foto's gezien uit Noord Amerika en een hele mooie uit Nieuw Zeeland zoals in het nieuws gebruikt is. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/387/20190514-strong-g3-geomagnetic-storm Het klopt dat CMEs afremmen onderweg naar de Aarde en hoe snel zulke plasma wolken afremmen is de kunst om dat te voorspellen en nog steeds erg lastig. Er word wel degelijk rekening mee gehouden in ieder geval maar om het accuraat te voorspellen is zeer lastig zeker bij zulke langzame CMEs. In ieder geval ik denk dat de CME die voor de G3 storm zorgde de CME was die afgelopen zaterdag gelanceerd was.
  8. Hoi Ferdie. Even je post verplaatst en een nieuw topic aangemaakt. Inderdaad onverwachts een Kp van 7 maar helaas overdag voor de Benelux. Helaas zijn de condities al lang niet meer goed genoeg voor de Benelux dus de kans vanavond zal zo goed als nul zijn. Er is echter nog steeds een, mogelijks twee CMEs die nog steeds kunnen aankomen waarschijnlijk morgen of overmorgen. Dit zijn geen sterke CMEs maar met de juiste waardes... wie weet. Zal niet al te veel hopen maar we weten het nooit...
  9. Something I will never forget... Primary: ...and secondary:
  10. Hey Steve, welcome! Thanks a ton for your input. It is really interesting for a novice like me who has virtually no connection to HAM radio at all to read about your experiences. We'll continue our research into the subject and see in what way we can improve SWL to cater more towards HAM radio users as well. This forum is a quick and easy first step to accomplish this so let's hope more HAM radio users find their way here. I think a dedicated page with all the critical info for HAM radio users would be a nice thing to have to make SWL more complete and even more interesting to the HAM radio community.
  11. Hello all and welcome to this shiny new forum dedicated to Amateur Radio (HAM radio) discussions. The HAM radio community is large and has thus far not really been a focal point for our website but we do know quite a few of you visit us regularly to check on the solar conditions. I have to admit, we do not know so much about HAM radio but that makes it even more exciting to open this forum and see if we can get some discussions going in here. We will learn from it and hopefully we can get a community going in here. Something else we are looking for is input from you on how we can improve our website SpaceWeatherLive.com for HAM radio users. What would you like to see on SWL to aid you with your hobby and where can we find the information that you use? Maybe we can integrate it in our site and create a page dedicated to HAM radio? The possibilities are endless (our webmaster Sander might not agree 100% with that but dont tell him okay) so get your thinking caps on fire away.
  12. Hello Ruben. This group is old sunspot region 2737. It belongs to SC24. This group consists of only one sunspot it seems at the moment and lots of faculae so thats an indicator that is has decayed. It does not look likely that it can produce much flare activity. The Sun rotates around its axis in about 27 days so you can calculate it will face Earth in about six to seven days or so. Thanks for the comments about our website. Means a lot to us.
  13. We do provide a long term forecast from the NOAA SWPC on this website but its accuracy is shaky at best as space weather is still hard to predict accurately. Coronal hole solar wind streams can sort of be predicted weeks in advance but CMEs can not. They can only be predicted 24 hours to 4 days in advance depending on the CME its speed. You will also find the maximum predicted Kp for today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow on our front page. Hard to miss.
  14. Nog steeds geen enkel spoor van de verwachte coronale massa uitstoot. Met iedere minuut die weg tikt lijkt het erop dat de plasma wolk onze planeet gemist hebt. Mocht de wolk erg vertraagd zijn op zijn reis van de Zon naar onze planeet zou er vandaag nog een hele zwakke impact mogelijk kunnen zijn maar dit lijkt ons onwaarschijnlijk. Het ziet ernaar uit dat de coronale massa uitstoot onze planeet gemist heeft en alle hype voor niks was helaas...
  15. Het ruimteweer is op dit moment nog steeds erg rustig en er is nog geen enkel spoor te bekennen van de coronale massa uitstoot die vandaag aan zou/gaat komen. De kans op poollicht in Nederland is op dit moment 0%! Mocht hier verandering in komen zullen we u op de hoogte houden.
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