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Marcel de Bont

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About Marcel de Bont

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    SpaceWeatherLive Manager
  • Birthday 07/15/1989

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    www.spaceweatherlive.com

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Norrbotten, Sweden
  • Interests
    Aurora, photography

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  1. Just some plasma that tried to escape but got caught by the Sun's gravity causing it to stream back to the solar surface?
  2. Welcome. That is still pretty much up to debate how large the Sun's impact is. I can't really give you an answer on this in great detail as I know too little about this but our Sun has always been a factor on our climate since the beginning of time. We did had the Maunder minimum which was a period with low solar activity and colder than average temperatures on Earth. The Sun does influence our planet of course but mankind's influence on our planet is a much larger factor when it comes to global warming.
  3. Marcel de Bont

    aurora.jpg

    Amazing! Where and when was this!
  4. That is the planet Venus.
  5. Hello. The Earth line indicates the solar wind / IMF values currently at Earth. Everything right of this line is somewhere between the Sun-Earth L1 point and Earth. Everything left of this line has already passed Earth. If you have more questions or want additional information please let me know!
  6. Hello. Just thinking about the location of Churchill I suspect the nights there will be very short so the chances of seeing aurora in the few hours it might be dark enough might be slim especially during the quiet solar wind conditions we are in now. https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/canada/churchill?month=8&year=2019 I assume you look at the map made by the NOAA SWPC. It is the map with a top down view over the arctic and not the 2D maps made by us. While the OVATION model is just a computer generated guide it does give you a quick overview of the aurora conditions in the very near future. But like you are saying. With values below 20GW the chance to see aurora is slim to none. Even at arctic latitudes I doubt there is much to see. I do think the color table the NOAA SWPC uses can be a bit deceiving. 12GW is really low. I advice you to learn to read the solar wind data as well and combine all the information on the website to form your own opinion as to what to expect but you are on the right track already when you say below 20GW gives little or no aurora. I do think Churchill is a good place to observe aurora if the skies become dark enough, you dont need much for aurora there but a little bit more activity might be needed. Maybe there is a coronal hole coming that could give you some aurora... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-images/stereo
  7. The auroral forecast graphical map and hemispheric power chart come from the same model. There shouldn't be any difference. Remember the green colors on the map mean only a very small chance of visible aurora. Yellow and red colors indicate higher probabilities. Are you at Churchill at the coast of the Hudson Bay? If so aurora should be common there?
  8. I don't remember where I read about that thought it was on SIDCs website somewhere but cant find it. Might have been a scientific paper. Could be mixing up things. Anyway, thought this graph was interesting showing the historical 10.7cm radio flux where short or prolonged periods of ''quiet radio sun'' do seem to tell a bit about the next cycle. Check also http://www.stce.be/news/417/welcome.html Also a big thanks to northwind-adventurer for chiming in with his excellent post.
  9. Haven't checked but if this group has a reverse polarity compared to SC24 groups in the same hemisphere that combined with the fact is is at a high latitude it could very well be a group that belongs to SC25. It does not mean SC25 has started as SC24 and SC25 groups will continue to appear even if SC25 starts but its always nice to see signs of SC25. All I am hoping for is a short minimum that would increase the chances of SC25 being stronger than SC24.
  10. Sorry to hear you got offended by the way you were being addressed CazadorDeWulf. I understand why you feel the way you do but I am 100% sure it wasn't Sander's intention to sound pretentious or arrogant. We do our best to help everyone as good as we can as quickly as we can. Hope you can see trough the first part of his post that offended you and the rest of his post was of help for you. Thanks for your support and contributions!
  11. Hello MuronJames and welcome. I moved your and Sander's post to create a new topic. Let us know in what way we can help you. Do you not understand the help articles? What symbols are you referring to?
  12. Space weather is a global phenomenon that impacts our entire planet in some cases but mainly areas around the poles. Different space weather events affect our planet in different ways. Sometimes there can be very local more extreme disturbances of the magnetic field during a geomagnetic storm which we can use magnetometers for that are stationed around the world. However, accurately estimating and modeling these kind of local disturbances is not possible as far as I know. You can use the OVATION model which gives a rough estimate of the strength of the auroral oval 30 minutes in the future but its just that. An estimate.
  13. I assume you are looking for computer generated solar wind models? Try the ENLIL models from NOAA and NASA https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil
  14. Het is erg lastig te zeggen welke erupties wanneer aangekomen zijn en welke ons gemist hebben. Alles lijkt in een grote soep veranderd te zijn bij wijze van spreken. Heb wat foto's gezien uit Noord Amerika en een hele mooie uit Nieuw Zeeland zoals in het nieuws gebruikt is. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/387/20190514-strong-g3-geomagnetic-storm Het klopt dat CMEs afremmen onderweg naar de Aarde en hoe snel zulke plasma wolken afremmen is de kunst om dat te voorspellen en nog steeds erg lastig. Er word wel degelijk rekening mee gehouden in ieder geval maar om het accuraat te voorspellen is zeer lastig zeker bij zulke langzame CMEs. In ieder geval ik denk dat de CME die voor de G3 storm zorgde de CME was die afgelopen zaterdag gelanceerd was.
  15. Hoi Ferdie. Even je post verplaatst en een nieuw topic aangemaakt. Inderdaad onverwachts een Kp van 7 maar helaas overdag voor de Benelux. Helaas zijn de condities al lang niet meer goed genoeg voor de Benelux dus de kans vanavond zal zo goed als nul zijn. Er is echter nog steeds een, mogelijks twee CMEs die nog steeds kunnen aankomen waarschijnlijk morgen of overmorgen. Dit zijn geen sterke CMEs maar met de juiste waardes... wie weet. Zal niet al te veel hopen maar we weten het nooit...
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