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Patrick Geryl

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Patrick Geryl last won the day on July 31

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About Patrick Geryl

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  1. Something else. Please go to alternative forum. I calculated a complex sunspot. It is now on the Southeast limb. High is for today unfortunately...
  2. Important. I calculated a complex sunspot that was born on August 6. It is now on the Southeast limb! M flares are possible on August 11-12. Please see complete calculation on the above link. Thank you!
  3. This is for Christopher. We just got a rejection for our article The Adjusted Solar Flux & the Start of Solar Cycle 25. Reason: date was right but not novel enough... Any suggestions what to do now?
  4. Remarks: . At the start of solar Cycle 25, only the strongest sunspots will be created. However, solar Cycle 25 will increase in strength from August 2020 . . The sunspots can appear anywhere on the Sun. . Calculating sunspots is highly complex and time consuming. Sometimes we overlook an alignment and another formula can be found. This will be corrected afterwards. Here is the complete explanation: https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers-Astrophysics/Download/8291 Here you can find the calculated sunspots till the end of September... Problem: Stereo is only working partially: makes it highly complex to see when the sunspots where born... Wasn't a problem in 2014 when I found the theory... https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers/View/8214
  5. If you go to the site of jan Alvestad today, you will see that Solar Cycle 25 is ramping up https://www.solen.info/solar/
  6. As stated before, I hope that our findings can help in the publication of my other findings. An important one is that the solar flux is in fact the same as the axial dipole field = sunspot number. Jan Alvestad currently found a strong proof for that. We added that to our article for peer review (not on ResearchGate because it is a recent finding) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342548883_Solar_Cycle_25_Started_on_November_17_2019_with_365_Days_Smoothing In short the correlation for solar max between SSN and Solar flux: ISN 0.817 High resolution 1K: 0.987 So the ISN is 'not so good', while the high resolution is 'wow', meaning that we speak about the same phenomenon! The publication of our article was possible because I got help from Jan Alvestad. Is there any other astronomer or scientist interested in co-authoring my above listed articles on ResearchGate? How to compare different data sets Up until now no valid method was proposed to compare the different sunspot methods. However, if we fit all the data sets with the 10.7cm adjusted flux and fit the adjusted flux with the sunspot methods, we find a workable approach. Percentage difference between average fitted and average adjusted solar 10.7 flux strength after corrections. The calculation started in January 2012 and ended with an adjusted flux above 100 on February 2016. Cycle 24 Duration 2012/01 - 2015/12 Average difference in % between fitted and adjusted solar flux STAR Highest difference Date % diff. Second highest difference Date % diff. Fitted 2K -0.1 2014/10 -12.7 2012/01 -11.4 Fitted 1K -0.2 2014/03 12.3 2014/05 11.9 Fitted mean 1K+2K -0.1 2016/02 16.0 2014/10 -12.7 Fitted NOAA -0.2 2014/10 -17.5 2015/03 -15.2 Fitted ISN -3.8 2015/03 -20.9 2014/10 -20.8 Fitted Wolf -5.1 2014/10 -20.9 2015/03 -19.9 Fitted formula Tapping -6.6 2015/03 -24.5 2014/10 -23.5
  7. I also have that. A part from that is published on ResearchGate. My hope is that the scientific community will research it after our prediction. I submitted it several times - no faults could be found - but it was probably too early. This is the theoretical sunspot theory: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem With that I found the strength of cycles: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333445984_2_Solutions_for_the_Axial_Dipole_Field_In_Phase_and_in_Anti-Phase So I know that the strength of Solar Cycle 25 is currently as strong as Solar Cycle 24. If the axial dipole field is stronger in the future, then the strength of Cycle 25 will also go up... And I also found that the strength of the polar fields is in fact the solar flux. This proofs the finding of Jan Alvestad with his high resolution sunspot calculations: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Patrick_Geryl/project/Research-Polar-Fields/attachment/5e9149edf155db0001f42cee/AS:878994169790464@1586579949042/download/Research+polar+fields.pdf?context=ProjectUpdatesLog
  8. You need to read the peer reviewed article. You can read it for free if you click on the PDF. The key is the 2K high resolution sunspot calculation. It 'bounces up' a few months before the turning point. We didn't know that before. Also the 365 days smoothing average is a recent finding. Therefore you need to combine the info in our 3 articles.
  9. We developed a new theory (A Formula For the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle) to calculate the start of a new sunspot cycle: the paper was published in Astrophysics and Space Science. Determining the start of a solar cycle is one of the most followed questions in astrophysics because it may be important to professionals like astronauts, astrophysicists, engineers responsible for protecting the power grid, etcetera. The latest NASA prediction panel considers April 2020 as likely to become the starting month of the new cycle. We disagree and point to October 2019 as a central point to calculate the start. Why? Since 1947 a radio telescope in Canada has been measuring solar flux. We found something peculiar: in most of the previous 6 cycle transitions, the lowest daily solar flux values were near 64. The new solar cycle started a few months before or after these clusters of minimum values. In October 2019 there was another cluster of measurements below 66. A preliminary conclusion was that Cycle 25 was going to start between August 2019 and January 2020. Co-author Jan Alvestad has a widely followed website Solar Terrestrial Activity Report and maintains high resolution sunspot counts based on images from the SDO NASA spacecraft. If you look (indirectly) at the Sun with telescopes, most days will be spotless near solar minimum, and those spots that can be observed are small and usually disappear quickly. However, there are plenty of tiny spots in high resolution images. For instance when other observers using traditional resolution telescopes see 1 sunspot at minimum, Jan Alvestad observes and documents 4-6 times more at the highest image resolution. This gives a new perspective on the 300 year old method of counting sunspots. Meanwhile we found more markers (under review) and their latest calculations point to November-December 2019, and especially December 2019 as the likely start of Solar Cycle 25. Shortly after we found that Solar Cycle 25 started in November or December 2019, we discovered something that at first seemed hard to believe. Using 365 days smoothing, 4 out of 5 of the data series available all had the solar minimum on the same day. The NOAA sunspot number, solar flux at 1 AU as well as both the STAR 1K and 2K high resolution sunspot numbers all had their lowest value on November 17, 2019. We sent a paper on this discovery for peer review knowing it would not be published before the official announcement of the start of Solar Cycle 25. Anyway, co-author Jan Alvestad added this important information to the STAR web site in June 2020. The pre-print was published on ResearchGate as the last in a trilogy of papers that could change how we determine when a new solar cycle begins. More can be found on the website of Jan Alvestad: http://solarresearch.info/
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