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About braintic

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    Minor flare

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    Sydney, Australia
  1. The only prediction I can make about cycle 25 is that it will wax and wane, and 11 years from now the same people will be predicting an "imminent little ice age" despite global temperatures having risen again over the previous decade (barring another Tambora).
  2. If it does, then it is not a "grand solar minimum". According to published research, even the Maunder minimum lowered global average temperatures by only about 0.4 degrees. People who propose a "little ice age" forget that this minimum was was superimposed on a drop in global temperatures that had been pre-existing for 300 years so could not have been caused by a lowering in solar activity. Such background low temperatures do not exist currently. This minimum in average sunspot counts fell by only 0.4 over the last minimum (2.2 to 1.8). To turn that into a Dalton-like minimum it would have to not only fall to 0.0, but stay there for a full year. It can't be ruled out in the future, but there is nothing to indicate it is close to being likely.
  3. Accounting for the whole range of predictions, one thing can be fairly certain ... the sun is not about to go into a Maunder-like minimum.
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