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Christopher S.

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Christopher S. last won the day on June 11

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About Christopher S.

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    Science, Music, Martial Arts

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  1. Solar Minimum, as in the absolute minimum of solar activity for SC24/25 transition, has already passed. We're guessing Dec. of 2019 was the most exact period of time that it occurred. It's now 7 months later, and solar activity has begun ramping up ever so slightly, and it will continue to build very slightly for the next few years. The amount of solar activity we will see in the next 6-12 months won't be extraordinary. The virus will surely die down regardless of solar activity. This will hopefully convince believers of the correlation between these two things that there is, in fact, no link between solar minimum and the pandemic.
  2. So, while we're on the same page... Do you guys have any guesses as to why it is behaving this way? It is not as though the data is miles off from possible conditions - the trend of data does appear to follow fundamental, empirical patterns... What is more likely? An errant, human-based offset applied to data readings?(Imagine the DST is not properly "zeroed"), or, an atmospheric or geological phenomenon influencing the geomagnetic readouts? Is the latter even possible?
  3. The prediction model is generally accurate, but not without its faults. However, the observed DST data is anomalous and doesn't match the actual geomagnetic conditions, so that is why we're concluding that the data from Kyoto isn't to be trusted at the moment. The predicted DST is more in-line with actual conditions, as of the beginning of this anomalous data reporting. As for how useful it is, well, for now it gives a more accurate picture of the DST than the actual observation data being reported. Generally though, the smaller time intervals of the prediction model make it more useful for Aurora watchers to catch the phenomenon before it's missed.
  4. Agreed, I'm not trying to imply you've made any mistakes. I'm just at a loss for why it has been in this state for as long as it has without correction or at least a statement from SWPC/NOAA. I hope they're not terribly understaffed or underfunded at the moment, lol - it is a bit of a trying time over here in the states.
  5. My gut also tells me this data is a bit anomalous. If there is a valid reason for the values to be what they are/were, it would be interesting to look into the cause. But, yes, it just isn't quite right. For any somewhat superstitious readers/observers out there noticing this, it's not likely a sign of something we should worry about. Seismic activity is not abnormal, GOES data is what you might expect for a quiet period, and the weather is not anymore voracious than it's been for the last few weeks.
  6. There appears to be some influence from a coronal hole in the regions of the geomagnetic sensors causing the averaged data to reflect a geomagnetic disturbance, but in reality the influence is weak and isolated to those regions. That's my best guess, based on SWPC forecasting. The only weird thing about it to me is the duration of this isolated disturbance - it's been like this for a bit over 24h, so perhaps the CH wind field is relatively wide. If anyone has light to shed on this, I'd be curious to know as well.
  7. Interesting. It is understood that magnetic forces(the "heart" of flares and sunspots) are exponentially stronger than gravity. However, further analysis might be key in determining the link between gravitational pull, or planetary tides in this case, and electromagnetic disturbances on the Sun's surface.
  8. If you make use of the sorting tool in EMSC, you will find that it is perfectly average for a given magnitude of Earthquakes for a 90-day period. For >m5.5 quakes, which I would consider generally on the higher end of moderate, it's doing 10-11 every week for the last 30 days. I am not seeing a surge in activity using empirical data. I want to add that there have been no EPEAD Electron signaling in correlation to the m7.0+ quakes since GOES-16 took over monitoring duties, which leads me to believe that the instruments on G-15 were extremely sensitive to the Arcjet thrusters used to maneuver the spacecraft during minor orbit adjustments. We shall see however if that changes in the future.
  9. Remember, you use USGS which reports on seismic activity sporadically. The amount of Earthquakes above m4.0 and also above m4.5 have been roughly the same for several months. Use EMSC to verify this. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?
  10. This would require a bit of "crystal ball forecasting" as there isn't any good way to predict the exact point in which the next solar cycle is going to rapidly develop.
  11. Oooh. Hostile now, are you? This attitude doesn't lend itself well to discussing... really anything at all. You've basically presented nothing to read, examine, etc. and yet still insult my intelligence. I really suggest coming up with a thesis for what you are trying to contribute. I clearly have misunderstood at some point. (And if anyone is being a Karen here, it's 100% you...)
  12. The issue isn't "oh this person shuts down ideas that don't fall in line with their own thinking" it's the fact that there is no proposed evidence - no sincere effort on your part to make a point. The fact that the substance of your stance is that the Sun influences weather, and yet you can't explain how or why that is beyond the simple and known facts that it heats up the atmosphere, is why you're being shut down. You can't emotionally sway those who are scientifically literate without real science. I encourage everyone to present new ideas. I do not condone speaking in cryptic shorthand about things you don't understand in the slightest.
  13. Think of it not as a coronal hole, but as a region of the sun that is a bit cooler than its immediate surroundings.
  14. I'm also curious about this. The website also mentions a coronal hole in Earth-facing position, but I cannot see that at all in any of the imagery. Solen.info/solar doesn't show it either.
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