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cosnow last won the day on January 8

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  1. Hi Ron NL, please view the post linked below then scroll down to find my comment for this answer. the short answer is that the data you are looking for doesn’t exist right now. The most recent satellite to measure this was the source sim project - however that was recently decommissioned due to multiple failures over the years. Accurately measuring all wavelengths of solar irradiance from outside our atmosphere holds the key to so many answers but as of now and to my knowledge it does not exist..... the last known data we had for solar irradiance came from: http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/2019/07/15/sorce-operations-extended-to-january-2020/ but that has since been discontinued- with the last couple years of data corrupted as it fell further into the atmosphere.
  2. In regards to “failure to contain” - I agree with @ChristopherS in that cosmic rays wouldn’t play a part In the R naught value. But I suppose there is potential for them to have been involved with the original manifestation/mutation (or ongoing mutations for that matter). I think another, and potentially much greater, factor to consider is the ozone level. It is widely cited that an active sun with high levels of flaring can lower ozone levels. Ozone filters out most of the UV reaching earth - so at this minimum with higher levels of ozone - less UV is reaching the earth. I.e low solar activity = more ozone. UV is very effective at killing viruses etc - so less of it (due to higher O3) means viruses have a higher R value as they can live longer.. So maybe the two CR+O3 play some type of combined role in all of this.
  3. With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out? (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe ) could also indicate an increase in albedo as well. We also have the following going on right now: * Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans). Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure. * An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere. * Close to record levels of Cosmic rays. — If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects. So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum.
  4. I don’t think F10.7 matters to earth At all - but I think that UV and infrared irradiance levels matter greatly.. My thought is that UV is both a function of point/level in solar cycle (longer duration = lower UV level, ie less overall energy) and reduced even further at minimum by lack of solar activity/wind allowing O3 to flourish which further shields earth from UV. This reduction of super high energy reduces the ability of ice to melt and water to evaporate regardless of infrared/heat level.. ie reduces matter from changing state - which requires high energy above all else. Historically people have always said heat/infrared was the primary driver - but I think UV has a larger role then anyone has previously documented. Unfortunately, we do not have, and have not had for 10 years, (Source/Sim was decommissioned and was otherwise failing for the last 10 years) a way to accurately measure irradiance at different spectrums to prove this (crazy that we don’t..).. which also means no way to accurately measure earths energy balance during that time period either. As not all irradiance is equal.
  5. Hi theartist, Amazing work on this! Personally find your work inspiring and reminds me of what science can and should be. A couple of questions /comments on this: 1) Silso has the cycles broken out into larger Characteristic groups of 8 solar cycles which make a larger characteristic trend. The first 8 solar cycles presumably had short cycles (yellow), cycles 8 through 15 had long cycles (blue), cycles 16 through 23 had short cycles (yellow), and 24 through 31 will have (if they follow trend) longer then average cycles. This observed trend exactly supports your theory that SC 9 is similar to SC25 and SC8 is equivalent to SC24. As they are cycle 1 and 2 of this larger and newest (blue color coded) 8 cycle Characteristic trend. Really just not enough observed data (would need thousands of years) to have statistical significance though. Thoughts based on this limited data? 2) My second question on this is really just an image that pops up into mind from your work. I tend to see this planetary clocking thesis as having parallels to classical electricity generation here on earth. With the motion of planets and really the universe as a whole providing the kinetic energy (moving of magnets) from which our favorite and life giving electron (aka sun) partially converts to variances in electromagnetic energy. So when the motion is slower our electron generates less (longer solar cycles) and when the motion is greater it generates more (faster solar cycles). Again would love to hear your thoughts on this. Hi theartist - 16/2 = 8.... Based on your most recent findings this seems to fit well with the characteristic trend (Silso trend classification) of a larger full trend. 8 “positive/south” cycles and 8 “negative/north” cycles. Flipping each 8 cycles? Not sure which is longer in duration though - would depend on total universe kinetic energy during the larger 8 cycle trend. so much we don’t know (I admit to stretching logic in this specific thought - really late here - but not the previous/earlier points in this post). Apologies in advance.
  6. I’ve observed this as well - mostly with the night sky though (typically don’t stare at the sun much). When walking my dog at night - the stars/moon/planets have appeared to be incredibly more vibrant and distinct then I ever remember from my suburban well-lighted neighborhood setting. I used to have to be camping in the mountains for such amazing unaided viewing of the night sky. I can even pick up the reddish tint of Betelgeuse (again in a well lit neighborhood setting). My theory for this is either much less Atmospheric pollution/smog (urban lighting has only increased from my observation setting though) or that the extreme cooling of the thermosphere In the last few months (and maybe stratosphere) has condensed the atmosphere. So less atmosphere to look through?? reference:
  7. Hi theartist, I’m not at a computer so can’t reply in detail - anyways the passing through of the HCS theory is/was mentioned on the front page of spaceweather.com. Currently it’s still there but I’m guessing will be replaced by a new observation at some point in the next day. Yeah you are correct in regards to the Oulu data, not as high as feb 2009 - I had been looking at some ballon data - will try to find the link later. Apologize for that one. Will try to do some actual research on a few combinations of the above listed and see if anything jumps out before adding anything more.
  8. This one should really have been labeled as occurring on the 4th of January - if you view the above graph for the past 7 days instead of 3 days this becomes more apparent. When only viewing the 3 day chart it does look more like the effects of the small coronal hole. On my phone right now - so not able to include the 7 day chart of this right now.
  9. I woke up this morning seeing the additional and far stronger quakes hit Puerto Rico this morning and felt my original post as being insensitive- want to send out my condolences and prayers to anyone affected. (At the time of my original post the largest had been a 5.4 - with only minor building damage). An additional event: 6-January: It has been suggested that the earth passed through a Heliospheric current sheet on this day - contributing to the unique geomagnetic activity observed on the 6th. Ref: http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/HCS.html
  10. Hi SpaceWeatherLive team - As a recent armchair hobbyist researcher of Space Weather - and after reading much of the recent research on this forum - I noticed a large number of events converging this upcoming weekend. I've attempted to list them all (at least known) below with as accurate sources as possible (please add to this list!). Many of these are sourced from the forum topic (SEM earthquake triggers) - for which I reference the member handle as the source. This list is a mix of recent observation data, individual unproven hypothesis, and current accepted theories (I do not distinguish between - so any/all disclaimers apply.. - this list is intended for discussion only). - and with that I present the following: Upcoming Space Weather Events for the weekend: 9-January: Invariable Plane. The Earth passes through the Invariable plane around January 9th . This has been theorized to account for an increase in radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds. Source: Milankovitch cycles (Wikipedia). This may amplify the affect of the current space age record amount of GCR's currently reaching earth - and the theory of associated earthquakes and volcanic activity during this occurrence. (We may also see an increase of cloud/water vapor during this period). 9-January: Potential increase in solar winds. A new solar wind stream is expected to hit on 9-Jan from the new solar hotspot emerging at the solar equator today/tomorrow. (density unknown). 10-January & 11-January: Full Moon (Some have associated full moons with increased earthquake and volcanic activity) 10-January: Penumbral Lunar Eclipse (a potential for enhanced increased seismic activity?) 12-January: From member @Jenn from the forum topic referenced above - "When reading interpretations for the 12th of Jan it literally says the earth moves on this day. 😳 So you can imagine.. When reading a natives birth chart to them I skip over that part". 12-January: Heliocentric Conjunction. @theartist "The heliocentric conjunction (~at midnight) on Jan12 is for Earth-Mercury-Saturn-Pluto. That conjunction setup one second before midnight on 12-Jan-2020 is depicted in the following image" (from the SEM earthquake forum thread). (Me: this is extremely insightful - please research @theartist's work on planetary clocking). 12-January: Saturn Conjunct Pluto January 12. @JennSaturn conjunct Pluto is a major planetary occurring on average every 34 years. The last conjunction was in November 1982 and the next is in January 2020. @theartist is best to comment on this as it has both earth and sun influences. 9-January to 12-January: 8 Potentially Hazardous Asteroids pass close to earth. Unknown geomag effects. Coinciding/Supporting Events: Current - Jan 2020: Deep Solar Minimum - We are currently in a deep solar minimum. Many sun-earth phenomena are associated with this status. (Source: this site and all others). Current - Jan 2020: Space age record high for Galactic cosmic rays - An increase in cosmic rays has often been associated with increased earthquake and volcanic activity on earth. Current - Jan 2020: Space age record low temperature for the theromospheric climate index - potentially contributing in the "once-in-a lifetime" polar stratospheric cloud phenomena. Leading events: January 5th and 6th: Solar Wind Density variability - solar wind density during this time period greatly fluctuated and dropped to extremely low values on the 4th, 5th, and 6th of  January (select 7-day option from link to view). January 6th: Unexpected geomagnetic storms developed in the absence of high solar winds and density (resulting in unexpected yet amazing aurora phenomena on this day) . This can seen seen here (select 1/6/2020). A G2 storm was reported in the absence of increased solar wind/density. Reportedly this was due to a crack in the earth's magnetic field - allowing the very low level of solar wind (and basically zero density solar wind) to flow through and create the observed aurora. (or maybe this was instead the contribution of high GCR's and invariable plane debris?). January 6th: Large earthquakes in Pueto Rico (Reported by weather.com and all Mainstream media). From forum member @goldminor "Earlier I had mentioned that over the years of observing the daily quake map I had formed the opinion that the Puerto Rico/Virgin Island area represents a tell, to use a term from the poker table." .... Well today was that tell? Thoughts? Ah - anyways I have more to add/edit to this thread but ran out of time for now. Will hopefully be able to add to this tomorrow - hoping others can add to or comment on this with any thoughts in that time as well. My biased opinion is that this list turns out to a big nothing burger - but the confluence of events is interesting nonetheless.
  11. Thanks TheArtist! I’ve definitely learned a lot reading your posts - so happy to be able to add to the discussion. I also just noticed the following- http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/2019/07/15/sorce-operations-extended-to-january-2020/ Looks like only a few more days to review any data from source.... after this only ground based irradiance data will be available for the foreseeable future (although hope I’m wrong on that)
  12. On a different website I read yesterday the last two sunspot regions (during 24-26 December numbers 2753 and 2754) belonged to SC25 (cited as according to either NOAA or NASA - but when I just looked again those references were removed). A general question to all - did the last two sunspot regions (24-26 December- regions 2753 and 2754) belong to SC24 or to SC25??? This seems important.
  13. I raised the issue of the above graph over on the thread titled, "Solar Minimum per SORCE SIM". That particular frequency is supposed to be "a Red Light frequency used to reveal the magnetic map at the photosphere". Does it not suggest the magnetic field on the solar surface is dramatically plunging in comparison with the SC23 minimum epoch? You stand behind this measurement, NASA? Do you have another source of TSI measurement, waiting in the wings, in the event that instrument is going 'belly-up'? I looked into VIRGO - didn’t find anything other then an old FTP site and an indication it had been turned off a while back to preserve battery life of SOHO. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_and_Heliospheric_Observatory Also - see the response here re: data validity- https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1575-solar-minimum-per-sorce-sim/?do=findComment&comment=11312 Further - SOURCE/XPS and Solstice seem to be less affected then SOURCE/SIM. With XPS reflective of observed cycles - and Solstice somewhat. My overall observation though is that we don’t have any reliable data for irradiance from UV to radio wavelengths (300 nm to 10 cm) as measured outside of the atmosphere. (and to be clear - UV via SOURCE/XPS seems to be mostly accurate as well as 10.7 from earth - it’s jus everything in between that isn’t....) Which is sort of a problem.
  14. We just hit 280 for 2019 - and as I’ve been reading this forum for about a month or so - I believe it was your (the Norwegian) prediction to be at 280 or more in 2019. So 300 in 2020 is as good as it gets. With the two recent SC25 sunspot regions appearing in both the north and south (above 32?) on December 24-26 - I do have difficulty seeing any new regions appear at the mid latitudes.. over the next year? Wouldn’t this break historic trends? Or were the last two remnants from 24 and not truly part of SC25??
  15. I'm leaning towards #3 for the following reasons: a) If you review all of the other wavelengths (stepping through at 50 nm increments speeds this up) - you notice many significant trend changes (that don't make sense) after the battery issues between July 2013 and Feb 2014 (during which time SOURCE was completely offline). There are also apparent (but less significant) shifts in some of the data after power cycling started around May 2011 (after this time source was turned off during the eclipse part of an orbit - which most likely affected calibration). b) There are some major and abrupt shifts in trends between certain wavelengths - typically the changes between wavelengths (as you step through) are gradual - almost wave like in nature. To see this review a wavelength of 947.35 nm and compare to 1000.59 nm with the time series option at -> http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_ssi_l3/ . (my only explanation here is the low earth orbit - and my only 'far out' guess at this point is that maybe the data has been affected by some type of absorption band in low earth orbit that affects this range more then others and is increasing with time - possibly some type of absorption bands explain what i'm terming as waves above). c) There is no other data to compare to - the closet was virgo which as far as I can tell has been offline since 2008. d) The instrumentation is just old at this point. So while this data seems like an amazing resource at first (and the only of it's kind ~ eh why is that) - I don't think it can be trusted.
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