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Capricopia

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Capricopia last won the day on August 6

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About Capricopia

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    Western Australia
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    Farming, climate, solar cycles

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  1. Doesn't the strength of Earth's magnetosphere have some influence on how the CME/solar wind impacts earth? My understanding is that during solar minimum our "shields" are weaker and any incoming space weather directed at us is less likely to be diverted.
  2. @goldminor I like your theory. I am summarising it as I understand it (engineer not an astronomer/solar physicist) when the sun has more activity in a particular hemisphere, more energy arrives on earth and warms oceans and vice versa. This paper from NASA explains the 40 year cycle https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/plasma-flow.html This paper shows the PDO going back to 1900 so you can see the previous flip from warm to cool. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ This shows the correlation between PDO and temps https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/isolate:240/mean:60/scale:14/from:1918/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1918/isolate:240/mean:60 PDO mean over 20 years https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo/mean:240 AMO mean over 20 years https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/mean:240 and unadjusted temperatures in iceland at the end of the ocean circulation belt https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v3.cgi Obviously the oceans have a huge thermal capacity and would lag any inbound influence by at least 20 years Then someone just has to show how the major planets influence the sun and their cycles and this adds into the interplanetary clocking system that someone explored earlier this year. Of course as scientists we know correlation does not equal causation and it could all be an interesting coincidence... Scott Rose has used the data from SILSO on hemispheric counts and correlated them to ENSO region 3.4. and shown correlation with North atlantic temps
  3. SILSO have just updated their spotless days projections and said "The current projection of a high total number of spotless days makes it more likely that SC25 will be a low amplitude cycle." http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
  4. Dr Keith Strong in a video released today has just done some analysis on the correlation between spotless days and the scale of the next maximum and his results would be at odds with this study. Both NOAA and SILSO are predicting minimum conditions - below 25 smoothed sunspots - until at least November or December 2021, which would provide a forecast of 120 +/- 30...
  5. Have you seen they have added a forecast to https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle that is based on the Panel forecast... With the continuing low activity, I would suggest the speed of the rise they are predicting to get to their "target" of 115 looks very optimistic, especially when you look at all the forecast models at SILSO http://www.sidc.be/silso/forecasts which have all been revised down, some more than others... http://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm
  6. Fascinating and an interesting theory. AA Hady had previously "matched" the rise/amplitute of SC 22,23 and 24 to SC 3,4 and 5 leading into the Dalton Minimum speculating that SC25 would follow the trend of SC6. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257736762_Deep_solar_minimum_and_global_climate_changes If you have not already, could you please look at the alignments at that time? I found this paper had the best illustration of the Gleissberg, De Vries, Eddy and others as an introduction to the cycles for us newbies. http://euanmearns.com/periodicities-in-solar-variability-and-climate-change-a-simple-model/ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50210
  7. SIlso have just updated their data on spotless days and forecast for SC2425 transition. http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
  8. Thanks for try to clarify some of my statements 🙂 It was euphemistic sarcasm, the ramp up in Sunspot numbers does not look feasible when compared to previous cycles, based on the emerging length and depth of this minimum. I am purely an amateur, but to my engineers eye, it just looks wrong for a natural process, especially when compared to SILSO standard Curves which has proved to be more in line over the last year ... I actually referfenced the turn of the century and meant the period from 1870-1910 when the solar cycles were mostly >11.5 with 800-1000 spotless days compared to the later part of the 20th century when most cycles were <10.6 with under 300 days. There is a good colourful illustration on SILSO spotless page, but their "Note there's no obvious correlation between the total number of spotless days and the subsequent solar cycle maximum (r2=0.35)." seems to be at odds with this study https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/604667 that says
  9. NOAA and NASA are showing very different forecasts for SSN and 10.7cm radio flux. The difference is most obvious in the SSN where NASA seem very "optimistic" with their modelling curves for SSN, less so for radio flux which is closer to NOAA. 2019 has just bumped 1878 into 4th place with 2019 now in 3rd behind 1901 and 1913 adding more weight to the argument that we are heading for the longer solar cycles at the turn of the century with this minimum having 900+ spotless days. I am supporting The Norwegian in their forecast for a later rather than a sooner Nadir. https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar/ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless
  10. And there was a series of small quakes near Mt Rainier over the last 6 days... https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/mount_rainier-earthquakes.html
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