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goldminor

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goldminor last won the day on June 29

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About goldminor

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    climate related material including related solar interactions with the climate.

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  1. I noticed the same thing earlier today using USGS. The weekly rate for 4.5 or greater global quakes was average. I should have looked prior to commenting. Thanks.
  2. I occasionally look at EMSC. Both sites show the same for the larger quakes, which is what caught my attention. You are correct though on the difference. I noted the same many years ago. What I find of interest which led to my comment the other day is that in examining strong historical quakes and what jsOrrerey shows for the planetary alignment at the time of these larger quakes I have found a number of examples which show similar alignments of multiple planets sitting in a string of approximate alignment in a given sector of space. Similar to the current string of 7 planets lined up as shown on jsOrrerey. The planet had been fairly quiet for quake activity since February until this past 5 days.
  3. The last 5 days have been above average for stronger quakes around the world. I wonder if the current planetary configuration has something to do with this spike in large quakes. Seven of the planets are are roughly lined up in the same sector of space. ... https://mgvez.github.io/jsorrery/ The planet has been mostly quiet for a number of months until this last week. This also took place at the New Moon which imo is a contributor to seeing larger quakes.
  4. Iceland was hit with a 6.0 about 5 hours ago along with 4 lesser quakes. History does show that large eruptions often go hand in hand with a solar cool trend/gsm. A large eruption at this point in time could be the type of natural event which initiates a grand solar minimum, when it coincides with a solar cooling trend. That could be the difference between a 15+ year cool trend, and a 30+ year deeper cool trend.
  5. Speaking of a changing climate, Iceland just got hit with a powerful 5.7 quake and several other above 5.0 quakes. Along with a swarm of over 500 quakes today, ... https://earthquake-report.com/2020/06/20/moderate-earthquake-iceland-region-june-20-2020/ An Icelandic volcano could change the climate.
  6. I am wondering what this longish cycle will mean for my solar/West Coast flood concept? The last 3 flood winters struck in 2016/17, 2006/07, and 1996/97. Note the correlation with solar minima. So the Big Question "Will the next flood winter be 2026/27? If so then that means that spotless trends will show up in late 2026, similar to 2016/17. The 3.4 ENSO region will move into negative numbers, or deeper if already negative. That would point to a shorter then average cycle for SC25. I am uncertain though on what happens next in that in the past these well above average rain systems have occurred at a 9 year interval within the range of being at or close to the actual minimum. I also see examples where the flood cycle lengthens to 11+ years. It makes sense in a way as otherwise the flood cycle would move out of phase with the solar minimum. That does not happen, and whatever length the cycle sets at there will then be multiple iterations of the cycle for 9/10/11+ years, similar to 1964/65, 1955/56, while 1946/47 was a weak flood winter a year after the minimum, but during a sudden drop in sunspots after an early high spike in the count.
  7. @ The Atmosphere Guy ... That looks very interesting, and useful for me. I could use a good overview such as yours to help me round out my thoughts. I have been reading/thinking climate related material since the second half of 2008. I started on this path knowing next to nothing about the workings of the many interacting parts which form the climate of our planet. I stuck with it through all of these years because of one tiny fragment of knowledge of a possible Pacific Northwest solar induced flood cycle. I knew of this because I loved fishing, especially fishing for steelhead in the rivers and streams of Northern California. So when I saw a sunspot chart for the very first time around late 2008 it only took my inner mind around 3 or 4 seconds to realize that the two major West Coast floods of 1955/56 and 1964/65 occurred during the solar minimum, and that forever hooked me on spending the remainder of my life following this trail. The concept of mine mentioned above is where the path led me to over the last 12 years.
  8. Here is how I would explain it using my solar/enso/atmosphere concept. At the beginning of 2002 excess sunspots are in the southern hemisphere. Approximately 4 months after that the MEI shows that a strong El Nino develops in the 3.4 region. Coinciding with all of that Silso shows a rapid rise in sunspots from a low which is close to minimum point in early 2003 (Feb/March) to a peak above 150 by May/June. I would bet that this is the cause of the European heatwave. ... Here is a second example of a similar episode. In this case a heat wave (experienced by me at age 7) which took place in Northern California. This occurs in the summer of 1957 during the cool trend from 1946/47 to 1976/77. The year 1957 sees sunspots soar to an all time max. Note that slim sliver of red on Silso's chart above. In the 3.4 region a negative ENSO gives way to a a strong El Nino as excess sunspots shift into the southern hemisphere in late 1956. Once again note the lag between the shift in sunspots and the MEI showing the change to positive values. The end result is a scorcher of a summer in Northern California with weeks of triple digit temps, peak temps may have been 117 F. Amazingly, all records of that heat wave are lost to time for some reason. Note how excess sunspots revert back to the north in the late 1950s which sets up deep drops in temps in the 3.4 region, and the cold spell of the 1960s.
  9. I have noticed something similar when researching the temperature history of different cities/locales around the world. What was apparent was that record high temps for a location would often be followed by record lows in the same season.
  10. I think that is why we are currently seeing these continuous stream of storms popping up in the Pacific. Here in Northern California the rains keep moving in off of the Pacific. It rained last night, and for about 1/4 of the month of May. Tonight temps are going to drop to around freezing. The record from 1914 is 29 F. Might get some snow tonight. The current forecast has extensive cloud cover through the middle of the month, at least. Several more days of rain is forecast for 4 days from now. On the bright side the fire danger is minimal, and the blackberry season will be amazing this year. This is what the Indians would call blackberry rains. ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-154.00,46.71,827/loc=-141.762,43.140 The cloud cover in both hemispheres looks well above average to my eye. The question is "Is there more to this than just the current solar minimum effects?".
  11. You replied as expected. Nice going. A bit flowery with the opening though. I thought that this was a site for science discussion, even if one disagrees with what is being proposed. So no nice chat over an aged Bordeaux, and I am no aristocrat. I stated clearly and simply what I consider to be an overlooked/unseen important aspect of what drives the climate of the planet. My forecast which I made at the beginning of February actually was formed back in December. I made a comment on Feb 1st presenting the forecast in a simple statement . My forecast was 100% right, as can be seen by looking at actual temp change in the 3.4 region. Note that NOAAs primary forecast for 60% neutral through the end of the summer was a total miss when the 3.4 region dropped down to -0.6C over the course of the last week. It has since bumped back up a few tenths. Here is more on how I have derived my thoughts, ... https://goldminor.wordpress.com/2020/01/17/sun-enso-atmospheric-temps-correlation/ I plan to prove through the course of this year that I can accurately forecast temp shifts in the 3.4 region. It is my only way to show others that what I have seen is correct. I do not have the science and mathematical background to speak in terms which would be more understandable. What I do have is 12 years of reading climate science related material, and putting my mind to work sorting out the puzzles. I am equipped in that regard with a well above average mentality, and a great inner curiosity. So I am a bit proud of my initial success at getting this first part of the forecast. Therefore I speak out, and add further thought. Right? I mean just how effective would it be if I came out to claim that I successfully forecast last weeks weather?
  12. Negative ENSO conditions have rapidly bloomed since the end of April. I forecast this to happen on Feb 1st with a simple forecast that ENSO 3.4 will reach zero, or move into negative numbers by April/May. The WMO and NOAA at the same time forecast a 60% chance of ENSO neutral through the end of the summer, a 30% of El Nino later in the year, and a 10% chance for a La Nina later in the year. Which forecast was most accurate? That forecast of mine is based on the connection which I see between placement of excess sunspots favoring one hemisphere over the other. Imo, sunspots will increase in the second half of this year as I also stated back in December. As the new sunspot count rises it will cause temps in the ENSO region to plummet even further. This will go hand in hand with the sunspots sitting mainly in the northern hemisphere. The upcoming La Nina should last for a minimum of 2 years. It will be long and deep, and it will cause global temps as seen in the satellite graphs, RSS and UAH, to drop into negative numbers by the end of the year for the first time since 2010/11. There goes NOAA's forecast for 2020 to be another high temp year. The current deflation of the upper atmosphere can be observed in current temps across the Himalaya Mt range, imo. Those temps have currently been lower than on average for this time of year as compared to at least the last several years for which I have saved daily pics of. This is the current look. The region just started warming up bout 4 days ago. I would estimate that the delay in warming is around 3 to 4 weeks compared to previous years. Also of interest is the atmospheric and temp changes from 500 hPa and higher. I read the changes as signs of steady cooling. ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=92.84,40.07,672/loc=94.312,32.534
  13. I took ill in late November with unusual effects. I wasn't even sure if I was sick at times. Then in mid December my heart was stressed by whatever it was affecting me. At the same time my brother 300 miles to the south of me ended up in the hospital for a week with a heart attack. His son also had the worst flu of his life in late November. A number of people up here in the mountains where I live also said they had severe cases of the flu back in November. So there is further confirmation for some of what you are saying. I would like to get tested for the corona virus when the tests become available in my area.
  14. I remember reading a short piece in a sci magazine (maybe New Scientist) around 1995/96 that suggested when the upper atmosphere shrinks during the minimum, or during hemispheric cool trends then that causes extra space dust to enter into the atmosphere. This space dust could potentially enhance the flu/cold season. That does raise the question is this current virus enhanced at this time because current conditions are in a cool trend? The current quiet solar activity is now very similar to the solar effects in play back around 1918/19. Here is an interesting observation. I have a high res solar cycle graph made by Dr Svalgaard. That shows the peak of SC15 early in January of 1918. The flu was being reported as mild at that point in time. Then by mid year of 1918 sunspots had plunged close to minimum levels. May of 1918 was when the Spanish Flu received its name when around 8 million Spaniards dies in that one month. So the question is did that steep drop in sunspots have any effect on the Spanish flu mutation in May of 1918?
  15. There is one big difference between then and now. The Wolf Minimum occurs shortly after the end of the MWP. This current Modern Warm Period will likely run several more centuries before giving way to the next Cool Period. So I would think that the chances for such a steep drop would be small. Although there is one such example which can be seen around 1130 AD. This graph clearly depicts a steep and rapid temp decline right in the middle of the MWP, which is equivalent to where we are now. ... https://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg
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