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goldminor

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goldminor last won the day on January 7

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About goldminor

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    climate related material including related solar interactions with the climate.

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  1. Imo, the quake swarms at Mayotte are an indicator of activity in the South African Magnetic Anomaly. I also think that the SAMA has correlation with the Great Cascadia Quake history/mega quakes. This is long term cycles though. I have come to give consideration to the idea that this current Modern Warm Period (long term 500+/- year warm cycle) started shortly after the SAMA shifted in the late 1600s. In 1700 the Cascadia fault let go with a mega quake. Global warming asserts itself shortly after that around 1730. My prediction based on that and the rest of the known history is the Warm Period will end around 2150 to 2250 AD. The SAMA will undergo a shift, and the next great quake on the Cascadia should strike shortly after. Then a Cool Period begins which will last around 425 +/- years.. In olden times they were known as Dark Ages. Big question is there a solar influence in magnetic shifts in the SAMA, or is that an earth only magnetic process?
  2. Interesting concept. For one it would make much sense to me that the entirety of the solar system dances together. Each part has consequential effects on the rest of the parts. The sun is the master point.
  3. Here is a thought which I wrote down in late 2015. I thought that both of you might find this of interest. Of special interest, scroll down towards the last paragraphs, and note how well I predicted the course of the rest of SC 24. I point to that as my forecasts/predictions are my only credentials which I have, other than being gifted with a pretty good inner computer. So this is my way of showing that I can see part of the picture. Also of note, I am the only person to ever see the close correlation between excess hemispheric sunspots and temp changes in the ENSO regions. I have always had an odd way, at times, of getting to the heart of a given subject. Over at WUWT I eventually became known as the wiggle matcher. Now I can claim an advanced Wiggle Matcher. ... https://goldminor.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/my-analysis-of-the-sunoceanenso-connection/
  4. That is entirely possible. Can't help but note the low total count for this minimum. There should be another 150 days or more of spotless days, imo.
  5. Here is something which I think is related to your post here. It has to do with the current Oulo graph. This could well be the peak of the gcr count for this minimum. If so it looks like it will be around 2 years from now before we see sunspots around midway to the next max according to the average length of time after the gcr peak.My prediction for sunspots was that they would show up steadily around July/Sept of this year. That is a best guess. One other thought, the polarity of sunspots changes every cycle. Is that why the profile of the Oulo graph changes with each cycle? Starting with the first peak shown on the graph every other cycle shows a similar somewhat pointed peak. Then the other 2 cycles have flat to rounded peaks just like what is currently seen on Oulo. Lastly at theartist, this last weekend from the 10th to the 12th was pretty wild. There were 3 strong volcanic eruptions, and the strongest quake in 100 years in Puerto Rico. The Taal volcano erupted to 55,000 feet. It last erupted in a series from 1965 to 1977. Other major eruptions were in Jan 1911, and May 1754. One thing in common with these 4 quakes is that they all occurred close to or during a solar minimum. The one on 1911 obviously is of interest given its occurrence takes place during that last Gleissberg cycle. So, was this due to planetary alignments such as we had been discussing in the quake post? Makes me wonder what we will see around the 24th of this month.
  6. If our modern electric technology has some effect, then there would be no way at this time to "see" it, imo. I say that as I see our current status of understanding what processes drive the climate as "just beginning to see the picture". I would bet everything I own, which isn't much, that the ever growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a benefit for mankind and all life on Earth. The slight ability of CO2 to cause warmer temps is greatly outweighed by natural climate drivers, ie: oceans, surface winds, cyclical solar influences, undoubtedly some cyclical lunar effects, changes to the Length of Day, probably galactic effects of which we know next to nothing about, and of course Milankovitch effects. I read some comments about the new 5G technology potentially having negative impacts for us, and for animals/birds as well. I heard it as 5G will operate within a frequency which is also used in nature by wildlife, and maybe even have an effect on the human brain. Have we examined this possibility? I trust the person who raised this possibility as being a clear thinking individual, not prone to wild speculation. Plus, his science background is in electronics. Back to the climate, I think that natural factors still dominate the planet's climate system. Over time, nature will prove the agw alarmists wrong. This Warm Period is no different from any of the other previous Warm Periods. I see clues which lead me to believe that above average temps will remain the status quo to around either side of 2200. This last peak of warming over the last 20 years will in the future be seen as the peak of the Modern Warm Period which started in the early 1700s, imo. There should be some occasional short term cooling trends along the way. We are very likely in one right now which will last into the mid 2030s. This latter thought has much to do with why I think that the next NMSZ quake is at hand. I am feeling pretty good. I always ate good food, but I completely changed my diet 22 months ago after the diagnosis. That has been beneficial. Plus, I have been using several natural remedies which I came across from reading up on what confronts me. The nuts and bolts of it was that my kidney function had dropped to 16%. That was always the baseline where doctors would want a patient to start dialysis. Several weeks after being informed of my condition I found new information while reading at the National Kidney Foundation site. There it was stated that the latest understanding in medicine is that doctors should not place patients on dialysis until kidney function drops to 9%. So I cheerfully accepted this new understanding. With my change in diet it could be 10 years or more before I would have to face the prospect of dialysis, and I am not diabetic. I may even make it through the rest of my life like this. Genetically, many in my family tree live into their late 90s. So I might be able to hang on close to 2050 which would be great as I could then see how well my flood/solar/ENSO predictions hold up over the next two to 3 solar cycles.
  7. Now I see why I had that idea. It is a consequence of changes made to the MEI at the end of 2018 which altered the entire history of the MEI. I thought that my memory had failed me. Thus the upper comment. I feel better now. For some reason the new MEI which came out in 4/2019 lessened all of the high peaks, and lengthened all of the cold lows. I note now that the new MEI starts in 1979. That suggests that they have used satellite data only as the basis for the graph, and that would explain most of the changes which I see. That does suggest that under the former method for modeling the MEI my idea still has merit. Here is the last original MEI, and the first new MEI. Note the Great El Nino of 1997/98. It goes from a peak of 3.0 C to a peak of 2.6 C with the new MEI. Plus the twin peaks have been reversed. How did they miss that 20 years ago when they were right there to watch the entire El Nino? Makes me wonder about the process.
  8. For some reason I had it in my mind that the negative ENSO in late 2017/early 2018 was shorter and weaker than it actually was. Now looking at ONI I can see that it came close to -1 C. That puts an end to my idea right there. My focus has been a bit off over the last 22 months. I was told then that I needed to immediately start dialysis. Still thinking about that. The ONI page only goes back to 1950. Is there a longer version? The MEI for 1943/44 looks similar to the ONI at 2017/18. There is a negative dip which crosses -1 C during the course of a year before coming to an end. Then there is that long/strong La Nina prior to SC19, from early 1954 through 1956.
  9. One last observation on quakes for 2019. Early this year I noticed a change in the daily quake pattern which led me to make a comment at WUWT that global quake patterns had changed comparative to the 8 years of my observing the daily quake map. Just today I now see that another change is in progress. The number of global quakes has dropped suddenly, for the third time. The first two times also caught my attention, but the 2 points didn't add up to anything. Now with this 3rd sudden slow down I wonder if there may be something more to this. The first of these quiet times started on 11/30 , 12/1, then Dec12th, 13th, and now the 27th. In between those dates the rate was double to quadruple, as high as 96/24 hours at the peak, but mainly running in the low 40s/24 hours. In 8.5 years of watching I have seen sudden drops, but never a sequence like this. If this sequence continues, then there will be another sudden drop around the 10th to the 12th of January, and again around the new moon on the 24th, or shortly after.
  10. I would assume that the orange line represents Dr Svalgaard's interpretation of the upper boundaries for future solar cycles. This high res graph of his, which he shared in a post on WUWT, aided me greatly in my search for solar/oceans correlation. An interesting turn to the speculation on lunar/quake connections. As the moon neared its alignment between the Earth/Sun, there were 3 strong 5.0+ around Fiji in a 30 minute period from 2:00 to 2:30 UTC, and then the global quake count dropped for the next 4 hours, plus from 9:00 UTC 25 to 6:30 UTC 26 there were only 3 quakes at PR/VI in that 15+ hour period. Quakes at PR/VI have since returned to a higher rate 21/24 hours, plus a larger 4.8 an hour ago.
  11. Here is the extended MEI from Hadley, and I should add Dr Svalgaard's high res ssn graph which ends in 2012. Take for example the minimum at 1995/96. The full MEI shows around 18 months of extended negative ENSO prior to the big El Nino spike after mid 1997. At the minimum of 1985/86 the ENSO had been negative for around 2 years. On the full MEI note how small the negative spike is at 1902/03 and again at 1912/13 which are the two minima on either side of SC14. That is what I am looking at.
  12. Here is a possible clue for determining correlation. Everyone has missed their ENSO forecasts this year, including myself. I expected a La Nina to start to form in the early part of 2019. A handful of others who hold somewhat similar thoughts on the subject had predicted La Nina conditions forming between Sept to Dec of 2019. Around mid summer it occurred to me to search back through the full SC record for any minima periods where a significant La Nina does not form up. To my surprise the answer was yes, and it happened during the last Gleissberg in the early 1900s. At the minimum between SC13 and SC14 the ENSO regions went slightly negative for a short time before leaning positive for the rest of the minimum. And at the end of SC14 the ENSO regions responded the same. All other minima periods correlate with substantial negative trends in the ENSO regions. So my prediction is that this indicates that SC25 will be a weaker cycle because the ENSO region has refused to go more than slightly negative so far, and there is no indication for a La Nina of any strength to set in over the near future. That places the prospect for the next La Nina at the very end of this minimum, or later. Meant to add Happy Holidays, and thanks for that great graph.
  13. I have read through that thread. So how would one know if a Gleissberg cycle was in play? I think that we are in either a Gleissberg or potentially headed towards a Dalton level minimum. I suppose that only time will tell the story once enough years pass to make a better determination of what happened. That is why I expect global temps to drop over the next 16+ years, or at the least move sideways in another pause period from the previous warming trend.
  14. BIG TIME Alert, A larger 6.3 quake just struck at Port Hardy. Now recall my comment from several days ago where I called the 3 large Port Hardy quakes foreshocks. Worse than that, I think this 6.3 is also just a foreshock. It does appear that I had the right thoughts on current quake activity. From the USGS. Looks like planetary alignments are the main ingredient after the moon for triggering large quakes. The GeoMag data is very noisy. That makes it near impossible to ever say that a particular moment of change had an effect which could trigger quakes. It is going to take some time of watching alignments/quakes to get a better understanding of any connections. Have to say that it has my full attention for now as it looks compelling. Not that every quake is triggered in this fashion, but a good number of the largest quakes show correlation.
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