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The Novitiate

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The Novitiate last won the day on July 4

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About The Novitiate

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    Minor flare
  • Birthday 04/03/1951

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    Portland, Maine
  • Interests
    Solar Dynamo Theory, effect of Solar Cycles and ultimately potential for implications on terrestrial climate.

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  1. I apologize. My understanding had been that the transition from One Cycle to the next Cycle occurred during a specific month... but that a solar minimum occurred from the onset of significant spotless days and continued until significant eruptions resumed... that certain minimums were deeper and/or longer than others. I'd assumed one method of approximating the relative depth of a particular minimum was to compare the number of spotless days that occurred in the interlude between maximal SSN. Perhaps. it might be of some interest in comparing the value of the 460 & 215 spotless days in the nadirs bracketing Solar Maximum #19... to the the 800 and potential 1,000+ spotless days bracketing Maximum #24. The Smoothed Monthly maximum for Cycle #19 was 285 on 03/1958 and individual maximum was 359 on 10/1957. Meanwhile, the Smoothed Monthly maximum for Cycle #24 was 116.4 on 04/2014 and individual monthly maximum was 146.1 in 02/2014. I was uncertain whether this was a statistical anomaly. or had some potential correlative relationship?
  2. It would seem that solar minimums are gauged, in large part, by the presence of days without Sunspots. In comparing minimums over the last century tallying the total number of 'Spotless Days' per each cycle. Cycle #14-15 had approximately 1,015 spotless days. Cycle #15-16 = 535. Cycle #16-17 = 580. Cycle #17-18 = 290. Cycle #18-19 = 460. Cycle #19-20 = 215. Cycle #20-21 = 285. Cycle #21-22 = 285. Cycle #22-23 = 315. Cycle #23-24 = 804. Cycle #24-25 = 785 (to this point). If, as Marcel estimated, this minimum lasts till early 2021... It would only require an additional 200 + spotless days to bring the total to approximately 1,000 spotless days. Graphing these points out reveals the gulf of spotless days throughout the 20th century.
  3. The only alternative to "Other" which comes to mind is "Miscellaneous". A little bulkier, not quite as nondescript.
  4. This has been a difficult series of posts. At times Michele's syntax is difficulty to unravel. The thoughts come from many directions and the connecting threads often are not apparent. I'm not an astrophysicist, just a simple neurologist with a background in electrical engineering and a MA in English Literature... looking to comprehend and explore the universe around me. I am more than willing to acknowledge my limitations. Despite these difficulties, I have strained to follow these posts and unravel the content. I have failed to find value here, except Christopher S's openness and generous willingness to engage in an honest dialogue. Wishing all god speed and "A Roaring Borealis." --ejd
  5. Christopher S. You have been remarkably patient and restrained. Michele has made numerous assertions of access to specialized scientific knowledge beyond the strength of being a plant biologist. Yet there is little or no actual data provided behind the astrophysical hypotheses, and certainly no literature citations. The rambling peregrinations of thought, in fact, lack any unifying internal cohesiveness. This is just to note that your kindness and willingness to exchange honestly is quite remarkable and most admirable. --The Novitiate
  6. Great call on the Jan 21-24 Sunspot. SILSO currently rates the Sunspot number at 11. Did you see that it was going to be an SC-24 hold over? Look forward to see what the rest of January looks like.
  7. Hello, Not barge in to an private conversation... but have been fascinated with this string (historically) and found the Svalgaard link invaluable in understanding the context of how the concept of "The Sunspot Number" has evolved. It seems there are different quantities worth measuring. First just a pure number of Sunspots, but secondly the size (surface area) and cluster configuration of the various regions at any given time. An automated counting system, such as theartist proposed is likely where data collection is headed. I'm just imagining a situation where at one time there might be a dozen or more tiny (smaller than earth diameter) Sunspots present on the earth facing surface Vs. another time when there is a gigantic single Sunspot whose dynamic energy release is orders of magnitude greater than the first example. Obviously Sunspot Number is a surrogate marker for Solar Activity but not a precisely interchangeable one. Having looked over the Sunspot rating scales based on Size, Cluster Configuration etc. it begins to feel that historically the Group Number (GSN) attempts to preserve the continuity of information extending back to the end of Maunder, while the Wolfe Number (WSN) is offering a more detailed information set but only since 1849. Both have value and it seems there not be a simple way of reconciling the two and coming up with a unified count which merges the two while preserving the relevant information contained in each.
  8. 1. In referring to THE PANEL's statement that SC25's projection would be comparable to SC24 & "AVERAGE" the intention was to simply state (even to a novice) saying SC24 was AVERAGE was a non-starter. What do they mean? Average compared to what? I believe 'theartist' raised this issue, and my impression was that such a challenge non-clarity was well founded. It was not my intention to make broader or harsher claims or criticisms. The process which guided The Panel's Update seemed rather imprecise or unclear. This led me to attribute my confusion either to my relative lack of scientific sophistication on this subject or to their opaqueness in communicating their rationales. 2. "Please clarify how you came up with a conclusion that TSI ignores Infrared or Ultraviolet" You are correct to question this. In 1972 I took Relativity Physics & Quantum Mechanics working on a BS in EE. My specialty is the treatment of Clinical Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders... hence my screen name. I will attempt to go back and distill the Spotless data onto a spreadsheet and tabulate the annual post minima nadir counts to demonstrate that the drop from 260 (2009) to 48 (2010) is atypical. This may take a few days as the spousal unit is encouraging me to expedite my remodeling the master bathroom suite which is currently in serious disarray.
  9. The graph for 'Spotless Days per Cycle vs. Cycle Amplitude' is very informative in several ways. We are currently at about 645 spotless days for this (24-25) transition. The running total 2004 thru 2010 for the 23-24 transition appears to be 513 thru the end of 2008. Using 'The Norwegian's' estimate of ~265 for 2020 would raise this to about 910. The tentative extrapolation to >950 is based on the comparator of transition 23-24 dropping from 260 in 2009 to 48 in 2010. In reviewing late transition annual data for cycles 7,12,14 & 16 the post peak drop off has not be as precipitous as seen 2009 to 2010. If one uses the post-peak fall of SC7 or SC12 instead of 2010 a projection closer to 1125-1175 can be extrapolated. This would put this transition closer to SC6 or SC7. We do not have reliable Sunspot counts leading into the Maunder, no less the Sporer, minimums... only the Dalton minimum. The descent into Dalton is less steep and certainly less deep measured against both temperature and TSI surrogate markers for Sporer and Maunder. TheArtist's critique of NOAA's projection of SC25 as being the same as SC24 and "AVERAGE" is completely well founded and well argued. Certainly nothing in the Space Age cyclic averages comport with what we've witness over the last 11 years. And certainly nothing in the last century. It also seems that most model use only visible wavelength as the measure of TSI, ignoring both Infrared, Ultraviolet... 2020 will be greatly clarifying in both its predictive and comparator values to previous cycles... but 2021, in many ways, may have even greater value. We then may know better if SC25 is beginning of the GSM many are suggesting, or the last 'Low Normal' Cycle before a truly deep and persistent solar quiescence.
  10. Thanks for you clarifying the details. I remember looking at 2752 on the SDO Magnetogram and searching for it on the Intensitygram-Colored, even at 4096 pixels, not really seeing a spot. It is likely best to side with the SILSO call... though my gut sides with SWPC. Thanks again --ejd
  11. On your 'Home Page' under the 'Space Weather Facts' you list the number of spotless days as 39. When I check the SILSO site of the Royal Belgium Observatory they list the last sunspot occurring on November 13, 2019. Their Stretch of Spotless days is 26. Could you identify the data source for your Spotless Numbers? --The Novitiate
  12. T.Y. I did not notice that one was: SpaceWeather.com And, the other was: SpaceWeatherLive.com I'll stick with the Belgium numbers.
  13. To: The Artist, Thanks for your response. Home Page: https://spaceweather.com/ Right below the image of the blank sun in the upper left hand corner: "Current Conditions" I'm assuming each represents a different source of original data.
  14. To 'The Artist'. Thank you for your excitement and expertise in analyzing this transitionary period. I always look forward to your posts and try my best to absorb as much as my aging brain will permit. There is so much nested & vested political angles in individuals who are more gripped with a narrative than channeling Diogenes. I look forward to seeing where your journey takes you... On a much more simplistic note: Can you tell me why Space Weather has 2 separate "Current Stretch' numbers for spotless days? The Solar Cycle page today says "38". and the Current Conditions homepage says "25"... it's like listening to my airline pilot friend brag about his manhood!! --The Novitiate
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