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The Norwegian

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The Norwegian last won the day on January 12

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About The Norwegian

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    The Sun and climate

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  1. Sorry it took some time before my reply, but I only do this now and then *I don`t see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc. Due to Venus and Mercury align, which might "pull out" sunspots. *Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude. Due to Mercury is on the opposite side of Jupiter, (the tidal effect from Jupiter works both on the side of the sun facing Jupiter, and on the opposite side). However, here is more chanse of H-alpha plages without sunspots, I believe *Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots. Due to Mercury and Earth align, this will "pull out" sunspot on high north latitudes, belonging to SC25. I hope I hope I explained myself understandably. Today 01/24/2020 we can see a tiny, tiny spot Nice work Mr. "theartist"🏆
  2. I dont see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc. Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude. Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots.
  3. I dont beileve that V. Zharkova has stated "this solar minimum ends in 2020", but she has in her video presentations stated that this Grand solar minimum is starting in 2020, and of course her results of principal component analysis of magnetic waves on the Sun, which I believe is caused by Jupiter . Find the results of her results attach below. Image source: Simon J. Shepherd, Sergei I. Zharkov, Valentina V. Zharkova I think you had most of your summary in Place. I would like to add that I also believe that the inclination of both Jupiter and Saturns orbit is what causes the polarity shift from South to North and then back to South to make an full solar cycle (22y). I also will add that if CoG is too far out, or too far into the Sun this may causes minimum. But this is not "written in stone". There are of course other forces that influence this, like the tidalwave force of all four big planets.
  4. As I said before, I do this just as an hobby. This is not my profession! But I will try to answer some of your questions. And once more, my English is not the best, and this is a difficult topic 1. I have of course study all earlier cycles. Compared the dates of all minimums/Maximums back to about 1730 or so, compared this the position of the planets an so on, but this particulare list of data showing the timeline from the first spotless day, to the solar minimum was new to me. 2. I have read several of V. Zharkovas papers, very interesting by the way. I had my idea about Solar system barycenter before I read it in the last paper from Zharkova last summer. According to Zharkovas predictions we will reach solar minimum in 2020, so my prediction stands a less to no chance that this minimum will keep on going 2 more years, but still... 3. I believe that Jupiter has an tidal force effect on the Sun. The Jupiter/Sun "Center of Gravity" is shifting from inside the surface of the sun to outside the surface of the Sun. This has an effect on the strenght to the tidalwave Jupiter is causing on the Sun, which is the force needed to create sunspots. This tidalwave is increasing/decreasing in strenght during an 11 year cycle, and probably in longer cycles too. The Solar system Center of Gravity is also shifting, due to the 4 outer planets, mostly due to Jupiter of course. In 2022 these planets are in a position that they pull Center of Gravity away longest from the sun. (best explanation I managed ) Jupiter, probably Saturn too, has an tidal force on the sun, that causing the innerplanets(I dont now about mars, but..) to "pull" out sunspots. The last 9 mnd Earth, Venus and Mercury has made smaller and smaller sunspots each time they pass either Jupiter, or each other. During Solar Maximum each inner planet "pull out" sunspots, and dont need to combine forces to do so like during Solar minimum. Just like the full moon are causing spring tide on our planet. (The Moon and the Sun are pulling togehter, and make spring tide together ) To make it clear, I dont believe that the actual "point of Gravity" do something, but when this is shifting, the tidalforce caused by Jupiter on the Sun is decreasing/increasing. See printscreen from solar motion simulator showing the path from 2018-2024. To the left you see the large planets and their position.
  5. Yes, thats almost correct. My prediction had nothing to do with this data many cycles back, however, I have been looking at the length of last solar minimum which had 7 full years of spotless days of some kind. And now we have 3.5 years so far in this minimum. Ad that this minimum is predicted to be weaker(Zharkova). My prediction was based on all of this, including barycenter analysis and position of our planets. Without this data for the earlier cycles, that is just data who points in my predictions direction. In my opinion of course.
  6. A while back I predicted that SC24 would reach its minimum by 2021/22. Today I found some interesting data which might support this. In the attached table you can find the time from the first day with spotless sun, up to solar minimum. In particulare SC12-15 is similar with SC23/24. SC23/24 had its first spotless day in january 2004, and reach its minimum in december 2008, about 60 month. This is very similar with SC12 with +/- 66 months from day one with spotless sun to solar minimum. Question is, will this continue in the transit between SC24/25?? And of course, will this trend continue in the following 2 solar cycles? in june 2016 came the first day of spotless sun in the transition between SC24-25. If the trend of +/- 66 months continues, we can expect the current solar minimum to reach its minimum in late 2021. Any thoughts ??
  7. I see that Uranus is in a total different place in its revolution in my simulator compared to yours!! Is it my simulator who is competely "lost in Space"?
  8. Yes, that is one of the issues that can cause the SMN to temporally deviate from an equivalency that is strictly based on the progression/location of advecting photospheric magnetic structures, since not all mag-structures produce sunspots, and if they do, they may not last long if they are magnetically weak. The most interesting thing about an solar minimum is that every change on the solar disc becomes visible. Today we can see the beginning of a tiny spot far south on the solar disc. At the same time Mercury is in line with Saturn. If Saturn also affects the magnetic field of the sun, in respect to sun spots, well then I learned something new today
  9. I think I said between 278-283 days without sunspots. In the days around 15 January 2020 we will be able to get mid-latitudes sunspots. It is not a question of whether they come there, because they do. The question is whether they will be strong enough so that we see them, since we are at a deep minimum now. If I am not mistaken, the sunspots north on the solar disc a few days ago belonged to SC24, not SC25.
  10. So far into the future, with my knowledge and information would only become wild guesses. What I can say, however, is that 2020 will exceed 300 spot-free days. SC25 will be significantly weaker than SC24. Around January 31, 2020 and February 15, 2020, (give or take a few days) which are two dates that should give sun spots. The strength of these could say something about whether we are still on a downward trend or not. The sun spots around January 31 will come in the middle of the solar disk, while February 15, the sun spots will come high on the northern half and probably belong to SC25.
  11. Interesting. The most interesting part is that whatever happening on Betelgeuse that we are watching now, happend 600 years ago
  12. I have to disagree with you in your assumptions with the utmost respect. Background for my assumptions for when the solar minimum is reached I will come back to. It is very likely that the solar minimum will not be reached until the end of 2021. In my opinion, SC24 will last for 13 years.
  13. English language is not my language, so please keep that in mind The theory of cloud formation due to GCR is as follows: During solar maximum, the electromagnetic radiation from the sun compresses Earths own magnetic field and this makes it stronger. While during solar minimum and weak electromagnetic radiation from the sun, the earth's own magnetic field floats outwards thus opening up for more penetration of the GCR. GCR collides with small particles in the atmosphere which in turn creates ionized particles, so-called aerosols, which are particles who water vapor react with, and create water droplets, ie clouds. Henrik Svensmark has worked with this theory in allmost 20 years. See link att below if you want to find out more. I have followed H.S`s work since 2010 and its no doubt. Sun, GCR and cloud formation is linked togheter. Regards volcanoes I have not got into this. But have registered that some claim this. https://principia-scientific.org/top-astrophysicist-warns-of-cosmic-rays-climate-impact/ Picture below relates to what happened during an CME. This is from "The Cloud Mystery"
  14. As I've said before, my knowledge is at "hobby Level". That said, I understand what you're saying, I believe. Whether GCR affects the sun directly is an interesting thought. What we do know is that GCR is increasing by the sun's lower activity with subsequent cloud formation in the earth's atmosphere. Some also believe that volcanoes are affected by increasing GCR. When little Mercury appears to be able to influence the formation of sunspots on our gigantic star, it should not be excluded that the sun can also be affected by an increase in GCR. If I didn't misunderstand you?
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