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The Atmosphere Guy

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About The Atmosphere Guy

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    All things atmospheric.

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  1. The Ap data site I use is here … http://eng.sepc.ac.cn/ApIndex.php ... Examining the data around March 2012 shows well the impact under consideration, but there does not appear to be any repetitive incidents - much like the one August 26 2018, it seems to have been an isolated CME. A good impression of the time scale involved in impact reactions can be seen in the satellite tracking problems chart related to impact 13/14 March 1989 (see https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/dynamic-behaviour/ … ) March seems to be a recurring theme, significant ?
  2. Just for interest, NASA's 'Flurry' refers to a solar impact dated March 8-10 2012; NASA's hurricane archives dated 03.19.12 record as follows :- On Saturday, March 17, 2012, (Cyclone) Lua's center crossed the Australia coastline at Pardoo about 3 p.m. (local time/Australia) bringing winds gusting up to 155 mph (250 kph) and heavy rainfall. Previous forecast March 16, 2012 …. maximum sustained winds were near ...86 mph/139 kph ... forecast to strengthen to ...103.6 mph/166.7 kph ...before making landfall -. A significant increase?
  3. Thanks for the correction. Been doing too much travelling recently, chronic jet lag is taking hold , but glad to see someone is paying attention! Around the end of the month gives us an excellent opportunity to observe - interesting times!
  4. Interesting to note that NASA seems now to favour the idea that SC25 will be the weakest for 200 years. Article here : https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration
  5. There is an opportunity here for some ‘constructive prediction’. Making forecasts is always fraught with danger, the opportunity for professional catastrophe is ever present; however we can look at the information we have and see if we can create something informative. We saw a solar ‘Kp’ impact coincidental with hurricane ‘Dorian’. Will it happen again - will it have an impact - or not? Coronal hole CH935 gave us the observed ‘Kp’ impact; happening like a lighthouse beam, it has sprayed the earth repeatedly, it is due again around 28th October ( Correction - September!!) (although with a new number). Will it be larger or smaller? R-M equinox effect may be relevant. October will still be in the hurricane season, close to autumn equinox; will there be significant surface disturbances active at that time? Will there be an identifiable impact reaction - or not? Will the returning coronal hole be too small to have an effect? Perhaps relevant to note that the Antarctic SSW seems also to have been coincident with the impact. We are starting to see media forecasts of ‘Worst winter for 30 years’. Based on “Spörer’s Law Years” and “R-M” effect we could see a serious drop in solar impact effects around the winter solstice with the associated contraction in the atmospheric structure, pulling activity back towards the equator with large scale polar excursions to the south. The potential for some serious discussion is evident – anyone willing to roll the dice and make a bet? Just for reference, Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina have been mentioned, Hurricane Katrina Originated Aug 23 2005, Rapidly intensifying Aug 26 – There was a large ‘Kp’ spike Aug24 in an otherwise quiet period. (refer Carrington Rotation CR2033) Hurricane Andrew Originated August 16 1992 Rapidly intensified Aug 23. There was a significant ‘Kp’ Spike Aug 23 (Refer Carrington Rotation CR1859).
  6. There is an aspect of this debate that seems rarely considered, yet seems to be there in the data if it is searched doggedly enough. It is well established that the Thermosphere Climate Index has been declining steadily, basically since the 1960’s, as indeed has the International Sunspot Number. There are records of the temperature and pressure structure of the atmosphere going back many decades. https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/historical-charts/ may be of interest. The area for discussion rests around the relevance of ‘Deep Atmosphere’ behaviour to surface temperature. Basically as the atmosphere as a whole cools and contracts, the temperature and pressure patterns pull back towards the equator. This allows cyclonic weather structures to pick up tropical warm air and throw it unusually far north, (the alternating sea / land structure is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere exacerbating this effect in the north) giving the impression of warming. Such heat will dissipate naturally via entropic action giving an overall cooling to the planet. Thoughts?
  7. Firstly can I apologise if some of my paraphrasing was a little over simplistic, one tends to get that way sometimes! Perhaps I may best recommend a study of the data outlined in ‘Solar Activity and Surface Climate’ section together with that on ‘Storm Analysis’. This, again, is a condensation of years of research in this area, much of which goes against many of the established warming theories. I would be delighted if you would produce your own charts supporting or refuting the conclusions in those sections. We can see that the data closely correlates the effect of influence and response, far too commonly to be mere coincidence, although it is self evident that the precise mechanism is open to conjecture. When I referred to ‘Generally high or low’, it is fairly well established that over each solar cycle, heating, expansion and cooling is an accepted phenomenon, perhaps best related to the TC index. Background levels refer to the ‘Non-explosive’ Ap/Kp activity. We have, for example, seen a very low background level until the explosive impact of the end of August – as you may see in the Ap Forecast chart. The term ‘Atmospheric profiles’ refers to both thermal and pressure profiles as measured in the atmosphere charts used. These can be seen to respond in an almost ‘tide like’ action under the influence of Kp/Ap activity.
  8. Good Question! The equinoctial effect you mention is commonly known as “Russell-Mcpherron” effect whereby activity is known to be high at the equinoxes, dipping low at the solstices; however when the ‘Kp’ is generally high, the atmosphere overall is generally more ‘puffed up’ (good for clearing satellite junk!) atmospheric profiles are steeper and individual impacts less noticeable, less effective and atmospheric profiles become the principle steering influence in storm activity. Whereas when background levels are generally low the effect of a sudden major impact is far greater and ‘coastal interaction’ becomes the principle steering influence. Both of these factors can be seen in the behaviour of “Dorian” which is likely to stall as it encounters the Florida coast then follow the coastline north. The site http://eng.sepc.ac.cn/ApForecast.php gives a good impression of the level of impact, while the general subject is discussed in https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/ The coincidence between solar equinox effect and the surface climate being just in the right, late summer, condition for storm formation will always raise the risk. This risk may be raised at solar minimum when CH outbursts are more significant.
  9. Some fascinating stuff in this data, though after a lot of playing with the it, I tend to stick to the ‘30 year’ concept. As is usually the case in these areas, restricted data availability pushes any assessment into realms where mental gymnastics and the imagination become ones primary tools. Clearly, there are several cycles at work here and the further back we try to push things the more they seem to come unstuck! Just as an aside, I have opened a new topic on the link between Solar ‘Kp’ impacts and the development and acceleration of tropical storm structures. – Any thoughts ?
  10. I have been doing some work on the link between Solar ‘Kp’ impacts and the development and acceleration of tropical storm structures. (discussed here ... https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/storm-analysis/ ) This has been dramatically highlighted with ‘Kp’ impact 31st Aug. /1st Sep. and the behaviour of “Dorian” and “Juliet” – Any thoughts ?
  11. A very constructive piece of work! We can note within the extended chart that the deep dip around 1901/3 would seem to be in line with the ‘30 year’ concept. If this holds true we could possibly anticipate the next deep point to be around 2030/31; i.e. the end of cycle 25 and in line with the NOAA/NASA preliminary forecasts. The chart also seems to display an almost sinusoidal underlying shape to the graph seemingly implying that we are now into the down-slope of the half cycle stretching back to around 1900. This would seem to re-iterate the impression given by the ‘Butterfly Chart’. The size and shape of SC24 on the chart is not dissimilar to that of SC15. Would it be stretching things a bit to guess that SC25 will be similar to SC14, following the ‘Half Cycle’ concept and leading us to the 2031 deep dip? On that basis we may assume that the defined SC24/SC25 minimum would be ‘about now’ and that the shape of SC25 being reasonably close to SC14, this would put us very close to the NOAA preliminary forecast. May I make use of your Chart?
  12. My Pleasure - Glad to assist! This chart shows, perhaps even more clearly than the rough ones I used , the shallow 30 year cycle bottoming in 1935, 1965/6 and 1997/8 and the tendency for ‘Ap’ to bottom out in the year or two immediately following solar minimum. These are aspects that appear to be rarely, if ever, openly discussed. Just what happens now is open to wild speculation. Just a bump in the road and then back to normal? Or did we blow a gasket in 2003 and the engine is running down? Guess you just have to roll the dice!
  13. There is little doubt that the current cycle structure is somewhat unusual; determining the start/finish points may present some unusual challenges. We can see from the Butterfly Diagram that the quiet period between cycles 23 and 24 is rather quieter than any period since the early 1900’s and initial assessment of this factor would indicate that the period between 24 and 25 may be even quieter. However, perhaps a better indicator of the unusual nature of the present situation may be obtained from analysis of the ‘Ap’ data, which shows up some highly anomalous behaviour over the last cycle. This behaviour, if continued, could make cycle 25 more than a little ‘different’. If I may offer https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/ap-index-historical-analysis/ this may give some insight into the situation.
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