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The Atmosphere Guy

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The Atmosphere Guy last won the day on December 9 2019

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  1. Try the following, which gives interactive, accessible data = http://flux.phys.uit.no/geomag.html : Data for the last 24 hrs = http://flux.phys.uit.no/Last24/ I find it highly useable.
  2. This certainly does reinforce the idea that something very different is happening; North and South seem to be unusually far out of step, perhaps increasingly so since around 2002/3. The peaks of SC24 differing significantly and now apparently a very different bottoming. Will South stay zeroed until North achieves that bottom level or do its own thing? If it does stay flat, that could give us the long, extended minimum that has been predicted. I took the liberty of stitching together the two parts of your chart to get an overall visual impression of the data. Added to your ideas, one can see that higher latitude activity seems much reduced and more diffuse SC24 compared to SC23, again reinforcing the idea of possible dynamo related activity reducing overall turbulence. Combining these two concepts, plus the changes we have already discussed, should imply a change of base-line state – but that is pure speculation. Can I take this opportunity of wishing Seasons Greetings to all, and very best wishes for the New Year and indeed, the New Decade !
  3. Quite agree, the red lines are never to be taken too seriously, they just give a general idea of the outline thinking. The aspect I am interested in are the actual measurements, in particular my old favourite the 'Ap' index. As predicted above, this has now been released for November and has been set at 4 Almost certainly - unless something dramatic happens - this will be '3' or even '2' for December which would put us into 2009/10 territory.
  4. Haven’t been able to track down any update on that density chart; however, in absence of a specific pressure/density measurement, the Thermosphere Climate Index together with the Ap index give us a general indication of what is happening up there. It is possible, though perhaps a bit speculative, to make the assumption that the Ap index for the period, being a measure of the solar activity impact on the geo environment, gives us a picture of what the sun is - or was - doing; the NASA density measurement tells us what impact that has on the earth’s atmosphere – at least at upper levels – and the ‘Snowmageddon’ records tell us what impact that had at surface level. Projecting that forward tends to support theories that the current projected slowdown could have significant climatological impacts. We can only wait and see. Boulder CO’s Solar Cycle Progression figures should be released in the next day or two which should give some interesting pointers. Give my regards to Nashville, was there, plus Knoxville, Memphis last month – Great place, beautiful area!
  5. There is an interesting paper by NASA going back to 2010 here … " A puzzling Collapse in the earth's upper atmosphere" https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere wherein they express surprise at the 2009 'anomaly' we have discussed …. This is the thermosphere density, rather than the 'Ap' we have discussed, however it is always 'entertaining' when the experts admit to puzzlement!
  6. The ‘K’ index (and its ‘A’ derivatives) is defined as, in essence, a mathematical representation of the intensity of the impact of solar storm energies – in all of the various forms – on the earthly environment. That would include both CMEs from sunspots and the solar wind, so a variation in flow pressure/velocity and density – such as that from a coronal hole or similar disturbance would be measured as a variation in Ap. Your graphs do show what appears to be a general slowdown, in addition to the 2003 surge and Halloween Storm followed by the ‘03/’09 drop off. We seem to have an interesting position just at the moment, Solar wind is weak, the sun is spotless, TC index is declining steadily, coronal hole activity is fading – is this the calm before the storm, or a continued run-down? Ap levels are likely to be even lower than my earlier guess possibly now 4 and then 3, depending how Boulder chooses to round the figures – up or down.
  7. Your thinking is much along the same lines as my own and is well supported by the data. The potential for an extended minimum seems to show up in all of the data; the ‘Ap’ environment seems to be stuck in a ‘pre-minimum’ zone slightly above where one might expect it to have descended to, the ‘lighthouse’ CH structure going round like a stuck record. This seems to be supported by the TSI chart. There is an interesting paper by Lisa Upton and David Hathaway; I quote from the summary: “After the exceptionally weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24), there is considerable interest in accurately predicting the amplitude of the coming Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). In 2016, the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) Model was used to make such a prediction. We now have two additional years of solar data. Here we compare the results of the previous prediction to the observations that have since occurred. We then use the additional two years of data to create an updated prediction, with a much smaller uncertainty. We predict that SC25 will be about slightly smaller (∼95%) (than) the strength of SC24, making it the weakest solar cycle in the last hundred years. We also predict that, like SC24, SC25 will be preceded by a long extended solar minimum. Finally, these results indicate that we are now in the midst of a Modern Gleissberg Minimum”. The “...long extended solar minimum....” being particularly relevant.
  8. My principle concern is the sudden anomalous drop in the 'Ap' chart that was noted at the start of this thread. That, coupled with the apparent 'wind down' evident from 2003, is I would suggest, unparalleled in our data. If that turns out to be a temporary aberration and we revert to something more representative of previous states I would consider that a "return to normal". If, as seems an alternative, that represents a 'step change' to a 'new normal' as you describe, and that continues for a protracted period, as I mentioned, then we may see significant changes at planetary level. Fascinating times !
  9. It is, as you say, enigmatic. That the sun is not behaving in the manner to which we are accustomed is evident in all of the graphs. Whether this is due to external factors such as planetary clocking or to the internal mechanisms of the sun – or both, we can only guess and try to spot the clues. We can see from the MSL chart that mesosphere temperatures are falling significantly; NLCs started unusually early this year, TC index is low and likely to continue lower. My favourite graph, the ‘Ap index’, seems to be ‘Flat-lining’ as do spots. We know that the ‘Butterfly Gap’ was wider than average last time around, and looks like being wider still this time. So what are the implications? If we see a sudden return to ‘normal’ then perhaps we carry on much as before. However if the ‘Flat-Line’ situation continues for a protracted period and struggles to rise we can assume that upper level temperatures will continue to decline and may struggle to achieve previous peak levels. But what then of temperatures lower down. We know that the atmosphere contracts under cooling conditions. Stratospheric level thermal and pressure profiles contract towards the equator pulling polar structures with them. The ‘Sea – Land Differential’ becomes the dominant influence on surface weather patterns which in turn tend to become rigidly stable – so the conditions you’ve got are what you keep, often for a long time, floods in some places, drought in others. It’s an interesting thought experiment playing with the possibilities !
  10. It would seem so on that graph, indeed both IMF per the graph and Ap seem 'Rangebound' over the last year or so. A rough guestimation of Ap for this month would put it at 'around 5', (see if the chaps in Boulder agree with me). It will be an interesting indicator to see what happens in December - the negative swing of the R-M effect. Again on a rough guestimate based on current forecasts it looks like being 'around 4' - similar to 2008 - rather than the deep dives of 2009 onwards. If we then stay in the 4 to 7 range with light coronal hole activity and little in the way of spots for a prolonged period it could have some interesting connotations!
  11. To quote from my analysis written at the time : - "It is relevant to note that the end of 2008 represented the deepest part of the sunspot null, yet it wasn’t until the Ap cycle plunged to it’s lowest levels in the years following that the extreme winters were experienced. As the charts show, in 2008 the cold was well advanced but did not reach the levels experienced later. This observation is consistent with the concept that a dip in solar impacts occurs coincident with the ‘leading edge’ years of each sunspot cycle (Spörer’s Law), and has a consequential effect upon surface climate. (Refer: “Ap Index Historical Analysis”)" We seem to be in a similar situation at present, 'Ap' activity is declining, coronal hole activity is declining, yet sunspot activity has not yet started to increase (appreciably). We seem to be in the 2008 /2009 bottom. how long this 'bottom' will persist is open to conjecture' It is the "Spörer’s Law Period" that we have to be aware of, the "Butterfly Gap", how long it will persist, how deep it will go we must monitor and observe. If it is long and deep then we may be in to a "Minimum" concept. Only time will tell. Please refer to the charts of the time. Refer : https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/ 2008 seems to be one of those periods when ‘Ap’ and surface activity showed little cross correlation – some, with TS Fay (15-19 Aug) but difficult to define interaction with Gustav, Hanna or Ike (late Aug to early Sept) but I have attached the data for the sake of completeness.
  12. Sebastien -The storm that wouldn’t die! There has been an interesting sequence of events associated with “Sebastien” Much has been said about the “lighthouse beam” coronal hole (which has declined significantly this time around) however less well mentioned is a smaller companion hole which has preceded it each rotation. This time the smaller one was recorded as : CH944 trans equatorial 2019.11.12-2019.11.13 : (impact) 2019.11.16-2019.11.17 : 2/2/(Ap)9 : 433 ref. CH940 By Tuesday Nov. 19th Sebastien had popped up, TS advisory No.1 recording winds 40-50kts; expected to have dissipated by 22nd/1200. By P.M. 20th, advisory No.7 recorded winds 60 MPH with the possibility it could become a hurricane - based on its initial rate of growth. The stronger (though not as big as previously) “lighthouse” hole impacted 21st-23rd Nov: CH945 trans equatorial 2019.11.16-2019.11.18 : (impact) 2019.11.21-2019.11.23 : 2/4/(Ap)22 : 591 ref. CH941 By 22nd the Hurricane centre reported (Their Caps) TENACIOUS SEBASTIEN DOES NOT KNOW IT IS NOVEMBER AND REFUSES TO WEAKEN (22/11) - SEBASTIEN REFUSES TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...(23/11) Although never quite making hurricane strength it refused to die out , accelerated, and continues north-eastward towards UK and Europe with sustained winds of 55kts. Surface conditions - sea temp/atmosphere should have allowed the storm to die out as initially predicted. Meanwhile in the Pacific, similar cyclonic activity in the form TS “Fung Wong” arose in Luzon Strait at the same time with a similar pattern of behaviour. Over the same period, TC index ceased its previous rapid decline and rose to 3.92x1010 The ‘coincidence’ between CH impacts and terrestrial storm behaviour seems to continue.
  13. The irritating thing is that – as with all things in nature – it doesn’t always hold true. There are times when there appears to be little or no direct connection between the solar impacts and storm activity. Perhaps some, but after a delay, or even not at all. Identifying the how’s and why’s may take a lot more analysis! Thought process: Are there aspects of the heliospheric sheet and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere that periodically make the whole terrestrial structure more / less vulnerable to solar impacts at any one point / period in time ? Comments ?
  14. Another little addition to the files, if we examine the data surrounding the famous "Perfect Storm" of 29th October 1991, we can see that the influence of solar impacts 'May' be relevant to other surface storm activity, not just the tropical variety. Gets more interesting the further you push this concept. The immediacy of reaction tends to imply that there is more to the concept than just atmospheric expansion or even shock wave impacts. Electromagnetic effects have been proposed; a storm may be considered as a rapidly rotating conductive mass active within a magnetic field. Change or increase that field and rotation would/could/should increase. That particular period was very active overall from a solar impact viewpoint.
  15. Perhaps relevant to note that the elevated level of overall solar activity in 2003 has been associated with the "European Heat Wave - 2003" said to be the hottest since 1540. (Certainly a hot one, I was there! ) That, and the cold winters around 2010 (the "Snowmageddon" years) associated with the R-M dips in 'Ap' of those years, are discussed in my section on the subject in https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/ Fascinating when theories start to come together ! Any good with Met charts? The above are the charts from 00UT, 7th November, 2003 (heat wave year), 2010 (snowmageddon year) and 2019 (now), in that order. A wise man might see fit to invest in warm underwear for the coming winter! Extending this to the debate on SC25 might imply that the decline in activity is deeper now, and potentially to continue longer, than the SC23/24 minimum.
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