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About northwind-adventurer

  • Rank
    Minor flare

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    Melbourne, Australia
  • Interests
    Photography, outdoors activities, aurora-chasing, and music.

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  1. Aurora in Toivakka, south-central Finland, that lasted for the best part of two nights. At times there was pulsations and very fast movement. Most intense phase was reached at 3:00 AM local time on Sunday morning 1st September.
  2. There is an accepted methodology called the solar cycle 'precursor method' scientists use when predicting solar cycles. Generally speaking, they are able to predict more accurately the size of the coming solar cycle once the solar minimum has passed, usually by 1-2 years. This method basically means that if the solar minimum phase was shorter (300-400 spotless days, or 1-2 years), then the following solar cycle will be more active than average. Likewise, if the solar minimum was longer (600-900 spotless days, 2-3 years) then the following solar cycle will be less active than average. This data and more is on the Belgian solar activity website spotless days page http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless. The only drawback of this method is that it can only predict the solar cycle several years after the solar minimum. In terms of making earlier predictions (before the solar cycle minimum), the most successful theory so far has been developed by Stanford University solar physics professor Leif Svalgaard. This is the Solar Polar Fields method. At Stanford they have been monitoring the strength of the solar polar fields since 1976 and found that this can predict the coming solar cycle more accurately than other methods ahead of time. Basically, the stronger the solar polar fields are at solar minimum, the stronger the coming solar cycle will be, and vice versa. In this current solar minimum, the polar fields are a little stronger than at the previous solar minimum, but still weaker than other solar cycles. This has led Professor Svalgaard to predict that Solar Cycle 25 will be marginally stronger than the Solar Cycle 24 just passed. The solar polar fields method is also the one endorsed & used by NOAA for early predictions. The values of the solar polar fields can be monitored at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory webpage http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html Below is a graph showing Svalgaard's prediction - and the related article is here https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/leif-svalgaard-reveals-his-solar-cycle-25-prediction-at-last/ And here is a statement from Leif Svalgaard http://lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2018/Oral_Presentations/6_c_Svalgaard_Contri.pdf
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