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theartist

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  1. The GOES 15 X-ray flux sensor may have had an adjustment 'fix' applied in the last 24 hours, for now it is tracking the GOES 14 sensor quite well (at these current low flux levels). Previously, Rubén Vázquez and I were discussing an apparent problem with the sensor over in the thread titled, "Recent Cycle #25 Sunspot" in the "Solar activity" forum.
  2. Rubén Looking at the GOES 15 plot today, it appears some type of 'fix' adjustment has been applied to it, just in the last day, for now it is tracking the GOES 14 sensor quite well.
  3. I think that looks much better, thank you!😀
  4. Hi, I first want to thank the creators of this wonderful website that is loaded with a lot of solar information handy for learning amateurs. My suggestion pertains to the size of a video link. When a URL link to a video (from youtube for example) is dropped into a comment, a very large window-image of the video thumbnail appears at that location. My only suggestion is to shrink the size of that window-image so that it is not as intrusive of a 'window real-estate' grab. ☺️ (You may please ignore this if it has already been suggested.) Thanks again for the wonderful site that you have put a lot of effort into and provide to the public.
  5. The F10.7cm Flux (http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php) has responded with a pretty good boost:
  6. Ruben, Dr. Strong has recently produced a video on this arriving area here: In addition, he just released a video on the NOAA/NASA forecast for SC25: Here on spaceweatherlive.com, in the following thread, I provided a bio of Dr. Strong that I quickly found online.
  7. Another SC25 area emerged on the disk today:
  8. To Rubén and all, I've been looking through an archive of the GOES X-ray Flux plots to see if there are any further clues on the apparent erratic behavior of the GOES 15 1.0-8.0 A sensor (which I'll refer to as the 'G15,1-8 sensor'). (I discovered this archive of image data in the spaceweatherlive archive found here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2015/07/01/xray . The NOAA/SWPC GOES plots can be accessed there by clicking the 'SWPC' button.) WOWSERS to the folks that put the spaceweatherlive site together!😍 Below are images of the GOES X-ray Flux plots recorded on Jan 1 for each of the last three years: Looking closely at the last two images, we see that the 'G15,1-8 sensor' was operating fine at the beginning of 2018, tracking the comparable GOES 14 sensor (orange) fairly well. However, we see that is not the case at the beginning of 2019, and conclude the performance of the 'G15,1-8 sensor' took a turn for the worse sometime in 2018.
  9. Reuben, I think you have certainly pointed out an issue with absolute accuracy, particularly of the GOES 15 1.0-8.0 A (red) sensor, when at these low-level irradiance conditions. The reason I say that is when flat-lining, its values are practically two orders-of-magnitude less than the comparable GOES 14 sensor (orange). However, it still does respond to flares, as your attached plot confirms, and when it does so, its values seem to be within the same order of magnitude as the GOES 14 sensor. Since it is not something that is easily swapped out,☺️, NASA is letting us (the general public) observe how its (possibly questionable?) performance unfolds, right along with them. I'll see if I can get Dr. Strong to offer an opinion on it, and will get back to you if he does. [Edit, above I said 'NASA', but I think 'NOAA/SWPC' would have been the more correct term.]
  10. I examined plots of the following frequencies: 0.05nm, 0.15nm, 0.25nm, 0.35nm, 0.45nm, 0.55nm, 0.65nm, 0.75nm, and 0.85nm. I conclude the following: "Across all Soft X-ray frequencies examined, the average* energy levels during SC23 Minimum were at lower magnitudes than what has been observed so far during SC24 Minimum. (*The ‘average’ was ascertained from simply eye-balling the graphs. Although this is not absolutely quantitative, it is readily apparent in comparing the magnitudes of energy levels presented on the y-axis, between the graphs, that our conclusion is sound.)" Please examine the data plotted in the document* yourself, if you may, and share any conclusions, critique, questions, etc. Thank-you for prompting this interesting exercise! 😄 [*The document has been published on the web, found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTGwZr4yFusUCRwAOE4vo8WUvdNte2FHE6aN9C11nVoohsOARtzuK_fnTNH1ygXEapZufAGxHjVmMaV/pub . Note, the document was created and published with the free google apps, which provides convenience, at the expense of them possibly containing some quarky formatting issues.]
  11. Thank you, Rubén. Earlier you suggested that the X-ray levels this current solar minimum may be unusually low, as plotted per the GOES 14 & 15 X-ray Flux plots. For comparison, I suggested looking at X-ray levels found in plots found at http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/ . Below I circle the only database (that I could find) there which provides easy interactive online access and provides irradiance plots in the X-ray frequencies of interest. I've created a document (using google docs) at the following link, in order to consolidate plots of the X-Ray frequencies of interest, comparing the Solar Minimum period of SC23 to the current Solar Minimum period of SC24: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_7cK_nqJckuMh6PqqhKpoGENzOUH5MGdUfiMndSFSPU/edit?usp=sharing That document contains plots of Soft X-ray energy levels, in the 0.5-8.0 Angstrom energy range of interest, comparing levels between a 15-month period centered (roughly) around the SC23 Minimum versus the most recent 15-month period of SC24. Here is a sample plot from that document:
  12. Guess-timates on the SC24 Minimum Point to follow: Eighteen 11-yr Solar Cycles have passed between April 8, 1823 and April 4, 2019, giving an average SC Length of 10.89 yrs. Even if the SC24 minimum is as far out as Jan 8, 2021, the average SC Length would be 10.99 yrs. Thus, an average SC Length is ~10.9 yrs. There have been nearly seven solar cycles since the end of SC17, where its minimum occurred on roughly April 17, 1944. That would, based simply on the average SC Length of 10.9 yrs, place the upcoming SC24 minimum in August of 2020 (i.e., 7cycles * 10.9yrs/cycle = 76yrs3.6months). Rounding up the average SC Length to 11.0 yrs would place the upcoming SC24 minimum sometime in the early months of 2021.
  13. How embarrassing, the same bandwidths are 0.05nm-0.8nm; at the time I posted, in my haste, I did the 10x conversion in my head, but went the wrong way.😣 So sorry, Rubén Vázquez, and all.😓 (I.e., the plotted GOES 14&15 X-ray bandwidths are 0.5-8.0 A combined, being 0.05-0.8nm.)
  14. Dr. Keith Strong attained his undergraduate degree in Astronomy at University College, London. He studied X-ray spectroscopy for his Ph.D. thesis at the Mullard Space Science Laboratory. He flew two sounding rockets from Woomera as part of his research. He was a candidate for payload specialist on the Spacelab II mission. That is where he met Loren Acton who hired him to work at the Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory after he got his Ph.D. in 1979. He started as a data analyst on the Solar Maximum Mission project and was appointed the U.S. Principal Investigator of the SMM X-ray Polychromator experiment in 1984. After SMM “came home,” he worked in Japan on the Yohkoh program helping to set up the SXT scientific observing program. In 1995 he became manager of the Lockheed Martin Solar & Astrophysics Laboratory, where he was part of the TRACE team. He chaired the 2000 Sun-Earth Connection Roadmap Committee that put the “Living With a Star” program in place. The laboratory won several solar instrument contracts for STEREO, Hinode, and SDO while branching out into Earth Sciences (Triana and the GOES-R Lightning Mapper), Astronomy (JWST NIRCam and GLAST) and space weather monitoring (NOAA GOES-N SXI and the GOES-R SUVI instruments). He retired from Lockheed Martin in 2007 and has been doing solar research at NASA GSFC ever since, most recently through an appointment at the University of Maryland, College Park, Astronomy Department. His chief interests at the moment are the solar cycle, the Sun’s role in climate change, and education and public outreach. As a hobby he runs a YouTube channel that mainly details daily solar activity, regularly updates global climate results, and sometimes debunks end-of-the-world scaremongering. His channel has over 900 videos with nearly 2 million views and over 7,000 subscribers. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjqgbaPtrfhAhXJ6YMKHRaDCv0QFjAAegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fscicolloq.gsfc.nasa.gov%2FStrong.html&usg=AOvVaw1o495UuWzzh-sikuS2BWk0 https://twitter.com/drkstrong
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