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theartist

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  1. Plotted below are two solar cycles that meet The Panel's SC25 Prediction/Forecast. Which cycle appears to be more 'interesting' from the perspective of potential space-weather consequences? Do we readily elicit a response to the question if we plot them again as the 'monthly-mean' instead of 'smoothed' (below)? The following two figures describe the planetary position at the 'Start' of SC14: The following figure describes the planetary position at the 'Start' of SC24: The following figure describes the planetary position at the Tentative 'Start' (i.e., Jan 2019) of SC25: Food for thought?
  2. Marcel, over on the Solar Cycle 25 has already "started". thread, you state, Do you care to elaborate further here on this point?
  3. The average Time of Rise for all of the past 24 solar cycles is 4.4 years, per List_of_solar_cycles. However, we've chosen to be selective of the cycles to include in the computation of the average. Below is a plot of the 'weak' solar cycles. These are the seven (7) cycles that met The Panel's Peak Range prediction (as discussed in this thread: Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 'The Panel' & NASA.) We can toss out SC5, since it did not meet The Panel's Rise Time to Solar Maximum prediction. The average Time of Rise for the remaining six (6) cycles is 5.2 yrs. A three-year window for Peak was selected by The Panel in their prediction, and thus, our forecast is for the Solar Maximum (Peak) to occur within a three-year window centered around the 5.2 yr projected Time of Rise.
  4. This first 'headline' post in this thread will contain a summary of the prediction arrived at by concensus of this community forum. Check back from time to time as it is updated. Posts that follow this first 'headline' post will give supporting evidence as to how the consensus was arrived at. Solar Minimum (i.e., the Nadir of Cycle 24 which is the "Start" of Cycle 25): before March 2019, and likely January or February 2019. (Note, this is based on the "Bremen Metric" discussed in this thread, Solar Cycle 25 has already "started", in combination with up-to-date review of the ISN Daily Total, Monthly Mean Total, and 13-month Smoothed Monthly Total.) Solar Maximum (Peak): within period Nov. 2021-to-Nov. 2024. (Note, that is 5.2 yrs +/- 1.5 yrs from Solar Minimum.) Sunspot Peak Range: 100-to-135. (Note, with a 20% chance > 135, and 5% chance <100. These numbers will likely be modified with further review of the evidence. Current consensus is biased toward SC25 being as strong or stronger than SC24.)
  5. Even though we may improve our knowledge of the inner-workings of the sun, that is not going to provide "perfect" predictions for the following two reasons: We will never have perfect knowledge of the inner workings of the sun (i.e., the solar dynamo physical processes). The 'solar activity' (e.g., Bright Spot, Active Region, Coronal Hole) manifestation is a function of probabilistic/stochastic processes. Consider a 'lava-lamp' analogy, as suggested by Dr. Skov, which I will now embellish. We may know (or at least have a pretty good idea) of the duty-cycle of the lava-lamp's heater. We may have external sensors measuring temperature and magnetic fields. We may have a historical record of the lava lamp's visible behavior. Nonetheless, we are not going to predict with perfect precision the size and number of the lava lamp bubbles that will happen on such-and-such a day next week. However, as our knowledge and measurement precision of the lava-lamp parameters increase, we can model it pretty well, though it will still be subject to probabilistic/stochastic processes, and thus, (even if we had perfect knowledge, down to quantum mechanics granularity, of all matter-interaction in the universe) any predictions can only be framed within a certain probability. And then there are factors that may be affecting those probabilistic/stochastic processes that we hadn't taken into account in our model. For example, suppose our electrical grid is providing 'clean' repeatable sinusoidal AC energy reliably for years on-end, and after stacking up months of reliable lava-lamp predictions, our AC electricity house-current starts getting 'dirty' due to replacement of generators up-line. That is when we may find out that any perturbation in the AC house-current has slight influence on the performance of the lava-lamp's heater, enough to measurably influence the stochastic behavior of the lava-lamp.
  6. The chart below, List of Solar Cycles, lists the past 24 Solar Cycles. It is annotated to indicate which cycles would have met the Panel's Peak Range prediction, the Rise Time to Solar Maximum, and both criteria. Seven (7) of the 24 cycles would have met the Panel's Peak Range prediction (after rounding off the Smoothed Maximum ISN to no decimal places). ALL but one of the 24 cycles would have met the Panel's Rise Time to Solar Maximum prediction. Six (6) of the previous 24 cycles met both the Peak Range and the Rise Time to Solar Maximum prediction. Clearly, the Rise Time to Solar Maximum prediction was so broad that it would be difficult for Cycle 25 to not meet that window. Nonetheless, the Panel's prediction on Peak Range is definitely biased toward a weak cycle. This is specified in the text of their conclusion, "This is well below the average number of sunspots...We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum...Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24." Before I proceed with the Kitiashvili (NASA) prediction, I came across the following document produced by The Panel, which will help explain the discrepancy above in Peak Range (i.e, 82 sunspots versus 116 sunspots, etc.): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u59/10%20Lisa%20Upton%20Official.pdf Here are a few slides from that document: I'm calling this the NASA prediction, since NASA is using it in a news release (cited below) on their website. This prediction is somewhat baffling (to me), because I found two different predictions online. That may have something to do with the interchange of SSN V1 and SSN V2, over the years, in her model, or possibly it is related to updates of the model as time progresses and more data is input into the model. I will restrain from further conjecture, and just provide a summation of what I found. The most recent prediction was taken from a Kitiashvili presentation found here, starting @ 15:00: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W55Zst_ruGA The following document appears to match the slides in that video: https://aas.org/files/resources/kitiashvili.pptx Kitiashvili Summary (from June 2019 Presentation) Solar Minimum (Period duration): 2019-2021. (Note, this implies Solar Cycle 25 "onset" (i.e., the point at which activity picks up appreciably) is predicted to occur no sooner than early 2022.) Solar Maximum Peak: in 2024-2025. Sunspot Peak Range: about 50 with an error estimate of ~15-30%. (Note, per the graph snapshot below, from Slide 10 in her June 2019 Presentation, the Peak Range appears to be ~43-65.) Additional Highlights: The cycle will likely have a double-Maximum extending over 2-2.5 years. Conclusions from the presentation confirm the above very low cycle prediction, stating, "Solar Cycle 25 (Maximum)...is expected to be significantly weaker than that of the current cycle." The following article, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration, pertaining to Kitiashvili's forecast, states: "The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years." (I wish to add that a previous prediction, from a Kitiashvili 'poster' dated July 30, 2018, found here https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180007221, stated, "mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with the error estimate ~15%.)
  7. SOLAR CYCLE 25 PREDICTION from the SOLAR CYCLE 25 Prediction Panel https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle Solar Minimum (i.e., the Nadir of Cycle 24 which is the "Start" of Cycle 25): late in 2019 or 2020. (Note, this is a ~1.33yr* Minimum Window; *we'll assume "late in 2019" means sometime in the period Sept-Dec 2019, and "2020" means sometime in 2020. However, based on clarification from the silso.be article---***linked below, which states, "minimum between the current cycle 24 and cycle 25 is predicted to occur between July 2019 and September 2020"---this gives a 1.17yr Minimum Window.) Solar Maximum (Peak): between 2023 and 2026. (Note, let's assume they mean between the beginning of 2023 and the beginning of 2026, which is a 3yr Window Peak; however, combined with the 1.17yr Minimum Window, this means they predict Solar Maximum to occur (i.e., the Rise Time) sometime within 2.25-to-6.5 years after Solar Minimum.) Sunspot Peak Range: 95-to-130. (**What does this mean? Are they referring to the peak of the "Monthly Mean", or the peak of the "Smoothed-Monthly"?) **I wish to nail down the answer to this question. Later that article states, "Solar Cycle 24 reached its maximum - the period when the Sun is most active - in April 2014 with a peak average of 82 sunspots." However, from this article on the same subject,http://sidc.be/silso/node/152, we hopefully get some clarification, wherein it states, "This prediction is now given in the scale of sunspot number Version 2. Therefore, solar cycle 25 will be similar to cycle 24, which peaked at 116 in April 2014." ***They also gave clarification on the Minimum Target in that article: "The next minimum between the current cycle 24 and cycle 25 is predicted to occur between July 2019 and September 2020." The plot above on the left for Cycle 24 represents the "Monthly Mean" (faint Black Line) and the 13-month "Smoothed-Monthly" (Red Line) Sunspot Number. We can inspect that plot further, downloading data from here: http://sidc.be/silso/datafiles Here is the data plotted, after downloading:
  8. Hi Nogar, I hope you can share and contribute here what you know on the topic. I'm pretty sure what I unveil above has never been published, at least to that detail. But I'm certainly open to being proven wrong.
  9. It may be nice to get some discussion on this topic. One of the first striking curiosities to the reader, may be the selection of the He-1 Magnetometer for this 'TRIGGER ALERT', rather than the Hp-1 which is the one normally presented in the Magnetometer data widely distributed to the public; for example: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer The magnetometers on the GOES satellites are triaxial, with the following definitions for the orthogonal measurements: Hp: magnetic field vector component, points northward, perpendicular to the orbit plane which for a zero degree inclination orbit is parallel to Earth's spin axis. He: magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and Hn and points earthward. Hn: magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and He and points eastward. Ht: the total field. The He sensor response, sometimes, has a somewhat inverse response to the Hp sensor, but not always, and any inverse proportionality is certainly not linear; for example see the following:
  10. NOTE, a more appropriate placement of this topic may in the "Geomagnetic Activity" forum(?), as trickle-down (indirect) influence on Earth's Space Environmental conditions are subject to our planet's relative positioning in the solar system amongst other matter (besides just our Sun, although solar-terrestrial interactions are of predominate focus).
  11. If one wishes to check for themselves, they can find the SEM data here: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html Then drill-down on ./plots, So we pull up Aug 2017 data as an example: We find four TRIGGER ALERT signals and a chunk of MISSING DATA. So then, we go check to see if there were any significant earthquakes that month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2017
  12. Hypothesis: Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data? Here is one to consider: A dramatic plunge in the EPEAD Electrons [those Electrons >0.8MeV (the black line) to values <10^1 e/(cm^2 s sr)] in conjunction with a sharp rise in the 'He-1' Magnetometer signal (the red line, to values >= ~100nT). g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.pdf Another example, April 2012: g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.pdf Earthquakes in April 2012: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2012)
  13. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jLhVNzyQOnSXjZ5MlQVybGunzyDcN17c/view?usp=sharing
  14. After many days of flat X-ray flux, we are getting some bumps today, and I think it is coming from that new SC25 sunspot area! You can see it SPEWING PLASMA!
  15. Consider the possibility that a coronal hole is being occluded by magnetic field perturbation in the corona above it. Possibly, this is happening in the mid-latitude coronal hole currently on the solar disk. This theory is suggested in my video produced today titled: "Coronal Hole Occlusion". Funky Energy 'In-between' (Part 2), aka 'Coronal Hole Occlusion' The magnetic fields occluding the coronal hole appear to be associated with the area between AR2741 & AR2740.
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