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theartist

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  1. The highlighted Carrington Rotations (CR) in Figure 5 are from the SC24/25 transition. Their respective magnetogram maps are shown in Figure 6. Figure 5. Carrington Rotation callouts in the SC24/25 transition. Figure 6. Magnetogram maps from the SC23/24 transition.
  2. Thank you for your contribution! By "spots", you are referring to the magnetic-structures observed in the magnetograms, rather than actual sunspots, yes? I will proceed to post up the magnetogram maps for the current transition. Afterward, let's discuss further whether you agree with my placing (in Figure 1 above) the Tentative Solar Minimum Nadir (which I interpret you are calling the "cross over period") in Jan/Feb 2020, or if you think it should be projected even further out in time.
  3. The temporal change of some 'magnetic structure matrix (MSM) oscillations' are illustrated in the following figures. The highlighted Carrington Rotations (CR) in Figure 3 are from the SC23/24 transition. Their respective magnetogram maps are shown in Figure 4. Figure 3. Carrington Rotation callouts within their 'magnetic structure matrix (MSM) oscillations'. Figure 4. A recurring 'magnetic structure matrix' (MSM) is observed in the magnetogram maps of the SC23/24 transition.
  4. What is termed a 'mag-structure oscillation' in Figure 1 above, is a matrix collection of smaller photospheric 'magnetic-structures'. Sometimes these smaller 'mag-structures' get assigned Active Region numbers.
  5. Figure 1. SC23/24 Transition. Carrington Rotation cycles are observed within 'oscillations of magnetic structure matrices'. Figure 2. SC24/25 Transition. 'Oscillations of magnetic structure matrices' are highlighted in green (as in Figure 1). In Figure 1 and Figure 2 above, the cyclic oscillations of the F10.7cm Flux, within the larger mag-structure oscillations (highlighted in green), generally occur over multiple Carrington Rotations.
  6. Over the past several months, the threads I've started on this forum have been a "stream of consciousness", where you the reader have been allowed to watch my learning process in pursuit of a Solar Cycle 25 Forecast that is based on sound physical principles that we can all understand. When I come across insights, sometimes it is hard to contain my excitement, and I share it by putting it out there in the 'internet ether', here on this forum. I'll continue in that vein here, in this thread. In very recent weeks, I've been looking at magnetograms. Now, with greater understanding of that tool, greater confidence in our forecast will be achieved, as we merge that understanding with our previous findings. I'm going to now drop a couple of what very well may be quite insightful graphs. (Folks, this stuff could be huge, and it will have ramifications, going forward, on how solar cycle forecasting is done in the future.) I plan to update the following graphs with annotations.
  7. The perceived brightness of the sun with the unaided eye, at ground level, is due to scattering of sunlight in the atmosphere. Atmosphere constitutents (e.g, aerosols and cosmic ray by-products) change, and the total atmosphere thickness (particularly the thermosphere) also changes, over time, and these changes can have an affect on the perceived 'brightness' of the sun.
  8. I again went back and reviewed the 'scrolling magnetograms' of 2008 to see if there were any small regions (near the equator) during the drought interval between 21-Jun and 11-Nov that I may have previously rejected as insignificant. The biggest and most enduring of the smallish mag-structures is circled in the figure below: Here is what it looked like in the MDI Magnetogram: That little area fell on 9-Oct, 10 days before the first high-latitude area appeared on 19-Oct.
  9. I'm sorry, I'm referring to the tables first posted to this thread on Nov. 8, labeled Table 1. and Table 2.
  10. The figures below reveal the progression over time, in recent months, of mag-structures close to the equator (i.e., between +/- 10deg latitude). Welcome to the forum, thank you. I want to eventually investigate the magnitude of SC25 again more closely. My current view has been that SC25 will be maybe as strong, but biased weaker, than SC24. However, my most recent findings posted in this thread today, in which I compare photospheric magnetic-structure activity near the equator between the SC23/24 and SC24/25 transitions, are rather sobering. In the SC23/24 transition, there was zero (0) mag-structure activity at the equator for four (4) months before a magnetic structure appeared above 32deg latitude, and then SMN occurred two (2) months later. In the current SC24/25 transition, we still had mag-structure activity (albeit small in size) near the equator in this current month of November. Does that suggest SMN might still be at least six (6) months away?!? If that were the case, a comparison of the sunspot number trends (from Table I and Table II earlier in this thread) between the two cycles implies SC25 could be significantly weaker than SC24.
  11. Whoa, hold on, all were completely cleared out?!? Look at the image from 11 Nov. 2008: My point is that generally, in the few months prior to when mag-structures appeared above the Critical 32deg Latitude, the amount of mag-structure activity at the equator was noticeably reduced. The reader can verify that by checking for 'blank pages' in the 'scrolling magnetrograms'. The last 'significant' photospheric mag-structure to occur near the equator, prior to the one highlighted in the above 11-Nov-2008 MDI Magnetogram, occurred on 21-Jun-2008 (next figures): I will go back and edit my statement.
  12. Okay kind reader, since you now understand what marker to look for which will signify that Solar Minimum Nadir is imminent (i.e., within 1-3* months of the first appearance of such marker), your next question might be, "Why do I think Solar Minimum Nadir will likely occur no sooner than January or February 2020, give or take a month?" The answer to that question is found in other information (I have not yet discussed in detail) that appears in the 'scrolling magnetograms', like the 'blank page' mentioned earlier in this thread (see Figure 2 above). Do you recall the thread titled, "Multi-Rotation Persistent Magnetic Structure"? That large photospheric magnetic structure discussed in Case 2 of that thread was quite often trans-equatorial (it existed at low latitudes and extended across the equator). Another quite significant thing we have learned from our review of the magnetograms from the SC23/24 transition is that prior to and during the month of Solar Minimum Nadir, in the months prior to the occurrence of 'significant' mag-structures above the Critical 32deg Latitude, the solar disk cleared out all 'significant' (in size) mag-structures at the equator! [*Note, in the SC23/24 transition, the month of Solar Minimum Nadir was ~1.5 months after the first mag-structure appearance above the Critical 32deg Latitude.]
  13. Dear reader, if you have read this thread and understood it, do you now have a greater clarity on what is a likely outcome for the next cycle? Will you have greater clarity when you understand where the Solar Minimum Nadir is located? Has it already passed? NO, per the findings laid out in this thread, it is yet to happen in the future. How far into the future? One month? Three months? Another year to wait? What is the first thing to look for, to deduce the location of the Solar Minimum Nadir? It is a photospheric magnetic structure above 32deg latitude, in either hemisphere. We do not expect Solar Minimum Nadir to occur until that happens. Following the first manifestation of a 'significant' (in size) photospheric magnetic structure (mag-structure) above 32deg latitude, in either hemisphere, we then expect Solar Minimum Nadir to occur within the 1-3 months thereafter.
  14. Interesting you should say that, because there are A LOT more aerosols in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activity, and you may remember from school (or from rubbing a balloon on your sleeve) that non-conductors can develop electrostatic charge, so possibly non-conductive (originally electrically neutral) aerosol particles could develop electrical charge as well. The sun electromagnetically stirs up the ionosphere, and closer to ground in the thermosphere troposphere, where a lot of weather is generated, anthropogenic activity puts A LOT of electromagnetic energy into the atmosphere. So combine all of THAT particular type of anthropogenic activity and what do you get? I have no idea, but possibly that type of anthropogenic activity, in lieu of CO2 (which makes up less than 0.05% of the atmosphere) should be considered in 'abrupt climate change' or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), yes? What do you think about those ideas? Do they hold any merit?
  15. The next image of #6 is VERY interesting, because when compared to the 'scrolling magnetogram' image (Figure 5 above), the MDI Magnetogram at solar monitor.org looks like it somehow got flipped upside down: The next image of #7 indicates that this image (or the 'scrolling magnetogram' imagery) was also flipped upside down. I highlighted a 'Marker Feature' in the image, to compare with the same feature highlighted in the 'scrolling magnetogram', as a point of reference. The next image of #8 shows it to be so very diffuse and faint that it doesn't even show up, like it faintly did in the 'scrolling magnetogram'. Next is the image of #9:
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