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theartist

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  1. I just came across some information regarding the potential consequences to the Total Solar Irradiance in an era of lower sunspots. The most shocking thing to me is that this is rarely, if ever, mentioned in the online debates regarding a potential impending Grand Solar Minimum. The statement comes from Leif Svalgaard (probably one of the more recognized contemporary solar physicists) in the article, Solar activity – past, present, future, (J. Space Weather Space Clim. 3 (2013) A24 DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2013046): "the number of visible spots in the next cycle (and perhaps beyond) may fall to values not seen since the Maunder Minimum, but without dramatic changes in the emerging magnetic flux. Without the dark spots, Total Solar Irradiance might even be a bit higher." In the typical discussion on the matter, such as the article Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020, this contrarian view is not discussed. Any comment on this information, Emilio Petrozzi?
  2. I have not seen the observance of this phenomenon (a string of bright points simultaneously popping off at the solar equator) mentioned before. Consider the following: there is only a short window timeframe (3-4 months?) over an ~11-yr Schwabe Cycle where we would expect the event to even possibly occur; during that short timeframe, there is no guarantee that it will actually occur in any solar minimum period, let alone during every solar minimum period (reducing the odds of seeing one further). high tech imagery to observe this type of phenomenon has only been relatively recently available in the modern space age. So in answer to your questions, I don't know, but it may be a long time (many many years) before it is ever observed again? [Now, watch it happen once a week for the next 3-4 months. 🤣🤣😂]
  3. Before I think about the deeper implications of what you suggest, I'll convey the simple explanation for which I was inferring. You may have learned by now that the end phase of every Schwabe Cycle is the solar minimum period of approximately 3 yrs in duration. (The Schwabe Cycle is ~11 yrs in duration, being 1/2 of a full 22-year 'magnetic cycle'; the polarity of sunspots reverses each half of the 'magnetic cycle'.) The most commonly accepted solar dynamo theory assumes that the sunspots move to the equator over the duration of the Schwabe cycle; they first start out at about 40 degrees latitude ('bright points' can display at much higher latitudes) in each hemisphere, and by the end of the cycle, they are close to the equator. (There is some overlap between cycles, which is further explained under descriptions of the 'Butterfly Diagram', which I'll leave to the reader to investigate further.) So what we see displayed in this rare solar phenomenon is the magnetic fields of multiple 'bright points' (note, not all 'bright points' have sufficiently strong enough magnetic fields associated with them to pierce the photosphere, creating a sunspot) being displayed simultaneously about as close to the solar equator that they can get. This is a sign that we are relatively close to the bottom of the solar minimum period. Jupiter and Saturn are currently on the same side of the sun, fairly close to each other. They are currently off to the 'left' (towards 'solar east') of earth, which I think is what you refer to as "exact opposite" the 'bright points' being displayed, but nonetheless, "exact opposite" usually infers being completely on the other side of the sun (as in a superior conjunction) . I'd like to review that video, assuming I can find it, or if you have a link. Actually, I'll have to review S. McIntosh's work, but I think he would indicate this is a sign we are close to what he refers to as "Terminator", which typically occurs sometime after the Solar Minimum Nadir.
  4. There is a solar minimum phenomenon going on right now, which is likely rare to see. It is a series of 'bright points' simultaneously popping off in a line along the equator (images below).
  5. In addition, if I'm not mistaken, that area of solar disk containing the persistent magnetic structure discussed above for 'Case 2', is also responsible for producing the 'Stealthy CME' in the following thread: Evolution of a "Stealthy CME". Nope, sorry, this last statement is not necessarily true. The 'Stealthy CME' discussed in that thread occurred on 08/13/19, and only the first of the coronal holes straddling the persistent magnetic structure had appeared in the STEREO-A frame by that date, per the image below:
  6. So far in 2019, the GOES-14 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below. So far in 2019, GOES-15 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below.
  7. I think you meant September rather than October. I suspect it to again be earth facing on 2019.09.23-2019.09.27, with an associated Geomagnetic disturbance date interval of 2019.09.27-2019.10.02. Listed below is pertinent info on its previous four earth-facing visits (data source): STAR Coronal hole tag Location Earth facing position date interval Geomagnetic disturbance date interval Kp dominant / Kp max / ap max Max solar wind speed (km/s) Comment CH935 trans equatorial 2019.08.27-2019.08.31 2019.08.30-2019.09.05 4/6/67 872 ref. CH932 CH932 trans equatorial 2019.08.01-2019.08.02 2019.08.05-2019.08.08 3/5/56 708 ref. CH928 CH928 northern 2019.07.05-2019.07.07 2019.07.09-2019.07.11 3/5/39 623 ref. CH923 CH923 northern 2019.06.09 2019.06.12-2019.06.14 2/4/27 459 The following two images show what that area looked like, from STEREO-A, one week (approximate) before its last earth-facing position, and today: The following threads also had discussion on the persistent magnetic structure and associated coronal hole(s) being discussed above: Multi-Rotation Persistent Magnetic Structure ('Case 2' in that thread). Coronal Hole Polarity & Planetary Magnetic Connection Coronal Hole Occlusion.
  8. The trans-equatorial coronal hole that developed east (to the left) of the persistent magnetic structure discussed for 'Case 2' in this thread was earth facing on 2019.08.27-2019.08.31; its associated Geomagnetic disturbance date interval was 2019.08.30-2019.09.05 and it produced a Max solar wind speed of 872 km/s (reference www.solen.info ). Here are other thread discussions related to this persistent magnetic structure and associated coronal hole(s): Coronal Hole Occlusion Coronal Hole Polarity & Planetary Magnetic Connection.
  9. What I'm possibly showing in this thread is that there are large geomagnetic disturbances related to planetary positioning, apart from tidal pull of sunspots, because these geomagnetic disturbances are occurring even as the sunspot activity is waning; planetary electrical/magnetic influence (including suppression, as well as accentuating) of the sun's magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet comes to the forefront.
  10. Well, I don't think the idea of twisted 'flux tubes' (if that is what you are referring to) needs to be abandoned. The question is as to why spots periodically manifest in a cyclical manner, beyond 'random walk'. The periodicity aligns with cyclical power density of planetary clocking. The recent paper on tidal pull (A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo) conveyed that Tayler instability from planetary gravitational pull provides significant enough perturbation. However, if planetary clocking has significant direct influence on the manifestation of solar activity, there likely is a more intricate physical mechanism affecting spot manifestation (from which they they have buoyantly conveyed to the photosphere from the tacholine) and geomagnetic storm activity than just a tidal/gravitational pull of the planets, or it would have already been figured out by now. 🤓😄 The other stuff you mention about the stars is very interesting, and will take me some time to look into it. Thanks. A 'Cameron Bridges' mentioned a reference (on this thread, Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?) suggesting influence from other stars. And then there was the @Birkeland2nd twitter feed suggesting galactic magnetic fields (pointed to in the opening of this thread, Heliosphere Bubble Resonation). But before chasing galactic (major perturbations exterior to our solar system) theories, I suspect that planetary clocking as a direct influence has not been explored sufficiently. But your referenced star idea sheds new light. You might be referring to the magnetic fields getting twisted by differential rotation at the tacholine, i.e., the omega-effect (thus creating the flux tubes), that are then buoyantly conveyed to the surface by convection. That is the general view, but theories on the solar dynamo process are fair game, since it is not completely settled. I'm going to quickly drop some imagery here. There is A LOT that can be said about it, and I'm not doing it justice by just dropping these photos, but for now, I'll let it germinate with you. I think NASA spending just a tiny smidgen of their budget toward this line of research could open up some new vistas. See the 'sunspots' all over the place on this inner 'sun' in this photo: See the sunspot at the north pole in this next figure? A polar coronal hole? Howabout this 'solar wind spray' in this next depiction?: (Source of imagery: Spinning Plasma Ball Experiment) It has been discovered that the planets have plasma dust rings following them in their orbit, which would factor into the planetary interaction with the heliospheric current sheet.
  11. Interesting. I wonder if little 'insignificant' stuff like this bump in the microwave energy, apparently apart from typical 'thermal gyroresonance' above active regions, can hold clues to the bigger picture; e.g., does the sun fusion process resonate (like a beating heart)? The 'bump' I'm referring to is not the 'spikes', but rather, the lack of the average flux not yet returning to the previous lows (although the 'spikes' could be interrelated with that.)
  12. How quickly I forgot, there WAS a small sunspot region at the first of this month, and although the sunspots quickly disappeared, maybe(?) the sun has not 'relaxed' back to the depths of solar minimum lows (although that does not explain the anomalous spikes, including the one on 7/26/19).
  13. Hi. I think the gaseous objects I point to in the 304Angstrom images above are prominences. Are you referring to similar activity with the term "pronounced jets", or something else?
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