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Jesterface23

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  1. This current post is to show without a doubt the structure of Coronal Mass Ejections. On the way of doing this I have learned and updated some information from my first post on this topic. The Coronal Mass Ejection structure is made of 3 layers, which I call the Central Core, Middle Layer, and Outer Layer. Each of those layers are made of 2 sub-layers and they are separated by what I call a Half Shock. A pass through one layer into another would be an internal shock impact and I call them shocks because CMEs can be shock driven at almost any of them. I do know that the solar wind can overtake the CME shock by shock. In theory the solar wind IMF will go through first keeping the CME structure intact. CMEs can take many forms. I call the 3 possible impact regions the Leading Shock, Secondary Shock, and Far Shock. In theory the size of the Central Core determines the size of the Leading Shock. In theory how explosive a CME is determines the size of the Far Shock. Below is an image to show the different forms of the 3 layers. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1se3v7Mv9LwUXFgXpKz95zYNyVsLQkFJm The evidence of those layers and the forms they create begin here. In the calculations the only number that changes is the travel time. Besides that one number all calculations are exactly the same. I have graphs of the solar wind and those are the Google Drive links. In each graph the red lines mark the shocks for the 3 main layers and blue lines mark the Half Shocks. The black line is the exit of the outer layer. I do use abbreviations for shocks and Half Shocks. A# is a shock and B# is a Half Shock. Examples being the span through all layers is A0-A6 and the first half shock is at A0B1. I have cross sections of most of the CMEs below and those are the Desmos Calculator links. Currently the only use of the model there is to create a close recreation of a cross section of the CME. Blue lines are SOHO's line of impact. Green lines are STEREO A's line of impacts. Red lines are STEREO B's line of impacts. The dotted lines are what I used to help put the cross sections together from coronagraph imagery. The satellite and solar directions from coronagraph imagery are noted next to the links to view and compare. Here are graphs where the CME spans from A0 to A6 best visible by velocities, proton density, or the CME being shock driven at A4B1. These are Leading Edge impacts. CME of April 4th, 2000 This CME is shock driven at A4B1 and ends at A6. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1asnTEtZ0xpyvOFqk7mtfnjVZydMJX6R8 https://www.desmos.com/calculator/txich34nma - SOHO West to East CME of November 22nd, 2001 This CME is shock driven at A4B1 and ends by A6. https://drive.google.com/open?id=10EA-6aipCn946bNawOLThXafxCOAobgP https://www.desmos.com/calculator/4m7ooym9vn - SOHO West to East CME of March 7th, 2011 This CME is moderately shock driven at A4B1 and ends by A6. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1LZMR9wzgv73gSfAPAdzXHdZUDj1WaZcP https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nwgwsgc4eb STEREO A Northeast to Southwest CME of May 17th, 2012 This CME is shock driven at A4B1 and ends at A6. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1A8McA0-lo-rfLjGMO4doVo1IEXjR4YmE https://www.desmos.com/calculator/j3ofjrbqhl - STEREO A East to West CME of July 23rd, 2012 As I created cross sections for these next 2 CMEs my view started changing from what I thought they were like, but they are still CMEs that I know the least about. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1y8i4KkQCaJNrbybMZoeCEPS0mquSpt1A https://www.desmos.com/calculator/0yb0rzzoht - STEREO A Northwest to Southeast CME of November 7th, 2013 This will remain as my favorite CME for a while because all layer shocks are visible in the data. The disruptive IMF ends at A1. The Bt component flips by A2 and is disruptive afterwards. The Bn component flips by A3 for most of the remainder of the CME. The A4 shock impacts and the Bm component begins to decline in intensity. Finally in this case the CME is also shock driven at A5. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1MxIXU7BK-9NbVt3G-7MYm9MKzTV6_Vga https://www.desmos.com/calculator/uozrzabg6x - STEREO B West to East Here are similar impacts by the Secondary Shock and the CME span is A0 to A4. With that, a CME can be shock driven at A2B1. CME of February 25th, 2014 This CME is shock driven at A2B1 and ends at A4. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1KRi0ahXI48Qhvyr-I2Ws2ClNt4EJASHZ https://www.desmos.com/calculator/mk924awubw - SOHO East to West CME of November 8th, 2000 This CME is shock driven at A2B1 and ends at A4. https://drive.google.com/open?id=11FWHb_w4c9MwbqL_qGYtujvoSg9KaaI_ CME of August 18th, 2010 This CME ends at A4. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CkgjMBzCElYmj9MtO4EJN4ytamZquzof https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nj8s2tw65p - STEREO A South-Southwest to North-Northeast CME of January 27th, 2012 Due to the where STEREO A took this impact the CME doesn't have a shock to be shock driven at A2B1. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1uSFVPNN67AUZ7YCX-EX5e9VrI9cfGpnl https://www.desmos.com/calculator/k8hz5jd8co - STEREO A Northeast to Southwest Now here are some Far Shock CMEs with the span being A0 to A2. CME of March 7th, 2011https://drive.google.com/open?id=185ClDRWg_9ndnADrmcZv_GYcWuKWiwyf https://www.desmos.com/calculator/wfgmjuif7r - SOHO Northwest to Southeast CME of February 25th, 2014 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1b0T6pXCduFHMcTfoVSgcBv7nG0EdLDNw https://www.desmos.com/calculator/mk924awubw - STEREO B West to East CME of September 10th, 2017 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1H09lye4jZ-2RCQgsNKyhPgzxsufXgOXI https://www.desmos.com/calculator/wfgmjuif7r - SOHO West to East https://www.desmos.com/calculator/iusoqzax7n - North to South Some M3 CMEs are great examples because they can go through a very disrupted magnetic section of the CME. At the A3 shock the IMF has a sudden shift. CME of September 8th, 2010 https://drive.google.com/open?id=12C3J6EKuO4bNejT3m76Ac8Az6nAh6FGH CME of June 6th, 2000 https://drive.google.com/open?id=11hgYbqX2UwMWBiM09aGTaXcO0kNWtyPl https://www.desmos.com/calculator/0rvzrbpc5g - SOHO North to East CME of March 7th, 2011 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1LZMR9wzgv73gSfAPAdzXHdZUDj1WaZcP https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nwgwsgc4eb - STEREO A Northeast to Southwest CME of September 10th, 2014 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1BmtjRWN8WbpPAdySfJt_l2VZ3yC2KyNR https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qu9prpdwbb - SOHO North to South CME of May 6th, 2005 MESSENGER manages to get one of these impacts. The first disruption is when it hits the Half Shock then becomes fully disruptive once it reaches A3. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1kf15UKqfyrDYn9lDcWkBDnvaqVua95Ho There are M2 CMEs where there is an impact near the edge. No Secondary Shocks have formed on these sides of the CME. The IMF becomes completely stable, and one thing that I have learned is that the IMF total must remain stable as well. CME of May 22nd, 2002 https://drive.google.com/open?id=14CjwmA8g6T-YutjqfKn3J5YmOIRM3j6e https://www.desmos.com/calculator/2vdjtkjutc - SOHO West-Southwest to East-Northeast CME of September 13th, 2005 This line of impact is close enough to the edge that the solar wind affected the CME quickly. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1hOLFc-O23zypaddqyKZsNx7MfkGGBjYe https://www.desmos.com/calculator/teqln1ixil - SOHO South-Southeast to North-Northeast CME of September 6th, 2017 https://drive.google.com/open?id=15jwtyXbvhHKZowesj9ersMsmjGW8NouY https://www.desmos.com/calculator/xhehoqyyls - SOHO South-Southwest to North-Northeast https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qi1os6wnm8 - STEREO A West to East The sheaths can be explained as well. The solar wind effects the CME on all sides including the front shock by shock. The below CMEs sheaths only reach to or overtake A0B1. CME of July 25th, 2004 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1hu_2MVRe_H4O7fymejjoUjRhI6itAuOF CME of January 17th, 2005 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ypamknXNW3NK-4x_GJt3UQSs-dCTkyTY CME of May 13th, 2005 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1zPvF4R2lSEpCMkhFCZylDcxN3jml00ga CME of November 3rd, 2010 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1v9jTO8UcUsMOIGqnwQsrRBMyK_egNyP_ CME of October 10October 10th, 2011 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1vwKr7ZMn2zrLXcHbt3pMKjm09-dapkIQ CME of October 14th, 2011https://drive.google.com/open?id=14iq8bPxFULKyVFYTgPPGrsByd08uZ6_m CME of July 2nd, 2012 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Dker24jju9EskwEE3sV5K_jHPXko8ZTu CME of July 23rd, 2012 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1kwWH53pCTA8UcGVU5CZebdP1EPe0C5NL CME of August 19th, 2013 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1GvTcY5oMCvpDiF_kJNEC98ByEOLCera- CME of September 10th, 2014 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1FJuoT6vy4Vv6IFRfNjlioonO4_aUZkoQ Most of the details of how I came to this point can be seen in the first post of this topic. Here is where the abbreviation A and B came from along with a C. They are simply from a graphing calculator. This is how I calculate the estimated positions of the Shocks and Half Shocks. t is the travel time, s is the arrival time of the arrival date, and g is any of the shocks to help show the position of each Shock and Half Shock down to the minute. The September 6th, 2017 CME is used as an example. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1BdrSdiBgM9VKy507Fa3-w7OSDlwwCxof So there is the structure. This is just the start and there is much more to learn. The Half Shock goes by the second root. It is possible that more features of each layer will become more detailed going past two. Knowing which shock/shocks will be strongly shock driven in advanced is unknown, but there are patterns available to tell where they are most likely to be shock driven. I don't know how many questions there would be on how CMEs overtake other CMEs, but there are several good events to work with.
  2. That would make sense. What I noted was somewhat the mid-point. In this case the effects of the CH would have started on the 4th.
  3. This was simply from a small Coronal Hole High Speed Stream. Note the velocities rise as the proton density falls. From the image below here is the SWPC's link https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
  4. I did mess around to create a CME model a while back to get the correct curving of the CME structure. I'm not sure that the margin of error is, but it seems fairly close. This is the CME of September 10th, 2017. The central core is very small leading to a narrow leading shock. STEREO B's C2 imagery most likely would have been M3 or M4 if it was online. Two different preliminary curved structures are below. The orange circle would be the sun and the line intervals are in Rsun. As well, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a Happy New Years all.
  5. Hello, Solar maximums do have the most solar activity, but on the extreme side the possibility of complex sunspot regions resulting in some powerful CMEs may be possible at almost any moment of the solar cycle. There were some CMEs from 2005 and September 2017 nearing solar minimum for examples. At 0.3AU the IMF strength is around 60nT while at 8AU the IMF is down to near 0.5nT and it will keep getting weaker. The MESSENGER satellite made a pass by Earth with with a strength of 20600nT and the Sun's magnetic field will be much stronger.
  6. I've shared my up to date method above, but I don't think I have ever actually gone into further detail with imagery examples so I have some created now. SOHO C3's FOV is near 32Rsun (Field of View near 32 Solar Radii) and the STEREO satellites C2 imagery has a FOV of 15Rsun. In the following images I will show the two coronagraph points in time for using my method. For the STEREO satellites the points in time are estimated to 16Rsun to make the calculations easier to work with. These first two CMEs below have one slide that shows the leading shock in green and secondary shock in red. I will start out with a M5 CME from STEREO A that launched on August 18th, 2010. M5 Launch Time: 2010/08/18 05:52Z C P1 Time: 07:40Z C P2 Time: 10:30Z C Range: 2:50 * 2 (STEREO is multiplied by 2 to use with the current Multiplier's graph) C Mean Time: 09:05Z Mean Range: 3:13 * 2 Multiply By: 8.63 Estimated Arrival: 2010/08/20 13:23Z Arrival: 2010/08/20 16:12Z This CME is from SOHO's imagery on September 10th, 2014. M3 Launch Time: 2014/09/10 17:38Z C P1 Time: 22:30Z C P2 Time: 22:30Z C Range: 00:00 C Mean Time: 22:30Z Mean Range: 4:52 Multiply By: 8.91 Estimated Arrival: 2014/09/12 13:00Z Arrival: 2014/09/12 15:26Z This CME from SOHO on September 13th, 2005 has secondary shocks on two sides, but the two coronagraph points are from the leading shock. M2 Launch Time: 2005/09/13 20:05Z C P1 Time: 22:50Z C P2 Time: 07:00Z C Range: 8:10 C Mean Time: 02:55Z Mean Range: 6:50 Multiply By: 5.27 Estimated Arrival: 2005/09/15 08:06Z Arrival: 2005/09/15 08:28Z M0 CMEs like the one that impacted STEREO A on July 23rd, 2012 will have the smallest arrival time offset possible compared to all Multiplies above it. M0 Launch Time: 2012-07-23 02:33Z C P1 Time: 04:10Z C P2 Time: 04:54Z C Range: 00:44 * 2 C Mean Time: 04:32Z Mean Range: 1:59 * 2 Multiply By: 4.65 Estimated Arrival: 2012/07/23 20:57Z Arrival: 2012/07/23 20:36Z These 4 examples are forecasted already knowing the Multiplier. Data sees and gave us the shapes of CMEs, we need to learn to see them too.
  7. I am back to update where I am with my research of Coronal Mass Ejections. To start out, I need to go back to the very beginning. Being interested in Earth's severe weather, the Coronal Mass Ejection of June 22nd, 2015 gave a new interest in space weather and CMEs. I was looking up the parameters and tried to learn all of the basics, the solar wind, IMF, K and Kp indices, etc. There was a lack of severe weather at the time and it wasn't too long before the time of Hurricane Patricia that I began my research. I started out with Coronal Holes, but eventually I thought I might as well try to see if I can find a way to predict the time of CME arrivals. My goal for predicting a CME's arrival time was by using one satellite's Coronagraph imagery and the time of launch. Using SOHO's LASCO C3 imagery, SDO's AIA 131 imagery and ACE and Wind solar wind data to try and find some sort of pattern. I made run after run after run of trial and error using different calculations and points in time from the imagery. I did eventually find a pattern and the image below is the final graph where I have points on paper. This begins a chain reaction to several new discoveries. Here are the steps used per CME to put a point on the graph. 1. Get the difference of the CME launch time to arrival time in hours. The launch time that I use is when the CME reaches 2.5Rsun from the surface of the Sun. 2. In the C3 imagery, get the point in time of when the CME first reaches the edge of the FOV and a second point in time when the opposite side of the imagery reaches the edge of the FOV. The difference between these two times in hours is the X-Axis in the graph above. 3. From step 2 get the time between the two imagery points and get the difference from the launch time. Divide the travel time from step 1 by this step's number and this is the Y-Axis on the graph. Briefly moving forward to mid 2018 I was able to discover the exact base formula for what is seen in the image above. The formula is y=cos(pi*x)-(x/sqrt(pi/2)) and with adjustments made for the C3 image Field of View and L1 position it results to the graph below. I will say there was a huge amount of luck because a minimal amount of changes had to be made to the formula for SOHO's FOV and L1 position, compared to changes that would need to be made for the STEREO satellites. So now we have a problem. There are multiple lines and I am now stuck because I was expecting one line. I was even marking out or skipping data points in the first graph thinking I made a mistake somewhere. It can't be due to changes of the distance from the Sun, or the pattern wouldn't exist. The Coronagraph FOV is near constant, so that is ruled out. Randomly shaped CMEs are also ruled out because again, the pattern wouldn't exist. This is where I step away from the project for a while until the CME of September 10th, 2017. Sunspot region 2673 came and went and I am now back to my research project with a sort of cleared mind. The September 10th CME is what brought a major breakthrough. In SOHO's C3 imagery and STEREO A's C2 imagery you can see a bulge ahead of a larger trailing shock. I look around at other CMEs and I now know why there are multiple lines on the graph. A CME can have two faces, a leading and secondary shock. To say if the secondary shock was right behind the leading shock, given the distance from the sun to the secondary shock multiplied by sqrt(pi/2) gives the position of the leading shock. The 2D illusions are gone and now have the leading structure of CMEs. The lines on the graphs have a new name, Multipliers. The Multiplier is only determined by the Coronagraph imagery and not the overall CME. A very, very preliminary image from this time of the research is below to sort of show the shape. Now looking back at both graphs at the top of the post, the first doesn't show all of the lines. It wasn't until I ran calculations on STEREO A's July 23rd, 2012 CME to find the lowest Multiplier. The old Multiplier 0, or M0, then became M2. At this current time I only know of 2 other M0 CME Coronagraph views from SOHO and STEREO B. Like how the graph is created, the same process can be done to see what we are looking at through Coronagraph imagery by using the Multipliers. Each Multiplier's type of Coronagraph view and impacts are below. M0 - These are still partially a mystery to me. What I currently know is that they are narrower CMEs and are closer they appear with a leading shock impact. M1 - These have a leading shock impact and are similar to M0 CMEs, but have a buckled outer shock as the secondary shock with a leading shock impact. M2 - A leading shock impact where the two view points are the leading shock. M3 - A leading shock impact where the two view points are a leading and secondary shock. M4 - A leading shock impact where the two view points are the secondary shock. M5 - A secondary shock impact where the two view points are a leading and secondary shock. M6 - A secondary shock impact where the two view points are the secondary shock. I wanted to keep going and my next goal has changed to figure out the CME structure. I know how important it will be. Going into this I know of sqrt(pi/2) and I know where the leading and secondary shocks are. Knowing those things I did what I know best, messing around with the numbers until I found a pattern. Eventually run after run after run I was able to find the CME structure while comparing imagery and solar wind data. The result shows CMEs have 3 layers, a central core, a middle layer, and an outer layer. A direct impact through the central core will result in hitting 5 internal shocks. Going further, there is a half shock between each layer. The image below shows almost every type of impact possible and is to scale, but does not account for the correct curve. A question would be how does the structure hold together? My guess is has something to do with the magnetic structure of CME's, but at this point it's something I can't answer. Another question would be how do the different shapes come together? My current answer would be that it is determined by the size of the central core and how explosive the CME is. If there is too much push the middle and outer layers will begin to buckle, but the chances are there are a few other factors as well. As for the internal shocks, I call them shocks for a reason. It varies, but CMEs can be shock driven at any shock. It can be almost similar to the arrival of the CME. As far as I currently know, CMEs can be shock driven all the way back to the last internal shock at minimum. As this is most likely new, I gave simple names to the constants and this is basically what I have used on a calculator. This is how the position of how each shock can be calculated. A = sqrt(pi/2) - This is used for the position of a shock B = Second Root of A - This is used for the position of a half shock. Going past beyond the second root is uncertain and will require more research to be able to see if things become more detailed. Examples of how I will refer to this is that the leading and secondary face of a CME is A0. The duration of the far shock is A0-A2. An impact through the edge of the central core would have impacted A0, A1, A2, A4, A5, A6, and not A3. A middle layer impact has half shock impacts at A0B1, A1B1-A4B1, A5B1. Below are examples of the different types of impacts. Inside each graph I have lines marking each shock. Red lines are the first half shock while blue is the second half. A black line ends the CME, unless disrupted by another CME or CH. In the top left corner of each image is Coronagraph imagery. In the top right corner of each image is my best estimated line of impact through the CMEs and they do not account for the correct curve of the CME. There is a graph for the CME's IMF, Velocity, and Proton Density. One of the best CMEs that I know of is a M0 CME that impacted STEREO B on November 8th, 2013. In the image below, the final internal shock is shown as being shock driven with the velocities at A5. All 4 previous internal shocks are seen in the IMF. The line of impact was through the far edge of the A3 shock, where the magnetic field is disrupted, making the central core visible through the IMF data. An example of an impact through the A3 centr al core shock is a M2 CME that Wind on November 24th, 2001. A sign of this type of impact is when there is a close mirrored IMF shift near A2B1.5 to A3B0.5. An example of an impact through the edge of the central core, missing the A3 shock, is the CME that hit STEREO A on July 23rd, 2012. This is a M0 CME. A sign of this type of impact is gradual changes of the IMF through A2-A4. An example of a M2 CME middle layer impact is a CME that impacted ACE on May 23rd, 2002. The IMF remains near constant from A1B1-A4B1 as it runs through the middle layer. An example of a buckled middle core impact is a M3 CME that impacted STEREO A on September 11th, 2010. This CME is closest to the T-intersections of the central core and middle layers. This may result in a sudden change of the IMF like in the image below. The IMF will also gradually change from A1-A3. An example of a buckled outer core impact is a M3 CME that impacted ACE on April 11th, 2001. Due to the leading shock extending from A0-A2, there may be some issues with the CME being shock driven. This CME below may have had a little help from behind from another CME. It became shock driven at A3B1-A4 at the end of the buckled middle layer. An example of a M5 secondary shock impact CME is from Wind on November 10th, 2000. The CME misses the A2 internal shock and becomes shock driven at A2B1-A3. An example of a M5 far shock impact on DSCOVR is the CME of September 12th, 2017. There isn't much to these impacts. Once the CME passes, there may be a little wall of higher proton density from the solar wind trailing it. This has gone well beyond where I thought this would lead to and what I have previously posted about, but this post is to close this chapter of my research. I still need to reach the goal of reliable CME arrival time forecasting using my method, so at some point in the future another chapter may begin.
  8. Hello, I have some new preliminary information. I've already posted about 2 different leading shocks we can be impacted by. After looking into the internal structure of a CME though there may be possibly be 7 shocks(I might need a different name for it later) total with the final being the exit. The positions of each can be calculated. The cores between each shock are made of two halves and further details are still to be determined. The CME degrades from the end to the leading edge over time. While looking into the internal structure of a CME I needed to know when exactly does a CME launch. When backtracking CMEs currently I ended up coming to when the leading edge of a CME is at around 2.5 solar radii from the sun that seems to be the time of launch. This is still preliminary, but after some time I noticed that is around 1.25 solar diameter. That just happens to be similar to the square root of pi/2, so what are the odds that is where that number comes from. This is very preliminary, I'm not sure of all cases of it, but if one CME runs over another CME it seems to be pushed by the other and becomes very small. If it impacts Earth the second CME would arrive a few hours after the first CME impact.
  9. Well, I though I'd give an update on the current progress of this project. It might be a while until I get to working on this again until a get a pile of work done. I've attempted to contact the correct people at NASA that might take interest in this, and so far there's been no luck with that. I guess this will be a solo project along with the help and ideas from others here until I prove what it can do. I have been working on this a little and I think I have the exact base formula, y=cos(pi*x)-(x/sqrt(pi/2)). I have a modified version for the use of my method of CME arrival time prediction, but I know it's has a ways to go and I'll need to do calculations from the STEREO spacecrafts to finish that also. Edit: I did make one more attempt and was finally able to contact the correct person.
  10. Here is the math I have on CME arrival times. The one thing that all of the full halo CMEs have in common is this, 'y=(1/(40x+28500))(x+1765)^2-100' (or at least really really close). First, you need to get three times, 1st the time when the CME exits the sun in a SDO AIA 131 image, 2nd is the time of when the CME edge first hits the outer circle in the LASCO C3 image, and the 3rd from that point where the CME first hit the outer edge of the circle in the C3 image, go around the outer circle 180 degrees and get the time of when the CME hits that point. Then the math, get the difference of time #2 and #3 and write that down as time #4, get the time that is between time #2 and #3 and write that down as time #5, then get the difference of time #1 and time #5 and turn that into all minutes and write it down as number #6. Next, turn time #4 into minutes and put that number as x into the equation y=(1/(40x+28500))(x+1765)^2-100 and you now have #7. Now multiply #7 by #6 and you have the estimated travel time in minutes, just change that to days hours and minutes and add it to time #1. The issues are mainly if the image isn't clear like CME #1 a week ago, or there is a big chunk or missing images, then you are left to guessing the time of when it gets to the edge of the C3 circle edge and the time will likely be way off. Currently what I have is for CMEs where you need to guess one of either time #2 or #3 is likely +-3 hours off the arrival time and perfectly clear CMEs are at +-1.5 hours off the arrival time. For the equation, there is a lack of data before x=80 and after x=580, so I just went with the pattern and guessed and will need to modify the equation once there are some clear events to get that data from. The next thing I want to work on is get the arrival time from inside of the C3 image circle and not need to get times #2 and #3 from faint CMEs all the way at the edge of the C3 circle.
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