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  1. 2 points
    This certainly does reinforce the idea that something very different is happening; North and South seem to be unusually far out of step, perhaps increasingly so since around 2002/3. The peaks of SC24 differing significantly and now apparently a very different bottoming. Will South stay zeroed until North achieves that bottom level or do its own thing? If it does stay flat, that could give us the long, extended minimum that has been predicted. I took the liberty of stitching together the two parts of your chart to get an overall visual impression of the data. Added to your ideas, one can see that higher latitude activity seems much reduced and more diffuse SC24 compared to SC23, again reinforcing the idea of possible dynamo related activity reducing overall turbulence. Combining these two concepts, plus the changes we have already discussed, should imply a change of base-line state – but that is pure speculation. Can I take this opportunity of wishing Seasons Greetings to all, and very best wishes for the New Year and indeed, the New Decade !
  2. 2 points
    If I understood NOAA's document correctly they are only wrong at very very low solar activity. The old sensors just weren't sensitive enough for such quiet conditions. You will see more more variability during quiet solar periods. They also removed a correction factor which has been in place for a very long time. Open the hyperlink from my first post. You can read all about it in the document from the NOAA SWPC.
  3. 2 points
    I’ve been following the conversation in this thread and I must say it’s been a great one to follow. I love the flow and trying to uncover what’s going on with our Sun with you guys. I’ve been a “wisdom scholar” learning about the Sun and how it effects us on Earth since 2010 when the Chili quake happened. I’m an intuitive, I notice patterns. I believe we cannot say if this is the calm before the storm but I think we can say it “feels” like a deep.. deeeeep minimum. It’s definitely creating climate change on a quicker scale than we may even realize right now. My question is where is the Suns location exactly? Is it in a dense part of a cloud in the Local Bubble? Is that the culprit?
  4. 1 point
    A 'change' happened; you can see this consequent change in the most recent synoptic magnetogram: Figure 1. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface, at practically all latitudes. Think of the 'aggregate of activity' highlighted in Figure 1 as a large 'torsional oscillation' within the solar plasma, indicating the resonant-oscillator cavity is being tuned up...but for what, or how? Is the Quality Factor of the resonant-oscillator cavity proceeding to rise in conjunction with the following planetary setup to occur around Dec. 28, 2019?: Figure 2. Is the 'solar radio' and adjoining electromagnetic cavity resonator getting tuned in accordance with the above setup? So is the 'planetary setup', presented above in Figure 2, offering opportunity for the sun to display a (significant-in-size) photospheric magnetic structure above the critical 32deg latitude? Stay 'tuned' to find out, and welcome to the new era of heliospheric forecasting.😁
  5. 1 point
    On your 'Home Page' under the 'Space Weather Facts' you list the number of spotless days as 39. When I check the SILSO site of the Royal Belgium Observatory they list the last sunspot occurring on November 13, 2019. Their Stretch of Spotless days is 26. Could you identify the data source for your Spotless Numbers? --The Novitiate
  6. 1 point
    So now at this deep minimum point in the current solar cycle, the development of spatially large global magnetic fields enables the development of very large prominences before they are sloughed off, unlike more chaotic magnetic periods when active photospheric magnetic structures on the disk break up the large fields, thus not allowing such large prominences to grow. So just in the past 48 hours, one can see the increased activity of these very large prominences being released from the sun. In the images below, I point out some examples of what to look for, but I recommend going over to SDO to watch the 48 hour movies to really enjoy the show.
  7. 1 point
    The source of the data is the ftp://ftp.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/home/obs/kp-ap/ap_monyr.ave file found here. (The data has been smoothed with a centered-moving-average.) Thank you to The Atmosphere Guy for pointing out, in this thread yesterday, the anomalous Ap behavior over the past solar cycle.
  8. 1 point
    Hey Guys! Today the Noaa Swpc switched to Goes 16, right? Since then the Solar Flux isnt around A8 anymore, its A0,1. Is that a reading mistake or did the scale change with the new satellite? If somebody could explain all the new things to me, and how to read them, that'd be nice. Thanks! Ps: i will post a picture of another graph (electron flux) and Goes16 (shown in blue) is crazy-spiking there as well...im so confused
  9. 1 point
    On Novembert 13th there was a new region number assigned to a very shirt lived spot. SWPC didn't count it as a sunspot that was visible at midnight local time. SILSO of the SIDC did count it as a day with a tiny speckle on the sun. The official numbers should be from SILSO as they are the official source of the sunspot number. Probably, because of the time difference between the recording of SILSO and SWPC, the tiny speckle wasn't visible anymore and thus by that instance not counted.
  10. 1 point
    Thank you for the link. I went back to my research ten years ago and compared what I was 🤔 contemplating to what we know today. I’m still “feeling” this is the calm before the storm. I’d be interested to know what your views are regarding my research. I can link you to the forum if you don’t mind reading an amateur type of research. 😂 Also, saw this yesterday and I think the last sentence says it all. “ Our Sun may exit the Local Cloud, also called the Local Fluff, during the next 10,000 years. Much remains unknown about the local ISM, including details of its distribution, its origin, and how it affects the Sun and the Earth. Unexpectedly, recent IBEX spacecraftmeasurements indicate that the direction from which neutral interstellar particles flow through our Solar System is changing” https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130924.html
  11. 1 point
    The data from the facts module comes from SWPC and not SILSO. On November 13th SWPC didn't counted region 2752 as a new region that had any sunspot and didn't register a sunspot number for that day. The spot was very short-lived and SWPC probably decided not to count it. SWPC did say there was a new region, but decided that it hadn't any spots left when they published their data and thus had a Sunspot number of 0 with 0 spots counted. SILSO however did count it as a region with 1 spot. That's why there's a difference.
  12. 1 point
    Here is an article discussing a probe's relatively recent interactions with interstellar medium, including a paper citation: http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/News-Center/News-Article.php?page=20191202 I find it somewhat questionable, on first blush, regarding their claim that solar EM radiation is ionizing incoming particles 'way out there'; interesting.
  13. 1 point
    Thanks for the quick answer, Marcel! My Question is just, are the "old" readings wrong? Or has like the format changed? I mean, does the new A0,8 equal A8 from the old Geos Satellite? I hope that doesnt sounds too confusing, im originally from germany. Im rather new to all the Spaceweather Stuff, thats why i gotta learn
  14. 1 point
    You are very much correct. They switched to GOES 16 for the GOES primary today. The very low X-ray reading is correct. The GOES-16 X-ray sensor is much more sensitive especially during very low solar activity. It is all explained in the following document. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/GOES 16 XRS Updates and Status.pdf
  15. 1 point
    Quite agree, the red lines are never to be taken too seriously, they just give a general idea of the outline thinking. The aspect I am interested in are the actual measurements, in particular my old favourite the 'Ap' index. As predicted above, this has now been released for November and has been set at 4 Almost certainly - unless something dramatic happens - this will be '3' or even '2' for December which would put us into 2009/10 territory.
  16. 1 point
    TAG, based on observations up to this point in time, and already discussed in this forum, do you really think these 'Predicted Values' make any sense? Where did they get these predictions? Don't they look somewhat ridiculous at this point in time? Would not these 'predictions' (i.e., the red lines) make sense only if we were going into something as radical as the Kishtiavili Kitiashvili forecast, or lower? I can understand that maybe these predictions were a long-shot when first made years ago...but aren't they going to update them when it becomes apparent that those predicted scenarios are not going to pan out?
  17. 1 point
    Haven’t been able to track down any update on that density chart; however, in absence of a specific pressure/density measurement, the Thermosphere Climate Index together with the Ap index give us a general indication of what is happening up there. It is possible, though perhaps a bit speculative, to make the assumption that the Ap index for the period, being a measure of the solar activity impact on the geo environment, gives us a picture of what the sun is - or was - doing; the NASA density measurement tells us what impact that has on the earth’s atmosphere – at least at upper levels – and the ‘Snowmageddon’ records tell us what impact that had at surface level. Projecting that forward tends to support theories that the current projected slowdown could have significant climatological impacts. We can only wait and see. Boulder CO’s Solar Cycle Progression figures should be released in the next day or two which should give some interesting pointers. Give my regards to Nashville, was there, plus Knoxville, Memphis last month – Great place, beautiful area!
  18. 1 point
    TY Artist I read articles you linked which show the constantly changing field in Teslas. I liked the portion which shows affect of Tesla field strength on “magnetosphere.” Is this an instant change or is it latent? I did not know that Tesla had his own unified field theory which attempts explanation of relation between gravity and electromagnetic forces. I believe Tesla earns some street cred in his theory. If Tesla is correct then the constant field changes measured in Tesla are relative to gravity and vice versa. Out star cant be an exemption to the rule. Considering the earth magnetosphere is so easily manipulated by our star, what of the maipulation of the heliosphere by the MW galactic core? Dont mean to sound too crazy and my name is in relation to my understanding but sometimes you have to listen to the little people. What is the net gravity effect on gravity (our star) for change/Tesla (heliosphere/heliopause) from galactic core and can this account for changes in our star? From this can a theory be inferred that our stars Solar output is inverse to galactic core field strength (teslas) such that; Our star has decreased output during periods of high Tesla output from galactic core and increased output during periods of low Tesla output from the galactic core. Our star would then be kept in check (during solar minimums) and not allowed to act out when the MW galactic core Tesla output is above a certain output and vice versa our star begins its solar max cycle when the tesla strength from the galactic core is low? Thats a reach for sure.
  19. 1 point
    Thank you for the warm welcome. I couldn’t explain it in scientific terms so I appreciate the clarity even though it was given to you. Sorry about that but thank you again for being patient in explaining what I meant. 😂 What I quoted above is what I find to be so spot on, link included. It just seems the most logical to me. Also, shouldn’t Voyager 1 be able to tell us by now what the local interstellar cloud is like in more detail? I’ll have to check to see if any detailed reports have come out yet. I believe it went up in 2003?
  20. 1 point
    The ‘K’ index (and its ‘A’ derivatives) is defined as, in essence, a mathematical representation of the intensity of the impact of solar storm energies – in all of the various forms – on the earthly environment. That would include both CMEs from sunspots and the solar wind, so a variation in flow pressure/velocity and density – such as that from a coronal hole or similar disturbance would be measured as a variation in Ap. Your graphs do show what appears to be a general slowdown, in addition to the 2003 surge and Halloween Storm followed by the ‘03/’09 drop off. We seem to have an interesting position just at the moment, Solar wind is weak, the sun is spotless, TC index is declining steadily, coronal hole activity is fading – is this the calm before the storm, or a continued run-down? Ap levels are likely to be even lower than my earlier guess possibly now 4 and then 3, depending how Boulder chooses to round the figures – up or down.
  21. 1 point
    TAG, please look at the following graph (data from OMNIweb) . . Is this graph an explanation as to why there was a dramatic lowering of the Ap over the past solar cycle?!? Have you seen this discussed before? Assuming we can believe it (meaning, the data has at least ballpark accuracy, whereby data acquired from different satellite platforms is properly accounted for), the above graph is telling us that there has been a dramatic drop in the volume of matter in the solar wind, starting about 20 years ago. Do you agree? What do you think about that? I think the above graph provides reasons for the “anomalous drop” in the Ap. The Flow Pressure can be derived by multiplying the Velocity of the wind (squared) by the ‘mass density’ of the proton matter (with an adjustment for alpha particles and electrons). Flow Pressure is plotted below, along with the sunspot number: It would make sense that a lower Flow Pressure is, generally, going to result in a lower Ap, yes?
  22. 1 point
    Hi! Im wondering why the Density of the Solar Wind today is relatively "High" with constant +10 ? I didnt hear about any Coronal Hole thats expected to impact us today nor a CME. Usually, the density is about 1-5.
  23. 1 point
    Hello and welcome. Most of the comets that approach the Sun burn up long before they can impact the Sun but it does happen that very large comets survive long enough before they hit the Sun. We can sometimes see comets on coronagraph satellite imagery as they approach the Sun. This YouTube video gives you a great example. I can't really answer your second question but comets do not trigger solar flares or CMEs. Imagine throwing a pebble in the Atlantic ocean. That is comparable to what a comet impact looks like on the Sun.
  24. 1 point
    Your thinking is much along the same lines as my own and is well supported by the data. The potential for an extended minimum seems to show up in all of the data; the ‘Ap’ environment seems to be stuck in a ‘pre-minimum’ zone slightly above where one might expect it to have descended to, the ‘lighthouse’ CH structure going round like a stuck record. This seems to be supported by the TSI chart. There is an interesting paper by Lisa Upton and David Hathaway; I quote from the summary: “After the exceptionally weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24), there is considerable interest in accurately predicting the amplitude of the coming Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). In 2016, the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) Model was used to make such a prediction. We now have two additional years of solar data. Here we compare the results of the previous prediction to the observations that have since occurred. We then use the additional two years of data to create an updated prediction, with a much smaller uncertainty. We predict that SC25 will be about slightly smaller (∼95%) (than) the strength of SC24, making it the weakest solar cycle in the last hundred years. We also predict that, like SC24, SC25 will be preceded by a long extended solar minimum. Finally, these results indicate that we are now in the midst of a Modern Gleissberg Minimum”. The “...long extended solar minimum....” being particularly relevant.
  25. 1 point
    We received an anonymous response to this topic: I don't see any strange things on the solar images. The spots are nothing out of the ordinary, the line you say they form is rather coincidence and doesn't reflect on magnetogram. brighter zones on the disk are more often at the line of where sunspots may form or where sunspots are so it's normal to mee that there are some bright spots near the equator as we are in solar minimum. Once SC25 gets through we'll see spots higher and lost likely some bright spots without regions in the higher latitude.
  26. 1 point
    My principle concern is the sudden anomalous drop in the 'Ap' chart that was noted at the start of this thread. That, coupled with the apparent 'wind down' evident from 2003, is I would suggest, unparalleled in our data. If that turns out to be a temporary aberration and we revert to something more representative of previous states I would consider that a "return to normal". If, as seems an alternative, that represents a 'step change' to a 'new normal' as you describe, and that continues for a protracted period, as I mentioned, then we may see significant changes at planetary level. Fascinating times !
  27. 1 point
    It is, as you say, enigmatic. That the sun is not behaving in the manner to which we are accustomed is evident in all of the graphs. Whether this is due to external factors such as planetary clocking or to the internal mechanisms of the sun – or both, we can only guess and try to spot the clues. We can see from the MSL chart that mesosphere temperatures are falling significantly; NLCs started unusually early this year, TC index is low and likely to continue lower. My favourite graph, the ‘Ap index’, seems to be ‘Flat-lining’ as do spots. We know that the ‘Butterfly Gap’ was wider than average last time around, and looks like being wider still this time. So what are the implications? If we see a sudden return to ‘normal’ then perhaps we carry on much as before. However if the ‘Flat-Line’ situation continues for a protracted period and struggles to rise we can assume that upper level temperatures will continue to decline and may struggle to achieve previous peak levels. But what then of temperatures lower down. We know that the atmosphere contracts under cooling conditions. Stratospheric level thermal and pressure profiles contract towards the equator pulling polar structures with them. The ‘Sea – Land Differential’ becomes the dominant influence on surface weather patterns which in turn tend to become rigidly stable – so the conditions you’ve got are what you keep, often for a long time, floods in some places, drought in others. It’s an interesting thought experiment playing with the possibilities !
  28. 1 point
    It would seem so on that graph, indeed both IMF per the graph and Ap seem 'Rangebound' over the last year or so. A rough guestimation of Ap for this month would put it at 'around 5', (see if the chaps in Boulder agree with me). It will be an interesting indicator to see what happens in December - the negative swing of the R-M effect. Again on a rough guestimate based on current forecasts it looks like being 'around 4' - similar to 2008 - rather than the deep dives of 2009 onwards. If we then stay in the 4 to 7 range with light coronal hole activity and little in the way of spots for a prolonged period it could have some interesting connotations!
  29. 1 point
    There should be some relationship between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF, measured at 1AU) and earth's geomagnetic indices. Solar scholars have attempted correlations of IMF with Ap, and Polar Field strength for the purposes of Solar Cycle prediction. One theory is that during solar minimum, the IMF becomes more heavily influenced by the sun's polar fields, thus reflecting the strength of those fields, which are the seed to the solar dynamo magnetic activity of the following cycle. Consider the following graph: Does not the above graph of IMF suggest the strength of the overall solar magnetic field in the current minimum is stronger than at a similar point in the last minimum?
  30. 1 point
    Sebastien -The storm that wouldn’t die! There has been an interesting sequence of events associated with “Sebastien” Much has been said about the “lighthouse beam” coronal hole (which has declined significantly this time around) however less well mentioned is a smaller companion hole which has preceded it each rotation. This time the smaller one was recorded as : CH944 trans equatorial 2019.11.12-2019.11.13 : (impact) 2019.11.16-2019.11.17 : 2/2/(Ap)9 : 433 ref. CH940 By Tuesday Nov. 19th Sebastien had popped up, TS advisory No.1 recording winds 40-50kts; expected to have dissipated by 22nd/1200. By P.M. 20th, advisory No.7 recorded winds 60 MPH with the possibility it could become a hurricane - based on its initial rate of growth. The stronger (though not as big as previously) “lighthouse” hole impacted 21st-23rd Nov: CH945 trans equatorial 2019.11.16-2019.11.18 : (impact) 2019.11.21-2019.11.23 : 2/4/(Ap)22 : 591 ref. CH941 By 22nd the Hurricane centre reported (Their Caps) TENACIOUS SEBASTIEN DOES NOT KNOW IT IS NOVEMBER AND REFUSES TO WEAKEN (22/11) - SEBASTIEN REFUSES TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...(23/11) Although never quite making hurricane strength it refused to die out , accelerated, and continues north-eastward towards UK and Europe with sustained winds of 55kts. Surface conditions - sea temp/atmosphere should have allowed the storm to die out as initially predicted. Meanwhile in the Pacific, similar cyclonic activity in the form TS “Fung Wong” arose in Luzon Strait at the same time with a similar pattern of behaviour. Over the same period, TC index ceased its previous rapid decline and rose to 3.92x1010 The ‘coincidence’ between CH impacts and terrestrial storm behaviour seems to continue.
  31. 1 point
    That is very much possible. It might be a maneuver that will see them disable such instruments temporarily. That would be nothing out of the ordinary. I am sure the data will be available soon again if that is the case.
  32. 1 point
    The most accurate way (I believe) is the date is where the SC25 spots start to equal the SC24 spots. Right now there is a SC25 plaque on the southern hemisphere, and there was a SC25 spot last month I believe. If this trend continues, we are just a few months away from the cross over period.
  33. 1 point
    That is a very interesting analysis. I look forward to seeing whether or not it happens as you say. How does this influence your thoughts on the max for CY-25?
  34. 1 point
    The irritating thing is that – as with all things in nature – it doesn’t always hold true. There are times when there appears to be little or no direct connection between the solar impacts and storm activity. Perhaps some, but after a delay, or even not at all. Identifying the how’s and why’s may take a lot more analysis! Thought process: Are there aspects of the heliospheric sheet and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere that periodically make the whole terrestrial structure more / less vulnerable to solar impacts at any one point / period in time ? Comments ?
  35. 1 point
    Another little addition to the files, if we examine the data surrounding the famous "Perfect Storm" of 29th October 1991, we can see that the influence of solar impacts 'May' be relevant to other surface storm activity, not just the tropical variety. Gets more interesting the further you push this concept. The immediacy of reaction tends to imply that there is more to the concept than just atmospheric expansion or even shock wave impacts. Electromagnetic effects have been proposed; a storm may be considered as a rapidly rotating conductive mass active within a magnetic field. Change or increase that field and rotation would/could/should increase. That particular period was very active overall from a solar impact viewpoint.
  36. 1 point
    Figure of Perseid meteor shower(source). In the above paper citation, was Professor Schuster possibly alluding to his personal observation of meteors, comets, and asteroids that seemed to have a waxing and waning synchronicity with the solar cycle? There is a cyclical flux of intergalactic material entering the solar system with the cyclical shrinking and swelling of the heliosphere. I'll try to find a reference for the amount of Galactic Cosmic Rays (discussed in this thread) that enter earth's atmosphere daily. Just the amount of meteoric material that falls on earth daily is 48.5 tons (44,000 kilograms), Meteors & Meteorites. Prof. Schuster was a contemporary of Theodor Wulf, who in 1909, "developed an electrometer, a device to measure the rate of ion production inside a hermetically sealed container, and used it to show higher levels of radiation at the top of the Eiffel Tower than at its base." (source).
  37. 1 point
    Other factors to consider: Interplanetary Shocks observed by the SOHO Proton Monitor
  38. 1 point
    Although the the wavy red lines in the above figures are somewhat inspired by Parker's famous paper, they are a 2D representation of the 3D heliospheric current sheet model, where the planetary positions fall at nodal points. Figure from Parker's famous paper. During this time period, did the transit of Mercury perturb the heliospheric current sheet setup, and in effect, contribute to the TRIGGER ALERT perturbations?
  39. 1 point
    Was the following (circled in blue) an eventual response to the particular type of disruptions revealed by the TRIGGER ALERTs in Aug-Sept, 2017?:(source). Below is the suggested heliospheric current sheet setup, for the outer gas giants (neglecting the detail of the inner solar system), going into the time period of those particular type of disruptions:
  40. 1 point
    Hi Nogar, I hope you can share and contribute here what you know on the topic. I'm pretty sure what I unveil above has never been published, at least to that detail. But I'm certainly open to being proven wrong.
  41. 1 point
    Hi, my son has epilepsy and his seizures are triggered by geomagnetic events. The stronger the event, the more difficult the seizure is to stop. We have backlogged all his seizures and continue to record data in a seizure journal, confirming this correlation. His sensitivity is so precise that his seizure activity occcurs instantaneously with the change in the geomagnetic field. We can see him having sudden onset symptoms and then go check space weather, and sure enough, there will be solar activity. This has been going on for 4 years, so we have obtained quite a bit of data. We are looking for anyone who is familiar with this condition so that it can be studied and we can provide better care for him. The neurologists and epileptologists in our area have no experience with this, but there have been numerous studies on this link between seizures and storms so there must be others who suffer with similar issues. Does this sound familiar to anyone?
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