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  1. 3 points
    I’m a newbie following the Solar weather in Tucson, Arizona. At 1:43 pm local time I was trying to use a compass to adjust the alignment of a pyramid I use for meditation. Magnetic North had moved about 18 degrees towards the West from where it was last night and the needle has been moving back towards the East now. My dogs are barking at nothing and I’m wondering if it’s the magnetic energy they feel. Now my compass won’t hold the North point. It keeps moving towards the East at a steady rate. It is 2:10 pm and the compass has stopped moving. It has moved about 30 degrees back towards the East from where it started at 1:45 pm and is about 17 degrees West of where the North point was last night. Any comments appreciated.
  2. 3 points
    I don’t think F10.7 matters to earth At all - but I think that UV and infrared irradiance levels matter greatly.. My thought is that UV is both a function of point/level in solar cycle (longer duration = lower UV level, ie less overall energy) and reduced even further at minimum by lack of solar activity/wind allowing O3 to flourish which further shields earth from UV. This reduction of super high energy reduces the ability of ice to melt and water to evaporate regardless of infrared/heat level.. ie reduces matter from changing state - which requires high energy above all else. Historically people have always said heat/infrared was the primary driver - but I think UV has a larger role then anyone has previously documented. Unfortunately, we do not have, and have not had for 10 years, (Source/Sim was decommissioned and was otherwise failing for the last 10 years) a way to accurately measure irradiance at different spectrums to prove this (crazy that we don’t..).. which also means no way to accurately measure earths energy balance during that time period either. As not all irradiance is equal.
  3. 2 points
    Hello all, We have decided to remove the ''Question forum'' and open a new forum in the Space Weather category. It is called ''Other'' and you are visiting this forum right now. Most of the topics posted in the old Question forum resulted in discussions and due to the way this old Question forums worked, all the posts were scrambled as they were ordered by the numbers of up votes each post received. This made it very confusing to follow the discussions. We welcome in this new ''Other'' forum any topic that fits within the general space weather theme but doesn't fit in the Solar Activity or Geomagnetic Activity forums. Questions can now be posted in any forum that fits your topic. We also want to address something else and that's topics about alternative science. SpaceWeatherLive is a serious website with two core goals: We aim to educate the general public about main stream space weather science and bring the latest space weather news and data all on one easy to navigate website. We do not get involved in topics about what we like to call alternative space weather science as this is not a topic that we cover on our website. We mean with alternative science, topics about coronal holes causing earthquakes and that kind of stuff. However we do think that everyone is free to believe what they want and we do not want to kill such discussions as soon as they pop up. There is obviously a significant audience that wish to discuss such topics and as long as the discussions remain civil and constructive we see no reason to ban such topics. However we do invite you to keep such topics in this forum and this forum only. We hope you understand our reasoning. One more thing... Yes... I couldn't think of a better name than ''Other'' for this forum so... if you got a better idea for a name feel free to reply. With kind regards, Marcel de Bont
  4. 2 points
    Thanks for the decision to allow for "Other" ideas to have a place. I made my first comment on this site under the quake/solar blog. One of those first comments by me was that I would have never commented here otherwise out of respect for the real work which you do on this site. I did have something to say about quakes and potential influences from cyclical processes of the sun. I also have been connecting the dots between a perceived correlation between solar cycles, hemispheric sunspot excess, and changes in the ENSO regions. For the first time I believe that I have finally found the connection between solar influences, and temperature shifts in the ENSO regions. I intend to prove my thoughts as correct this year by correctly forecasting shifts in the ENSO 3.4 region mainly, around 4 to 6 months before the temp shift occurs.
  5. 2 points
    First of all "theartist", thank you for teaching me the right concepts, then thank you for informing me about the error in the simulator, I have checked it now and Mercury is about 10 days too far ahead in its orbit. I have now adjusted for it and emerging sunspot we are seeing far south belonging to SC25 may be due to an Inferior Conjunction between Neptun and Mercury. So this was just a coincidense(Lucky) When I adjust further, I get the following chances for sunspots: 2020.02.09 +/- a few days sunpots slightly south of mid-latitude due to Inferior Conjunction between Mercury and Venus. Probably SC24 2020.02.16 +/- a few days sunspots north of mid-latitude due to Superior Conjunction between Mercury and Jupiter. This could be both SC24/25 2020.02.25 +/- a few days sunspots high north latitude due to Inferior Conjunction between Mercury and Earth. This will for sure belong to SC25. 2020.02.28 +/- a few days sunspots mid-latitude/slightly north due to Superior Conjunction between Venus and Jupiter. Probably SC24 I hope there is not another error in my simulator, but I will try to find another simulator for further predictions.
  6. 2 points
    Well, first of all, I don`t do serious work, just hobby Yes, the simulator I use shows Sun, Mercury and Venus in line approx 2020.01.31 However, sunspots emerge 3-6 days earlier than the actual date. Almost every prediction I have made (10-15) with this simulator the last 8-10month has happend. Even if the simulator does not show the correct position of planets, it is certainly good at predicting sunspots We`ll just has to wait and see how I do in my further predictions. If all my predictions are just luck, it will eventually run out..
  7. 2 points
    You may already know there is a pretty good proportional relationship between the sunspot counts and the F10.7cm flux (per discussion in this comment). But I think you may be asking the more interesting questions: "What is the physics going on by which electromagnetic (EM) characteristics and EM interaction of the planetary bodies can be affecting sunspots (and F10.7cm flux)"? "Are those same types of EM interrelationships somehow possibly influencing geological perturbations, like quakes and volcanoes, here on earth"? But it can affect radio communications. Yes. Although the cyclical expenditure of solar energy over the Schwabe cycle does not change much, there is a higher proportion of the shorter wavelength energy at solar maximum. Thanks! However, notice the Smoothed Maximum ISN of SC8 was 245, but only 116 for SC24. There are indeed similarities between SC9 and SC25, but differences in temporal phasing placement of the Jupiter/Saturn inferior conjunction and the Jupiter/Uranus inferior conjunction, and other positioning differences like maybe even Pluto's placement, will factor into differences in overall expression of sunspot peak activity between the two cycles. Possibly without realizing it, you may be attempting a different explanation of how the variance in the Solar Inertial Moment (SIM) and Barycenter analysis factors into cycle strength, although the SIM and Barycenter analysis typically is trying to conclude resultant tidal changes in the sun's positioning, possibly within its own atmosphere, is what is at play. What we know is that movement of electrically charged solar plasma induces magnetic fields, and I contend perturbations in the Quality Factor of the heliosphere EM cavity (due to changing planetary positions) are going to have effects on the expression of those magnetic fields.
  8. 2 points
    At this juncture, I'm not trying to forecast where spots will appear latitudinally. We are still in the solar minimum transition phase, in which the cycles will overlap; higher latitude spots will generally have next-cycle (i.e. SC25) polarity, while spots closer to the equator may possess polarity from either cycle, though will generally possess previous-cycle polarity.
  9. 2 points
    Thanks. That pore I pointed out earlier in this thread is not the spot that popped up today which is showing some nice magnetic intensity. True, it may die down long before it exits the west limb. However, we are now moving solidly into a Mars/Venus Superior Conjunction, while there still exists a bit of a long-range Neptune/Earth/Venus Conjunct. Mercury is now swinging around behind the east limb, so you may wish to watch the high latitude active region that's been in the STEREO-A imagery over the past few days. Bottom-line, will we consequently register spots almost daily for the rest of January? If so, the ISN monthly mean would end up >4, the first time that has happened since May of 2019! P.S. Michele, since you are a Pluto fan, we also have Earth roughly in-plane with Saturn and Pluto this coming week. 😊 There is more than gravitational tidal effects going on, my friend. For your reading pleasure, from the vaults of olden-times, uncovering secrets of past discoveries: (source of olden-times paper). Enjoy! 😄
  10. 2 points
    Sorry it took some time before my reply, but I only do this now and then *I don`t see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc. Due to Venus and Mercury align, which might "pull out" sunspots. *Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude. Due to Mercury is on the opposite side of Jupiter, (the tidal effect from Jupiter works both on the side of the sun facing Jupiter, and on the opposite side). However, here is more chanse of H-alpha plages without sunspots, I believe *Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots. Due to Mercury and Earth align, this will "pull out" sunspot on high north latitudes, belonging to SC25. I hope I hope I explained myself understandably. Today 01/24/2020 we can see a tiny, tiny spot Nice work Mr. "theartist"🏆
  11. 2 points
    From theartist science notebook series(©) (draft notes): Compute Duration of Magnetic Schwabe Cycle from Conjunction Periods of Gas Giants (source of above paper). The total average of whole number periods of gas giant conjunctions is 179.08 yrs, per cell E17 in the following spreadsheet computation: A whole number period of Magnetic Schwabe Cycles (16 cycles) computes the average duration to be 11.19 yrs, per cell C17 in the above spreadsheet computation. If we include planetary sidereal orbits in the total average of whole number periods, we compute a value of 176.20 yrs, per cell E18 in the following spreadsheet computation: A whole number period of Magnetic Schwabe Cycles (16 cycles) computes the average duration to be 11.01 yrs, per cell C18 in the above spreadsheet computation. So I ask you kind reader, does not the whole number periods of planetary conjunctions equating to whole number periods of the Magnetic Schwabe Cycle duration present very strong evidence that the latter is intimately interrelated to the former?
  12. 2 points
    I hope you can see from the above tables that SC25 alignment is not like SC6, primarily in their difference in the positioning of Uranus. There are yet unknown electromagnetic characteristics unique to each planet that may, as shown with Uranus, change depending upon their heliosphere positions, and from their interactions with other planets, and even with their own moons (Jupiter being a prime example). Therefore, starting out, with only limited knowledge on some of these factors, I will proceed to compare primarily with the patterns set up in SC9, because of its similarity in gas giant placement with that of SC25. Over time, as we learn more about the unique behaviors and caveats for certain conditions of the individual planets throughout their position in the heliosphere, will we be able to go back and extrapolate various pattern behavior in past cycles to improve our forecasting for future cycles. The 'Planetary Clocking Thesis' is founded on the fundamental understanding that in the scale of human lifetimes, our star is extremely consistent in the expenditure of its energy. There is only a slight cyclical variation over the 11.x yr Schwabe solar cycle. The vast majority of its energy expenditure is in the form of electromagnetic radiation (being a blackbody radiator), with only a very small percentage of its energy expenditure in the form of mass. Nonetheless, it is the latter that can disproportionately, percentage-wise, impact spaceweather.
  13. 2 points
    I just noticed that the linked article I provided for the (2) 'press conference' of 2011 does not mention a 'press conference'. But my research did find other articles on the topic in which there evidently was an official media release and 'press conference', like the following link: https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/is-the-sunspot-cycle-about-to-stop/ "In a press conference Tuesday morning (June 14th) they predicted that the current solar Cycle 24, which began about three years ago, will produce only half as many spots as the previous one. And, said Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory, Cycle 25 "may not actually happen." "At the press conference, the researchers explained the three suspicious signs." The 'media release' may have since been removed from the net, but with some research, one can still find it, which reads as follows: Contacts: Dave Dooling NSO Education and Public Outreach +1 575-434-7015 (office); +1 575-921-8736 (cell) dooling@nso.edu Craig DeForest AAS/SPD Press Officer +1 303-641-5679 (cell) deforest@boulder.swri.edu Text & Images (after the embargo expires): http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release (Media teleconference information at bottom of this release.) WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN? MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all. The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/ “This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.” Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715. Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24. “We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.” In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot. Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface. Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program at NSO’s Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO’s 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot. “A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.” Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward. “In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case.” All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while. “If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” # # # Media teleconference information: This release is the subject of a media teleconference at the current meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s Solar Physics Division (AAS/SPD). The telecon will be held at 11 a.m. MDT (17:00 UTC) on Tuesday, 14 June. Bona fide journalists are invited to attend the teleconference and should send an e-mail to the AAS/SPD press officer, Craig DeForest, at deforest@boulder.swri.edu, with the subject heading “SPD: SOLAR MEDIA TELECON”, before 16:00 UTC. You will receive dial-in information before the telecon. These results have been presented at the current meeting of the AAS/SPD. Citations: 16.10: “Large-Scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum -- Where Is Cycle 25?” by Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P. Larson, J. Schou & M. J. Thompson. 17.21: “A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor” by W. C. Livingston, M. Penn & L. Svalgard. 18.04: “Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona” by R. C. Altrock.
  14. 2 points
    The orbit of the Earth has not changed, we are still at the same orbital position around the Sun. The night sky is still the same, all stars still at the same position...
  15. 1 point
    Indeed, everyone is entitled to their own thoughts and ideas. How we convey them must always be at least somewhat coherent, but most importantly, respectful of others. I admit I am surprised, pleasantly of course, that this website has been allowed by the administrators to act as a community-driven source of forum and education for all things even remotely space-related. I would ask that, even if we may all see things differently at times, that the atmosphere of such discussions remains open, clean, and mature, so others feel invited in to give new, unique ideas, or simply to ask questions. Preserving the foundation of an open, educational platform on the internet where all questions are welcome(although, answers may be difficult to come by when unrelated to space weather) and all people regardless of nation are free to think and believe what they will is my own goal, which runs parallel to SWL's goal of providing live, free access to information for all who are curious. If you haven't yet, donate a small amount to aid in the maintenance of this website and development of the mobile apps, to help show appreciation for the hard work that has brought together(albeit in small portions) the aurora watching community, the seismic monitoring community, and a community of people whom generally practice alternative approaches in their research. We are all benefiting, directly or indirectly, from those who access and use this website, and mainly from the generous people who created it and welcomed us in.
  16. 1 point
    Hello goldminor. Thanks for your comment. Of course we have our opinion on alternative space weather science but this forum is open for everyone and their ideas even if we don't always agree with them. That is what message boards are all about. Sparking discussions and coming up with new ideas or information. We live in a free world and this forum is open to everyone as long as everybody sticks to our house rules. As said, we have seen the past few months that many people who find the SpaceWeatherLive forums are in facts people who are interested and want to discuss alternative scientific topics and if people want to use this forum to discuss their ideas than that is no problem. We just want to emphasize that promoting alternative space weather science is not one of the goals of this website. But that doesn't mean we are going to forbid these topics. Everyone is welcome here as long as the atmosphere on these message boards remain civil and polite.
  17. 1 point
    I've just played around with a type of space simulator called "Universe Sandbox" and both confirmed the calculation for the arrival of charged particles(9,000-13,000 years, depending on several factors) and, essentially, the supernova of Betelgeuse would mean, with absolute certainty, a premature end to life on Earth as we know it. We would be caught in the nebula within that time-frame and thus suffer bombardment of many types of particles at a staggering rate. While the cosmic rays will come immediately after the supernova, they are not quite as bad in comparison. Premature in the sense that our Sun is not expected to die for another 5 billion years or so. When we talk about our eventual extinction, should we fail to escape the Solar System with advanced technology that would allow us to somehow outrun the resulting nebula from Betelgeuse within the next ~100,000 years, our priorities should shift to ensuring our space programs receive adequate funding. Additionally, and probably most important of all, the educational systems around the world need to be updated, repaired, and streamlined to allow society to understand the importance and value of being well-educated and aware of the imperative duties which will ensure our survival in the long run. As I stated before, the most pressing matter to discuss, educate, and act upon is the climate change trend towards warming. Should this trend occur for too long, many species of varying life forms will go extinct, coastal cities will be lost, and the climate will become more extreme, giving us more frequent and more powerful hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, tornadoes/twisters, hailstorms, rain events which cause severe inland flooding(rivers, lakes), snow and freeze events, and an indefinitely rapid alteration of terrain across the planet below certain elevations. The idea of a runaway greenhouse effect and doom of the planet is not a matter which will happen any time soon, but all of the issues I just listed can happen and, most important of all, are indeed presently happening.
  18. 1 point
    "Other" seems alright with me. Synonymous with "Off-Topic" and "General"
  19. 1 point
    I apologize for that, Michele. I tend to be critical of people who are using buzzwords that they might have heard from media sources, but in this case, you are absolutely right. An uneducated person might say "cosmic rays" just because it sounds mystical and dangerous, but you are describing the phenomenon accurately. I will still maintain that the cosmic rays, and other slower ejecta from a potential supernova ~700 light years away is not necessarily of great danger to life here on Earth. It would necessitate a coincidence with two rare factors: A weak heliospheric current, and a great diminishing of Earth's geomagnetic field. As previously stated, the reversal of the poles does not mean the geomagnetic field will disappear, as it is indefinitely generated by the core of the planet. As for the heliospheric current during a weak solar cycle, coronal holes are the primary generator of solar wind which aids in deflection/interception of cosmic rays. Both a large gap in the solar wind current, and a substantial weakening of the geomagnetic field would have to be simultaneously occurring at the arrival of the cosmic rays for life on Earth to be affected substantially. I shouldn't have to tell you that this is extremely unlikely to be the case. I also shouldn't have to tell you that the likelihood of Betelgeuse collapsing within our lifetimes is also extremely unlikely. Extinction events in the past that are believed to be due to cosmic rays involved supernovae in much closer proximity than Betelgeuse. While the star is very large in size, it is not actually a supermassive star - it is only 11 Solar masses, in fact. The potential risk of its eventual collapse causing devastation is diminished by this fact. Another fact to consider: cosmic rays account for less than half of the average radiation exposure experienced by people on Earth. The proportion increases with altitude, especially for pilots and people who travel by airplane very often.(Note that this data comes from studies pre-dating the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster, meaning that radiation exposure from cosmic rays accounts for even less of our total exposure.)
  20. 1 point
    Solar activity has been very low for many weeks now. We are in solar minimum where the solar x-rays are at its lowest. So what you’re experiencing has nothing to do with that.
  21. 1 point
    The last two sentences made more sense than any of your posts I’ve seen thus far. It holds more truth than maybe you realize. To deny anything is possible, is to be ignorant. Dancing all around with words, trying to make sense of our universe with a perception not open to design and magic is where we differ. Astronomy is deeply embedded with superstitious names and characters of mythology. They tell a story and it’s safe to assume you have never had your natal chart read with an intuitive astrologer. The light brings with it information and we know this. This knowing brings with it experiences which are encoded in our DNA. Being open to discoveries beyond your imagination will allow you to see the bigger picture whereas your bias doesn’t get in the way of truth. That’s all I will say other than discussing the subject where you agree and leaving comments of distraction at the door seems better for further insight. Learning from one another is key.
  22. 1 point
    Yep, sorry about that. I performed the above task using GOES 15 satellite data (which only goes back to 2011), and here are the results: In the above table, "SEM Trigger Signal 1" is the trigger signal described in the original post to this thread. "SEM Trigger Signal 2" is simply any abnormal rise in EPEAD Protons, those possessing higher energy than the lowest level of "pB(>1 MeV)c".
  23. 1 point
    That was informative, and gives me a better picture to think about.
  24. 1 point
    The phases of the moon do not necessarily indicate where the tidal "bulge" is, that is to say, the portion of Earth that is being tugged on by the gravity of the moon; remember that all objects with mass have gravity and therefore attract other objects regardless of who's gravity is stronger, and so, combined with an orbit or at least movement in close proximity, we have tides. Remember that the Earth is rotating, so the tides cycle between high and low within roughly a 24 hour period, regardless of the phase of the moon. The only significance of the phase or orbital position of the moon is how it interacts with Solar tides; I mentioned earlier that the tides cancel one another out once the moon is at a 90º to the Sun, relative to the Earth. This is the quadrature configuration. The Solar tide is about one-third of the strength of the Lunar tide, since the moon is much closer to Earth. Also remember that the moon takes 28 days, roughly, to complete an orbit around the Earth. All that the phase describes is the appearance and orbital position of the moon from the point of observation on Earth, and its interaction with the Solar tides. Since the tidal forces are very dynamic, and the physics of the tectonic plates are very dynamic as well, it is difficult to determine what causes what, especially with limited technological insight as to what is occurring beneath the mantle. I feel that I could have done a better job explaining these things, but I have been drinking a bit and have been up all night reading.
  25. 1 point
    To this end, I offer these images and a few immediate, yet indeterminate conclusions. The first image is a list detailing M6.0+ earthquakes of the month of May 2019, when the only >=8.0 earthquake had occurred. You may notice these boxes surrounding the magnitudes of certain events. Correlation between these quakes and the SEM is positive, while the others are either iffy or non-existent, based on criteria described by "theartist" earlier, and by my criteria of "visibly significant or disruptive to a pattern." The second image is of the SEM Summary of that month, with boxes separating M6.0 quakes or greater, and the boxes terminate upon the succeeding earthquake. These boxes are meant to represent the distinction of signals leading up to quakes, and of course no longer provide a meaningful, preceding signal once the quake occurs, so the box "resets": The quakes I have highlighted in the first image are shown to have signals, while the biggest quake, the M8.0 that struck Peru(red box), doesn't share the "signal strength" of the lesser quake signals from SEM. For starters, the May 12th M6.1 near Panama and the May 14th M7.5 near P.N.Guinea bear a feature much like an arch in the graph above, with obvious signals from EPEAD Electron readings preceding them, in addition to He-1 and Hn-1 signaling. The only other significant signaling for this month in the same manner is the May 30th M6.6 near El Salvador and the M6.0 near Fiji. There were four M5.0-M5.2 quakes on May 29th, where the third dramatic EPEAD Electron plunge of this month is seen. The most obvious feature and deduction from the second image is that the M8.0 quake has no immediately obvious, discernible signals of any kind, while lesser quakes indeed do. My observations have led me to these conclusions: The magnitude of the Earthquake does not necessarily determine "signal strength" Upon each M6.0 or greater event, the "pattern" of daily cycles of EPEAD Electron density "resets" or attempts to find a new, stable pattern(process takes up to 12 hours) The geomagnetic field signals always accompanies EPEAD Electron signals, in that there are sudden spikes or plunges for the duration of the signal. Signal duration lasts between 2-12 hours, roughly Of course, new information can sway these conditions and alter the outlook on this particular set of data. For instance, looking at the next month and comparing it to this one, or simply going back to 2017 and viewing the month of the M8.0+ quake to determine signals leading up to it, as well as any signal for the main event.
  26. 1 point
    I wish to return the discussion back to the original topic: The plunge in EPEAD Electrons preceding a relatively massive Earthquake. Now, I cannot as fluently transcribe images and information as "theartist" has, so bear with me. I've looked a bit back in time for a short period of seismic activity, in which quakes of magnitude 6.5+ occurred within a single month. The dates fall within August 2018: The month of September, 2018 also shows similar volume of relatively frequent seismic activity: Now let's look at GOES-15 readings for each month, respectively, with a bit of information highlighted: What is seen here is a direct correlation between M6.5+ quakes(an arbitrary scale I selected) and the SEM of GOES-15. It appears that within a 7 day period, a plunge in EPEAD Electrons precedes a large earthquake. It does not appear that these plunge in response to, or as a result of, the large earthquakes, but instead display a meaningful signal as to an event that has yet to occur. I've left out the August 5th, 2018 M6.9 Quake near Indonesia as there is no data above to suggest a correlation; I believe there is a margin of error as a result of our technological limitations in reading and estimating the actual magnitude of events surrounding, and directly involving massive earthquakes. The larger they are in grand scale, however, the more obvious and measurable the signal. On August 11th, 2018, a noticeable, but relatively small plunge in EPEAD Electrons was seen by GOES-15, preceding a pair of quakes not shown above, at Northern Alaska. These were M6.4 and then M6.0, respectively. On August 15th, 2018, there was a dramatic EPEAD Electrons plunge, just before a "series" of quakes began. Just after this, M6.6 quake struck Andreanof Islands near Alaska, and is the beginning of a series of quakes with less than ~5 days of a gap between one another. (Not Shown) On August 17th, 2018, a deep M6.5 strikes under Flores Sea, and 8 hours afterward, a M6.1 strikes Costa Rica. On August 19th, 2018, a M8.2 quake struck Fiji at a depth of 558km, followed by 2 M6.5+ quakes in relatively near proximity(tectonic vicinity). A spike of XS X-Rays is seen. Two days later, August 21st, 2018, a M7.3 hits Venezuela and within 61 minutes of that, a M6.5 hits Vanuatu. The signals from GOES-15 are quite saturated at this point; The geomagnetic sensor tops out both the He-1 and Hp-1 values for nearly the entirety of the 21st. Perhaps there is induced tectonic stress from fluctuation of the geomagnetic field? A spike, and then a consistent elevated value of XS X-Rays is seen, with a small correlative rise of XL X-Rays. On August 24th, 2018, A M7.1 strikes at the border of Peru-Brazil. This is likely connected to the quake which hit Venezuela three days earlier. From August 24th, 2018 to ~August 26th, 2018, GOES-15 sensors detect a rise in XS and XL X-Rays; the XL X-Rays rise and fall as an arc in the graph, and the XS X-Rays intermittently spike in tandem with the sudden rise and fall of the XL X-Rays. At the end of the XL X-Ray arc, the XS X-Rays elevate a meaningful amount, the EPEAD Protons spike positively and negatively, the EPEAD Electrons plunge dramatically, and the He-1 and Hn-1 values of the geomagnetic sensor spike inversely to each other - all approximately simultaneously. From then, the X-Rays in the sensor read like a wave; the XS X-Rays have elevated from 10^-9 to 10^-8, and are gradually increasing and decreasing per 24-hour cycles in tandem with the XL X-Rays. This pattern continues into the next month, as well as showing a decline in total values for XL and XS X-Rays(see how the wave "descends"?) On August 29th, 2018, a M7.1 strikes several hundred miles south of Vanuatu, near New Caldonia. This serves as an end to the signals I just described above, excluding the wave-like pattern of X-Ray readings. This is also after the dramatic plunge in EPEAD Electrons, but is not likely the main event these signals have forewarned us of. Let us move on to September, 2018: There is a lot to unpack here as well, but I've spent a few hours composing this post and I'm a bit too weary to go through it with as much detail. Note that seismological data is often classified by the direct impact on civilization it causes, owing to a bias towards humanity, and a bias against pure, unfiltered data. Also note that these may appear "small" based on seismograph data, but could be a lot deeper or more impactful in ways that are not felt here at the surface. We see the EPEAD Electrons continuously wane away from the high of the previous month, with notable plunges preceding two relatively major quakes. It seems that the SEM signals are foretelling the M7.8 at Fiji, or quakes in the near future. There is also a plunge on the 11th that does not precede any major Earthquake within 6 days, yet a M6.5 strikes near Fiji towards the end of a few anomalous signals. The boxes on this screenshot are meant to illustrate deviations from patterns, and in several instances, these begin or end in correlation with a relatively large quake. I was a bit loose with the placement of the boxes, but you get the idea, hopefully. (Not Shown) There was an M6.0 on the tectonic plate boundary between the African plate and the Antarctic plate on September 18th, 2018 which has correlation to the EPEAD Proton fluctuation, EPEAD Electron pattern disruption, and the end of an X-Ray pattern which began immediately following the September 10th, 2018 M6.9 near Kermadec Islands. There was also a M6.4 quake near the Mariana Trench on September 23rd, 2018, which has correlation to EPEAD Electrons plunge, EPEAD Proton fluctuation, and occurred roughly 24 hours after a change in X-Rays patterns. The September 10th, 2018 Kermadec Islands quake like triggered a "distant aftershock" near Loyalty Islands of M6.3, about 15 hours later. The M7.5 quake near Indonesia on September 28th, 2018 had a foreshock of M6.1, 3 hours prior. If following with the trend of other SEM signals and their correlation to seismic activity, this should serve as a more "official" beginning or end of the patterns seen in GOES-15 SEM data, however, the only correlation seen in this instance is with the X-Ray patterns. This roughly aligns with the end of one pattern and the beginning of another, which persists in spite of the M6.6 at Fiji on September 30th, 2018. In brief conclusion, I believe with enough study of the history of data from GOES-15 sensors, and of reported seismic activity of an arbitrary scale similar to what I chose, we may find a causality for the signals shown from the SEM data. Maybe merely plugging in data about the Sun, IMF, and planetary positions could unravel some mysteries.
  27. 1 point
    You addressed your remark to me. Note that I have stuck with my concept in all of my comments. Also note, that I have not engaged in any thoughts about astrology. I am here in respect to the beginning of this thread which has to do with solar/quake correlations, if any. I see good correlation with points of the lunar phase causing stronger quakes, and also affecting the 24 hour rate of quakes. Of special interest to me is the correlation between major quakes on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and solar cycles. Every major quake on the NMSZ has struck during a solar minimum/Gleissberg/grand minimum combination, and in the winter. The timing is about right for another one. Note that I did well forecasting the specific days where a very strong to major quake would occur over the last several months.
  28. 1 point
    I occasionally monitor what EMSC is showing. However, I have been watching the USGS daily map for the last 8 years. I use their above 2.5 for North America, and above 4.0 for the rest of the globe. So the USGS daily has become my main tool of referencing changing rates, and I am tuned into that. This is comparable to choosing an instrument of choice for observations. I see no value in observing the smaller quakes below 2.5 mag in regards to my focus on how much effect lunar phases have on the daily quake map. Secondary to that is impacts from the sun such as the comment from last night. Did that sudden shift in hemispheric power output cause the high rate of 9 quakes in 45 minutes? And more importantly, the effects of this current solar minimum. There haven't been any quakes above 6.0+ in the last seven days. Yet there has been unusual changes in the daily rate over the last week. So no very strong quakes yet a good bit of change in the 24 hour rate. Yes, I am aware that very strong quakes can and will affect the 24 rate. At times a very strong quake appears to shut down the rest of the planet for quakes over 2.5 on the North American side, and 4.0+ quakes for the rest of the planet. Lastly, you have been the only one to mention politics here.
  29. 1 point
    We are aware of the different seismic channels, I’d imagine. Please join the discussion if you’d like but there isn’t a need for input not within the scope of the original post. Trump has nothing to do with it, for sure. ✌🏼
  30. 1 point
    Something of note, just noted a series of 9 quakes in 45 minutes striking at six locations globally. In opening SW just now I could not help but take note of the rapid decline and rise in hemispheric power on the front page which occurs just prior to this series of quakes. The series ran from 2:01 UTC to 2:45 UTC. Here we are again at a high probability time for a major quake/s or eruption. The USGS global map is showing odd changes in the daily rate over the last week. Tomorrow starts prime time through to the 11th. Plus the current lunar phase is in a 8 day pattern. So many intersecting forces coming together without taking into consideration the potential for planetary alignments to also lend something into that mix.
  31. 1 point
    Totally agree and I’ll add, Mercury is a game changer. My opinion of course.
  32. 1 point
    O/T but interesting. It has been 7 full days since I received the herbal remedies. The strained/tight muscles are completely gone as of 2 days ago. The ache and weakness in my left arm is almost faded away as well. The other day I was able to lift a concrete block off of the ground in one motion. The block weighed around 110 pounds. I only weigh around 138 pounds at this time. These Indian ayurvedic remedies work. The two are arjuna, mainly for the heart, and land caltrops mainly for the kidneys. Amazing products. In my neck muscles. Somehow that disappeared when posting. More along this line, the quake in January 2010 which devastated Haiti struck right at, or shortly after the 2009/10 peak on the Oulo graph.
  33. 1 point
    Of interest, the 7.5 quake which devastated an important Jamaican port town in June 1692 struck seven years before the first recorded quake on the New Madrid fault on Dec 25th 1699. The full sunspot graph which starts in 1600 AD shows sunspots starting to rise right around this time. Also interesting is that the last Great Cascadia quake struck on Jan 26th of 1700, just one month after the New Madrid quake. The New Madrid quake struck 4 days after the new moon during an 8 day lunar week period. The Cascadia quake struck 6 days after the new moon during an 8 day lunar week period. I have come across many examples of great quakes striking during 8 day lunar week periods. Also, note how this fits in with my thought that the new moon of January 2020 would be a highly probable time for large quakes/eruptions, and that the prime month, imo, was always for February 2020. So just like the example above of the New Madrid and Cascadia striking one month apart after the new moon are we about to see a similar pattern now? Global quake activity recently declined for several day recently. The last 36 hours has seen a doubling of the 24 hour rate for global quakes. These quakes are scattered across many fault zones around the globe, and not concentrated in swarms. This is a potential indicator of change, imo. Why did the 24 hour rate double when there have been no major quakes over the last 2 days?
  34. 1 point
    Mostly here. Here are some interesting facts about that quake. The last time there was a major quake in that area was on June 1692. That took place during a solar minimum, and of course during the Maunder Minimum. The moon was in its last quarter. So those are key interactions for quakes/eruptions, imo, ie: Gleissberg, solar grand minima, cardinal points of the lunar phase, and the longest lunar month of the year. Which is where the phase of the moon is entering into now. So February should be the key month for experiencing large Earth events. Note that above I had listed an eruption at the Taal volcano as being a strong probability during this last new moon. On the 26th in the middle of this last new moon there were 915 quakes at Taal. Everyone watching thought that this was it. I view that as the interacting forces were in place to cause an eruption, a close call. Puerto Rico also had another strong 5.0+ quake at the last new moon, also close , but no cigar. Conclusion, there is merit to the thoughts I have proposed. February is the longest synodic lunar month of this year. There are two parts to this which appear to act as triggering points. Many of past large quakes occur around this time or at the shortest lunar synodic month of the year, and a large number of great quakes occur in a week where the lunar phase has 8 days between the cardinal points of the lunar phase. That may sound odd, but it is a fact. Health wise, I recently purchased several herbal remedies to strengthen the heart and kidneys. The products come from India, and so far the two heart related remedies have been effective in keeping my blood pressure stable. That is definitely a good result.
  35. 1 point
    "Mercury coming between The Sun and Venus" is what is referred to as a Heliocentric Conjunction. When that happens and Mercury is on the same side as Venus, it is an Inferior Conjunction. A Superior Conjunction is when they are in alignment with, but on opposite sides of, the sun. The Mercury/Venus Inferior Conjunction does not happen until February 10. Does your simulator indicate that, or not? If not, then it has major errors, and should not be used for serious work.
  36. 1 point
    The problem is probably my bad explanation, so you don`t understand what I mean Mercury is coming between The Sun and Venus, so you can draw a straight line from The Sun and thru Mercury, and over to Venus...
  37. 1 point
    I predicted sunspot on January 28th +/- a few days. It was predicted to emerge on mid to South latitude and now it is starting to emerge. Hopefully it will be an registered sunspot in a day or two It`s seems to belong to SC25.
  38. 1 point
    I think it will disappear when it will be hearth faced! Nice job Artist!
  39. 1 point
    Hi theartist, Amazing work on this! Personally find your work inspiring and reminds me of what science can and should be. A couple of questions /comments on this: 1) Silso has the cycles broken out into larger Characteristic groups of 8 solar cycles which make a larger characteristic trend. The first 8 solar cycles presumably had short cycles (yellow), cycles 8 through 15 had long cycles (blue), cycles 16 through 23 had short cycles (yellow), and 24 through 31 will have (if they follow trend) longer then average cycles. This observed trend exactly supports your theory that SC 9 is similar to SC25 and SC8 is equivalent to SC24. As they are cycle 1 and 2 of this larger and newest (blue color coded) 8 cycle Characteristic trend. Really just not enough observed data (would need thousands of years) to have statistical significance though. Thoughts based on this limited data? 2) My second question on this is really just an image that pops up into mind from your work. I tend to see this planetary clocking thesis as having parallels to classical electricity generation here on earth. With the motion of planets and really the universe as a whole providing the kinetic energy (moving of magnets) from which our favorite and life giving electron (aka sun) partially converts to variances in electromagnetic energy. So when the motion is slower our electron generates less (longer solar cycles) and when the motion is greater it generates more (faster solar cycles). Again would love to hear your thoughts on this. Hi theartist - 16/2 = 8.... Based on your most recent findings this seems to fit well with the characteristic trend (Silso trend classification) of a larger full trend. 8 “positive/south” cycles and 8 “negative/north” cycles. Flipping each 8 cycles? Not sure which is longer in duration though - would depend on total universe kinetic energy during the larger 8 cycle trend. so much we don’t know (I admit to stretching logic in this specific thought - really late here - but not the previous/earlier points in this post). Apologies in advance.
  40. 1 point
    good job, my feeling is similar that the planetary influences are exactly that. Is there a short-cut connection between the F10.7 flux and electromagnetic interaction of planetary bodies? Sunspots seem to be the visual manifestation that we see of solar activity, but the magnetic activity is really what is of interest re. the influence on earth?
  41. 1 point
    From theartist science notebook series(©) (draft notes): Figure 3. 'Sunspot events' in SC9 are annotated in the above ISN time series. (to be continued)
  42. 1 point
    I think that if we are now at the bottom or near the bottom of the current aa/Ap cycle, then the best correlation for SC24 can be found from the SC12. Why I think so? Because SC23 bottomed out similar to SC11 albeit being much stronger. So SC13 seems to be the best fit for SC25, but whereas SC12 & SC13 had peak activity early on the cycle, now we have that inverted and also a bit lower amplitude as well.
  43. 1 point
    Hey Michele, I enjoy your posts. Check out my latest posts on the thread titled, "Solar Cycle 'Rosetta Stone' Has Been Found!?!", where I compare cycles with Uranus in Taurus versus cycles where Uranus is in opposition to Taurus. A key suggestion is that the Uranus/Taurus (Pleiades) conjunct are just coincident to the real cause, which is that Uranus' magnetic orientation favors sunspot formation when it is in the Taurus constellation (particularly if it occurs near the cycle's solar maximum). 🤔 What do you think about that? 😊 According to theartist's 'Planetary Clocking Thesis', changing location and orientation of the 'planetary magnets' are heliosphere perturbations which affect the Quality Factor of the Heliosphere's Electromagnetic Resonation Characteristics.
  44. 1 point
    The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction back then was on 01/26/1842. (to be continued)
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    Stream of conciousness thoughts: We are going to find out within this first year, at least to some degree, how credible the 'Planetary Clocking Thesis' (PCT) is. The following prediction/thoughts are based on the PCT tenets (which are yet to be proven out). These forecast ideas are based on careful examination of the differences between SC9 and SC25, and evaluation of other cyclical patterns (along with additional research and study). I think SC25 is going to confound folks. SC25 should start out slow (because of the Jupiter/Saturn inferior conjunction that needs to first be cleared), and then pick up strength toward the end of it. The latter cycle strength will end up confirming we are not going into a Maunder Minimum, and that we are coming out of the Gleissberg Minimum Dip. The Gleissberg Minimum Dip was primarily due to the phasing (timing occurrence) of the Jupiter/Saturn inferior conjunction, along with Pluto approaching the ecliptic, while the Uranus and Neptune position were (approximately) in the same quadrant as during the Maunder Minimum ~358 years ago, and during SC9 ~176 years ago (but Pluto was well below the ecliptic in the latter). In SC25, Pluto is not in as 'effective position' (by effective I mean conducive to producing sunspots) as it was in SC9. By the start of SC9, Jupiter had already cleared Saturn. (The Jupiter/Saturn inferior conjunction occurs approximately every 20 years. It generally is anti-corollary to sunspot effectiveness.) Uranus is further separated away from Neptune in SC25. That will somewhat help in getting the cycle going, but then Jupiter will eventually have to clear Uranus well into the cycle, whereas, Jupiter relatively quickly cleared Uranus in SC9. (In general, the Jupiter/Uranus inferior conjunction is anti-corollary to sunspot effectiveness; whereas, the Jupiter/Uranus superior heliocentric conjunction is quite effective.) That is enough for now. There is a lot to this, and it can be quite exhausting. (copyright © by 'theartist', all rights reserved) (to be continued)
  47. 1 point
    Interesting concept. For one it would make much sense to me that the entirety of the solar system dances together. Each part has consequential effects on the rest of the parts. The sun is the master point.
  48. 1 point
    Norwegian, one ultimate objective here, is to increase the granularity of solar forecasting beyond anything that has been done today. In order to do that, as we go forward, the methodology will need to be further revealed, and the luster of this theory will be brought forth, to shine, or not, depending upon the integrity of its merits. I think we have progressed now beyond the point of just 'drive-by predictions', without reasoning provided behind them, since that is counter-productive to the ultimate objective. I think I see what you are looking at. (After all, I started laying my planetary theory out months ago on this forum, for example, in the thread titled, "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?"--which is a great one for the newcomers to get started). However, nobody will be sure whether we are seeing the same thing, unless one actually specifically states what they are looking at. So then, I gave an example in the original post to this thread. I stated the reasoning of my forecast for sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24, by listing the planetary conjunctions that are coming into play. I respectfully ask that you start doing the same on a thread I have started, and then by teamwork, we will hammer out a theory to 'shine like the sun'. I even put down a probability, but it is early in the development of this theory so the value of the forecast probabilities will hopefully increase in significance (with greater understanding of the patterns, caveats, etc.). If you can put your probabilities behind your forecasts, all the better, but even something like "a 50-50 chance" or "no probability assigned" may be more appropriate at this point in time. So please, starting with your first post to this thread, go back and clarify what you are seeing for your forecasts of Jan 28th, Feb 7th, Feb 15. (Because the mods have now made it somewhat of a pain to link imagery, I don't expect you to attach images). Thank you; respectfully, 'theartist'.
  49. 1 point
    One thing to keep in mind is that geomagnetic disturbance goes up around the equinoxes; correlation is not always causation. Nonetheless, the most obvious story with regard to Kp and tropical storms would have to be the anti-correlation, no? Haven't the storms intensified over the past few years, whereas, the Kp (and solar activity in general) is dramatically lower than what it was 30-40 years ago? How do you explain that? What has changed?
  50. 1 point
    Some fascinating stuff in this data, though after a lot of playing with the it, I tend to stick to the ‘30 year’ concept. As is usually the case in these areas, restricted data availability pushes any assessment into realms where mental gymnastics and the imagination become ones primary tools. Clearly, there are several cycles at work here and the further back we try to push things the more they seem to come unstuck! Just as an aside, I have opened a new topic on the link between Solar ‘Kp’ impacts and the development and acceleration of tropical storm structures. – Any thoughts ?
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