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  1. 2 points
    I wish to try and clarify the above statement. The title of that poster (below), was "Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles": Additionally, the poster (below) with very similar content [including the statement, "the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with the error estimate ~15%"] was published on December 13, 2018 [for American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2018; December 10, 2018 - December 14, 2018; Washington, DC; United States], titled, "Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles": From the figure (repeated below) above the "Conclusions" in both of those posters, it indicates their SC25 prediction was based on data up to 2017.5: The more recent paper previously cited in this thread titled, Solar Activity Forecast for the Next Decade, given at a presentation on June 09, 2019, [stating, "the mean hemispheric sunspot number at the maximum will be about 50 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with an error estimate of ~15%"], from which I took the SC25 forecast parameters, was quite likely using updated data. That forecast of "about 50" is also found in the following two more recently published posters: Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles published June 30, 2019 [for IAU Symposium 354: Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations; June 30, 2019 - July 06, 2019; Copiapo; Chile] Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter published August 05, 2019 [for Solar Heliospheric Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) Workshop; August 05, 2019 - August 09, 2019; Boulder, CO; United States].
  2. 2 points
    "The 10.7cm Solar Flux is currently one of the best indices of solar activity we have. It now forms a consistent, uninterrupted database covering more than 50 years." (link) The following statement has held true for the F10.7cm Flux since its inception in 1944: "The Solar Minimum Nadir in a solar cycle's solar minimum period has always occurred within 3 months of the minimum value of the monthly average of Adjusted F10.7cm." Up to this point in the current SC 24/25 solar cycle transition, the minimum value of the monthly average of Adjusted F10.7cm occurred 10 11 months ago, back in 2018 December November. Obviously, in order for the above statement to hold true for the current cycle transition, we will have to see the Adjusted F10.7cm proceed to a sustained period of low values we have not yet seen in this cycle. 🤪 So then, just how deep is this solar minimum going to go?😳
  3. 1 point
    In order to 'double dip', the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux will need to sustain daily values in the 65-66 range (or lower), as that is what was observed in Nov. 2018 when the current low for this solar minimum transition was established: It appeared the currently 'bald sun' was going to relax back to those '66 levels' a couple of days ago at the end of 10-10-19; and yet, the next day there was almost a 2-point pop back up into the 68's: Could yesterday's bump be attributable to something we can observe over at SDO/helioviewer.org? For example, was it due to the polar jets and a large prominence that danced on the NE limb for a day (figure below)? If so, even without sunspots, are the polar crown filaments/prominences too numerous now, such that we will not see the 'double dip' in the F10.7cm? It is hard to say...for were we not previously seeing similar activity (figure below) on the solar disc back during the time period when the low in the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux was established?
  4. 1 point
    How many times have you heard or seen it repeated online that, "We are at an all-time high (at least since the space-age) for Cosmic Rays!" Look at the evidence closely in the following video, and decide for yourself. CosmicRays vs. SolarMinimum.mp4 The Neutron Monitor used in the evaluation was the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station, which is probably the most cited in the scientific literature. One can check Neutron Monitors all around the world via the Neutron Monitor Database. Here is a map of the various stations. This link is where one can create their own plots, over various time periods.
  5. 1 point
    Guys, thank you for responding, because it may have been the further impetus I needed to look into her forecast further. After reviewing her presentation again, I don't think she mentions the black lines. Based on her paper from 2008, those black lines (may) represent what they call a "reference solution", which is just one step in the model's production of an eventual forecast, which apparently is both the high fidelity jagged red lines in the top slide, and the smoothed red line in the bottom slide. She states they predicted SC24 pretty well in 2008, and their model may be able to look-ahead eight years into the future, and possibly longer. I have a lot more respect for her forecast now, and she may come out looking like a genius by the time SC25 is over.😊
  6. 1 point
    Looks like she got 24 pretty close. Maybe she made some theoretical updates over the years and never updated the old 23 data?
  7. 1 point
    That’s a good observation and indeed true, I assume they don’t explain why their model is a bit off in earlier cycles. So we can take that 25th cycle prediction as a bit off course as well...
  8. 1 point
    This morning I revisited the 'Kitiashvili/NASA Forecast', and something caught my eye. Below are a couple of slides from her presentation: If the black line (in the above slides) is her model's prediction, doesn't it significantly undershoot the strength of SC23?
  9. 1 point
    Ahh yes that’s definitely it. It was quite large in size, at least 4 🌎. I find the polar regions of the sun very interesting, been wondering if there’s some vortex structure like Saturn (amongst some other issues). Too bad we won’t find out until the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter arrives at the higher latitudes in 2026. After the dynamics that showed up at Jupiter’s poles when the first Juno pics started flowing back, I think anything could be possible. I wonder if we will still be in solar minimum then? 😎
  10. 1 point
    Hmmm....maybe you were seeing polar X-ray jets? These are described in the following: (source)
  11. 1 point
    One of the more concrete things we know regarding solar activity is that the flux and sunspot number have historically mirrored each other very well; this is demonstrated mathematically with either a linear regression, or a polynomial fit (for a little more finesse), per discussion in this paper, "The Solar Flux and Sunspot Number; A Long-Trend Analysis". Now then, Svaalgard (as pointed out above in his six year old paper) was indicating that the relationship between the two had "steadily deteriorated in the past decade to the point where the sunspot number for a given flux has decreased by about a third." But the more recent paper from 2018 I just cited points out that there was only a blip in the correlation for both SC24 and SC21. Generally, it is observed that the rate of rise in solar flux at the beginning of a solar cycle correlates with the strength of the cycle, i.e., the Waldemeir Effect; strong cycles rise to their maximum faster than weak cycles. ------------------------------ ------------------------------ ------------------------------ Today the Observed Flux and Adjusted Flux were equivalent (proceeding into 'the Crossover' discussed at the beginning of this thread)::
  12. 1 point
    Does the flux rise dramatically at the end of minimum or is it gradual? There are a few small active regions but nothing to write home about. I assume this is breaking all current models?
  13. 1 point
    Article here, I found it interesting given the hypothetical planetary clocking debate. There is a paper but it is behind a paywall 😒 https://www.phys.org/news/2019-09-plasma-sun-surface-sunspots-solar.html
  14. 1 point
    The asymmetry is very interesting, there must be a cause. Thanks for posting, another rabbit hole to go down! 🤓 Here is an interesting lead of sorts; there is a planet about the size of Jupiter hugging a young 1 solar mass star from about 3 AU. You can see that the star is magnetically stressed where the planet is. https://phys.org/news/2016-06-newborn-giant-planet-grazes-star.amp
  15. 1 point
    So does this new solar dynamo theory explain the huge asymmetry in the number of sunspots between hemispheres that the sun is currently undergoing, per the following figure? (Source of figure.) This may sound preposterous, but could it have anything to do with clocked planetary positions relative to the ecliptic plane (primarily Saturn, and even Pluto, due to their greater inclinations to the ecliptic)? Note, there was an even larger asymmetry during the SC 19/20 minimum, per the following figure:
  16. 1 point
    I think this is very interesting. One of the main points in their (relatively*) new dynamo theory is that the sunspot generation process is contained within only a thin, 100-300km thick, region just below the photosphere. [On relative scale dimensions--the sun diameter being ~109x that of earth--it would be like going down to a depth of only ~1.7 miles on earth.] In contrast, conventional dynamo theory has sunspot generation occurring at 30% radial depth, down at the tachocline, where the flux tubes are then buoyantly conveyed to the surface. (*They have been working on it a for a few years, related to their observations from fusion research.) Another interesting point in their theory, somewhat related to what we have recently been discussing, is that prominences are the means by which plasma layers are sloughed off to expose spots for the new cycle. If spots are indeed constrained to such a relatively thin layer, then maybe their manifestation would be more susceptible to what has previously been thought to be just 'weak' perturbation forces from planetary tidal pull (or even planetary electro-magnetic connection?).
  17. 1 point
    No, it is in the clear, https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.5087613 as well as the direct pdf file: http://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.5087613?class=pdf
  18. 1 point
    Just for interest, NASA's 'Flurry' refers to a solar impact dated March 8-10 2012; NASA's hurricane archives dated 03.19.12 record as follows :- On Saturday, March 17, 2012, (Cyclone) Lua's center crossed the Australia coastline at Pardoo about 3 p.m. (local time/Australia) bringing winds gusting up to 155 mph (250 kph) and heavy rainfall. Previous forecast March 16, 2012 …. maximum sustained winds were near ...86 mph/139 kph ... forecast to strengthen to ...103.6 mph/166.7 kph ...before making landfall -. A significant increase?
  19. 1 point
    Thanks for the correction. Been doing too much travelling recently, chronic jet lag is taking hold , but glad to see someone is paying attention! Around the end of the month gives us an excellent opportunity to observe - interesting times!
  20. 1 point
    So the flux is down to 66 and the sun visually appears somewhat relaxed again. I wonder if other stars are this dynamic.
  21. 1 point
    Good to go. https://twitter.com/CovertGoat/status/1174405818483011584?s=20
  22. 1 point
    Some more interesting oddities in the F10.7cm data, eh? You do twitter, yes? Would you mind asking them if their F10.7cm data has been hacked? https://twitter.com/SpaceWeatherCA
  23. 1 point
    Thank you very much for your explanation. Interesting. Let´s see what new surprises the Sun will bring to us in the future.
  24. 1 point
    Thanks for the info. Here is the video: https://youtu.be/BdTTSylIHYQ
  25. 1 point
    Can’t get a more serious website because on phone, but do those spots seem to coincide with Jupiter and Saturn being at the exact opposite side of the Sun? Could flux ropes from Jupiter and Saturn “crossing” cause such phenomena? I mention this because I recall seeing a video by NASA of the most recent X class flare sending gamma rays out into space and the Fermi telescope seeing them hit the opposite side of the sun some time later. It was mentioned they traveled along magnetic field lines. While not the same phenomena, perhaps there is a “short circuit” of sorts taking place here between interacting flux roles.
  26. 1 point
    When was the last time that this happend? How often this occurs?
  27. 1 point
    I think you meant September rather than October. I suspect it to again be earth facing on 2019.09.23-2019.09.27, with an associated Geomagnetic disturbance date interval of 2019.09.27-2019.10.02. Listed below is pertinent info on its previous four earth-facing visits (data source): STAR Coronal hole tag Location Earth facing position date interval Geomagnetic disturbance date interval Kp dominant / Kp max / ap max Max solar wind speed (km/s) Comment CH935 trans equatorial 2019.08.27-2019.08.31 2019.08.30-2019.09.05 4/6/67 872 ref. CH932 CH932 trans equatorial 2019.08.01-2019.08.02 2019.08.05-2019.08.08 3/5/56 708 ref. CH928 CH928 northern 2019.07.05-2019.07.07 2019.07.09-2019.07.11 3/5/39 623 ref. CH923 CH923 northern 2019.06.09 2019.06.12-2019.06.14 2/4/27 459 The following two images show what that area looked like, from STEREO-A, one week (approximate) before its last earth-facing position, and today: The following threads also had discussion on the persistent magnetic structure and associated coronal hole(s) being discussed above: Multi-Rotation Persistent Magnetic Structure ('Case 2' in that thread). Coronal Hole Polarity & Planetary Magnetic Connection Coronal Hole Occlusion.
  28. 1 point
    There is an opportunity here for some ‘constructive prediction’. Making forecasts is always fraught with danger, the opportunity for professional catastrophe is ever present; however we can look at the information we have and see if we can create something informative. We saw a solar ‘Kp’ impact coincidental with hurricane ‘Dorian’. Will it happen again - will it have an impact - or not? Coronal hole CH935 gave us the observed ‘Kp’ impact; happening like a lighthouse beam, it has sprayed the earth repeatedly, it is due again around 28th October ( Correction - September!!) (although with a new number). Will it be larger or smaller? R-M equinox effect may be relevant. October will still be in the hurricane season, close to autumn equinox; will there be significant surface disturbances active at that time? Will there be an identifiable impact reaction - or not? Will the returning coronal hole be too small to have an effect? Perhaps relevant to note that the Antarctic SSW seems also to have been coincident with the impact. We are starting to see media forecasts of ‘Worst winter for 30 years’. Based on “Spörer’s Law Years” and “R-M” effect we could see a serious drop in solar impact effects around the winter solstice with the associated contraction in the atmospheric structure, pulling activity back towards the equator with large scale polar excursions to the south. The potential for some serious discussion is evident – anyone willing to roll the dice and make a bet? Just for reference, Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina have been mentioned, Hurricane Katrina Originated Aug 23 2005, Rapidly intensifying Aug 26 – There was a large ‘Kp’ spike Aug24 in an otherwise quiet period. (refer Carrington Rotation CR2033) Hurricane Andrew Originated August 16 1992 Rapidly intensified Aug 23. There was a significant ‘Kp’ Spike Aug 23 (Refer Carrington Rotation CR1859).
  29. 1 point
    A really broad yet bite sized view: Do Variations in the Solar Cycle Affect Our Climate System? Note: take the link with a grain of salt: "extensive series of climate model experiments " not all observations. Koma: Yes, and there is some debate around to what degree (pun intended!) NASA's take on a flurry of events a few years back. And some NOAA findings, Ultraviolet or UV wavelengths (120 – 400 nm), the solar irradiance variability is larger over the course of the solar cycle, with changes up to 15%, but many of these shorter wavelengths are blocked entirely by the atmosphere so those never hit the ground... The rest is outside of the sun... but hey, earth's climate is a complex ball of fluid energy too theartist: Perhaps water vapor and clouds moderate temperature swings more than they're currently given credit, and the oceans are slower to give back their heat than expected? (and I have enjoyed your recent visualizations, thanks!) The atmosphere guy: Most air coming down from the top of the hadley cells is cold and dry regardless of solar max vs min, yes? So it isn't so much moving air north that cools, it's air moving heat up that does?
  30. 1 point
    There is an aspect of this debate that seems rarely considered, yet seems to be there in the data if it is searched doggedly enough. It is well established that the Thermosphere Climate Index has been declining steadily, basically since the 1960’s, as indeed has the International Sunspot Number. There are records of the temperature and pressure structure of the atmosphere going back many decades. https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/historical-charts/ may be of interest. The area for discussion rests around the relevance of ‘Deep Atmosphere’ behaviour to surface temperature. Basically as the atmosphere as a whole cools and contracts, the temperature and pressure patterns pull back towards the equator. This allows cyclonic weather structures to pick up tropical warm air and throw it unusually far north, (the alternating sea / land structure is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere exacerbating this effect in the north) giving the impression of warming. Such heat will dissipate naturally via entropic action giving an overall cooling to the planet. Thoughts?
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