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  1. 2 points
  2. 1 point
    The magnetic layout always tells to which solar cycle it belongs. A SC25 region can always be recognized due to it's opposite polarity. The latitude of SC24 regions are gradually going towards the equator but that doesn't mean that SC24 regions can still emerge on higher latitudes. Here is the butterfly diagram up until February (source: Jan Janssens SC24 tracking page). As you can see the latitude is still spread across 20 degrees north and south.
  3. 1 point
    RationalArguement, you state "Theartist: No need for the ad hominem, please. Respectfully, to some, it reduces the value of your comment. " Can you please respectfully tell me what you are referring to, for I meant no "ad hominem"? There has definitely been put out there a lot of misinformation stating earth is already in a 'Grand Solar Minimum', which is simply not the case. Furthermore, T. Sweaney was implying there is going to be lack of sunspots directly associated with crop-losses. So with those statements, I just presumed T. Sweaney was following the social media crowd parroting misinformation, rather than offering a professional opinion. BTW, I have not taken a position that recent earth weather and climate changes are due to CO2; there are other factors, some due to anthropogenic activity besides CO2 emissions, that could factor into the equation. My point was simply that it is a stretch to blame the sun, since the Total Solar Irradiance (measured at top-of-atmosphere) has only changed by 0.096% since the Maunder Minimum.
  4. 1 point
    Reconstruction of Total Solar Irradiance since the Maunder Minimum - L. Balmaceda, Max-Planck-Institut fur Sonnensystemforschung Abstract "Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder Minimum of 1.3 Wm2" aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2007/19/aa6725-06/aa6725-06.html
  5. 1 point
    SWPC has numbered the region, so that would mean that after midnight it will be in the sunspot list. The current prediction model of SILSO (SIDC) has indeed a few models as Marcel has explained. There is no prediction yet for the full cycle, we do not know if a committee will be called together as there was with SC24. Currently there is no signs of a grand solar minimum and it also can't be predicted. At the end of SC23 some voices already said the same thing as there is now so nothing has changed . Also, not only sunspots are an indicator of the cycle so the models always use several methods. And each model has a bit of different output which led to big discussions with the SC24 prediction in the past (that's why the SC24 prediction had two predictions: low solar max and high solar max to be short). A very interesting page to keep your eyes on (because it's updated once and a while) is the study of Jan Janssens who follows the cycle up close and has interesting comparisons and data. Also there's an interesting look at the SC24-SC25 transition. Be sure to look and read all about it: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html
  6. 1 point
    Welcome James. I did not do all that much research to be honest about this but this is all I can tell from what I know. The SIDC has two models which you can find on the website. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle. One calls for a solar minimum pretty much this month with a sharp onset later this year with a very short minimum (which could indicate a SC25 that is likely stronger than SC24) and one model with a slow onset beginning in 2020. I looked at the graph on the SWPC site but that looks like it has solar minimum in 2023 (!!!) but that must be some kind of error on their model. I do not think this is correct. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression We also have some news items that might interest you. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/367/20190102-solar-cycle-25-and-the-107-cm-radio-solar-flux and https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/364/20181111-are-we-at-the-beginning-of-solar-cycle-25 To top it of, this is also an interesting read http://www.stce.be/news/417/welcome.html
  7. 1 point
    Marcel de Bont, Yes, I am >97% in agreement with you. I had never seen that phenomenon in the SDO imagery before; it very well could be attributable to more of a software issue rather than a physical adjustment in the sensor electronics. Admittedly, my original post was somewhat of a tongue-in-cheek reflection, since sometimes image artifacts are blown out of proportion on various social media channels. Since this channel has a high-level scientific bent, I considered deleting my post altogether, but maybe it has engendered a jumping-off point for additional topics, like that presented by T. Sweany. T. Sweany, if you carefully observe the Total Solar Irradiance, you very well may conclude, backed by a large body of scientific research, that dramatic changes in temperature and climatic response on earth has practically nothing, relatively speaking, to do with the sun, since the sun is still behaving quite consistently and normal, similar to its behavior for the past several hundred years. If you can agree with that conclusion, then you'll need to look for the changes occurring here on planet earth, and in its atmosphere, to explain earth's weather/climatic changes. However, T. Sweany, it is understood that studying solar physics and the weather is probably not your chosen profession, and that you may have been subjected to a lot of misinformation, such as the idea that earth has now entered into a Grand Solar Minimum. In order for you to understand that is not the case, I recommend you direct your attention to the measurement of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI).
  8. 1 point
    The STAR is indeed a very good reference too, it also knows that NOAA isn't always that right and has it's own analysis and region designation as @Kaimbridge already noted. I always check them out for extra info so keep it in your bookmarks.
  9. 1 point
    Besides the obvious advice of seeking medical attention for this immediately, which I hope you will do if you haven't already... this is what I think: A "nearly 100%" correlation is unfortunately not a 100% correlation; you ought to expect your discovery to be discredited immediately without more data to show actual correlation. For instance, human beings do not possess geomagnetic-sensing capabilities as far as I or anyone on Earth knows, and if there is indeed research and experimentation showing real causality in Space Weather, and not proven medical conditions, please provide such, so as to convince me/anyone to see things your way and begin moving forward with this newfound discovery. This log of yours uses SWL's data only, which is absolutely incomplete in terms of the information we could probe within the Earth's magnetosphere. It could also have been below 15% humidity every day your son had an episode, which would be a more positive correlation in your experiment than what it is you're attempting to prove is a causality. Science is, in part, eliminating information from the "equation" that doesn't need to be there in order to ascertain some semblance of real truth and fact; have you done that at all? Look up: "Confirmation Bias" In any case, get your son to a Doctor. Doctors are trained to diagnose and choose a method of treatment for countless conditions in their school of medicine. Treating seizures is more imperative than noting coincidences in Earth's geomagnetic state. After all, would you rather discover the cause of his seizures was something that was too poorly understood to be treated, or a known disease that likely can be treated?? I choose the latter!
  10. 0 points
    Theartist: No need for the ad hominem, please. Respectfully, to some, it reduces the value of your comment. On the bright side, it's why I picked this sunny day here in Maryland to bite on your comment If you look at ir absorption bands of co2, ch4, and h2o and relative atmospheric composition in a convective atmosphere (h2o!), milankovich cycles (obliquity!), co2 ppms and temperature data from antarctica and greenland over 100ks years (which leads which? what are the ppms of co2 in greenland cores?), other energetic events during solar maximum (solar flares, CMEs), the difference in percentage of UV contributing to TSI between solar max and min, solar activity over the last 11k years (1900s!), I think you'll have a bigger picture. Tony Sweany: For some, my guess is well after fingers freeze to the keyboards of some in the northern hemisphere who are banging out articles about global warming. For others, if the next solar maximum is less than the prior one which was the lowest in more than 125 years based only on the number of sunspots, and the earth starts to cool or warm less quickly based on UAH, RSS, or future satellite data while co2 increases, to me and others, that will be the nail in the coffin of the Theory. But even if the Theory is right, a warmer world, on net, is a wetter one and crops do better with more co2. Paleo records show life flourishes during warmer periods... after all, we're in an ice age right now!
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