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  1. Yesterday
  2. Unfortunately, our predictions of the arrival of Solar-generated events are limited by technology and current knowledge. To know when and where, exactly, the event will affect Earth, may require additional satellite observatories. To reliably forecast weather for any practical purposes requires a substantial investment in instruments which can observe the events which we're forecasting. Additionally, the Earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere play a significant role in this forecasting, yet both of those are not completely understood yet and cannot be looked at for meaningful data as to how the Earth will interact with an incoming event. And so, we resort to the observation and analysis of patterns, and hence we have no exacts in our forecasts.
  3. Last week
  4. Space weather is a global phenomenon that impacts our entire planet in some cases but mainly areas around the poles. Different space weather events affect our planet in different ways. Sometimes there can be very local more extreme disturbances of the magnetic field during a geomagnetic storm which we can use magnetometers for that are stationed around the world. However, accurately estimating and modeling these kind of local disturbances is not possible as far as I know. You can use the OVATION model which gives a rough estimate of the strength of the auroral oval 30 minutes in the future but its just that. An estimate.
  5. Marcel, Thank you for the response. I believe that model is what NOAA and NASA use to predict when a storm will arrive in the earth's atmosphere. That is what generates the forecasts to which I was referring in my original post. However, those forecasts only provide the expected time and duration of an occurrence. However, are there any space weather events and respective forecasts that do contain location related information as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere? I'm sorry that I was not sufficiently specific about that last part. In order to predict when a specific object will be impacted by the event, it would be helpful to know where the event will be. Thanks again, Forrest
  6. I assume you are looking for computer generated solar wind models? Try the ENLIL models from NOAA and NASA https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil
  7. Reading the NOAA space weather forecast text files, there does not appear to be any information to locate wx phenomena in 3D space. For space weather that has a global impact, I can appreciate that it may be pointless to try to identify locations in an meaningful way. However, are there any space weather events and respective forecasts that do contain location related information? My team is trying to build a model for space that is similar to predicting both when and where an aircraft will encounter a terrestrial weather event given the aircraft's flight path and the location of the weather. While we appreciate the environments are very different, we are wondering whether it is possible to do the same modeling for any space objects and space weather events. Thanks for any pointers, Forrest
  8. Earlier
  9. Het is erg lastig te zeggen welke erupties wanneer aangekomen zijn en welke ons gemist hebben. Alles lijkt in een grote soep veranderd te zijn bij wijze van spreken. Heb wat foto's gezien uit Noord Amerika en een hele mooie uit Nieuw Zeeland zoals in het nieuws gebruikt is. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/387/20190514-strong-g3-geomagnetic-storm Het klopt dat CMEs afremmen onderweg naar de Aarde en hoe snel zulke plasma wolken afremmen is de kunst om dat te voorspellen en nog steeds erg lastig. Er word wel degelijk rekening mee gehouden in ieder geval maar om het accuraat te voorspellen is zeer lastig zeker bij zulke langzame CMEs. In ieder geval ik denk dat de CME die voor de G3 storm zorgde de CME was die afgelopen zaterdag gelanceerd was.
  10. Volgens mij is het zo dat bij een CME uitbarsting (dus niet de normale CME, bijv bij een coronaal gat), de snelheid bij het verlaten van de zon veel hoger is dan het moment waarop het bij de aarde aankomt. Bij het voorspellen van de aankomst, heb ik het idee dat men de snelheid van de storm juist meet, maar dit gebruikt voor het hele traject van de storm. Denk ik juist dat de snelheid tijdens de reis afneemt? Dan zou de G3 van dinsdag voor de middag logisch zijn en dergelijke berekeningen aangepast moeten worden. Ik merk vaak dat hoge Kp waardes en G stormen onverwachts (vroeg) aankomen. Eigenlijk zouden gisteravond (woensdag 15 mei 2019) de bewuste cme bij aarde komen, volgens voorspellingen, maar in de metingen is niets bijzonders te zien. Dit zijn puur speculaties op eigen bevindingen, maar was wel nieuwsgierig of er wetenschappelijke waarde aan hangt.
  11. I always thought it stood for Kiloparsec, but in solar weather, that makes no sense.
  12. 14/5/2019 ..Aurora mostly behind the rain clouds but did manage to get a rainbow in shot as well
  13. Oh, dank, nieuw topic is beter. Ze zijn wel volledig aarde gericht, hadden extreem groot vlak en duurden lang (12 en 13 mei) vooral die van zondag. Ik vermoed dat die van zondag sneller is gearriveerd dan verwacht en de g3 heeft veroorzaakt. Zijn er al foto's van, bijv. Uit Canada?
  14. Hoi Ferdie. Even je post verplaatst en een nieuw topic aangemaakt. Inderdaad onverwachts een Kp van 7 maar helaas overdag voor de Benelux. Helaas zijn de condities al lang niet meer goed genoeg voor de Benelux dus de kans vanavond zal zo goed als nul zijn. Er is echter nog steeds een, mogelijks twee CMEs die nog steeds kunnen aankomen waarschijnlijk morgen of overmorgen. Dit zijn geen sterke CMEs maar met de juiste waardes... wie weet. Zal niet al te veel hopen maar we weten het nooit...
  15. Vandaag overdag (Canada dus) kp7, volgens mij te maken met de cme van zondag. Er waren er daarna meer en lang durende, dus vanavond/vannacht iets te zien? Volgens mij wordt het helder en halve maan.
  16. Maximum flux of the day also added to the summary table
  17. Something I will never forget... Primary: ...and secondary:
  18. Secondary GOES satellite data is now being archived daily so you'll be able to see the secondary X-ray flux there too. Max flux of the day is also added to the graph. As an extra desert we've added 4 years of secondary x-ray data to the archive... think that should be enough
  19. We’ll look into it! Added to our project board. Only the app has a switch. The site only enables dark mode when Mac OS has it enabled and can be turned on/off there. Other browsers currently don’t have it build into it because it’s a new web standard.
  20. Hello! Also the Italian translator is an active Ham Radio 😁 📡 I'm interested in VLF-ELF, in my web site there are some pages about that. 73's de Max IK0VVE
  21. Ya know, I was going to suggest adding the secondary data! P=) Are you going to add it to the archive page, too? Also regarding the archive page, why not add the maximum flux for that day, either as a numerical statement (like the background flux) and/or as a line on the graph, at its time location, like you have been doing with the flares, and mark it as "max flux"—and if there is/are flare(s), you can just mark the largest as the "max flux"? Regarding the background, I normally use dark mode (easier on the eyss): Is there a way to add a light/dark background mode option, or just make it a gray background, no matter which mode you are in?
  22. The solar flare page got a little extension with the backup satellite data being added to the graph. If you've wondered why this graph is dark, this screenshot was taken in Safari oen a Mac with dark mode enabled. .
  23. It hasn't been overly eventful for aurora at mid latitudes, that's solar minimum for you. This is version2 time lapse from a wonderful G2/G2moderate event back in 20 April 2018 Enjoy with the sound on aurora australis, central east coast Tasmania, Australia ADAPTED LYRICS: I come home in the morning light, My Hubby asks "Have you been out all night?" Oh, Hubby dear, We ARE the fortunate ones. This girls' hav'n some fu-un. Oh-h Chasers, Just wanna have fu-un. The app dings in the middle of the night My Hubby asks "Aurora tonight?" Oh, Hubby dear, You know you're still number one, but CHASERS they wanna have fun Ohh CHASERS just wanna have ... ... ... SOME A-U-R-O-R-A ! ! CHASERS THEY WANT ! ! WUNNA HAVE FUN ! ! CHASERS ! Some boys take a beautiful girl And hide her away from the rest of the world. I wanna be the one to walk in the AURORA. Oh girls, WE wanna have fun That's all WE really wa-a-nt ... AURORA fu-un When the work'n day is done ..... 20 April 2018 - version1 "only worry in the world is the tide gunna reach my chair tripod"
  24. Hi Marcel, I've been following the SpaceWeatherlive website and getting its alerts for a few months now. The way we Ham Radio enthusiasts interpret the information supplied by the site is different from, for example, Aurora photographers. In general, when there's aurora around, it's bad for us as that aurora is actually the Plasma from the sun hitting the Ionosphere around the Earth which we use to bounce our short wave signals long distances off and the impact of the plasma raises the background noise level on radios, making it harder to hear long distance, weak signals. The charged Ions that come ahead of the plasma from Coronal Holes, CMEs etc. however is good news for us as the more the Ionosphere is electrically charged, the better the signals reflect. Such Ionisation normally occurs through sun spots (explosions on the sun) but as we are currently at the bottom of the 11 year long sunspot cycle, these are quite rare, so any effects such as pre-auroral enhancement are very welcome to the Amateur Radio Community, when trying to make long distance contacts on the short wave bands and spaceweatherlive provides alerts when such conditions might be occuring and hence is a valuable resource for Amateur radio. Regards Ed.
  25. Hey Steve, welcome! Thanks a ton for your input. It is really interesting for a novice like me who has virtually no connection to HAM radio at all to read about your experiences. We'll continue our research into the subject and see in what way we can improve SWL to cater more towards HAM radio users as well. This forum is a quick and easy first step to accomplish this so let's hope more HAM radio users find their way here. I think a dedicated page with all the critical info for HAM radio users would be a nice thing to have to make SWL more complete and even more interesting to the HAM radio community.
  26. Hi, yes, I've seen it. Thank you very much for advising and for all the answers. A hug.
  27. We've made some improvements to the dark mode in the app, it should be way faster now and more responsive. The dark mode for Mac OS also got further improvements for better graph display.
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