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  1. Today
  2. Excellent, touching upon a hot topic boiling underneath the surface of this little corner on the internet! 😎 Thank you for your post, and I hope it is not your last! Now to check your dates in jsOrrery. 🙂
  3. I think both of you were getting the gist of what I think is going on, which is some magnetic reconnection effects causing inward (downward) flow of plasma on the outer regions of denser streamer formation, plasma that was previously at escape velocities outward. Coupled with the expected temperatures (probably at least 1 million K), and the apparent constant velocity of the flow (it didn't seem to be significantly accelerating inward), it is less likely due strictly to gravitation; it just looks atypical, counterintuitive, and something I had never noticed before in the C2 coronagraph. A longer link of video clip (i.e., plus/minus one day centered around the event) is required to properly observe the phenomena in context, so that is why I was pointing the reader to the SOHO link so they can create their own higher-resolution video for observation. Cheers. Another point I wish to make is that here was a case where we actually get to see the inward flow of matter in the solar wind, but could it possibly be happening significantly, even though rarely observed optically? Maybe the reverse flow of matter is significant enough to affect the surface flow of the photosphere plasma, and this is an out-of-the-box idea related to the one Hannes Alfvén was offering for an explanation of its apparent differential rotation.
  4. As a hobby, I study the effect the planets have on the sun, that causes sunspots. In the period between 26 October and 5 November we will be able to get some sunspots. This will be the last sunspots in 2019. It should indicate that 2019 will end up with between 278 and 283 days without sunspots. We might even get sunspots in the period belonging to SC25. However, as I said, its just an hobby so I might of course be wrong! RAB.
  5. Yesterday
  6. This reminds me of other astrophysical effects. Pulsars have phenomena where some electrons and positrons confined by magnetic fields at lower latitudes flow out one side via the current sheet and eventually return back to the pulsar. That flow, aside from the gamma ray emissions that escape to space, return back and strike the pulsar. I believe this is both inside and outside the light cylinder. This is the generation mechanism of pulsar wind that leads to nebulae around pulsars such as Vela. ill have to locate the paper when I get home, it’s also a lecture on YouTube at Cornell IIRC.
  7. The videos has caused our monthly bill to rise to more than double. Gif’s are also relatively big in size and can further Increase the monthly billing. We disabled videos because of the increase in costs. We want to keep most of the features free to use so we have to take measures. apart from that... as you could see in the gif, there was some ejecta leaving the sun resulting in the magnetic field lines to open up into space and probably reconnect a bit later. But still the sun has magnetic field lines that are open into the interplanetary space and that gap in corona may look more dark when seen from that point of view. Just a guess
  8. Marcel, consider how many solar radii out the 'reverse flows' are. (BTW, videos, rather than GIFS, are much better in resolution quality and much easier to upload, and allow viewers to start/stop, and they actually are not much different in total memory size, so please consider allowing the upload of videos as in the past, yes?) Also Marcel, although we have seen CME material collapse, have you ever seen this phenomena before in the coronagraph imagery, what appears like 'reverse flow' back against the outflowing solar wind? Marcel, thanks for prodding me to dig further; I just came upon this reference, which may provide an answer, and they admit inbound waves are not something commonly observed: INBOUND WAVES IN THE SOLAR CORONA: A DIRECT INDICATOR OF ALFVÉN SURFACE LOCATION.
  9. Just some plasma that tried to escape but got caught by the Sun's gravity causing it to stream back to the solar surface?
  10. Please kindly answer me, dear reader (should you choose): Do you see the phenomenon I'm trying to point out in the following animation? Have you ever seen that before? What is your explanation for it? The phenomena occurs in the last half of the above animation. It gives the appearance of a 'reverse flow' running back toward the sun. In order to see it better, one can look at the animation directly at SOHO Movie Theater, inputting the time coordinates for the morning of 2019-10-10. Do the following two images, from the reference to the Hannes Alfvén paper provided in this thread, suggest what is going on?
  11. H. Alfvén had a theory: "If an ion cloud invades the magnetic field of the sun, a considerable part of the rotational moment of the sun can be transferred to the cloud within a reasonable length of time. ... The fact that the sun does rotate more slowly at high latitudes may indicate that a process of this kind is going on... "If an electrically conducting magnetized body rotates, electrically charged particles in its environment will have a tendency to take part in the rotation. "If a number of charged particles, e.g., an ion cloud, is initially at rest in the neighborhood of the body, a system of currents is produced which accelerates the particles and retards the rotation of the body, thus equalizing their angular velocities. ...this effect may be of importance in solar rotation." Source: "Remarks on the Rotation of a Magnetized Sphere with Application to Solar Radiation" (PDF).
  12. Last week
  13. I believe there may have been a stealth CME last night. Looks like it’s relaxed again, most of the active regions shifted to coronal holes. Very weird.
  14. In order to 'double dip', the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux will need to sustain daily values in the 65-66 range (or lower), as that is what was observed in Nov. 2018 when the current low for this solar minimum transition was established: It appeared the currently 'bald sun' was going to relax back to those '66 levels' a couple of days ago at the end of 10-10-19; and yet, the next day there was almost a 2-point pop back up into the 68's: Could yesterday's bump be attributable to something we can observe over at SDO/helioviewer.org? For example, was it due to the polar jets and a large prominence that danced on the NE limb for a day (figure below)? If so, even without sunspots, are the polar crown filaments/prominences too numerous now, such that we will not see the 'double dip' in the F10.7cm? It is hard to say...for were we not previously seeing similar activity (figure below) on the solar disc back during the time period when the low in the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux was established?
  15. (Source of graph: NWU Space Research Neutron Monitors) (to be continued)
  16. Earlier
  17. I wish to try and clarify the above statement. The title of that poster (below), was "Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles": Additionally, the poster (below) with very similar content [including the statement, "the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with the error estimate ~15%"] was published on December 13, 2018 [for American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2018; December 10, 2018 - December 14, 2018; Washington, DC; United States], titled, "Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles": From the figure (repeated below) above the "Conclusions" in both of those posters, it indicates their SC25 prediction was based on data up to 2017.5: The more recent paper previously cited in this thread titled, Solar Activity Forecast for the Next Decade, given at a presentation on June 09, 2019, [stating, "the mean hemispheric sunspot number at the maximum will be about 50 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with an error estimate of ~15%"], from which I took the SC25 forecast parameters, was quite likely using updated data. That forecast of "about 50" is also found in the following two more recently published posters: Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles published June 30, 2019 [for IAU Symposium 354: Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations; June 30, 2019 - July 06, 2019; Copiapo; Chile] Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter published August 05, 2019 [for Solar Heliospheric Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) Workshop; August 05, 2019 - August 09, 2019; Boulder, CO; United States].
  18. Before updating this thread with current 'cosmic ray' data, here are a couple of key slides from that video I posted a few months ago:
  19. Guys, thank you for responding, because it may have been the further impetus I needed to look into her forecast further. After reviewing her presentation again, I don't think she mentions the black lines. Based on her paper from 2008, those black lines (may) represent what they call a "reference solution", which is just one step in the model's production of an eventual forecast, which apparently is both the high fidelity jagged red lines in the top slide, and the smoothed red line in the bottom slide. She states they predicted SC24 pretty well in 2008, and their model may be able to look-ahead eight years into the future, and possibly longer. I have a lot more respect for her forecast now, and she may come out looking like a genius by the time SC25 is over.😊
  20. Looks like she got 24 pretty close. Maybe she made some theoretical updates over the years and never updated the old 23 data?
  21. That’s a good observation and indeed true, I assume they don’t explain why their model is a bit off in earlier cycles. So we can take that 25th cycle prediction as a bit off course as well...
  22. This morning I revisited the 'Kitiashvili/NASA Forecast', and something caught my eye. Below are a couple of slides from her presentation: If the black line (in the above slides) is her model's prediction, doesn't it significantly undershoot the strength of SC23?
  23. Reading the description you linked, it says: The objective of the mission is to perform close-up, high-resolution studies of the Sun and its inner heliosphere. The new understanding will help answer these questions: How and where do the solar wind plasma and magnetic field originate in the corona? How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability? How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere? How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? The figure I linked showing the polar X-ray jets was from a paper highlighting the use of the Hinode satellite to answer those questions, too.🤓 This solar minimum is turning out to be deeper than what I initially thought it was (based on my observation of the Bremen Composite months ago). The Lyman-Alpha Composite has not been at its current levels--for such a sustained period of time--since its inception. If this minimum 'double dips', in order that the 'Adjusted Flux rule' (I cited earlier in this thread 😊) is not violated, then we very well may be headed into a very weak solar cycle, at the NASA/Kitiashvili prediction levels (which is discussed in the thread titled, Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 1. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA).
  24. Ahh yes that’s definitely it. It was quite large in size, at least 4 🌎. I find the polar regions of the sun very interesting, been wondering if there’s some vortex structure like Saturn (amongst some other issues). Too bad we won’t find out until the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter arrives at the higher latitudes in 2026. After the dynamics that showed up at Jupiter’s poles when the first Juno pics started flowing back, I think anything could be possible. I wonder if we will still be in solar minimum then? 😎
  25. Hmmm....maybe you were seeing polar X-ray jets? These are described in the following: (source)
  26. SOLAR WIND I just came across a tidbit on the deeper science ("Hinode" satellite reveals the origin of the solar wind) that might be of interest to some readers. It would be nice to have a better english translation: High speed solar wind has the same elemental composition ratio as the photosphere from the polar region. Slow solar wind erupts from the equatorial region at the same elemental composition ratio as the corona.
  27. One of the more concrete things we know regarding solar activity is that the flux and sunspot number have historically mirrored each other very well; this is demonstrated mathematically with either a linear regression, or a polynomial fit (for a little more finesse), per discussion in this paper, "The Solar Flux and Sunspot Number; A Long-Trend Analysis". Now then, Svaalgard (as pointed out above in his six year old paper) was indicating that the relationship between the two had "steadily deteriorated in the past decade to the point where the sunspot number for a given flux has decreased by about a third." But the more recent paper from 2018 I just cited points out that there was only a blip in the correlation for both SC24 and SC21. Generally, it is observed that the rate of rise in solar flux at the beginning of a solar cycle correlates with the strength of the cycle, i.e., the Waldemeir Effect; strong cycles rise to their maximum faster than weak cycles. ------------------------------ ------------------------------ ------------------------------ Today the Observed Flux and Adjusted Flux were equivalent (proceeding into 'the Crossover' discussed at the beginning of this thread)::
  28. Does the flux rise dramatically at the end of minimum or is it gradual? There are a few small active regions but nothing to write home about. I assume this is breaking all current models?
  29. "The 10.7cm Solar Flux is currently one of the best indices of solar activity we have. It now forms a consistent, uninterrupted database covering more than 50 years." (link) The following statement has held true for the F10.7cm Flux since its inception in 1944: "The Solar Minimum Nadir in a solar cycle's solar minimum period has always occurred within 3 months of the minimum value of the monthly average of Adjusted F10.7cm." Up to this point in the current SC 24/25 solar cycle transition, the minimum value of the monthly average of Adjusted F10.7cm occurred 10 11 months ago, back in 2018 December November. Obviously, in order for the above statement to hold true for the current cycle transition, we will have to see the Adjusted F10.7cm proceed to a sustained period of low values we have not yet seen in this cycle. 🤪 So then, just how deep is this solar minimum going to go?😳
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