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  3. Responding with the first section regarding the magnetic field and will finish the other part at lunch later. Here is a PowerPoint slide from a nasa presentation on the sun and the “11 year cycle” and the field twisting itself up, thereby creating sunspots. The last time I mentioned the “sun” and “birkeland” in the same sentence I got insulted and roasted out, it was on reddit of course. I’ll check that stuff out, thanks. I’ve been pondering if there could perhaps be some “resistance” effect played by the planets on the current sheath.
  4. What I'm possibly showing in this thread is that there are large geomagnetic disturbances related to planetary positioning, apart from tidal pull of sunspots, because these geomagnetic disturbances are occurring even as the sunspot activity is waning; planetary electrical/magnetic influence (including suppression, as well as accentuating) of the sun's magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet comes to the forefront.
  5. Well, I don't think the idea of twisted 'flux tubes' (if that is what you are referring to) needs to be abandoned. The question is as to why spots periodically manifest in a cyclical manner, beyond 'random walk'. The periodicity aligns with cyclical power density of planetary clocking. The recent paper on tidal pull (A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo) conveyed that Tayler instability from planetary gravitational pull provides significant enough perturbation. However, if planetary clocking has significant direct influence on the manifestation of solar activity, there likely is a more intricate physical mechanism affecting spot manifestation (from which they they have buoyantly conveyed to the photosphere from the tacholine) and geomagnetic storm activity than just a tidal/gravitational pull of the planets, or it would have already been figured out by now. 🤓😄 The other stuff you mention about the stars is very interesting, and will take me some time to look into it. Thanks. A 'Cameron Bridges' mentioned a reference (on this thread, Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?) suggesting influence from other stars. And then there was the @Birkeland2nd twitter feed suggesting galactic magnetic fields (pointed to in the opening of this thread, Heliosphere Bubble Resonation). But before chasing galactic (major perturbations exterior to our solar system) theories, I suspect that planetary clocking as a direct influence has not been explored sufficiently. But your referenced star idea sheds new light. You might be referring to the magnetic fields getting twisted by differential rotation at the tacholine, i.e., the omega-effect (thus creating the flux tubes), that are then buoyantly conveyed to the surface by convection. That is the general view, but theories on the solar dynamo process are fair game, since it is not completely settled. I'm going to quickly drop some imagery here. There is A LOT that can be said about it, and I'm not doing it justice by just dropping these photos, but for now, I'll let it germinate with you. I think NASA spending just a tiny smidgen of their budget toward this line of research could open up some new vistas. See the 'sunspots' all over the place on this inner 'sun' in this photo: See the sunspot at the north pole in this next figure? A polar coronal hole? Howabout this 'solar wind spray' in this next depiction?: (Source of imagery: Spinning Plasma Ball Experiment) It has been discovered that the planets have plasma dust rings following them in their orbit, which would factor into the planetary interaction with the heliospheric current sheet.
  6. Interesting. I wonder if little 'insignificant' stuff like this bump in the microwave energy, apparently apart from typical 'thermal gyroresonance' above active regions, can hold clues to the bigger picture; e.g., does the sun fusion process resonate (like a beating heart)? The 'bump' I'm referring to is not the 'spikes', but rather, the lack of the average flux not yet returning to the previous lows (although the 'spikes' could be interrelated with that.)
  7. This is very interesting. I know this is a hypothetical issue, but would sunspots in general still be caused by the field lines being twisted up as is believed now? Or would that not apply any longer? And if so, would that mean that some stars might not even have sunspots? I ask because some stars are very peculiar, they have sunspots in locations that our sun does not. There is a star which has spots at the pole that is visible to us, obviously not sure if they are on the pole facing away. Then there are stars like this monster linked below, which has spots at the equator AND the poles. If clocking applies, do you think other star partners could influence it? Because Zeta Andromedae has a star with inclination at the north polar region which could be causing that sunspot. It also has two partners which are respectively near the equator. https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/starspots-seen-zeta-andromedae
  8. Ahh that could be the correct terminology. No those aren’t at the same location. It is gone now but when the flux was around 74, it was closer to 90 degrees latitude.
  9. How quickly I forgot, there WAS a small sunspot region at the first of this month, and although the sunspots quickly disappeared, maybe(?) the sun has not 'relaxed' back to the depths of solar minimum lows (although that does not explain the anomalous spikes, including the one on 7/26/19).
  10. Hi. I think the gaseous objects I point to in the 304Angstrom images above are prominences. Are you referring to similar activity with the term "pronounced jets", or something else?
  11. In this thread, I wish to reveal some more information I just uncovered. Out of sheer excitement, I wish to present this here and now. Even now, I'm currently in the process of assembling something to reveal here, so I plan to be updating this post. I present the evidence here, in a new light of understanding, but for now, this is VERY VERY PRELIMINARY, requiring critical scrutiny as to its merits. The evidence and ideas presented here will or will not eventually stand the test of validity. If the ideas shown here are proven meritorious, then the eventual implications on Space Weather Forecasting, going forward into the future, could be enormous. (Note, clicking on the following graphs may provide a sharper image.) Note, Position 11 and Position 2 involve a Jupiter/Uranus superior conjunction. The multi-month setup of Position 11 resulted in a large modulation of cosmic ray flux, as discussed in the thread titled, Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?.
  12. I noticed as soon as the flux ticked up there were very pronounced jets appearing in the polar region, larger than what I’ve seen lately. Related perhaps? I’m probably wrong.
  13. What a difference in just a couple of weeks: There are no new sunspots....what has changed. Whatever has changed, is it a precursor to a longterm trend?
  14. Even if one knew that the Solar Minimum (nadir) has passed (as I was hypothesizing with the 'Bremen Metric', although that is far from certain at the moment), I think it still is early to make a forward prognostication on the next cycle sunspot magnitude based strictly on magnitudes of a cycle's geomagnetic behavior during its prior solar minimum period. The reason for this is that the 'aa Index' can change significantly between the time of the Solar Minimum (nadir) and before the next cycle 'onset'; witness particularly the SC23/SC24 transition in the following graph: (Source of ISN data.) (Source of 'aa Index" data.)
  15. Yes, you may recall that is covered in the thread titled, Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 1. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA; (but this is an opportunity to bring new viewers 'up-to-speed'.😊) It was only after mentioning it over in the 'climate' thread, and going back and 'fact checking' the sunspot count that it occurred to me the current SC24 is already at 'Dalton Minimum' levels. That was a period of "lower-than-average global temperatures", as was (been hypothesized) the time of the Spörer Minimum, but those views on the latter have been challenged in the scientific literature (per this Wikipedia article).
  16. Interesting to note that NASA seems now to favour the idea that SC25 will be the weakest for 200 years. Article here : https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration
  17. The following two tweets are from someone whose name is showing up in some of the scientific literature I've been reviewing; he has been at this for several years. Really? It is that simple?! LOL...(I) may want to look at the data discussed in this thread more closely now.
  18. Earlier
  19. After further inspection, I don't think those events, by themselves, are enough to engender the solar flux boost, since they are not particularly unique to what is happening in the current solar environment.
  20. There is an opportunity here for some ‘constructive prediction’. Making forecasts is always fraught with danger, the opportunity for professional catastrophe is ever present; however we can look at the information we have and see if we can create something informative. We saw a solar ‘Kp’ impact coincidental with hurricane ‘Dorian’. Will it happen again - will it have an impact - or not? Coronal hole CH935 gave us the observed ‘Kp’ impact; happening like a lighthouse beam, it has sprayed the earth repeatedly, it is due again around 28th October (although with a new number). Will it be larger or smaller? R-M equinox effect may be relevant. October will still be in the hurricane season, close to autumn equinox; will there be significant surface disturbances active at that time? Will there be an identifiable impact reaction - or not? Will the returning coronal hole be too small to have an effect? Perhaps relevant to note that the Antarctic SSW seems also to have been coincident with the impact. We are starting to see media forecasts of ‘Worst winter for 30 years’. Based on “Spörer’s Law Years” and “R-M” effect we could see a serious drop in solar impact effects around the winter solstice with the associated contraction in the atmospheric structure, pulling activity back towards the equator with large scale polar excursions to the south. The potential for some serious discussion is evident – anyone willing to roll the dice and make a bet? Just for reference, Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina have been mentioned, Hurricane Katrina Originated Aug 23 2005, Rapidly intensifying Aug 26 – There was a large ‘Kp’ spike Aug24 in an otherwise quiet period. (refer Carrington Rotation CR2033) Hurricane Andrew Originated August 16 1992 Rapidly intensified Aug 23. There was a significant ‘Kp’ Spike Aug 23 (Refer Carrington Rotation CR1859).
  21. Kaimbridge, you might want to take another look: I've highlighted, with arrows, activity that was occurring on the sun during the time-windows in which the anomalous(?) F10.7cm readings were recorded: Maybe those readings were legitimate solar radio bursts related to the highlighted activity? Here is a link to the movie where one can check for themselves: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/latest48.php?q=0304
  22. I likewise did a double take when I saw that, but as http://www.solen.info/solar noted, “(t)he measurement at 20h UT was erroneous (outside the 3% error range) and was therefore replaced by the measurement at 17h UT).” Usually when there is a spike like that it is a “flare enhanced” reading—and there was certainly no flare enhancement yesterday, LOL! So, given the 17:00 value of 69.7 and 69.9 for 23:00, I’d just split the baby and call it 69.8 P=).
  23. When I first observed the large spikes in the raw F10.7cm data (plotted above, and repeated below as seen at the LISIRD site), I wondered whether they represented a 'measurement error' that had not been corrected. However, being a ground-based instrument, one would think the authorities would have eventually taken measures to fix a repeated error systemic to their recording/measurement apparatus. I then went back through the spaceweatherlive archive and checked a number of those spikes and determined that they were indeed associated with days having elevated solar activity (including flares). I lack a reasonable explanation for yesterday's boost, and I hope someone more knowledgeable on the matter can weigh in. The following paper gives an overall review of the F10.7cm measurement, in attempt to answer questions: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7); K. F. Tapping. It mentions the possibility of rapidly varying 'radio bursts' occurring on minute timescales. However, there is also mention of the possibility of radar sources of error in the early days, before relocation of the measurement site.
  24. Here we go: Gribbin, J., and S. Plagemann, 1973: Discontinuous change in Earth's spin rate following Great Solar Storm of August 1972. Nature, 243, 26-27, doi:10.1038/243026a0. "In August 1972, however, an even greater disturbance occurred on the Sun. ...we have indeed found a discontinuous change in the length of day, and a change in the rate of change of the length of day (a glitch) immediately after that event. Changes in the length of day, and thus in the spin rate of the Earth, are revealed by regular measurements of Universal Time (UT) carried out at many observatories around the world. For our purpose, we are interested in UT2, the version of Universal Time with the effects of the Chandler Wobble and seasonal variations removed. The difference between Atomic Time (AT) and UT2 shows, on average, a monotonic increase as the Earth's spin slows down and the length of day increases."
  25. We just had a very uncharacteristic boost in the F10.7cm today, per the figure below: (data source). That was a four-point bump within three hours!...very strange.
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