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  1. Yesterday
  2. Interesting you should say that, because there are A LOT more aerosols in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activity, and you may remember from school that non-conductors can develop electrostatic charge. The sun electromagnetically stirs up the ionosphere, and closer to ground in the thermosphere, where a lot of weather is generated, anthropogenic activity puts A LOT of electromagnetic energy into the atmosphere. So combine all of THAT particular type of anthropogenic activity and what do you get? I have no idea, but possibly that type of anthropogenic activity, in lieu of CO2 (which makes up less than 0.05% of the atmosphere) should be considered in 'abrupt climate change' or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), yes? What do you think about those ideas? Do they hold any merit?
  3. Another little addition to the files, if we examine the data surrounding the famous "Perfect Storm" of 29th October 1991, we can see that the influence of solar impacts 'May' be relevant to other surface storm activity, not just the tropical variety. Gets more interesting the further you push this concept. The immediacy of reaction tends to imply that there is more to the concept than just atmospheric expansion or even shock wave impacts. Electromagnetic effects have been proposed; a storm may be considered as a rapidly rotating conductive mass active within a magnetic field. Change or increase that field and rotation would/could/should increase. That particular period was very active overall from a solar impact viewpoint.
  4. The next image of #6 is VERY interesting, because when compared to the 'scrolling magnetogram' image (Figure 5 above), the MDI Magnetogram at solar monitor.org looks like it somehow got flipped upside down: The next image of #7 indicates that this image (or the 'scrolling magnetogram' imagery) was also flipped upside down. I highlighted a 'Marker Feature' in the image, to compare with the same feature highlighted in the 'scrolling magnetogram', as a point of reference. The next image of #8 shows it to be so very diffuse and faint that it doesn't even show up, like it faintly did in the 'scrolling magnetogram'. Next is the image of #9:
  5. The next image shows #3, #4 & #5. #4 morphed into #5 and they were located very close to each other. A very significant finding in this image is that #3 looks much more diffuse and inconsequential than when it appeared in the 'scrolling magnetogram' (i.e., shown in Figure 3 in previous posting above). Its area did extend up above 40deg latitude (in the southern hemisphere), but because it is so diffuse, it is a type of structure that may be overlooked in a real-time, day-to-day survey:
  6. UPDATE: In Table I above, the "Duration" values are not accurate, and what I was calling "42deg latitude" may actually have been "40deg latitude" (this is due to my incomplete grasp of how the 'scrolling magnetograms' were assimilitating data). But that really is not important at this point. If the photospheric mag-structures last longer than a few days, and are of 'sufficient' size, then that is what makes them of 'significance'. (Note, the adjectives 'sufficient' and 'significance' are to be understood within the context of this discussion.) I'm now in the process of searching what magnetograms are historically available (there are disparate databases at various places online that abruptly end in time), in order to cross-correlate the data so that we will have a decent idea of what to look for, going forward. Make no mistake, what we have uncovered here is quite significant in providing an important marker that will herald the point in time at which Solar Minimum Nadir will occur. This is a significant finding, quite-so, to the extent that I haven't found a source in the scientific literature, or elsewhere, where solar physicists are discussing it. Make no mistake, "onset" or "terminator" or other nebulous and sometimes misused terms are NOT the official "START" of a solar cycle. The commonly accepted scientific definition of a solar cycle's "START" is where Solar Minimum Nadir occurs, and I now think I have come across a marker, found in the magnetograms, that will tell us when the "START" of SC25 is impending. Furthermore, these mag-structures appear relatively quickly, within one-two Carrington Rotations, such that we do not need to wait for some nebulously defined "onset" in the future to see a "quick-change" marker that signifies the new cycle. Another important point is that we are looking specifically for magnetic-structures above the Critical Latitudes, rather than bright-points or prominences or 'jets' above the Critical Latitudes. It is the occurrence of photospheric magnetic-structures above the Critical Latitudes that provides a strong indication of underlying dynamo magnetic activity, and the mag-structures of 'significance' manifested in only a relatively few, but quite-telling, appearances at the juncture of the Solar Minimum Nadir in the previous solar minimum transition. This is in contrast to more flighty activity, like bright-points or prominences, which occur long before and long after Solar Minimum Nadir, and quite frequently above the Critical Latitudes, and are consequently too numerous to pinpoint the Solar Minimum Nadir, getting lost in the 'noise'. For the purposes of cross-correlation, solarmonitor.org is one source offering the convenience of quick data access, though it limits us to what they choose to present. Nonetheless, we will try to work with it. Our first step, then, is to compare what the mag-structures, called out in Table I above, look like at solar monitor.org. Below is #1; notice it it extends significantly above +32deg latitude: Next is #2; BINGO, it is much more intense, and significantly above 32deg latitude:
  7. Last week
  8. Method and Findings The objective of this first study of the 'scrolling magnetograms' was to come up with a more precise forecast for when the Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) will occur in the SC24/25 transition. Features of the 'scrolling magnetograms', and critical attributes of the magnetic-structures that were evaluated, are highlighted in Figure 1 and Figure 2. Figure 1. Features of the 'scrolling magnetogram' applet and important attributes of the mag-structures are highlighted in this figure. The 'scrolling magnetogram' applet at the NSO gong site allows a maximum duration of 62 days, i.e., a little over two Carrington Rotations (CR). This is a convenient size to break a problem up into good size chunks (not too big or too small) when evaluating a multiple-month epoch up to a year or longer in length. This study evaluated the following attributes of the mag-structures, particularly how they changed over the progression of solar minimum: their polarity; their intensity (i.e., their brightness and apparent image 'solidity' versus 'diffusivity'); their size (area); periods, of at least one CR in duration, when no mag-structure appeared in the scrolling window, termed 'blank pages', an example of which is shown in Figure 2; their latitudes. Figure 2. A 'blank page' is the occurrence of no magnetic-structures (of sufficient size-of-interest) in the scrolling window. It was determined in this study that few mag-structures occurred above the Critical Latitudes of +/- 32deg, and particularly above +/- 42deg, during the SC23/24 transition. Those that did were primarily centered around the (Dec. 2008) SMN; their occurrence was a prime indicator that the SMN of SC23/24 was impending. Table I lists all the mag-structures found to occur above the +/- 32deg latitude for the SC23/24 transition. A subset of four (4) of these occurred on or above the +/- 42deg latitude. All four of those occurred during a 3-month window centered around the SMN. Table I. List of mag-structures that fell above the Critical Latitudes during the SC23/24 transition. Figures 3 thru 7 display mag-structures #1 thru #9 listed in Table I. Figure 3. Mag-structures #1 thru #4 from Table I. Figure 4. Mag-structure #5 and #6 from Table I. Figure 5. Mag-structure #6 and #7 from Table I. Figure 6. Mag-structure #8 from Table I. Figure 7. Mag-structure #9 from Table I. Conclusions Similar temporal trends of mag-structure activity, between the SC23/24 and SC24/25 transitions, is observed in the 'scrolling magnetograms'. All mag-structures on or above +/- 42 deg latitude occurred within one (1) month of the SC23/24 transition's SMN. To date, a total of zero (0) mag-structures have occurred above the Critical Latitudes in the SC24/25 transition. We consequently conclude the SC24/25 transition's SMN has not yet arrived. From our evaluation of the 'scrolling magnetograms' we forecast the SC24/25 transition's SMN will likely occur within a 3-4 month window centered around Jan. 2020. Possibly, with further study of the 'scrolling magnetograms, in combination with our other findings, higher confidence in our forecast of SC25 can be achieved.
  9. Method of Analysis and Findings The objective in this first study of the 'scrolling magnetograms' is to evaluate the character of the 'magnetic structures' in order to elucidate, with as much precision as possible, the temporal location of the upcoming Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) in the current SC24/25 transition. (Not all of the 'magnetic structures' of interest produce sunspots and/or are given an Active Region designation by NOAA.) The 'magnetic structure' attributes of prime concern for this first study are: their intensity (determined by their brightness, and solidity or diffusivity); their size (i.e., area); incidences with complete lack of 'magnetic structures' in the scrolling window, herein termed a 'blank page'; their polarity; their latitude. The last attribute, latitude, is determined to be the chief attribute that will signal close proximity to the SMN. The following two figures are annotated to highlight features in the magnetogram scrolling window, in order to help explain the method of analysis and features of interest. Figure 1. The 'Critical Latitudes' are at +/- 32 degrees, and +/- 42 degrees. Within one-month on either side of the month of SMN for the SC23/24 transition (i.e. Dec. 2008), some magnetic structures fell at latitudes higher than the 'Critical Latitudes'. Figure 2. We term a complete window without a single 'magnetic structure' as a 'blank page'. The applet at the NSO gong website allows a maximum scrolling window length of 62 days. This is a good length, covering a little over two Carrington Rotations, allowing a many-month evaluation to be broken down into useful chunks (i.e., not too big or too small). When performing an analysis covering many months, it is helpful to have many browser tabs open, each loaded-up with scrolling windows successively incremented in time, enabling one to quickly go back and forth comparing activity in different epochs. (For evaluation of more recent data, the "Image increment", circled Red in Figure 1, can be set to the value of 6, which will give a number of magnetogram images comparable to the files recorded back in the SC23/24 transition.) Here are our findings and conclusions to this first study: The first mag-structure in the SC23/24 transition that fell above a Critical Latitude occurred ~1.5 months before the SMN (i.e., first appearing on Oct. 19, 2008). Within one month on either side of the SMN of the SC23/24 transition, eight (8) 'magnetic structures' fell at higher latitudes than the 'Critical Latitudes'. All of those structures were easily discernible, and lasted more than a day or two, with most of those lasting many days in duration. A subset of four of those mag-structures fell on or above the +/- 42 deg Critical Latitude. These four mag-structures, falling at Critical Latitude of +/-42 deg (or higher), occurred within +/- one (1) month of the SMN. The list of all the mag-structures that fell above Critical Latitudes (at least as far out as May 2009) is found in Table I below. Figures 3-7 show the locations of the first nine of those structures. In the current SC24/25 transition, to date, a total of zero (0) mag-structures (lasting more than a day or two) have fallen above the Critical Latitudes. Based on our evaluation of the mag-structure's occurrence trends in the scrolling magnetograms, we forecast SMN will occur in February 2020, +/- one (1) month. Table I. List of Mag-Structures falling above the Critical Latitudes in months immediately before during and after the SMN of the SC23/24 transition. Figure 3. Location of mag-structures 1-4 listed in Table I. Figure 4. Location of mag-structures 5-6 listed in Table I. Figure 5. Location of mag-structures 6-7 listed in Table I. Figure 6. Location of mag-structure 8 listed in Table I. Figure 7. Location of mag-structure 9 listed in Table I. We now challenge the reader to look at the scrolling magnetograms for themselves to see whether or not they agree with this forecast.
  10. The 'scrolling magnetograms' show a progression of activity in the months leading up to the Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) in the SC23/24 transition epoch. We can see notable changes occurring within one-to-two Carrington Rotations during those months of progression. It is also observed that significant attributes occurred very near to--i.e., within one Carrington Rotation--the SMN in Dec 2008, and we think these quite possibly can act as indicative markers for the coming SMN in the SC24/25 transition. The SC24/25 transition is turning out to be a long, slow and weak solar minimum epoch, very similar to that of the SC23/24 transition. The notable changes and progression of activity we see in the 'scrolling magnetograms' of the SC24/25 transition are similar to what we observe in the SC23/24 transition. We therefore expect to similarly see the indicative markers near the coming SMN, to act as chief attributes heralding the arrival of the official START of Solar Cycle 25 (to be confirmed, officially, several months later from the tallying/averaging of the sunspot numbers). In our next installment, we'll cover some of the attributes and changes observed in the 'scrolling magnetograms'. (to be continued)
  11. The following figure is from a recent paper titled, "What the Sudden Death of Solar Cycles Can Tell Us About the Nature of the Solar Interior", by S. McIntosh, et. al.: I have annotated the graphs to show where SMN occurs, and to highlight "Pre-activity". The red dotted vertical lines are what the authors term as "terminators". Note the "terminator" placed in 1997, at the beginning of SC23, lies very very close to the "onset" for SC23 determined by K. Strong, et.al. (2009). There are two interesting takeaways from this figure: For the case of a very deep and long solar minimum period, the "terminator" occurred over two years after SMN. Significant "Pre-activity" is observed to have occurred in both cycles, again cautioning for the possibility that such activity, when it is happening, is not necessarily a confirmation that an "onset" of vigorous activity, immediately to follow, will occur. (to be continued)
  12. In light of the abnormally long solar minimum period prior to SC24, it would be nice to find out how it compared with the above data, and find out where the "onset" of SC24 occurred relative to SMN at the end of SC23. Possibly a clue is found in an earlier K. Strong paper, wherein the observed 'quick rise in activity' was originally termed, "the step". The following figure is from the Saba, Strong, & Slater paper titled, "Can we predict when the next solar cycle is about to take off?": I've annotated the above figure with a red vertical line to show where the SMN occurred, and a black vertical line (at August 1997) to point out where the paper implies "onset" or "the step" occurred. I also point out in the figure that there are individual data points representing X-ray spikes prior to the "onset", as a cautionary note; observing those spikes real-time might leave one with a false impression that the big "onset" has arrived, only to find out later that is not the case.
  13. The following figure is from the K. Strong, et.al. paper titled, "A new approach to solar cycle forecasting": I've annotated the figure with red vertical lines indicating the respective Solar Minimum Nadir locations. Per the definition of "onset" according to that paper, they occurred after Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN), as seen in the above figure, as follows: Cycle 21 "onset"...~6 months after SMN; Cycle 22 "onset"...~6 months after SMN; Cycle 23 "onset"...~12 months after SMN.
  14. Well if a full-cycle is ~360 years in length, and there are 12 Zodiacs through a complete cycle, then that would make a Zodiac 30 years in duration. 🤔 This just popped into my head, and I don't know if it is true. Maybe Michele would know. The following article says the sun sits in a new constellation every 2000 yrs: "What is the zodiac?" The first commenter to that article states, "(the) star pointed to by the Earth’s north pole—the North Star—changes over time. After 25,772 years the Earth’s north pole completes one cycle of its movement. ...One twelfth of a Great Year—a period of 2,147.67 years--is called an Age. As the constellations move in relation to the signs, the sign occupied by the Sun at the time of the spring equinox changes. Each age is named for the constellation that is rising on the spring equinox. During the past 2,000 years, the constellation Pisces has been rising at the time of the spring equinox. The Earth is currently moving from the Age of Pisces into the Age of Aquarius. A single Great Year of Western or classical astrology is approximately equal to five Great Cycles of the Mayan calendar. According the Mayans, a Great Cycle equals 13 bactuns or a period of 5,125 years. The current Great Cycle ended on December 21, 2012." 🤔 So an Age of 2147.67 divided by 12 equals 178.9725 yrs, which is 2x Gleissberg Cycles!
  15. thanks The artist For 22 yr Sun cycle I think that Saturn/Jupiter influence is for sure involved and it is the most powerful combinated power governing it. I have studied enough to ensure this. I like to understand long cyrcles and try to have a prevision on big solar storm who can hit us. The next year incoming Heliocentric congiunction between Saturn and Jupiter (and Pluton) will give us a lot of new material to sudy and, I am sure, a new view on our Solar system and on its interaction with our Galaxy. A lot of "surprises" will be under our Christmas three this year and much more on the next one of 2020. (Remind: Heliocentric Congiunction of Pluton/Saturn/Jupiter/) on 21-12-2020, not a common day, a Solstice) I want to explain a little bit about Pleiades. in the Pleiades new stars are borning (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01004713) and generates a lot of flares. Anyway they are new Stars and they have a Massive elettromagnetic emission (and light to!) Have a look here what happened on 2012, during Heliogeocentric congiunction with Pleiads and other Planets I think there are two places that have to be considered outside the Solar system to understand the most long circle: Pleiades and Vega. Reason about Vega it's because it's Pole is directly directed to Solar System in this moment, if you Know Vega there are a lot of reason because it should be important (Vega is rotating at incredible velocity. But I do not to talk about Vega Now because it is to difficult to enter the topic. Pleiades are "only" about 400 yl from the Sun. It is a big mistake to not consider Pleiades in the study of prevision of CME. I have discovered a lot of thinks about them but I can convince you just with one. In 2 of the three most powerful solar storms of last two century Uranus was in Heliocentric congiunction with Pleiades. In the other one we were opposite to Pleiades respect the Sun A little report of The three bigger solar storm ever (check personally in planetary to enjoy) 18 September 1941 : Heliocentric congiunction Pleiades-Uran-Saturn-Jupiter 10 may 1921: Heliocentric congiunction Suturn/Jupiter + Approssimative Heliogeocentric congiunction Pleiades/Mercury/Venus/Mars 01 Septermber 1859: Heliogeocentric congiunction Neptune/Sun/Mercury + heliocenric congiunction Saturn/Mars/Venus + Heliocentric congiunction (10°) Pleiades/Uranus 5 hours ago, theartist said: When has it not been moving, in our lifetimes? It is just going back to where it was, yes? I looked at that issue several months ago and conclude it is over-sensationalizing (click-bait). Evaluation of the neutron monitor data will tell one whether the magnetosphere is collapsing or not. The poles may indeed flip, over several hundred years, in a few several thousand years into the future About North Pole I can be agree with you, But if our geomagnetic filed is "erosed" it will be more easy to move it. And we have to wait what is happening to Solar Poles, we are having big signals of a deep Grand Solar Minimum. In the last years speed was increased, let's wait what will happen. But for sure Geomagnetic field is connected to this events. I woluld like to write much more...I am decripting long count mayan calendar. I am quite Sure they were able, in some way, to look Neptune and Uran... but now I am tired...:) PS. Uran is entering again in Taurus, we have to wiat short time until it will be congiuncted by Pleiades! About North Pole I can be agree with you, But if our geomagnetic filed is "erosed" it will be more easy to move it. And we have to wait what is happening to Solar Poles, we are having big signals of a deep Grand Solar Minimum. In the last years speed was increased, let's wait what will happen. But for sure Geomagnetic field is connected to this events. I woluld like to write much more...I am decripting long count mayan calendar. I am quite Sure they were able, in some way, to look Neptune and Uran... but now I am tired...:) PS. Uran is entering again in Taurus, we have to wiat short time until it will be congiuncted by Pleiades!
  16. Thank you, Michele. With regard to the 22-yr magnetic cycle of the sun, I still think the effects of other stars are outside of subject influence, or at least, of very minor influence, in consideration of the spatial (vast distances to other stars) and temporal characteristics of the subject timescale. Think of it as the sun fusion reactor process resonating at 11.x yrs, just as the earth has a Schumann resonance (the spectrograph you posted earlier). Yes; I think there is enough influence to the 22yr cycle imprinted within our own solar system. I suggested a Global, Macro and Minor influence from planetary clocking. By Global, I refer to the work of Jose (Jose, P. D. (1965) Sun's motion and sunspots. Astron. J., 70, 193)(and recently resurrected by Zharkova) that consider the Solar Inertial Moment about the Barycenter, influencing solar activity over several solar cycles. What I implied with the more granular Macro influence is what we observed in this thread, regarding how the planetary setup of the Jupiter/Saturn superior conjunction influenced solar activity over several carrington rotations. And the even more granular Micro influence is how planetary positional interrelationships can have near-term effects on solar activity (e.g., directing CME's). When has it not been moving, in our lifetimes? It is just going back to where it was, yes? I looked at that issue several months ago and conclude it is over-sensationalizing (click-bait). Evaluation of the neutron monitor data will tell one whether the magnetosphere is collapsing or not. The poles may indeed flip, over several hundred years, in a few several thousand years into the future. 🤪 I don't know too much about all of this, I admit, and there may be more to what you are saying that I'm not yet aware of. You think there is some type of Pulsar beaming going on to galactic stars? But it take hundreds of light years for the communication travel, right? Hmmm......unless it is an indirect affect, pertaining to a communication with what is happening to the set-up of the interstellar medium on the other side heliosphere boundary. (Well, we could add additional variables to the model to account for the 'unknowns'.)
  17. Question 1: North Pole is migrating faster and faster on the last 20 years increasing speed in these last 2 years (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/02/05/earths-magnetic-north-pole-has-officially-moved/amp/) It is moving, it is not my theory. Now magnetic and geografic poles are about in the same place. Its movement was truscarable until 20 yrs ago about. My theory about is that in this cosmic age we have sensible migrations of our magnetic poles each about 41.000 years. Question 2: Basical astronomy knowledge - Little preview Uranus is the only planet whose equator is nearly at a right angle to its orbit, with a tilt of 97.77 degrees It has another SkIll. Its magnetic emission is powerful than magnetic Sun immission. Each 1 hours per day Uranus open its magnetic Field. Otherwise pleiadian wind is stopped by eliocentric current. Question 3. Yes. I think Sun is influenced by other Stars of our Galaxy. We are rotating around a Galaxy Center with big gravity and emissions from the Center. It should be normal but I think that Uran and Neptune are liKe "filters". Question 4: Pluto is little, ok, but it is enough bug to influence Neptune's orbit. I think Pluto is much more protagonist in interation with what is outside of solar system much more as we think. Look at its orbit in this moment...its position is now on the same ellittica plan of other planet. For the final consideration i think that we have to look better at our solar system to find a "clock". I think that a big unknown planet doesn’t exist because its orbit would modify to much solar sistem stability. I hope to have resolved your doubt the artist...
  18. The following two tables evaluate the monthly sunspot numbers for the last seven cycles; the Solar Minimum 'Nadir' (SMN) is lined up across the board for all seven cycles. In Table 1, SC24/25 is lined up such that its SMN will fall exactly 11 years after the SC23/24 SMN. In Table 2, SC24/25 is lined up such that its SMN will fall exactly 11.25 years after the SC23/24 SMN. (Note, the data in these tables is the 13-month smoothed monthly total sunspot number found here: http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles.) Table 1. The SC24/25 is lined up such that its SMN will fall exactly 11 years after the SC23/24 SMN. Table 2. The SC24/25 is lined up such that its SMN will fall exactly 11.25 years after the SC23/24 SMN. From evaluation of the trends in each table, either scenario indicates the sunspot number at SMN for SC24/25 is eventually going to be lower than the SMN value of 2.2 for SC23/24. A shift by just 3 months dramatically affects the ratio of the previous cycle sunspot numbers to the current cycle sunspot numbers, particularly when close to the SMN.
  19. Michele, What is the physical explanation behind this theory? Are you referring to the constellation Pleiades? If so, what information suggests the electromagnetic characteristics of that collection of stars (or any others) is affecting our star's activity? Does your theory as to why it is "shutting down" have something to do with significant electromagnetic effects from other stars? If so, where is the evidence, and how could we evaluate this? Thank-you, Michele! But wouldn't Pluto's influence be just a small cog in a very large machine? To what granularity (e.g., inclusive of moons, asteroids, stars) will be required in our model to make a significant difference? Don't interpret my questions as being overly critical and discounting...afterall, there are a group of serious physicists claiming the outer orbit of a difficult to observe planetary body (with an orbit in the 10's of thousands of years) is directly responsible for our sun's spin being off-axis to the ecliptic. (I'll have to find a reference, as the details are a little fuzzy.) Here is a reference: "Curious Tilt of the Sun Traced to Undiscovered Planet".
  20. The differences between the two cycles, primarily the relative magnetic weakness in the later cycle, IS observed in the magnetrograms. Consequently, the implications on the bottoming-out of sunspot activity require careful consideration. For example, in the extreme case, if much fewer sunspots manifest in SC25 (i.e., Bright-Points in the corona occurring generally without sunspots on the photosphere) then the 'Nadir' will get pushed further out in time, just as it was with SC23, producing a long ‘delayed’ cycle. (Eventually, however, over several cycles, there is a “regression to the mean” in solar cycle length, averaging out to be ~11.x yrs.) But the quick conclusion we can draw here is that since the ‘Nadir’ has likely not passed, ’The Norwegian’ forecast on spotless days looks quite plausible.
  21. QUICK UPDATE: There is a lot of very interesting solar science stuff that can be said after actually looking at a 'scrolling magnetrogram'. I've spent several hours (and could spend days). SDO is absolutely INCREDIBLE, but one of its unfortunate limitations is that its imagery data only goes back to (roughly?) 2010; we therefore do not have SDO imagery from the last solar minimum epoch to compare with the current solar activity. (Maybe(?) there is a repository for HINODE satellite imagery, but if so, I haven't yet found a convenient online resource to get to it.) However, I stumbled upon these 'scrolling magnetrograms' yesterday, and their power lies in providing a convenient record of the previous solar minimum which we can compare alongside current activity. From my review of the 'scrolling magnetrograms' so far (hopefully some of you will analyze the data and come to similar conclusions independently), I conclude that we have not yet crossed the Solar Minimum 'Nadir' [which as you know, is the official scientifically defined "START" of the next 11-yr Schwabe sunspot cycle. The "START" of the solar cycle is NOT "onset" (per K. Strong's term, "Strong & Saba, 2009"), which typically occurs much later after Solar Minimum 'Nadir']. Since we most likely have not yet crossed the Solar Minimum 'Nadir', pinpointing its location into the future from the 'scrolling magnetrograms' is, therefore, a more difficult problem. My current (cursory) conclusion is that this cycle's Solar Minimum 'Nadir' is ~11yrs 3-4 months (i.e., ~11.25 years) after the SC23/24 Solar Minimum 'Nadir' of December 2008. (to be continued)
  22. Perhaps relevant to note that the elevated level of overall solar activity in 2003 has been associated with the "European Heat Wave - 2003" said to be the hottest since 1540. (Certainly a hot one, I was there! ) That, and the cold winters around 2010 (the "Snowmageddon" years) associated with the R-M dips in 'Ap' of those years, are discussed in my section on the subject in https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/ Fascinating when theories start to come together ! Any good with Met charts? The above are the charts from 00UT, 7th November, 2003 (heat wave year), 2010 (snowmageddon year) and 2019 (now), in that order. A wise man might see fit to invest in warm underwear for the coming winter! Extending this to the debate on SC25 might imply that the decline in activity is deeper now, and potentially to continue longer, than the SC23/24 minimum.
  23. If we observe what is happening in this period everithing seems to be connected to a really particular condition, maybe Pluton influenced to. We will have an anular Sun eclipse on 26 December and in the while or about the Sun will eclipse Jupiter and on 13 January 2020 it will eclipse Saturn. Eclipse from the Hearth of a planet by Sun means perfect helio-congiunction. In the first case we will have new moon with spectacular anular Solar eclipse (not in Italy ) and in the second one we will have full moon. Not ending on 26 december Jupiter satellite Io will be coinvolved in the congiunction in oposition respect the Sun. On 13 january Pluto will be in eliocentric congiunction with earth and saturn On 2018 Pluto has passed the ecliptic node and now will be strictly congiuncted to Saturn and quite to Jupiter. This is a topic moment for Solar system! My supposition is that we will forget Sunspots for a lot of time (maybe years) and we will start to have different wind streaming from the Sun (much more from coronal hole) and from the Universe because Cosmic Rays will find an open door to our Ionosphere. Ace docet in this moment, recording a lot of spikes. Density solar wind will be lower and lower and CME will increase in number and in power. Magnetic power of the earth will decrease and magnetic Pole will migrate faster. Cosmic rays will modify our troposhere to with C14 Carbon and they will create Ozon. If the North Pole or the South one migrate in a civilizated area there will be troubles. Possibility that a strong CME will be earth directed will be sensible increased. Jupiter and Saturn, with the rear power of Pluton (it is a X ray emitter) will be protagonist in the eliospheric current for the nex 2-3 years. But this is happening also on a normal electronical circuit when componenents are on a perfect line so I am not wondering so much. What I wonder about this topic is that accademic Astronomy seems to ignore totally this way to study what should happen with our Sun and, much more important, when. For example for the Carrington event (1 Sep 1859) we were having Uran eliocentric congiuncted to Pleiads (both have strange and powerful electromagnetic stream and peaks), in the while we have had eliocentric congiunction of Saturn/Venus/Mars and eliocentric congiunction of Neptune/Mercury with Earth around. Not a coincidence...and Uran in line with Pleiads was really interesting to analyze for a lot of scientific and not astrological raeasons. I think that connection between solar system "status" and Solar activity has to be strictly valid and studied. The Sun is magnetically "shutting down" to start with a new really long circle...we have just to understand wich one it is and how the changment will be long. Thanks the artist for your job!
  24. In this thread, I discussed the possibility of powerful solar activity 'coincidentally' arising around a Jupiter/Uranus Superior Conjunction which occurred in 2017, well into the declining phase of SC24. I now wish to present another example for consideration. In 2003, well into the declining phase of SC23, some powerful solar storms occurred around Halloween, which were so memorable to the SpaceWeatherLive team that they produced a video on them. Observe below the planetary-setup going into those storms: However, this might be just another planetary 'astro-astrology' coincidence to the solar pros, eh? 😆
  25. Wow, interesting! Spaceweatherlive produced a detailed YouTube video on the storms surrounding that event. And 'coincidentally'(?), that unusual solar activity occurred well into the declining phase of SC23, around a Jupiter/Uranus Superior Conjunction. I just discovered this 'coincidence', and consequently added it to the thread titled, "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?". Thank you for bringing this up! You might find it interesting that a 3-cycle pattern in the Ap data was discussed in the paper by Ahluwalia (1998) which n-adventurer cited over on the thread titled, "SOLAR CYCLE 25 Prediction/Forecast by SpaceWeatherLive Forum".
  26. Earlier
  27. I apologize. My analysis is taking longer than I expected, and I want to be somewhat thorough. Therefore, in order not to be rude, I'll open this up to the community, and, at the risk of their servers crashing, let you all have-at-it as well. I'm thinking that this data, together with our other findings, will be a big puzzle-piece in helping determine where the Solar Minimum (Nadir) is at. And as you might suspect, when that gets nailed down, then other dominoes will fall (and we then should be able to come up with a more confident forecast). Here it is folks, here is where I've spent the last few hours (and I think I have a ways to go): https://gong2.nso.edu/products/scaleView/view.php?configFile=configs/quickreduce.cfg To team-member, "The Norwegian", I hope you can take a look. I think you'll understand what I'm suggesting. Background Info Recently on the thread titled, "F10.7cm Solar Minimum Analysis", "The Norwegian" stated, "I bet 2019 will be one year with over 280 days without sunspots. 2020 will have not less that 265-270 spotless days ". The following graph depicts that forecast: I too have considered similar possibilities, although not as firm in conviction on the "Spotless Days" numbers, since it depends on where Solar Minimum (Nadir) falls. One possibility we have kicked around is it falling roughly 11 years (to-the-month) since the previous one, and that is depicted in the "Scenario C" graph placed earlier in that thread (repeated below): (to be continued)
  28. I’m hoping someone will help me with some research I’m working on for my internship. I’m looking for information on a few antenna types—what they’re used for, where you buy them, that kind of thing. If you’re willing to help, do you mind taking this super quick survey ? It doesn’t ask for any personal info., and you won’t be added to any mailing lists, I swear. 1. Do you use any of the following antenna types? If so, what do you use them for? · Omnidirectional 450-490 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): · Omnidirectional Collinear 806-960 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): · Directional Yagi 806-960 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): · Directional Low-Gain Yagi 806-960 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): · Multidirectional Fiberglass 806-880 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): · Whip 450-512 MHz Do you use [y/n]? Application(s): 2. Do you normally purchase these antennas from a distributor, from the manufacturer, or from someone else? 3. On a scale of 1-7, with one being unimportant and seven being very important, how would you rate the following antenna characteristics? · Capabilities · Quality · Price · Product Variety · Reviews
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