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  1. Yesterday
  2. Key point in the above statement is "monthly average" rather than the 'absolute low'; for example, witness where the the 'absolute low' of the Adjusted Flux occurred, relative to Solar Minimum, in the SC 18/19 transition: Today a new low in the Adjusted Flux was reached for the SC 24/25 transition:
  3. The F10.7cm Flux is in the process of double-dipping! This calls for an immediate slash in our forecast magnitudes. The forecast of the Sunspot Peak Range (in the first post to this thread) has been changed to reflect these events. A press conference to announce this change in the SpaceWeatherLive Forum Forecast has not been scheduled.
  4. Last week
  5. Folks, this go-around, it is not "on". Some aurora chasers might be disappointed. If interested in this topic, continue reading. The method discussed in this thread is one of the few techniques that actually allow the citizen scientists themselves to look ahead several days in advance for the possibility of an approaching geomagnetic storm. Aurora chasers, for example, could take this knowledge into account if planning a trip. The previous few months has presented an opportunity during solar minimum where the solar wind, unencumbered by flare activity, has presented a highly repeatable pattern, first revealed in IMPACT, and then ~6.5 days later in ACE. (The planetary positions will likely also factor into the repeatability, and for the past few months, we have not had transit interaction from Mercury or other apparent planetary effects which could potentially cause disruption. Obviously, there is a lot more that could be discussed regarding the subtleties of using this technique.) Readers following this blog are aware of the persistent solar structure that has repeatedly created geomagnetic disturbance over the past few months. But the solar wind velocity dropped off on the last rotation, as well as the magnetic strength of the influence. We discussed this earlier in this thread. And now, the return of the 'persistent magnetic structure' is upon us. Have things changed over this solar rotation? If so, how? Suffice to say, "it" is not "on" this time. Yes there is a minor disturbance coming on ~Oct. 24, per IMPACT, but so far it is revealed this disturbance will only be a shell of its former self. The pertinent data is presented below. Do you see it? BTW, as before, again this time we have a smaller event to look forward to, prior to the real action. The smaller event occurred on Oct 15 at IMPACT, so we first expect a minor disturbance on ~Oct. 21-22. Now obviously, this point is being directed at folks hoping for a big dip down into the mid-latitudes, and doesn't apply to those that live way up in Norway, or other very high latitudes where aurora are frequent even without significant geomagnetic disturbance.
  6. Did you read the thread titled, Evolution of a "Stealthy CME"? If you apply that theory to the stealthy CME(s) on Oct 13-15 beyond the west limb, you may glean insight that grad students and post-docs are trying to figure out.
  7. Excellent, touching upon a hot topic boiling underneath the surface of this little corner on the internet! 😎 Thank you for your post, and I hope it is not your last! Now to check your dates in jsOrrery. 🙂
  8. I think both of you were getting the gist of what I think is going on, which is some magnetic reconnection effects causing inward (downward) flow of plasma on the outer regions of denser streamer formation, plasma that was previously at escape velocities outward. Coupled with the expected temperatures (probably at least 1 million K), and the apparent constant velocity of the flow (it didn't seem to be significantly accelerating inward), it is less likely due strictly to gravitation; it just looks atypical, counterintuitive, and something I had never noticed before in the C2 coronagraph. A longer link of video clip (i.e., plus/minus one day centered around the event) is required to properly observe the phenomena in context, so that is why I was pointing the reader to the SOHO link so they can create their own higher-resolution video for observation. Cheers. Another point I wish to make is that here was a case where we actually get to see the inward flow of matter in the solar wind, but could it possibly be happening significantly, even though rarely observed optically? Maybe the reverse flow of matter is significant enough to affect the surface flow of the photosphere plasma, and this is an out-of-the-box idea related to the one Hannes Alfvén was offering for an explanation of its apparent differential rotation.
  9. As a hobby, I study the effect the planets have on the sun, that causes sunspots. In the period between 26 October and 5 November we will be able to get some sunspots. This will be the last sunspots in 2019. It should indicate that 2019 will end up with between 278 and 283 days without sunspots. We might even get sunspots in the period belonging to SC25. However, as I said, its just an hobby so I might of course be wrong! RAB.
  10. This reminds me of other astrophysical effects. Pulsars have phenomena where some electrons and positrons confined by magnetic fields at lower latitudes flow out one side via the current sheet and eventually return back to the pulsar. That flow, aside from the gamma ray emissions that escape to space, return back and strike the pulsar. I believe this is both inside and outside the light cylinder. This is the generation mechanism of pulsar wind that leads to nebulae around pulsars such as Vela. ill have to locate the paper when I get home, it’s also a lecture on YouTube at Cornell IIRC.
  11. The videos has caused our monthly bill to rise to more than double. Gif’s are also relatively big in size and can further Increase the monthly billing. We disabled videos because of the increase in costs. We want to keep most of the features free to use so we have to take measures. apart from that... as you could see in the gif, there was some ejecta leaving the sun resulting in the magnetic field lines to open up into space and probably reconnect a bit later. But still the sun has magnetic field lines that are open into the interplanetary space and that gap in corona may look more dark when seen from that point of view. Just a guess
  12. Marcel, consider how many solar radii out the 'reverse flows' are. (BTW, videos, rather than GIFS, are much better in resolution quality and much easier to upload, and allow viewers to start/stop, and they actually are not much different in total memory size, so please consider allowing the upload of videos as in the past, yes?) Also Marcel, although we have seen CME material collapse, have you ever seen this phenomena before in the coronagraph imagery, what appears like 'reverse flow' back against the outflowing solar wind? Marcel, thanks for prodding me to dig further; I just came upon this reference, which may provide an answer, and they admit inbound waves are not something commonly observed: INBOUND WAVES IN THE SOLAR CORONA: A DIRECT INDICATOR OF ALFVÉN SURFACE LOCATION.
  13. Just some plasma that tried to escape but got caught by the Sun's gravity causing it to stream back to the solar surface?
  14. Please kindly answer me, dear reader (should you choose): Do you see the phenomenon I'm trying to point out in the following animation? Have you ever seen that before? What is your explanation for it? The phenomena occurs in the last half of the above animation. It gives the appearance of a 'reverse flow' running back toward the sun. In order to see it better, one can look at the animation directly at SOHO Movie Theater, inputting the time coordinates for the morning of 2019-10-10. Do the following two images, from the reference to the Hannes Alfvén paper provided in this thread, suggest what is going on?
  15. H. Alfvén had a theory: "If an ion cloud invades the magnetic field of the sun, a considerable part of the rotational moment of the sun can be transferred to the cloud within a reasonable length of time. ... The fact that the sun does rotate more slowly at high latitudes may indicate that a process of this kind is going on... "If an electrically conducting magnetized body rotates, electrically charged particles in its environment will have a tendency to take part in the rotation. "If a number of charged particles, e.g., an ion cloud, is initially at rest in the neighborhood of the body, a system of currents is produced which accelerates the particles and retards the rotation of the body, thus equalizing their angular velocities. ...this effect may be of importance in solar rotation." Source: "Remarks on the Rotation of a Magnetized Sphere with Application to Solar Radiation" (PDF).
  16. I believe there may have been a stealth CME last night. Looks like it’s relaxed again, most of the active regions shifted to coronal holes. Very weird.
  17. Earlier
  18. In order to 'double dip', the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux will need to sustain daily values in the 65-66 range (or lower), as that is what was observed in Nov. 2018 when the current low for this solar minimum transition was established: It appeared the currently 'bald sun' was going to relax back to those '66 levels' a couple of days ago at the end of 10-10-19; and yet, the next day there was almost a 2-point pop back up into the 68's: Could yesterday's bump be attributable to something we can observe over at SDO/helioviewer.org? For example, was it due to the polar jets and a large prominence that danced on the NE limb for a day (figure below)? If so, even without sunspots, are the polar crown filaments/prominences too numerous now, such that we will not see the 'double dip' in the F10.7cm? It is hard to say...for were we not previously seeing similar activity (figure below) on the solar disc back during the time period when the low in the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux was established?
  19. (Source of graph: NWU Space Research Neutron Monitors) (to be continued)
  20. I wish to try and clarify the above statement. The title of that poster (below), was "Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles": Additionally, the poster (below) with very similar content [including the statement, "the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with the error estimate ~15%"] was published on December 13, 2018 [for American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2018; December 10, 2018 - December 14, 2018; Washington, DC; United States], titled, "Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles": From the figure (repeated below) above the "Conclusions" in both of those posters, it indicates their SC25 prediction was based on data up to 2017.5: The more recent paper previously cited in this thread titled, Solar Activity Forecast for the Next Decade, given at a presentation on June 09, 2019, [stating, "the mean hemispheric sunspot number at the maximum will be about 50 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with an error estimate of ~15%"], from which I took the SC25 forecast parameters, was quite likely using updated data. That forecast of "about 50" is also found in the following two more recently published posters: Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles published June 30, 2019 [for IAU Symposium 354: Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations; June 30, 2019 - July 06, 2019; Copiapo; Chile] Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter published August 05, 2019 [for Solar Heliospheric Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) Workshop; August 05, 2019 - August 09, 2019; Boulder, CO; United States].
  21. Before updating this thread with current 'cosmic ray' data, here are a couple of key slides from that video I posted a few months ago:
  22. Guys, thank you for responding, because it may have been the further impetus I needed to look into her forecast further. After reviewing her presentation again, I don't think she mentions the black lines. Based on her paper from 2008, those black lines (may) represent what they call a "reference solution", which is just one step in the model's production of an eventual forecast, which apparently is both the high fidelity jagged red lines in the top slide, and the smoothed red line in the bottom slide. She states they predicted SC24 pretty well in 2008, and their model may be able to look-ahead eight years into the future, and possibly longer. I have a lot more respect for her forecast now, and she may come out looking like a genius by the time SC25 is over.😊
  23. Looks like she got 24 pretty close. Maybe she made some theoretical updates over the years and never updated the old 23 data?
  24. That’s a good observation and indeed true, I assume they don’t explain why their model is a bit off in earlier cycles. So we can take that 25th cycle prediction as a bit off course as well...
  25. This morning I revisited the 'Kitiashvili/NASA Forecast', and something caught my eye. Below are a couple of slides from her presentation: If the black line (in the above slides) is her model's prediction, doesn't it significantly undershoot the strength of SC23?
  26. Reading the description you linked, it says: The objective of the mission is to perform close-up, high-resolution studies of the Sun and its inner heliosphere. The new understanding will help answer these questions: How and where do the solar wind plasma and magnetic field originate in the corona? How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability? How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere? How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? The figure I linked showing the polar X-ray jets was from a paper highlighting the use of the Hinode satellite to answer those questions, too.🤓 This solar minimum is turning out to be deeper than what I initially thought it was (based on my observation of the Bremen Composite months ago). The Lyman-Alpha Composite has not been at its current levels--for such a sustained period of time--since its inception. If this minimum 'double dips', in order that the 'Adjusted Flux rule' (I cited earlier in this thread 😊) is not violated, then we very well may be headed into a very weak solar cycle, at the NASA/Kitiashvili prediction levels (which is discussed in the thread titled, Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 1. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA).
  27. Ahh yes that’s definitely it. It was quite large in size, at least 4 🌎. I find the polar regions of the sun very interesting, been wondering if there’s some vortex structure like Saturn (amongst some other issues). Too bad we won’t find out until the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter arrives at the higher latitudes in 2026. After the dynamics that showed up at Jupiter’s poles when the first Juno pics started flowing back, I think anything could be possible. I wonder if we will still be in solar minimum then? 😎
  28. Hmmm....maybe you were seeing polar X-ray jets? These are described in the following: (source)
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