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  2. Those are some good things to consider. I would like to know where one can find periodic or real-time measurements of the temperatures in the thermosphere, they would be helpful in my own research. I was also under the impression that a marginal increase in Total Solar Irradiance would mean an increase in UV and EUV light. While the surface will see fewer UV rays due to the reflectivity of cloud tops and total ozone coverage, there are still technically more of them directed at Earth in the absence of sunspots and coronal holes. The difficulty of accurate weather forecasting varies based on where you live. In locations east of the Mediterranean, for instance, forecasts have historically lacked accuracy outside of a two-day period. For where I live, in the mountainous parts of Northern Arizona, the only accurate weather forecast elements are preceded by obvious and large-scale upper-level storm developments off the Pacific coast; local precipitation and rain-/snow-fall totals vary wildly from the forecast amount. Just a few days ago, a quarter inch of rain was supposed to fall here, and what actually took place was close to 4" of rain over the course of 24 hours and 1" of snow after that. Indeed, computer models need a bit of "help" I guess you could say. In mountainous areas, for instance, the physics of the lower atmosphere and its interaction with the terrain need to be considered, and these physics are not very well understood - at least, the methods to measure the necessary elements are not quite mature enough to lead to consistently accurate forecasts.
  3. With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out? (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe ) could also indicate an increase in albedo as well. We also have the following going on right now: * Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans). Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure. * An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere. * Close to record levels of Cosmic rays. — If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects. So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum.
  4. Fundamentally, the draw of moisture into the upper atmosphere occurs more vigorously when both SSTs and the atmosphere itself is warmer than it does when it is cooler. Precipitation itself does occur when the factors of Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture(SLIM) come together and while the resultant storms are cool in nature, it is not correct to say that they are caused by a cooler atmosphere. The cooler atmosphere interacts with a warmer atmosphere to give the SLIM factors in greater magnitude depending on how much exchange of cool, dry air from the polar region or extratropics occurs with the warm, moist air of the subtropics. The article you linked corroborates this in sayings that Total Solar Irradiance increases a very small amount during solar minimum and thus the SSTs are able to increase to higher-than-average levels, lending credence to the idea that a warmer atmosphere is the cause of larger-scale precipitous events. In effect, a warmer atmosphere drives warm, moist air toward the north in greater speed and volume than a cooler atmosphere, as there is a greater difference between the climate zones and thus more instability and shear. The phenomenon of cooling along the fronts is secondary to the phenomenon of the formation and persistence of the atmospheric rivers which drives them. It is not a mere shift in the jetstream, but instead the function of atmospheric moisture driven by the Coriolis Effect which will bring you subtropical and extratropical jets of moisture, and it can be enhanced by a weak polar vortex(when the jets near the poles relax and the cool, dry air tends to migrate south in fronts.)
  5. Yesterday
  6. Whilst it is true to say that warmer air holds more moisture that does not necessarily mean that more precipitation is due to a warmer atmosphere. Precipitation will always arise when warm moist air is forced to cool. In this instance the U.K. is seeing a higher than average precipitation due to a shift in the jet stream. Warm, moisture laden, air is being drawn up from near the equator and is coming up against a series of cold fronts. As a result there is high level of precipitation in a narrow band covering the U.K. In addition NASA indicate that there is some correlation of rainfall in certain areas with the number of sunspots https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/ In answer to the original question, I can see no evidence that we are entering a second Wolf Minimum at this time.
  7. I hope that people will open eyes about real sciences in general. Science is often and probably corrupted by power. Italy is under attack by disknowledge about a Virus who is called like the Solar Corona. I know what is happening and I will defend my nation from people who do disinformation with real information. I have references in my research that and I am not forced to put them here. This is a forum about Universe...This is not a Scientific pubblicatIon site. If you do not believe what I write you can make your research and destroy my hypothesis. Asking to delete this topix is like to try to put a stop at my words that respect everyone and my idea. I have not disrespected Anyone...There is nothing to close. Knowledge is knowledge. If you do not believe what I write find something to destroy my hypothesis and I will be happy to modify my idea and to learn something new.
  8. Last week
  9. I hope this discussion gets closed or something. I can't take the underhanded disrespect being directed at myself and others.
  10. Wow. A neurologist that knows electricity! We could speak about a lot of topics because I Have a big theory about multiple sclerosis, electromagnetic fields and Herpes zoster...but in other topics! I write here because I think that herpes zoster is influenced by solar radiance but this is just a my idea and I do not want to open any discussion...Freedom is that everyone can believe everithing, but Truth is only one. But should be interesting to watch how varicella epidemy move during solar minimum. Sorry if you feel me hard with my words. The bad discussion just borned because I did not put bibliography about correlation between solar radiance and cosmic rays radiance on hearth surface but this connection, as I Said, is verified and it was asked to me several time just to put my words in a nebula of confusion. Also University of California is making a lot of study about cosmic rays with cosmic ballons establishing that they are increasing in percentage during absence of solar fare by solar holes. For other theories I have garphs that could change view of interations between planet in solar system. It is under eyes of everyone but nobody watch or nobody writes about. What have I to write? Ok. I think I know some secret of Universe because I decifrated them. You can believe or not, this is not going to influence my life. Some secrets are beautiful and dangerous, like when Einstein discovered how to use power of light and power of materia and world Fall in scare by nuclear bombs... If it has to be my knowledge will be for a Bright future of humanity and not to find a way to built plasma Guns. From two years I also have collected data from here (.http://sosrff.tsu.ru/) I have screenshots of event that does not have a world Public database. I have seen when last April graphics were changed to obscure the truth about an incredible and strong signal coming to us during a moment where ecliptic plane of our galaxy center where inli e with us. I have seen and I have the two Picture of the same day because that graphics were changed but in a bad way and with the refreshing of the Page the real one was shown. Something special is happening now at our solar system, I feel it and I collect scientific data that maybe no one is observing and connecting. Perhaps writing in English difficults topics is difficult for me. I am italian and I can use much more words and my way to write to be understanded... Big Signals are arriving maybe from the Galaxy Center. You can see peaks also on graphics today in the linnk. It is the Green one of 2 days ago. I cannot put my external Pictures here or everithing should be easier for me to explain.. I do not want to be bad with my words...but I do not have time to explain Basic knowledge...sorry
  11. This has been a difficult series of posts. At times Michele's syntax is difficulty to unravel. The thoughts come from many directions and the connecting threads often are not apparent. I'm not an astrophysicist, just a simple neurologist with a background in electrical engineering and a MA in English Literature... looking to comprehend and explore the universe around me. I am more than willing to acknowledge my limitations. Despite these difficulties, I have strained to follow these posts and unravel the content. I have failed to find value here, except Christopher S's openness and generous willingness to engage in an honest dialogue. Wishing all god speed and "A Roaring Borealis." --ejd
  12. Thanks, to everyone very much for suggestions (^v^)
  13. Indeed. As soon as the NOAA SWPC issues a geomagnetic storm ALERT we process it and send it out our own alerts on Twitter and the app as soon as our system has handled the request. Watches and warnings are not something we process but can still be consulted here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings Alerts for solar flares, proton storms, CME impacts, coronal holes and radio blackouts are handled in a different way and are based on algorithms we developed ourselves. Thank you for the comprehensive post Christopher. No I do not think they issue any sort of report where they compare what they had in their forecast and what actually occurred.
  14. I'll point out that I don't need mathematical proof of claims, just a logical basis for them. If you know something that I don't, instead of leveraging it to "win" in a needless argument, please educate me about it. Nobody curious about the universe should take what they read at face value, right? Also, the discussion isn't about knowledge, at least not on my part. I wish to understand things, especially things other people might be more educated about. There is an unnecessary personal barrier between my understanding of what this person is telling me, and that person showing me some substance of basis that would bring me to such an understanding. The scientific community is explicitly not political. It is fundamentally scientific. Science is science, and science knows what it's about. In order to present ideas that are irrefutable and completely free of speculation, it is often necessary to explain the basis for such ideas. That isn't possible with Michele, as she has resorted to disrespectful posts, which unfortunately you call "brave and assertive." Clearly, there is nothing constructive to discuss when the scientific substance of discussion is discarded and then replaced with blatantly arrogant attacks. If it is truly offensive to you that I disbelieve what you are telling me, and you see my questioning as "political", then let's just not have discourse. Don't come at me like I'm talking down to you or anybody here - act fairly and respectfully, and show some civility for crying out loud.
  15. Michelle, I’ve been in conversation for many years with people that believe they know everything because science says it. If it weren’t for the great thinkers thinking outside the box we would not know half of what we think we know in the science community. I have seen claims both on your end and Christopher’s end and both are based on speculation of what we think we know. Knowledge is always evolving. Unfortunately the scientific community is political and there seems to be a not going against the grain until you can mathematically prove a claim. Even then, it’s all up for discussion. Never should a discussion of knowledge get to a point of cutting each other’s intellect and that’s exactly what happens when dealing with certain personalities in the science community. The experience is disheartening when trying to hold an intellectual conversation. Keep thinking outside the box as you know what you know and do not need another’s approval. I appreciate everyone’s insight on this forum and believe if people were nicer to each other even with a difference of opinion it opens up great dialogue to learn more. In order to be a good teacher you have to be a student also. A lot of times these personalities do not want to learn anything new. They stick with the peer political groups and regurgitate the old ways of thinking which again is disheartening but until people like you prove them wrong it’s the same ole same ole conversations of prove it with citations. Many scientific papers written a decade ago have evolved so I don’t see the need in citing when knowledge evolves with man and with time. Just wanted to say again I appreciate your thinking. I’m not looking for any discourse as the Universe is far more magical than a narrow mind can understand. We can clearly observe the archetypal world is a language of its own within the symbolism of patterns from the cosmos. Meaning we all speak the same language but we have yet to understand the meanings. Until then, it’s a language of circle jerks. Kindness goes along way when trying to understand one another and how we perceive the light of the cosmos and so one last time I say to you thank you for being brave and assertive with your position. ✌🏼 ❤️
  16. But what do you want to know sorry? There is a Scientific evidence that low solar magnetism increase cosmic rays arriving on our ionosphere...What have I to explain? How an electromagnetic field works and what is a proton?
  17. Thanks, to everyone very much for suggestions (^v^)
  18. A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second: 1. The above average precipitation owes to a warming atmosphere, not a cooling atmosphere. Convection occurs over oceanic temperature anomalies, most energetic at the ITCZ, and seasonally(for the Northern, Western Hemisphere) in the areas around Hadley Cells or in fronts associated with a strong polar vortex. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, its capacity for carrying moisture also increases. This website uses reliable sources and lays it all out for you: https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase 2. You are connecting an incorrect observation of the trend in the climate(in that it is cooling, whereas in reality, it is warming) with solar cycles. If you wish to have an accurate interpretation of the relationship between solar cycles and climate on Earth, you must first correct your understanding of the climate as it is today. 3. The amount of light that is absorbed by the planet increases more with deglaciation(thus reduction of albedo, AKA the amount of sunlight that is reflected away from the surfaces) than it does with the fluctuation of solar UV rays during solar cycles. This is due to the simple fact that the more light which is absorbed by the planet results in a more rapid heating of the surface. 4. The ability for the Gulf Stream(the atmospheric current which is described in the first post above) to reach Western Europe is a direct result of two things: Higher moisture content in the atmosphere(which we should all agree is due to climate change trending towards warming), and a weak polar vortex(the jet stream which revolves around the north pole at varying latitudes.) 5. There has been no observed correlation between the above described weather phenomena, and volcanic eruptions; what you are arbitrarily describing as a "very large eruption" can not be inferred from meteorological data, as these meteorological factors are not uncommon. 6. The topic is about a type of solar minimum, where by definition the Sun's magnetic field undergoes a reversal of the north and south poles, and during this time, few sunspots are observed. If you would like to see the Sun in the spectrum of light where it would be most relevant to the subject matter you are presenting, look at PROBA and perhaps a history of PROBA-2 imagery to interpret the magnitude of UV rays emitted visually: This looks about the same as it has for several months, and I reckon looking back further than that, you would not see a significant increase in the magnitude of UV rays as seen from this instrument. In short, a solar "wolf minimum" does not equate to devastation around the globe. If you can find absolute and scientifically sound causality, please share it. I would absolutely like to see it.
  19. It is unfortunate that you have retreated to your earlier stance of attacking the knowledge of people refuting the basis of claims you have made, and that you no longer wish to have a constructive conversation.
  20. You are absolutely right, I had quite a brain fart and misinterpreted the page I was looking at. This is especially embarrassing as I had just done a good bit of reading about the history of the GOES satellites, so I should have realized that "primary" and "secondary" indicates the difference between GOES-16 and GOES-17, where typically the GOES-West products and instruments are backups of the GOES-East products and instruments(for redundancy). Thank you for pointing this out, Marcel.
  21. I will try to answer your questions in a series: 1. Yes, the SWPC alerts on this website come directly from the SWPC's website. 2. The forecast is a prediction of what conditions SWPC expects. These are amended by warnings that may or may not have been predicted by SWPC's models or observations. Warnings are issued regardless of the forecast if the event being forewarned is of potential danger to satellites. 3. The alert condition represents a concurring event, which may or may not have a predicted termination phase. That is to say, unless the Space Weather Message specifies a "Valid from:" and "Valid to:" period, it is still a valid alert. 4. There is not necessarily a value to aurora watching or scientific research merely by cataloging certain alert statuses, however, I believe you can look at the history of SWPC alerts and warnings on this very website. There are no summaries or reports in a simplified format at this time which describe the substance of the warnings or alerts; again, these are Space Weather products which are more useful for satellite operators or communication administrations, rather than researchers or aurora watchers. The Space Environment Monitor of GOES-15, however, may be useful if you are attempting to build a foundation for your own research material: SEM G-15
  22. Referring to following report, CONTINUED ALERT is contained, I would like to know on whether it is already stop or not at this moment. If this event is finished, where to find this report. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^) Tuesday, 11 February 2020 13:33 UTC Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 3020 Issue Time: 2020 Feb 11 1333 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3019 Begin Time: 2020 Feb 08 1335 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6022 pfu NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
  23. Following reports seem more informative, since it reports what issues are actually occurred, and what next issues would occur. Do spaceweatherlive data come from swpc.noaa? Friday, 21 February 2020 12:59 UTC Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 3022 Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 1259 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3021 Begin Time: 2020 Feb 20 1625 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2790 pfu NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. 01:19 UTC Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2149 Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0119 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings Comparing with following report, it only report on what would occur without confirming what was actually occurred. NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Feb - 24 Feb Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast I would like to know on whether swpc.noaa has any similar report on what event is actually occurred or not. Do you have any suggestions? Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)
  24. Look in here, ... https://www.google.com/search?channel=tus2&q=aa+solar+graph+historical&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs7vf7--PnAhUJ7J4KHWFKA3sQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=1770&bih=979#imgrc=9oVCDhpI3s1xDM Looks like the ARs will continue to cross the UK and Ireland for a bit longer, ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-1.25,53.55,827/loc=-7.796,53.548 There have been well above average rains/snow all around the globe over this winter. That is the sign of a cooling atmosphere, imo into the mid 2030s. In recent years I have come to wonder if a GM is nothing more than a Gleissberg causing/coinciding with a very large eruption. The temp record clearly shows cooling around every 110 years approximately.
  25. Finalised official Kp index archive is available at GFZ Potsdam: https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/
  26. Compare your quoted alert (#3713) and the next one (#2149). Yours (#3713) is just an expectation warning (“WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected”), with a first posting status (“Warning Condition: Onset”)—if it is a continued alert, it would be “Warning Condition: Persistence”. The second one (#2149) is an actual alert of the condition actually being reached (“Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC”).
  27. Sorry but correlation of increasing of cosmic rays and a weak solar cycle are much more than evident for scientific community. At what level I have to explain sorry? You did not know what was a cosmic ray...Sorry you do not have scientific basis to understand and I am in difficult tu explain here please http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi What about Sun Moon and Hwrth rotating period? Do not you see the Beauty? Let study Universe if you want to know as I did and please answer in a Scientific way and notsayin false. It is Incredible that you want sources but you do not know anything deep about magnetism of Planets. I cannot explain everithing if bases are missing. Our electromagnetic field stops cosmic rays wit the Sun one. I have never sayd that cosmic rays are dangerous for life but they changes life at DNA level in a way that is still not well studied. Deposit of rest of cosmic rays in the padt was big in low magnetism period during inversion or deflection of electro-magnetic field. Our electromagnetic field is created by Sun to..I do not want to write a statement on THis. Everyone in this fields knows that solar wind and cosmic rays percentage on hearth are correlated. I think that this noise that you are making is just to destroy real theories that you do not know should be Public. No problem my friend, i take my knowledge for me (for now) and you have to know that ssually when electromagnetic field crack deep each 41000 years a supervulcano explodes and the most interested one at moment should be yellowstone with its 650k years of rithm. I am bored to reply you because I am supposition that you don't want to leave something but just to make noise. What you reply has no scientific sense, you do not know that cosmic rays and solar magnetism are connected and this is real Incredible because you are surfing on this specific site to find information. You just attack what is scientifically accepted from time...Cosmic rays are able to dissolve ice because on Poles they Fall down to ground much more and they make the troposhere hotter and they should be reAlly energetic. You do not have any scientific knowledge about this, I do not Understand what you want that I write. Your is noise, mine is Science...sorry Neandhertal man start to disappear 40k years ago after a inversion of poles and contemporary explosion of Campi flegrei Caldera. Human specie rise estinction on a supervulcano event occourred in Indonesia about 80k of years ago during a Pole inversion wich is probably connected to Solar magnetic Silence and to other factor of Universe generated probably by congiunction of planet. I do not want that you believe my knowledge, I found this source at an exexpositionposition in Milan. From the event of 80k of years ago just 16 human families survived and it is proved by genetic study on Mithocondrial Dna. I am tried to write...When I write here I think that elementar things are known... THE Artist..where are you? It were nice to share knowledge with you
  28. The primary images you are referring to are from GOES-16. We have the GOES-16 images (primary) already on the website, have had them since we made the GOES page. In fact, these GOES-16 images are used everywhere where GOES images are featured. The GOES-17 images are only used on the GOES page. GOES-17 is not officially operational yet so its no wonder these aren't updated but we still wanted to feature them on the GOES page in case they get updated again in the future. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-images/goes
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