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  2. This article says nothing about the danger of the cosmic rays emitted, or correlation to a weak solar cycle. Moreover, you originally posted that comment as a reply to the original topic, which itself was more or less an attempt at fearmongering without scientific basis. It also does not state that it was the largest we have seen in history, or really any timeframe. There is significant difference between a cultural effect of astronomical events, and a measurable, detrimental effect on life on Earth. One is a piece of a cultures history, and the other is a life changing, extinction-level event. Take note of the original post and topic of this thread we are commenting in, as what you are saying does not align with what that person was saying. Ultimately, there is very likely no danger in our lifetimes of any such events, and thus, we should focus more on imperative, known issues on the planet, rather than dreaming of some otherwordly source of gloom and doom.
  3. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gum_Nebula This Supernova was maybe one of the biggest of recent Human age, for sure the biggest in last 41k of years Now cosmic rays reaching hearth are getting on a record, and we receive only the space noiseground...immagine if a Supernova near us explodes! Extra reading https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.huffingtonpost.it/amp/2017/04/24/la-fine-del-mondo-ce-gia-stata-la-scoperta-dei-ricercatori-del_a_22053221/
  4. Referring to following link, I would like to know on how to confirm coming Geomagnetic storm based on kp index forecast as shown below: For 27 day outlook, Kp index reaches 3 level on Kp Index, but maximum 2 is only show on 3-hourly Kp index forecast. # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2020 Feb 21 71 5 2 2020 Feb 22 71 10 3 2020 Feb 23 71 8 3 NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Feb - 23 Feb Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2 Does anyone have any suggestions on how to read those forecast data? Thanks in advance for any suggestions https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast
  5. I would like to know on where to find historical data for kp index. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks in advance for any suggestions
  6. We will replace it with the Hobart magnetometer. If anybody has a better suggestion for a southern hemisphere magnetometer please feel free to post in this thread and we will investigate the suggestion. Thanks.
  7. Ok. I understand you...you are right. I will insert sources but I need time because I have written everithing with my pencil on my agenda and it is a big job to find everithing but I would like to say that if you made the right research you will find by yourself that it will be easy. This is Science also...to be stimulated to find a new view. At the end you cannot study correctly DNA without a big knowledge in Fisic and Chemestry so I hope I am asking in you with these simple words about what are my fields of knowledge. Dna built proteins in the same geometric way in wich the Sun flow around Galaxy Center with a specific proportion which is created by Jupiter Gravity and from gravity forces from other Planets in minor way and from other galaxies around here in a little way. Everything is connected But Universities teach division. I am graduated, i know how University works... I have studied elettronics and Agronomy...in Italy is requested to be able in all the scientific subjects to do it in a deep way. Universe is a big connection of elettromagnetical fields and gravital forces...like a cell where the Center, the Dna, follow basically the rue of Universe and for this reason is a Universal language. I am saying that when Finally researcher will find fossil life on Mars dept we will find the same dna structure that has possibility to code also here on hearth. A few days ago was discovered a new Virus with unknown dna but with the same language of our. From where it is from? I know evolution and in this case I think that it Came from space because Virus does not need to breath and when they are off they are liKe minerals Usually protection by a strong capsid that cab easly resist to a intergalactic travel in the Hearth of comets. This is the most probably explanation but scientific community will never allow it. In this case the scientific subject of probability will be not taken in consideration. So I will explain everithing as you are asking to me and I will do but I need time. Enjoy Universe and sorry if sometimes my words should seems hard but I was attacked for my knowledge without possibility to ask something to me in a positive way. Are you agree? I did not found curiosity in Novitiate message... Basically I have not necessity to share secrets of Universe but I would like to give you a little Pull that is under the eyes of everyone one and that nobody see: Moon and Sun coronal surface rotates on itselves in the same time? Coincidence? The Earth core of the Sun rotates in 7 days, a week, it was Discovered by Sumerians who intented 7 days week after Egiptian strange calendars. The pulsing centre of the Sun is now visibile in its nature because Solar activity Smack down. If you observe Goes 16 graphics you will notice that it Signal Pulse in 24 hours. Circadian biological ritm follow this patterns. You can check everithing by yourselves just on Wikipedia and here. I think that Basical research from our planet is really important and we do not need othere Planets where to live. We can just Save this beautiful place because in Italy we know what is Beauty and biodiversity and I hope you will Came to live one year here...later my words will be more Clear for you. Write you soon, sorry for language mistakes Its time to open our eyes. There are to much coincidence and if you are patente I can explain everithing with sources...Perhaps I am a doctor, I know the scientific world but I know also how a simple subject like Agronomy was complicated by scientific world just to create a business with Chemestry. .. Are you sure that scientific community want that everyone know the real truth? Are we sure that scientific community is directed to the truth by their respective leader? Are we sure that Scientific community is not directed to business? Me not. So I ask to who want to listen to open eyes about what is really our world now and what we are now livving. For example The world is on alarm for a cold and does not see that problem is pm 2.5 pollution health damage (i can prove also this but is off topic - Wuhan has one of the biggest pollution problem in the world and the Virus destroys the same cells damaged by pm2.5 Has a Scientific doctor sayid this? No...why?) Write you soon... Thanks for reading
  8. You are right this needs to be addressed. We added it to our to-do list. Thanks.
  9. Hello all. For a few months now, I have noticed that the primary Magnetogram for the southern hemisphere that Spaceweatherlive uses is no longer transmitting data. While I do not have an explanation for this, I have went to the source website and found the same thing. Would you please find a replacement source to use in generally the same region for Australian aurora watchers? While the front page's "hemispheric power" graph and "auroral oval" can be helpful to indicate potential aurora activity, the Magnetograms shown on this website currently only provide information for the Northern Hemisphere. Thank you!
  10. Indeed, everyone is entitled to their own thoughts and ideas. How we convey them must always be at least somewhat coherent, but most importantly, respectful of others. I admit I am surprised, pleasantly of course, that this website has been allowed by the administrators to act as a community-driven source of forum and education for all things even remotely space-related. I would ask that, even if we may all see things differently at times, that the atmosphere of such discussions remains open, clean, and mature, so others feel invited in to give new, unique ideas, or simply to ask questions. Preserving the foundation of an open, educational platform on the internet where all questions are welcome(although, answers may be difficult to come by when unrelated to space weather) and all people regardless of nation are free to think and believe what they will is my own goal, which runs parallel to SWL's goal of providing live, free access to information for all who are curious. If you haven't yet, donate a small amount to aid in the maintenance of this website and development of the mobile apps, to help show appreciation for the hard work that has brought together(albeit in small portions) the aurora watching community, the seismic monitoring community, and a community of people whom generally practice alternative approaches in their research. We are all benefiting, directly or indirectly, from those who access and use this website, and mainly from the generous people who created it and welcomed us in.
  11. Michele, he does make a fair point: You have not provided any evidence for claims, and lots of what you are saying outside of your field of expertise can only be surmised as idle speculation without scientific basis. Many people in the scientific community long for a discussion and exchange of ideas rooted in mathematical facts, and are not offending to the accepted and working theories of astrophysics or physics in general. It is difficult to have a fair conversation with you without giving you the benefit of doubt and then inheriting your burden of proof to move the conversation forward. To find it offensive that a person does not believe you isn't a fault of that person, it is a fault of your scientific argument in lacking any educational value. You cannot simply claim that you know something everyone else doesn't, and expect everyone to understand the meaning of your claims. I have indeed been patient and through my own virtues have allowed our narrative to continue without many bumps in the road. I've explained how things work in relation to the subject matter, using knowledge that as been in the public domain for several years. These are things any average person can research online using accredited, competent sources(particularly from scholarly articles, many of which are already cited throughout the scientific rabbit holes on wikipedia), but you must assume that any person reading your claims has not yet made the effort to research and understand the basis for what you're trying to tell them. It is not necessarily that people disagree with your views, instead, it is that your views seem to come without precedent or cohesive language to convey them. For instance, you make the claim that all is required of a person to comprehend and solve matters in the universe is to study genetics; I wholeheartedly disagree. The kinds of advanced calculus and theorems which allow humanity to create instruments that measure many aspects of outer space, travel in spacefaring vehicles, and moreover develop those vehicles to be safely delivered to and travel within the "vacuum" of radioactive space and then back to Earth intact all come from specialized fields of study which have next to nothing to do with the genetic history of fauna and flora on planet Earth. Instead, it is the natural curiosity of a person regardless of their specific field of study that allows them to continue asking questions and looking for answers about the universe, and this curiosity blooms most within the scientifically literate. These are not simple concepts that can be understood without questioning the basis for any given answers, and even if you may have a talent for understanding science in general, you must use citations and working theories to explain an idea. That is true of all fields of science, and simply, you have not done that at all. Your claims rest entirely on the idea that you think you know something others don't, and that knowledgeable people will come to corroborate evidence at your behest. To attack the intelligence of those who do not understand the subject matter for which you are attempting to make new claims of, is entirely contrary to the spirit of making such claims in the first place. Are you trying to help the community by providing information or ideas, or are you trying to shame everyone who does not see certain aspects of the universe in the same way that you do? Nobody is attempting to start a sour discussion with you - from the beginning, I asked for you to cite a source for a claim and you absolutely ignored it. Now, I'm a nice guy, but even I can see that you do not wish to have a fair conversation and exchange of ideas, as Novitiate pointed out. Please, nobody is asking you to write a bibliography; people are asking you to make at least some effort to show your work, so it can be incorporated into other people's understanding of the universe. There is no value in using science to boost your own self-image; science exists to help humanity understand and communicate how the universe works. So, help us understand what you are trying to say.
  12. The amount of energy that would be necessary to manipulate the weather to any meaningful end would be not to cause storms but rather to prevent them, and would necessitate the combined power grids of every city on the planet to even make a dent in the current climate patterns. It would not be to cause storms because these happen frequently enough. If you honestly believe that rain in the UK is to anyone's advantage, or is in anyway a "change" from the norm, then I ask that you review annual rainfall totals for the UK throughout history. You'll have to find the proper channels yourself, as I believe they restrict foreign access to weather agency websites(I know Australia and others do). Geoengineering is not frugal in the UK. There isn't any great source of power or materials in your country to harvest. As a matter of fact, the political consensus in the UK is to block geoengineering efforts, as these have been shown to contribute to greenhouse gas emissions negatively. Disposal of old explosives is common across the world. Here in Arizona, there is a long forgotten area of rugged terrain that was once used to test WW2 bombs and mines which a brush fire found its way to last year, and the best thing to have done was let the fire burn away the brush and possibly detonate some of these naturally. The explosives in question are very small scale, and hardly impact the ecosystem on any meaningful scale. Nobody complained.
  13. However (from my previous comments), I've heard some strange enormous explosions in my city and also some have been heard in towns not far from me and the government claimed they were just old WW2 bombs being disposed of yet this was when the atmosphere started changing and the constant storms began. i'm starting to believe its geoengineering, weather being manipulated for political power. Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyxmrwbTKoM&feature=youtu.be&list=PLwfFtDFZDpwutYOt4Ds-626kTMX3gDcuD
  14. Hello goldminor. Thanks for your comment. Of course we have our opinion on alternative space weather science but this forum is open for everyone and their ideas even if we don't always agree with them. That is what message boards are all about. Sparking discussions and coming up with new ideas or information. We live in a free world and this forum is open to everyone as long as everybody sticks to our house rules. As said, we have seen the past few months that many people who find the SpaceWeatherLive forums are in facts people who are interested and want to discuss alternative scientific topics and if people want to use this forum to discuss their ideas than that is no problem. We just want to emphasize that promoting alternative space weather science is not one of the goals of this website. But that doesn't mean we are going to forbid these topics. Everyone is welcome here as long as the atmosphere on these message boards remain civil and polite.
  15. Hello Novitiate, I see that you like to start hard. I am not only a Plant genetist...I have studied in my life a lot of Subjects. I want to answer you because your Low astronomic knowledge does not permit to you to understand what its written in my message. Please, before to reply you have to study better and you will understand that everithing its written in my message is provable. I am not doing a pubblicatIon and I have no time to put bibliogrqphy here. I think that people who has knowledge undesrtand, others like you write your kind of messages. What do you want sorry? What problem do you have with my words? If you are not agree with my scientific view please reply at that one if you knowledge is enough or please, do not put me in a position in wich I have to write you this kind of response. Now I would like to see if you will be able to destroying my "peregrination". For example do you know how is complicated Dna? Do you know that he takes a form similar to the spyral that Sun design during iys Running in the Universe? Do you know anything about the Golden section? A nice biologist has to be first af all a Good astronomy... When you have studied DNA all other subjects are easy because it is a Universal language where you can Read, in its shadows, the Beauty of Universe. Perhaps I have never talked about human estinction but I Said about human changings but last glaciation, 120 00 years ago, ended with a Supernova and if you make a research on internet you will find. Nobody will say to you this, you have to interpolazione data, if you are able, but at that time exploded the bigger Supernova of Human recent time. Have a nice day
  16. Last week
  17. Thanks for the decision to allow for "Other" ideas to have a place. I made my first comment on this site under the quake/solar blog. One of those first comments by me was that I would have never commented here otherwise out of respect for the real work which you do on this site. I did have something to say about quakes and potential influences from cyclical processes of the sun. I also have been connecting the dots between a perceived correlation between solar cycles, hemispheric sunspot excess, and changes in the ENSO regions. For the first time I believe that I have finally found the connection between solar influences, and temperature shifts in the ENSO regions. I intend to prove my thoughts as correct this year by correctly forecasting shifts in the ENSO 3.4 region mainly, around 4 to 6 months before the temp shift occurs.
  18. Christopher S. You have been remarkably patient and restrained. Michele has made numerous assertions of access to specialized scientific knowledge beyond the strength of being a plant biologist. Yet there is little or no actual data provided behind the astrophysical hypotheses, and certainly no literature citations. The rambling peregrinations of thought, in fact, lack any unifying internal cohesiveness. This is just to note that your kindness and willingness to exchange honestly is quite remarkable and most admirable. --The Novitiate
  19. I've just played around with a type of space simulator called "Universe Sandbox" and both confirmed the calculation for the arrival of charged particles(9,000-13,000 years, depending on several factors) and, essentially, the supernova of Betelgeuse would mean, with absolute certainty, a premature end to life on Earth as we know it. We would be caught in the nebula within that time-frame and thus suffer bombardment of many types of particles at a staggering rate. While the cosmic rays will come immediately after the supernova, they are not quite as bad in comparison. Premature in the sense that our Sun is not expected to die for another 5 billion years or so. When we talk about our eventual extinction, should we fail to escape the Solar System with advanced technology that would allow us to somehow outrun the resulting nebula from Betelgeuse within the next ~100,000 years, our priorities should shift to ensuring our space programs receive adequate funding. Additionally, and probably most important of all, the educational systems around the world need to be updated, repaired, and streamlined to allow society to understand the importance and value of being well-educated and aware of the imperative duties which will ensure our survival in the long run. As I stated before, the most pressing matter to discuss, educate, and act upon is the climate change trend towards warming. Should this trend occur for too long, many species of varying life forms will go extinct, coastal cities will be lost, and the climate will become more extreme, giving us more frequent and more powerful hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, tornadoes/twisters, hailstorms, rain events which cause severe inland flooding(rivers, lakes), snow and freeze events, and an indefinitely rapid alteration of terrain across the planet below certain elevations. The idea of a runaway greenhouse effect and doom of the planet is not a matter which will happen any time soon, but all of the issues I just listed can happen and, most important of all, are indeed presently happening.
  20. "Other" seems alright with me. Synonymous with "Off-Topic" and "General"
  21. All right, sorry if I was a little bit hard with my words but in this period its seems to be difficult to be listened by people when you are saying something True But that sounds different from the normal way to think. I am studying a lot the topic and I found interesting connection with an event in the past occorre on 10.500 b.C. interesting a big Supernova explosion. Altough I have never talked about a catastroph But only about a Human changing that should also be positive . I am a Plant genetist and I know deeply how Cosmic Rays reach with Dna. Perhaps at the moment cosmic rays are not directly landing on our planet But they "explode" and come to ground as several Muons. Just one cosmic ray each century is directly falling down on 1 Km^2. I have a my own video of an event with lightnin without thounder make during Jupiter heliocongiunction with hearth last June. In that case I think that radiation from center of the Galaxy was deviated by a moon of Jupiter and was coming on our planet. The heliocongiunction was perfectly in direction of SGR*A, our center Galaxy. I think I have some discovering that also NASA maybe should not have or would not say... I have a lot of study, graphics, explanation...Buy i am sure that if Betelgeuse collapse quantity of cosmic rays arriving on hearth will increase suddenly. I do not think they are dangerous for life Buy for sure they make changings to Dna. I think that that factor rH in Blood was selected by Cosmic rays action 40.000 years ago during a several deflection of our magnetic field. Cosmic rays are able to "cut" dna, perfectly what happened with rH factor genes... For example what I think about the event of 10.500 b.C is that it generated the Universal diluve because antartis ice struggled suddenly. Changing should be positive if Humanity is harmonic and in this case I think that only the real knowledge about happenings should prepare Humanity for a positive changing. Thanks for answering. Enjoy Universe
  22. I apologize for that, Michele. I tend to be critical of people who are using buzzwords that they might have heard from media sources, but in this case, you are absolutely right. An uneducated person might say "cosmic rays" just because it sounds mystical and dangerous, but you are describing the phenomenon accurately. I will still maintain that the cosmic rays, and other slower ejecta from a potential supernova ~700 light years away is not necessarily of great danger to life here on Earth. It would necessitate a coincidence with two rare factors: A weak heliospheric current, and a great diminishing of Earth's geomagnetic field. As previously stated, the reversal of the poles does not mean the geomagnetic field will disappear, as it is indefinitely generated by the core of the planet. As for the heliospheric current during a weak solar cycle, coronal holes are the primary generator of solar wind which aids in deflection/interception of cosmic rays. Both a large gap in the solar wind current, and a substantial weakening of the geomagnetic field would have to be simultaneously occurring at the arrival of the cosmic rays for life on Earth to be affected substantially. I shouldn't have to tell you that this is extremely unlikely to be the case. I also shouldn't have to tell you that the likelihood of Betelgeuse collapsing within our lifetimes is also extremely unlikely. Extinction events in the past that are believed to be due to cosmic rays involved supernovae in much closer proximity than Betelgeuse. While the star is very large in size, it is not actually a supermassive star - it is only 11 Solar masses, in fact. The potential risk of its eventual collapse causing devastation is diminished by this fact. Another fact to consider: cosmic rays account for less than half of the average radiation exposure experienced by people on Earth. The proportion increases with altitude, especially for pilots and people who travel by airplane very often.(Note that this data comes from studies pre-dating the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster, meaning that radiation exposure from cosmic rays accounts for even less of our total exposure.)
  23. According to these calculations the earth/sun distance at perihelion has reduced several thousand kilometres since 2017 as a result of variations in Earth's elliptical orbit around the Sun. I make no assertion as to it's effect on the Sun's brightness. http://astropixels.com/ephemeris/perap2001.html Jim
  24. Sorry but you have to educate yourself about topic. What I say is scientific: Cosmic rays are 90% maden by protons and not by photons and they reach about the speed of light. I do not know what are you talking about. I am a Scientific doctor, a teacher, and I know the Subject and I think that you know what is a Cosmic ray before to reply. If you watch data now we are reaching a record in cosmic radiation reaching magnetosphere of hearth because Solar is under minimum and heliosphere has low power. Cosmic radiation arriving now is normal background "noise" of Universe. When a Supernova is on a lot of new cosmic rays are ejected into Universe. Usually the Sun has enugh power to stop them but in this moment an eventual explosion of Betelgeuse for sure will penetrate deeply heliosphere. Perhaps the Star is really close to us. I study Astronomy from a life, if you ask to a topic you have to know what is a cosmic ray and what is Astronomy. Anycase I do not know if Betelgeuse will explode...Buy if it will, trust in me, everything will change. Maybe its Bright is going increasing...we have to wait. Trust in me, what I have Discovered is really big but I will never put it on a topic on internet because there are people like you that are not able to reply but they do it anyway. What I am talking about now is just the top of the iceberg. But I do not care that you believe. The world is going on scare for a virus and people do not see that basically Wuhan has just a big problem with pm2.5 which coplicates Viral disease. Please, before saying to me that I have to study you have to whatch what is a cosmic ray. Please...
  25. You need to educate yourself about the difference between photons moving at light speed and protons that move at a very small percentage of light speed. All of your speculation is based purely on the idea that a darkening of this star, which in its lifetime is not rare since it fluctuates in brightness, indicates imminent collapse. If you review my comment earlier, you will understand that your fear of "humanity changing" is unfounded and illogical. You also ignored my request to state the basis for the claim here:
  26. Cosmic rays goes quite at light speed and they are generated in big quantità during Supernova explosion. I have talked only obout them and they're ejected everywhere from the Star. Scentific community was not getting Ready for this big light decreasing of Betelgeuse so cannot stimate when the Star will collapse. I have not sayd that Antartis is influenced by Betelgeuse but in this moment it is taking a lot of cosmic rays and in South America exists a magnetic hole that has connection with the event. What I write is scientific and I Can prove. You just need to study the Subject and do not mix different things or the topic should be confused. Nebula of Supernova is different from cosmic radiatIon. Cosmic rays have a mass, they are Protons, and when a Star like Betelgeuse collapses it produces heavy cosmic rays. Usally they are deviated from heliosphere but in this moment it doesn’t have enough power to stop them. I am quite sure that Betelgeuse is going to evolve in Supernova because it decreased 36% of Bright in one year and this should not be Common but we have to wait after 22 february for further information because the Star will conclude the pulsing cycle and it should increase its light power. In case It will continue to lose Bright maybe it will collapse in this year because a Star like it cannot disappear in the sky without a big show. I hope i have answered. Thanks
  27. I would be interested to study the information you are using as a basis for your hypothesis, here. Particularly, this part: It is important to note the distance, rotational inclination, and positional angle of Betelgeuse to our Solar System; from Wikipedia: "the rotational axis [has] an inclination of about 20° to the direction of Earth, and [has] a position angle from Celestial North of about 55°." This would put the supergiant star well above the rotational plane of our Solar System, and the rotational axis of the supergiant star determines the plane of a potential supernova does not intersect with the plane of our Solar System and heliosphere. It is also ~700 light years away from our Solar System, a distance which the resulting nebula and radiation cannot pose a hazard. If one observes the average radius of nebulae, they will able to determine the limits of charged, radioactive particle ejection following the collapse of a star or stars. These ejections move at less than 5% of the speed of light, meaning we would be able to calculate the time of arrival of a resulting shock from a supernova. If it takes light ~700 years to reach Earth from Betelgeuse, then imagine how long it would take radiation to reach us at 3% of that speed. If my amateur calculations are correct, it would take between roughly 9,000 to 13,000 of years to feel any manifestation of such an event. Based on the estimated angle of rotation and distance, such a shock will not directly reach our Solar System, anyways; it may merely brush up against the heliosphere and the bulk of ejecta will travel away from us. Moreover, it would not influence the Celestial South, but instead, the Celestial North - In other words, Antarctica is not even in line-of-sight of this supergiant. Finally, the scientific community - specifically astrophysicists - do not believe the star will explode any time soon. It will occur within the next 100,000 years or so. Pop culture and mainstream media sources are exaggerated for viewership of their content, and have no concrete basis for the prediction of imminent supernova; this is called "sensationalism" and in literature is known as "hyperbole," owing to the fact that the idea of said content is eye-catching and emotionally moving to those who are illiterate and ignorant of the actual science and substance of these circumstances.
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