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  2. I wonder if this will increase the odds for seeing a very strong quake or greater right around that time. The New Moon is on the 26th of Dec, and that is one of the positions where you will find a larger number of 5+ quakes occurring.
  3. From the unusual perspective, a short cycle would fit in well with what I suspect happens to the West Coast flood cycle as it is driven by the solar cycle. I now see that it ranges from 9 years exactly, 10 years exactly, and 11 to not quite 12 years at times. Examples of 9 year floods were the 1950s/60s, followed by 11+ years 1970s into 1990s, and lastly back to 10 year exact since 1996/97. But the only way that this can work is if the sun has the occasional short cycle to reset the pattern. Otherwise the West Coast flood pattern would melt away into just another chaotic weather pattern.
  4. Today
  5. Good stuff; I was assembling thoughts today regarding the energy balance of our 'solar fusion reactor'. Its energy output in the form of mass is far far exceeded by the energy in the form of electromagnetic radiant energy, but the former is far more consequential to space weather.
  6. Yesterday
  7. I can't help but notice the unusual beginning to the OMNI graph. I approach all of this from the perspective of "What drives the climate system?". Reading graphs my mind sees cycles within the patterns shown on decent high res graphs. Five years back I became good enough to start making some successful forecasts/predictions. A key part to this is placement of where the shift points of the short pattern trends occur as well as the shift points for longer cyclic events such as a Gleissberg or GSM. So to my mind it ended up like this starting from 1885/86 to 1915/16 = cool trend, 1915/16 to 1946/47 = warm trend, 1946/47 to 1976/77 = cool trend, 1976/77 to 2006/07 = warm trend, and of course next up is a cool trend, but note that the beginning stages of a cool trend can readily be hidden when the previous warm trend was above average in extent. Nature is mostly always gradual as it shifts signs warm to cool. Back to your OMNI graph though. The beginning of the graph is obviously some anomalous event. What is causing that? The Oulo monitor also shows an unusual pattern between 1971 through 1978 where the gcr count moves sideways across that entire period. That period of time is also the shift point from a cool trend to the next warm trend. Back in those years in early 1970s I was looking forward to witnessing the next great West Coast flood. The previous two struck in 1964/65 and in 1955/56. I had heard that some scientists thought this was a 9 year cyclic trend which would have placed the next flood in 1973/74, but that does not happen. Now I think that this was in part due to what happens when a trend shifts from one state to the next, and that the clues as to why lie in the unusual readings on your graph as well as the unusual readings seen on the Oulo Monitor. Currently, my ongoing prediction for the next Pacific Northwest flood cycle is for the winter of 2026/27 based off of the last 3 flood winters of 2016/16, 2006/07 and 1996/97. This has implications for the ENSO regions and the state of the sun because as you can see from the flood years listed that they all occur within the window of a solar minimum, and the ENSO regions in all cases were negative. This imo, gives a direct clue as to where the next minimum will begin along with an approximation of the ending of the minimum.
  8. Thanks Michele. You know, the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction that astronomer [Johannes Hevelius [Hewelke] (1611–1687)] would have observed during the Maunder Minimum was, like today, a time when Pluto was near the ecliptic, except it was on the opposite side of the sun back then.🤓 (source).
  9. The 'change' I was referring to can for now be considered minor and subtle, something observed in the GONG quick-look magnetograms; after mentioning it to you here, I posted about it over in this thread titled, "Like 'tuning a radio'...." You might wish to check that thread out, wherein I point out an upcoming planetary alignment. The X-ray sensor on GOES-16 is much more sensitive than GOES-15. There is a website news article on it here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/399/20191209-welcome-goes-16 . You can compare GOES 15 with the new GOES 16 at this link: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux-dynamic-plot Even though the GOES 16 sensors are more sensitive, nonetheless, it seems counterintuitive that the Longer wave X-ray sensor would be registering a lower intensity than the Shorter over the past couple of days, but that may be due to a loss of absolute accuracy when the magnitudes are in such low ranges. There is additional discussion on the new GOES-16 X-ray readings over in the "Questions" forum, here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1617-new-goes-16-readings/
  10. However, in further consideration of the last figure I annotated above (the one with four dotted lines), it does give the impression that those lines could indeed be circumscribing large convective cells within the sun. In either case, it is the nature of the sun's very quiescent state in this deep solar minimum that is providing the opportunity to observe such phenomena.
  11. Thanks. Interesting. But something is changed. I am sure but I have not time to investigate deeply...:( Agree with you Ok. GOES 16 is different but... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/it/attivita-solare/flares-solari Did you look Goes 15?
  12. To add to the helioseismology mysteries, here is another more recent release from Frank Hill at the NSO (this time in a blog post rather than in a press release): Do we see a dawn of solar cycle 25? Does anyone see some 'contradiction' (if not confusion) in what the authors are implying in this NSO article. They are suggesting the chart indicates that Oct 2019 for SC25 is temporally equivalent to Jan 2009 for SC24, and Jun 1997 for SC23. Keep in mind that a large photospheric magnetic structure producing sunspots appeared above 40deg latitude in Nov 2008*; whereas, we have not yet seen for SC25 a significant photospheric magnet structure above 32deg latitude (producing sunspots or not). Does it make one wonder whether an unspoken take-away from this article is that we indeed may continue to see SC25 dipolar magnetic structures, although they may not necessarily produce much sunspot activity beyond 'pores'?🤔😲 The article ends with the statement, "and now, it seems, we see the first sunspots of this cycle", but never mind that the first SC25 spots were seen a long time ago (was it in 2016?). *(More on this is found in the threads titled, "Synoptic Magnetograms; SC24 Minimum Forecasting" and "Solar Cycle 25 Forecasting".)
  13. On my "to do" list is to come back here and explain what I mean by difference(s). When comparing cycles on the magnetic butterfly diagram (below), it is important to be aware of those differences (in appearance) between Cycle 24 (which was taken with HMI) and the cycles before it: (source of magnetic butterfly diagram).
  14. Last week
  15. A 'change' happened; you can see this consequent change in the most recent synoptic magnetogram: Figure 1. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface, at practically all latitudes. Think of the 'aggregate of activity' highlighted in Figure 1 as a large 'torsional oscillation' within the solar plasma, indicating the resonant-oscillator cavity is being tuned up...but for what, or how? Is the Quality Factor of the resonant-oscillator cavity proceeding to rise in conjunction with the following planetary setup to occur around Dec. 28, 2019?: Figure 2. Is the 'solar radio' and adjoining electromagnetic cavity resonator getting tuned in accordance with the above setup? So is the 'planetary setup', presented above in Figure 2, offering opportunity for the sun to display a (significant-in-size) photospheric magnetic structure above the critical 32deg latitude? Stay 'tuned' to find out, and welcome to the new era of heliospheric forecasting.😁
  16. Hi Michele. There has been a change (which I have not discussed yet...and would like to see more confirmation). But it has happened, so far, without a large photospheric magnetic structure above the 32deg latitude. And as you know, there are not sunspots without large-enough photospheric magnetic structures. So play the 'what-if' scenarios....we DID have a quick precipitous plunge in the latter half of 2019, so maybe we will have a quick bounce-back. If so, that would suggest a cycle 25 larger than cycle 24, unless...... I hope you did not come to that conclusion by assuming the new GOES 16 values are comparable to the previous GOES 15 values. No, even if April turns out to be the minimum, then that means there are sunspots forming out beyond April in order to make April the minimum. If there were no sunspots for several months, then the minimum point will just be prolonged out further in time.
  17. I believe we entered Solar minimum. Look at Sun activity...is going to be come zero. X rays fallen down in quantity. If it will be long until April next solar cycle sould will not have sunspots letting the world enter in a little cold age time. Enjoy analyisis
  18. Welcome to the forum, goldminor. So are these lines of bright points associated with some underlying phenomenon, or a chance random occurrence? Maybe some statements from Strong et. al (1992) provide some ideas: (source) "Plasma waves"!🤓😁 I'm leaning to the possibility that the genesis of this transitory phenomenon, at least in this case, is on this side of the photosphere (i.e., in the atmosphere), with signatures consequently induced on the photosphere, rather than due to large cells underneath the surface; that is to say, a magnetic inversion line of plasma 'shear' in the solar 'atmosphere' is inducing the BP's.
  19. Very interesting, but isn't there a second line of interest? It looks to me as if there is a second similar pattern which starts on the left side of those pics, and then angles down at approximately 45 degrees towards the south. I note that it is apparent in the STEREO A pics of the east limb.
  20. Thanks for you clarifying the details. I remember looking at 2752 on the SDO Magnetogram and searching for it on the Intensitygram-Colored, even at 4096 pixels, not really seeing a spot. It is likely best to side with the SILSO call... though my gut sides with SWPC. Thanks again --ejd
  21. So now at this deep minimum point in the current solar cycle, the development of spatially large global magnetic fields enables the development of very large prominences before they are sloughed off, unlike more chaotic magnetic periods when active photospheric magnetic structures on the disk break up the large fields, thus not allowing such large prominences to grow. So just in the past 48 hours, one can see the increased activity of these very large prominences being released from the sun. In the images below, I point out some examples of what to look for, but I recommend going over to SDO to watch the 48 hour movies to really enjoy the show.
  22. I just noticed that the linked article I provided for the (2) 'press conference' of 2011 does not mention a 'press conference'. But my research did find other articles on the topic in which there evidently was an official media release and 'press conference', like the following link: https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/is-the-sunspot-cycle-about-to-stop/ "In a press conference Tuesday morning (June 14th) they predicted that the current solar Cycle 24, which began about three years ago, will produce only half as many spots as the previous one. And, said Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory, Cycle 25 "may not actually happen." "At the press conference, the researchers explained the three suspicious signs." The 'media release' may have since been removed from the net, but with some research, one can still find it, which reads as follows: Contacts: Dave Dooling NSO Education and Public Outreach +1 575-434-7015 (office); +1 575-921-8736 (cell) dooling@nso.edu Craig DeForest AAS/SPD Press Officer +1 303-641-5679 (cell) deforest@boulder.swri.edu Text & Images (after the embargo expires): http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release (Media teleconference information at bottom of this release.) WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN? MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all. The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/ “This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.” Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715. Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24. “We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.” In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot. Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface. Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program at NSO’s Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO’s 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot. “A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.” Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward. “In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case.” All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while. “If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.” # # # Media teleconference information: This release is the subject of a media teleconference at the current meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s Solar Physics Division (AAS/SPD). The telecon will be held at 11 a.m. MDT (17:00 UTC) on Tuesday, 14 June. Bona fide journalists are invited to attend the teleconference and should send an e-mail to the AAS/SPD press officer, Craig DeForest, at deforest@boulder.swri.edu, with the subject heading “SPD: SOLAR MEDIA TELECON”, before 16:00 UTC. You will receive dial-in information before the telecon. These results have been presented at the current meeting of the AAS/SPD. Citations: 16.10: “Large-Scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum -- Where Is Cycle 25?” by Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P. Larson, J. Schou & M. J. Thompson. 17.21: “A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor” by W. C. Livingston, M. Penn & L. Svalgard. 18.04: “Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona” by R. C. Altrock.
  23. If you compare it with GOES15 it looks like that, but compare it with GOES 14 and older it's 30% higher. But what is 30% in 0.00000001 watts / m-2 SWPC hasn't discontinued their warehouse archive of finalized data, it was never mentioned that would be the case. Update: on SWL we'll switch our archiver to the new file format of SWPC. If all goes well, from tomorrow on we'll be using the GOES16 data in the archive.
  24. Nice, timely article. However, from the article, look at the timescales being talked about in order to enact perceptible change, "Our Sun may exit the Local Cloud, also called the Local Fluff, during the next 10,000 years. " As I expect, the article implies real-world effects will require glacial-scale time-periods in order to discern any effects upon our star, and any significant perturbations that would have an effect on our star, in shorter human-lifetime-scale epochs, should (probably) be large enough to be recognized up by our satellite sensors. I would not mind taking a look at it, so you can post the link here, or private message me if you wish to limit outside traffic to it. ------------------------------- ------------------- ------------------------------- TAG, I'm not sure how many years you have been at your research, and how long it has included investigating solar effects, so you may or not be aware of what may be a critical puzzle piece of background info. Evidently, there were a couple of press conferences by some helioseismologists, one in 2009, and one in 2011, pertaining to the things you are pointing out in your 'stitched-together' graph. (1) The first press conference was assembled to provide an explanation for why the sunspots were delayed in showing up at the start of Cycle 24. Here are some details: "Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved? June 17, 2009: ...At an American Astronomical Society press conference today in Boulder, Colorado, researchers announced that a jet stream deep inside the sun is migrating slower than usual through the star's interior, giving rise to the current lack of sunspots." https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/17jun_jetstream (2) The later press conference in 2011 was assembled to announce that, based on further helioseismology studies in concert with other observations, there may not even be a Solar Cycle 25: "Major Drop in Solar Activity Predicted... Press Release From: National Solar Observatory. Posted: Tuesday, June 14, 2011...As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all." "This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation." http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=33826
  25. But what about the different “Long”/“Short”relativity?: If “Long” is more/greater/higher than “Short” for GOES-15, shouldn’t “Long” be more/greater/higher than “Short” for GOES-16, too, although the spread may be a bit different? Also, they (SWPC) say “The GOES-16 & 17 XRS data values will read about 30% higher than older GOES satellite measurements...”: If you look at the values, aren’t they actually less than the GOES-15 values? Isn’t it because they set up new pages (in JSON no less! P=) ?: --Old: ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/lists/xray/ --New: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/primary/ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/secondary/
  26. This certainly does reinforce the idea that something very different is happening; North and South seem to be unusually far out of step, perhaps increasingly so since around 2002/3. The peaks of SC24 differing significantly and now apparently a very different bottoming. Will South stay zeroed until North achieves that bottom level or do its own thing? If it does stay flat, that could give us the long, extended minimum that has been predicted. I took the liberty of stitching together the two parts of your chart to get an overall visual impression of the data. Added to your ideas, one can see that higher latitude activity seems much reduced and more diffuse SC24 compared to SC23, again reinforcing the idea of possible dynamo related activity reducing overall turbulence. Combining these two concepts, plus the changes we have already discussed, should imply a change of base-line state – but that is pure speculation. Can I take this opportunity of wishing Seasons Greetings to all, and very best wishes for the New Year and indeed, the New Decade !
  27. On Novembert 13th there was a new region number assigned to a very shirt lived spot. SWPC didn't count it as a sunspot that was visible at midnight local time. SILSO of the SIDC did count it as a day with a tiny speckle on the sun. The official numbers should be from SILSO as they are the official source of the sunspot number. Probably, because of the time difference between the recording of SILSO and SWPC, the tiny speckle wasn't visible anymore and thus by that instance not counted.
  28. Sun Burn

    Spotless Days

    As of today 12/11/19, another website lists the number of consecutive spotless days as 28, with 268 spotless days in the year. Are there other entities - Gov & Scientific, that count spotless days another way? Why the discrepancy? Is there some debate on what a sunspot is?
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