The map below shows the estimated position of the auroral oval in the next 30 minutes based on solar wind data from ACE. Locations at least 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) away from the oval will have a chance to see aurora towards the horizon. Note that this is a computer model which doesn’t take into account your local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location. Use this model as a guide.
The Kp-index is a global auroral activity indicator on a scale from 0 to 9. You can use it as a guide to estimate how active the aurora is and at what latitude aurora might be visible. This graph is based on the USAF Wing Kp-index. The latest observed Kp-value comes from the most recently available magnetometer measurements and the currently predicted Kp-value is an estimate of what the Kp-index might be right now based on data from ACE.
Below you will find the latest solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data covering the past two hours as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. These parameters are the first parameters used to predict auroral activity. The redder the plots get, the better it is for auroral activity! With the current speed, it will take the solar wind 65 minutes to propagate from DSCOVR to Earth.
This magnetogram gives you the values measured by the ground station of Kiruna (Sweden, Europa). For European middle latitude auroral activity the deflection in the magnetometer data should be more than 1300nT. If you are not located in Europe, please consult a magnetometer near your location for a more accurate representation of the current geomagnetic activity.
The Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index is a measure of geomagnetic activity used to assess the severity of geomagnetic storms. It is expressed in nanoTeslas and is based on the average value of the horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field measured at four near-equatorial geomagnetic observatories. It measures the growth and recovery of the ring current in the Earth's magnetosphere. The lower these values get, the more energy is stored in Earth's magnetosphere.
The Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) particle instrument on the ACE satellite measures the low energy electrons and protons carried with the solar wind. This is a very useful tool to find out if a CME could be Earth-directed and when it might arrive.
This plot shows us the amount of high energy solar protons at Earth as measured by GOES-15. It can indicate if there was a significant eruption on the Sun. These high energy protons can also cause all kind of problems here at Earth. Press "help" for more information.
|Predicted Kp max||2|
|M-class solar flare||1%|
|X-class solar flare||1%|
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|Last geomagnetic storm:||2016/10/16||Kp5 (G1)|
|Number of spotless days in 2016:||22|
|Last spotless day:||2016/10/01|