Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2024 Apr 26 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity was at moderate levels with three M-class X-ray events (R1-Minor) observed. Region 3638 (S18, L=231) produced an M1.0 at 25/1321 UTC and an M1.3 flare at 25/1712 UTC, the strongest flare of the period, as it rotated around the WSW limb. Region 3645 (S08W84, Dai/beta) produced an M1.0 flare at 25/0149 UTC. The region decayed in overall area and magnetic complexity as it approached the W limb. Region 3654 (S08E06, Eai/beta-gamma) grew in size, spot count, and complexity this period. Overall decay was noted within the active region cluster in the SW. New Region 3659 (S13E34, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period. All remaining regions were quiet and little changed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Prévisions

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over 26-27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). On 28 Apr, solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels as numerous active regions depart the visible and near disk.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period reaching a max reading of 1,670 pfu at 251050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 26-27 Apr declining to normal to moderate levels on 28 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 26-27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component was mostly northward through the period. Solar wind speeds weakly varied between +3 to -4 nT. Solar wind speed varied between a high of near 335 km/s early to a low of about 290 km/s late. The phi angle was variable.

Prévisions

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 26-28 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Prévisions

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 26-28 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for minor (G1) geomagnetic storm periods exists over 26-27 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.