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Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report braught to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the comming days. This page is daily updated arround midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 21/1148Z from Region 1422 (N15W24). This region continues to be the largest group on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. ACE data has shown a steady decline in solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next 36 hours. An increase to unsettled levels is expected mid-day on 23 February and continuing through 24 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb

  Class M    10/10/10
  Class X    01/01/01
  Proton      01/01/01
  PCAF        green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       21 Feb 103
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb

  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         01/10/15
        Minor storm          01/01/05
        Major-severe storm  01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         15/20/15
        Minor storm          10/20/20
        Major-severe storm  01/10/20