A strong M5 class Solar Flare occurred in region 1745 and was accompanied by a bright, partially Earth directed, CME and a moderate S2 class space radiation storm. Solar wind data is not reliable due to the space radiation storm. Read our update in the forum! More info

Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report braught to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the comming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 22/1332Z from Region 1745 (N13W80). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 500 km/s at 22/0442Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu at 22/2035Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 722 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (23 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
  Class M     50/50/50
  Class X     20/20/20
  Proton      99/99/70
  PCAF        RED
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 133
  Predicted    23 May-25 May 125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        22 May 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  009/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  012/012-007/015-012/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         30/15/30
        Minor storm                    10/05/15
        Major-severe storm             01/01/05
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         15/15/15
        Minor storm                    30/25/25
        Major-severe storm             40/25/45
There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
In the past two hours there was a small solar flare with a class of:
C1.79
S2 Space radiation storm
At the moment there is a moderate S2 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 25 times in one solar cycle.

Auroral activity

Live
High latitude (78% chance)
Middle latitude (4% chance)
Low latitude (4% chance)
Today
Minor
Severe
High latitude
30%
40%
Middle latitude
10%
1%

Latest forummessages

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

Anyone wants to see if there are chances for an auroral display so our site gets lots of traffic. But with higher traffic comes higher server costs. Support our project so we can keep the website online!

Raised: 40%

Flattr this

Latest news

15:42 May 22 2013
Moderate S2 Space radiation storm - This happens around 25 times in a solar cycle
05:42 May 20 2013
Moderately strong M1.77 solar flare
22:36 May 19 2013
Weak CME impact
Currently we see the effects of the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 79.26 km/sec to 455.5 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 455.5 km/sec and density 0.4 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 13.4 nT - Bz 3.2 nT

Aurora alertmail

I want to:
Subscribe
Unsubscribe
E-mail adress:

What is Aurora alert?

Links

More links...

Social networks

Available languages

Not your language? Help us translate!

Back to top