Viewing archive of Sunday, 01 July 2012Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 01 2240 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03)
produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any
significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17)
continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New
Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated
major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady
at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT
throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm
periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04
July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 133
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/15
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|24h plot of the strength of the IMF
There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm outlook
The observed Kp index is 4.33 but the predicted K-indice of 5.00 indicates that a stronger storm might occur at this moment.
On this moment there is a high solar wind speed (654.9 km/sec.)
High latitude (79% chance)
Middle latitude (2% chance)
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|Weak CME impact
Currently we see the effects of the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 60.71 km/sec to 531.5 km/sec.
- Solar wind speed: 531.5 km/sec and density 4.4 p/cm3
- IMF Bt (strength): 9.5 nT - Bz -3.8 nT
|Weak S1 class Space radiation storm - This happens around 50 times in a solar cycle
|Weak CME impact
Currently we see the effects of the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 107.28 km/sec to 558.2 km/sec.
- Solar wind speed: 558.2 km/sec and density 9.1 p/cm3
- IMF Bt (strength): 15.4 nT - Bz -14.4 nT