Viewing archive of Sunday, 01 July 2012

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 01 2240 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2012 ::::::::::Corrected Copy::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03) produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17) continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04 July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
  Class M     55/55/55
  Class X     05/05/05
  Proton      01/01/01
  PCAF        Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 133
  Predicted    02 Jul-04 Jul  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  021/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  016/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         25/25/10
        Minor storm                    10/10/01
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         15/15/15
        Minor storm                    30/30/20
        Major-severe storm             35/35/15
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With the short archive you can view 24h plots of the latest 14 days of solar data. When aquiring the data it could take a while before the plot will be shown. Data available until 14 days ago.
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There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm outlook
The observed Kp index is 4.33 but the predicted K-indice of 5.00 indicates that a stronger storm might occur at this moment.
On this moment there is a high solar wind speed (654.9 km/sec.)

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