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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512 (S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but showed little change during the period. This region produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
  Class M     30/30/30
  Class X     01/01/01
  Proton      01/01/01
  PCAF        Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jun 120
  Predicted    29 Jun-01 Jul  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jun  007/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         15/25/25
        Minor storm                    05/10/10
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         20/15/15
        Minor storm                    25/30/30
        Major-severe storm             20/40/35
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There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
The maximum x-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C3.55

Auroral activity

Live
High latitude (59% chance)
Middle latitude (0% chance)
Low latitude (0% chance)
Today
Minor
Severe
High latitude
20%
15%
Middle latitude
1%
1%

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