Active Region 1748 remains a magnetically complex region and more M-class solar flares are possible. We also take a look at the Coronal Mass Ejection from the M3.2 solar flare and the CME impact from last night. Read about it on the forum. More info

Viewing archive of Monday, 18 June 2012

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S15W53) produced a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at 17/2139Z. Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at 690 millionths. Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42) showed signs of decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from 17/2100Z to 18/0300Z. Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z to 18/0600Z. This elevated activity was due to persistent effects from the 13 and 14 June CMEs. The remainder of the period showed a steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels are expected on 20 - 21 June.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
  Class M     25/25/25
  Class X     05/05/05
  Proton      05/05/05
  PCAF        Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 118
  Predicted    19 Jun-21 Jun  115/110/095
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  036/055
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         20/05/05
        Minor storm                    05/01/01
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         20/15/15
        Minor storm                    30/15/10
        Major-severe storm             25/05/05
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06:24 May 18 2013
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6.00) - Observers at high latitudes may see some nice periods of visual aurora. The chances for the Middle latitude is still relatively low.
09:15 May 17 2013
Strong M3.21 solar flare
22:09 May 16 2013
Moderately strong M1.31 solar flare

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