Active Region 1748 remains a magnetically complex region and more M-class solar flares are possible. We also take a look at the Coronal Mass Ejection from the M3.2 solar flare and the CME impact from last night. Read about it on the forum. More info

Viewing archive of Friday, 11 May 2012

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with several C-class x-ray flares. Region 1476 (N10W06) was the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z. This region has remained mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots. New Regions 1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24 hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to show much activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately 650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s. The effects of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next 24-48hrs. The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
  Class M     75/75/75
  Class X     20/20/20
  Proton      10/10/10
  PCAF        Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 May 136
  Predicted    12 May-14 May  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        11 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  011/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         15/10/05
        Minor storm                    05/01/01
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         20/15/15
        Minor storm                    25/20/15
        Major-severe storm             20/10/05
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06:24 May 18 2013
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6.00) - Observers at high latitudes may see some nice periods of visual aurora. The chances for the Middle latitude is still relatively low.
09:15 May 17 2013
Strong M3.21 solar flare
22:09 May 16 2013
Moderately strong M1.31 solar flare

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