Active Region 1748 remains a magnetically complex region and more M-class solar flares are possible. We also take a look at the Coronal Mass Ejection from the M3.2 solar flare and the CME impact from last night. Read about it on the forum. More info

Viewing archive of Friday, 04 May 2012

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The background x-ray levels, as measured by the GOES-15 spacecraft, have shown a gradual increase to C-class levels. This increase is attributed to a new unnumbered sunspot region rotating onto the northeast limb. At the time of the report, SDO intensitygram images showed only a part of this new region. Due to the limb location, actual sunspot and magnetic classification has yet to be determined. The other sunspot regions on the disk remained rather stable for the past 24 hours. A CME, first observed in STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery at 04/0309Z, was determined to not be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days (05 - 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have remained at background levels, below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 - 07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
  Class M     10/10/10
  Class X     01/01/01
  Proton      01/01/01
  PCAF        green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 May 114
  Predicted    05 May-07 May  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        04 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 May  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         05/05/05
        Minor storm                    01/01/01
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         10/10/10
        Minor storm                    05/05/05
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
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Short archive

With the short archive you can view 24h plots of the latest 14 days of solar data. When aquiring the data it could take a while before the plot will be shown. Data available until 14 days ago.
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There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
In the past two hours there was a small solar flare with a class of:
C1.55

Auroral activity

Live
High latitude (76% chance)
Middle latitude (2% chance)
Low latitude (2% chance)
Today
Minor
Severe
High latitude
20%
75%
Middle latitude
30%
20%

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Latest news

06:24 May 18 2013
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6.00) - Observers at high latitudes may see some nice periods of visual aurora. The chances for the Middle latitude is still relatively low.
09:15 May 17 2013
Strong M3.21 solar flare
22:09 May 16 2013
Moderately strong M1.31 solar flare

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