Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2012

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z. Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels throughout the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01 - 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
  Class M     10/10/10
  Class X     01/01/01
  Proton      01/01/01
  PCAF        green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 114
  Predicted    01 May-03 May  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  007/008-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
  A.  Middle Latitudes
        Active                         15/15/10
        Minor storm                    05/05/01
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
  B.  High Latitudes
        Active                         25/25/15
        Minor storm                    10/10/05
        Major-severe storm             01/01/01
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There are currently, on the basis of the current data, no chances to see an aurora display on the Middle latitudes
In the past two hours there was a small solar flare with a class of:
C1.27

Auroral activity

Live
High latitude (43% chance)
Middle latitude (0% chance)
Low latitude (0% chance)
Today
Minor
Severe
High latitude
20%
75%
Middle latitude
30%
20%

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Latest news

05:42 May 20 2013
Moderately strong M1.77 solar flare
22:36 May 19 2013
Weak CME impact
Currently we see the effects of the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at the ACE satellite. The solar wind speed rose with 79.26 km/sec to 455.5 km/sec.
  • Solar wind speed: 455.5 km/sec and density 0.4 p/cm3
  • IMF Bt (strength): 13.4 nT - Bz 3.2 nT
06:24 May 18 2013
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm (Kp 6.00) - Observers at high latitudes may see some nice periods of visual aurora. The chances for the Middle latitude is still relatively low.

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