AbeH Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Looks like another watch for geomagnetic storms today. This email was sent to me just a few minutes ago Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 651 Issue Time: 2015 Aug 22 2131 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Aug 23: G1 (Minor) Aug 24: G1 (Minor) Aug 25: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. As with this one. :Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2015 Aug 22 2100 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 August follow. Solar flux 117 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 22 August was 2. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely. Also I recieved this email with codes but I dont know what they mean :Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2015 Aug 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA234 UGEOA 20401 50822 0330/ 9930/ 11221 20221 30222 99999 UGEOE 20401 50822 0330/ 21/03 01562 0218/ 02372 21210 0//// 0//// 23916 92403 09342 0948/ 10072 21422 11202 07301 22617 92403 19102 2034/ 20502 21111 0//// 0//// 22612 92403 99999 UGEOI 20401 50822 0330/ 21/// 10078 21100 3006/ 4///0 50300 65007 71104 80004 90380 99999 UGEOR 20401 50822 0330/ 21/24 22103 12401 20000 30000 47101 50010 60002 35811 00000 12403 20300 31721 44533 50350 60043 22314 18310 12404 20000 30000 43112 50020 60003 11314 01000 99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 Update! It appears 2 cme's are combining according to this page http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-minor-geomagnetic-storms-likely-23-24-aug-2015 could this result in higher level GEO Storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 They seem to have taken it off the ENLIL. I have issued a (french) alert for my followers too, but now I don't know what's going on. I'll be on watch for the next three days, anyway 2403 seems to shoot M-flares at a 6 to 9-hours rate, so I'm pretty sure we'll see something else before it disapears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 They seem to have taken it off the ENLIL. I have issued a (french) alert for my followers too, but now I don't know what's going on. I'll be on watch for the next three days, anyway 2403 seems to shoot M-flares at a 6 to 9-hours rate, so I'm pretty sure we'll see something else before it disapears.Indeed it will be interesting to see what 2403 stirs up before it disappears of the earth side face. Guess its just a waiting game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 Indeed it will be interesting to see what 2403 stirs up before it disappears of the earth side face. Guess its just a waiting game now.Activity seems to be increasing with a G2 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Activity seems to be increasing with a G2 event.I believe that was from the coronal hole. We should get the EMC tonight around 1900 eastern, I think. I say G2 very likely, G3 possible. Keep your eyes to the north, you might see your second aurora tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 The G2 geomagnetic storm was indeed coronal hole related. The two CMEs from those M-flares were really faint and slow. I doubt they will leave a notable trace in the solar wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 The G2 geomagnetic storm was indeed coronal hole related. The two CMEs from those M-flares were really faint and slow. I doubt they will leave a notable trace in the solar wind.Yeah. That was disapointing. Well, we'll have other CMEs =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Seems like there was a R2 event at some point in the past 24 Hours would this have been a result from the 2 CME's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 No, that was the M5 flare I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Seems like there was a R2 event at some point in the past 24 Hours would this have been a result from the 2 CME's?R2 stand for radio blackouts of the R2 level. This occurs when the X-ray flux associated with solar flares reaches between M5 and M9.99. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/what-are-radio-blackoutsIt has nothing to do with CMEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 R2 stand for radio blackouts of the R2 level. This occurs when the X-ray flux associated with solar flares reaches between M5 and M9.99. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/what-are-radio-blackoutsIt has nothing to do with CMEs.ok thanks for the info but could the X-Ray flux be affected by CME's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 ok thanks for the info but could the X-Ray flux be affected by CME's?Coronal mass ejections are (often) a result of strong solar flares. Coronal mass ejections do not influence the activity on the Sun in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaimbridge Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 ok thanks for the info but could the X-Ray flux be affected by CME's?Think of sunspot regions as thunderstorms—flares are the lightning bolts and CMEs are the subsequent “thunder rumbles” (well, actually, a CME is the lightning bolt striking a gunpowder factory, with the debris exploding out millions of miles!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I like that explanation! Very good Kaimbridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Think of sunspot regions as thunderstorms—flares are the lightning bolts and CMEs are the subsequent “thunder rumbles” (well, actually, a CME is the lightning bolt striking a gunpowder factory, with the debris exploding out millions of miles!).Thanks for that explanation! I have actually been into weather for about 11 years now so that makes it make so much more sense to me! Also I just read that no CME is expected from The R2 Flare Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 That is correct. The M5 solar flare did not launch a coronal mass ejection, but that was to be expected from such an impulsive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The M5 flare did cause a small rise in EPAM electrons. Isn't that a sign of a (little) cme? Or at least something (partly) earth directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 There was no CME from the M5 flare. I think it responded to whatever it was that has been hitting Earth the past 24 hours or so. I think it is one of those small M-class CMEs that is pushing the Bz down for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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