AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So this has definitely been a very active week for geo-storms unfortunately I wasnt able to see any of the aurora due to overcast skies. Post your thoughts on this week if you like. P.S. Post any pictures of your aurora sightings I would love to take a look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well I must admit I was surprised, at first, then a bit scared, when I saw the ENLIL about the big one we had. I warned my page's followers that this could be as strong as 1989, but having no material to compare, that was a complete guess and I was wrong. Question is : how wrong was I? What was the 1989 event like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I do not know the details of the 1989 event but I think that came from a Super X-class solar flare and the solar wind speed at Earth was well above 1.500 km/s. This CME didn't even leave the Sun at that speed. I think we could have reached the G5 geomagnetic storm threshold with this event if the solar wind speed was higher, I mean the direction of the IMF went as low as -39nT, that's a very impressive value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I agree about the Bz value. I'm actually surprised we didn't reach a G5 this week. Thanks for the info about the speed of the 1989 event. If there's any online ressource about this specific event, I'd like to know it, so I can study more. Thanks again. Been wondering... Where can I get live/very recent coronagraph imagery that is not C2/C3... Like the magnetic ripples in grey. I'd very much like to add this tool to my collection, and I've been looking around and I can't seem to find it on SOHO, Lasco and NOAA websites. Maybe I missed it?Mod edit: please avoid double posting. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well I will look around for some info on the 1989 storm and post what I find. I to was scared when I saw some of the info flood in on how much the storm intensity I was also warning some friends that we may experience some power outages and to prepare for that but luckily it didnt come to that. Heres a link that might be of use for some info on the 1989 storm http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/geomagnetic-storm-march-13-1989-extreme-space-weather/ My one question right now is was the 1989 solar event worse then Carrington?Mod edit: please avoid double posting. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 For all I know, the Carrington event was far worse. BUT... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Yes I do remember that I was 14 at that time it was scary. If that would have hit us we would probably still be picking up the pieces to this day. Also I was glued to noaa everyday for about a week after that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 and the cme that is giving us a glancing blow is lesser speed than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I've read the 2012 CME was, just like the Carrington event, preceded by another one that kinda "paved the way", making possible for it to travel at such a ridiculously high speed. In 1989, we reached X 15. NOAA keeps a steady record of data in their archive, but I can't seem to find the class of the 2012 event. And since it's the closest thing to a Carrington-class event we've measured, well, comparing both indexes could be a good way to know. I was unaware of the 2012 eruption at the time. I started monitoring the sun back in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Maxime, I read a paper on the June 2012 event some time ago but have no time to look for it. I remember they estimated it to be somewhere between X1 and X3 if I remember correct but that was based on STEREO EUVI images.They explained this event as two CMEs from on eruption very close by each other which pushed the overall strength of the IMF over 100nT at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 i would say as long as we dont get multiple CMES there should not be any issues with the grid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 More news regarding the M7.9 solar flare at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/130/20150625-m79-solar-flare. Feel free to discuss our conclusions. That's why we have this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well we had 3 cme's relatively close to each other I belive that if things were timed just a little better we could have been dealing with something much worse than carrington. But thats just my thought. I do feel more confident that since NOAA's new satellite has reached langrage point 1 they concluded that we now have 1+ Hours of warning time for strong flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 No these CMEs were way to slow. The Halloween Solar Storm CMEs of October 2003 had solar wind speeds at Earth close to 1900km/s and that event did not even come close to the Carrington event. Here is a video you might enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hABmdvKReNo I do feel more confident that since NOAA's new satellite has reached langrage point 1 they concluded that we now have 1+ Hours of warning time for strong flares.It is at the same location as ACE so the warning time hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 maybe this site would help prep for a Carrigton Event..http://www.todayshomeowner.com/how-to-protect-your-home-from-solar-flares-and-solar-storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 No. Just any prepper site will not do. This one relays the very same BS every other prepper website does : comparing a CME to a nuclear EMP just doesn't work in an honest, intellectual thought. @bout this week's CMEs : One must not forget that even though we've had three impacting CMEs in very little time, both of them actually were very off-course, and considered as glancing blows. 1900km/s... I can't even imagine that. My thinking is that if a Carrington-class CME hits us, it's a working farm and a heckload of firearms (and vaillant men to wield them) that you will need. That is, if you're "only" planning for a 1989-level CME or so, a couple weeks worth of food and stored water might not hurt, of course. Then again, I never could understand why people don't ALREADY carry a couple weeks worth of supplies. O.oMod edit: please avoid double posting. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I've been following Space Weather up close since the start of solar cycle 23, i've seen many very strong storms and i've witnessed the Halloween storms of October 2003. If we look in history you'll see that that event was the 6th strongest storm since the Ap index was being recorded. At the first place is a storm in 1941, second 1960, 1989, 1940, 1960 and 2003. Just to make things clear to everyone: this is not the first impact,the Earth is dealing with it for thousands and thousands of years, it's only in modern times we get to know more about them and that we can say the human species stil survived all those years dealing with such storms. And if you look at the strongest storms many are there from recent history and see that we are still here. So don't read all those prophecy sites and articles of people that don't know the real science behind it or haven't been following space weather that long. The storms we had in the past days are in my eyes just normal stuff, i've seen worse and found it so much exciting, i've even seen graphs go off charts and i'm still here i'll party to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 One thing for sure is that I do truely fear that one day during my life a carrington class event will happen. Since im only 17 the odds seem high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Lol unless a new maunder minimum arrives ;) Also, this cycle sucks so bad in geomagnetic storms, why is everyone so afraid of the storms of past days? Imagine that you where in previous solar cycle, we had more than double of those storms, like in 2003 we had 120 days with geomagnetic storm >=G1, would you all dive in a deep cave to run away from such storms? just go out and enjoy the show YOLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Lol unless a new maunder minimum arrives Also, this cycle sucks so bad in geomagnetic storms, why is everyone so afraid of the storms of past days? Imagine that you where in previous solar cycle, we had more than double of those storms, like in 2003 we had 120 days with geomagnetic storm >=G1, would you all dive in a deep cave to run away from such storms? just go out and enjoy the show YOLO I do understand that I dont fear these storms I love them in fact. Im talking about a Carrington Class event or worse. I dont think that its unsensible to be a little afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I do understand that I dont fear these storms I love them in fact. Im talking about a Carrington Class event or worse. I dont think that its unsensible to be a little afraid.i have to agree with you plus i would not worry unless it was a carrigton class CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hey Guys! looks like we may see more aurora another Earth Directed CME! Take a look! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sun-produces-yet-another-earth-directed-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 i got to say this sunspot has erupted so much that it wont any juice left in the farside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 I really love talking with you guys about CME's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hey Guys! looks like we may see more aurora another Earth Directed CME! Take a look! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sun-produces-yet-another-earth-directed-eventi think noaa has it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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