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Active Region 2146


Marcel de Bont

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 25, 2014

 


Analysis of the past 24h

Sunspot region 2146 just produced an M2.0 solar flare that peaked at 15:11 UTC. This region is already rotating towards the west-limb but any resulting CME can still be earth-directed. We will keep you updated as the day progresses.

 

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Images courtesy of NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory.

Coronal Mass Ejection (UPDATE: 16:45 UTC)

A CME is now visible on the first LASCO frames. It looks like most of the ejecta is heading west but an earth-directed component is still possible. We need to wait for more data for a final conclusion.

 

 

Coronal Mass Ejection (UPDATE: 18:35 UTC)

LASCO imagery is now available showing the CME released by today's M2 solar flare that peaked at 15:11 UTC. The solar flare came from sunspot region 2146 and launched a CME that is heading mostly towards the west but an asymmetrical full halo CME can be seen on the imagery which means that the CME is earth-directed.

 

The electrons as measured by ACE EPAM are also rising which is another indicator that the CME is earth-directed. The >10MeV solar protons remain at background level at the time of writing but there remains a slight risk that the protons reach the S1 storm level.

 

So what to expect? We do not know the speed of the CME yet so it is not possible for us to give you an estimated impact time for this CME or forecast what kind of geomagnetic conditions to expect. We will however keep you updated and come back with more information when it is available.

 

SOHO/LASCO C2 animation 

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SOHO/LASCO C3 animation

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10cm Radio Burst

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R

Serial Number: 625

Issue Time: 2014 Aug 25 1530 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst

Begin Time: 2014 Aug 25 1458 UTC

Maximum Time: 2014 Aug 25 1501 UTC

End Time: 2014 Aug 25 1503 UTC

Duration: 5 minutes

Peak Flux: 170 sfu

Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 141 sfu

 

Type II Radio Emission

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2

Serial Number: 955

Issue Time: 2014 Aug 25 1538 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2014 Aug 25 1508 UTC

Estimated Velocity: 707 km/s

 

Type IV Radio Emission

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4

Serial Number: 473

Issue Time: 2014 Aug 25 1539 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2014 Aug 25 1518 UTC

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

An analysis by the SpaceWeatherLive team shows that the group has developed a clear magnetic delta structure in the southern penumbral area of the sunspot cluster. Due to this development more M-class flares are possible.

M-class flare probability: 40% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 25, 2014 - 20:25 UTC

 


Sunspot region 2146 did it again! Only hours after the M2 solar flare, sunspot region 2146 produced the second M-class event of today: M3.98 at 20:21 UTC. There will be a chance that we reach the S1 proton storm threshold. More information will be posted here if this event produces a Coronal Mass Ejection.

 

 

f010eu.gif

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Sunspot region 2146 has a magnetic delta structure in the southern penumbral area of the sunspot cluster that has been growing since our latest update. Due to this development more M-class flares are possible. We have raised the probability for M-class flares in the next 24 hours to 60%.

 

M-class flare probability: 60% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 26, 2014 - 05:15 UTC

 


Yesterday's M3.9 solar flare also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection but it is not directed towards Earth. All of the ejecta is heading west and away from Earth.

SOHO/LASCO C2 animation of the M3.9 CME - not earth-directed

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The NOAA SWPC states in their latest report that the M2.0 CME does not have an earth-directed component but we highly disagree with this statement. Not only was there a halo CME visible, the electrons and low energy protons as measured by ACE EPAM are one the rise: a classic sign of an approaching interplanetary shock wave. A calculation shows that the speed of the CME lies just above 500km/s which would place the travel time for this CME at more than three days. We expect an impact during the first half of August 29. If the direction of the IMF cooperates than G1 geomagnetic storming is possible when the CME arrives.

SIDC

This is what the European SIDC writes in their latest report. Their report seems more in line with the imagery that we have been seeing:

 

Two CMEs were observed in coronographic imagery, with NOAA AR 2146 as

source region.

An asymmetric halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 and STEREO

B/COR2 data, with first measurements on August 25 at 15:24 UT (C2), 16:18

UT (C3) and 16:24 UT (STEREO B) respectively. The CME was associated with a

M2 flare peaking at 15:11 UT, dimming and type II and IV

radio bursts (shock speed estimated at 707 km/s by the Sagamore Hill

station).

The CME has a projected line-of-sight speed of 568 km/s (CACTus estimate).

A second partial halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3, with first

measurements on August 25 at 20:36 UT (C2) and 21:18 UT (C3). Also this CME

was associated with an M-class flare (M3.9, peak at 20:21 UT). The CME is

travelling with a projected line-of-sight speed of 761 km/s (CACTus

estimate).

Both CMEs are mainly propagating in the western direction from the

Sun-Earth line and might be interacting with each other. A shock might

arrive in the second half of the UT day of August 28. 

Video of the two M-class solar flares

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What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Sunspot region 2146 keeps it's complex Beta-Gamma-Delta layout and more M-class flares are likely today. The region is however nearing the west limb and any eruptions might not be earth-directed.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2014/post-94-0-76658300-1409030024.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2014/post-94-0-98118000-1409030024.jpg

 

M-class flare probability: 60% chance

X-class flare probability: 10% chance

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