Marcel de Bont Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X-class flares June 10, 2014 Two major X-class flares in just over an hour! A new sunspot region near the east limb (has yet to be numbered but will likely be numbered 2087) just produced 2 X-class flares in rapid succession. X-class flares are the largest class of solar flares. In this movie from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory you will see the two X-class events. First the impulsive X2.2 and than the X1.5 which was a bit longer in duration. Coronagraph imagery is limited but the first X-class flare seems to have produced only a small CME. The later X-flare, the long duration X1.5 launched a massive CME. Major coronal dimming can be seen on AIA imagery and a massive CME is visible on STEREO A. It is not likely to be earth-directed because the eruptions were close to the limb but of course we will keep an eye on it and come back with more news when needed. LASCO has still to be updated and we need these images to fully analyse the CME. This region is still too close to the limb to analyse it's magnetic layout but with two X-class flares in such a short time frame, it is possible to expect more flares in the coming days. EDIT 14:33 UTC: This region has now been officially numbered 2087 by the NOAA SWPC. 615f5fb5cb60e2532290444808abfc08 CME X-ray plots http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-94-0-40518800-1402410545.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-94-0-01749700-1402411426.gif X2.2 by SDO/AIA 131 X1.5 by SDO/AIA 131 X2.2 coronal dimming X1.5 coronal dimming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X-class flares CME analysis June 10, 2014 Coronagraph imagery is now becoming available and LASCO shows a faint full halo outline with the bulk of the ejecta heading well east as expected. While the ACE EPAM protons and electrons did not seem to rise after the flare, there is a faint halo to be seen indicating the CME has a minor earth-directed component. EPAM could still respond later on as the CME approaches Earth. The speed of the CME is about 900km/s as measured with the jplots which would place the arrival time of this CME early on June 13 if we take into account that CME will decelerate on it's way to Earth. No geomagnetic storming is expected from this CME as it will only be a glancing blow but nonetheless be alert the coming days for possible increased geomagnetic activity. The .gif animations below show the CME as seen by both LASCO C2 and LASCO C3. If you look closely you can see a full halo outline, indicating that we can expect a glancing blow here at Earth. YouTube video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X-class flare June 11, 2014 What an active day, after a minor impulsive M-class flare from region 2080 the new region 2087 produced an M3 class solar flare, it was short in duration so we expect no associated CME with it. One hour later Active Region 2087 produced it's third X-class flare, it was exactly X1.0. Unfortunately our alert system suffered from a minor bug and tweeted it as an M8 flare, we excuse us for that. The bug will be resolved later today. Active Region 2087 looks to be in a phase of growth, it is still difficult to determine it's magnetic complexity because it is still near the limb but from first sight there looks to be a delta structure within the region that's strong enough to produce further flares. Later today, when LASCO imagery is complete, we'll take a look if there was a CME associated. Watch us for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Kévin Fillin Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Bonjour tout le monde, voici mon premier message concernant l'activité solaire et j'en est fais une analyse ce matin. Analyse solaire:L'activité solaire reste très élevé avec 2 nouvelles fortes éruptions solaire classé M et une classe X autour de la même tâche solaire AR 2087 et de AR 2080. Pas de CME détecté pour l'instant mais à suivre. Par contre, la CME issue des 2 classes X d'hier est prévu de passé non loin de la Terre mais nous devrions être épargné de peu ou être très légèrement touché par le nuage de plasma par coup oblique. Eruptions solaire: C5.0 à 4h39 autour de AR 2087 M1.8 à 5h30 autour de AR 2080 C3.4 à 6h26 autour de AR 2087 C2.8 à 7h09 autour de AR 2080 M3.0 à 8h00 autour de AR 2087 X1.0 à 10h00 autour de AR 2087 Concernant les CME, il n'y en pas eu pour l'instant après ces éruptions solaire mais sa reste sous haute surveillance, les probabilités que j'ai mis hier pour le risque d'éruption solaire de chaque tâche a été juste. Mais pour la CME qu'il y a eu hier après les 2 classes X, on devrait être très légèrement touché par coup oblique d'ici le 13 Juin. On peut éventuellement s'attendre à une montée du vent solaire jusqu'à 600km/s et avoir une tempête géomagnétique classé G1 mineur avec un indice Kp=5 possible. Donc l'activité solaire à fortement augmenté depuis hier, je laisse le HIGHT RISK SOLAR FLARE car une possible classe M5+ voir X1 à X2 reste possible autour de AR 2080 et AR 2087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity & Active Regions June 11th 2014 Summary of the past 24h Solar activity has been at high levels again today with one X-class flare, three M-class flares and numerous C-class flares. The largest activity came from active region 2087 that produced the two X-class flares yesterday, it was responsible for a short duration M3 solar flare followed by a short duration X1.0 strong solar flare. It also produced an M3.9 flare when writing this report, the flare was short in nature too and was not eruptive. Region 2080 also showed some activity today with an impulsive M1.8 flare and some minor C-class flares. Finally a newly emerged region in the northern hemisphere asks for some attention too with some minor C-class flare activity, this region will be numbered as AR12089. None of these events produced a Coronal mass Ejection, only the X1 produced a minor CME but was not Earth directed. This was also our first big test for our newly developed Active Region detector which tries to assign a solar flare to an active region. It is used for our alert system to provide you the best experience. Analysis of the active regions AR12087 Let's start with the most active region of the past two days, the region is now rotated in a better position on the visible solar disk and reveals it's magnetic layout and complexity. A large delta structure that was there in the morning has now separated itself from the cluster making it bit less complex. The region is not in a phase of decay and changed a lot during the day gaining some new spots in the trailing part. Strong flares are still possible. AR12080 This region has started to decay, loosing lots of spots in the trailing part of the region but it still has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing part and was also the cause of the M class flare of today. As long as the delta structure holds, minor M-class flare can't be ruled out. AR12089 This is a new region that rapidly emerged yesterday evening and normally we wouldn't take much attention to it, but because it had one tiny delta structure it's worth mentioning, it did produce a C2 flare and if development continues it might produce some more C-class flares. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Solar activity will remain at moderate to high levels with region 12087 that still poses a large threat for an X-class flare. Chances for a proton event are still low but can't be ruled out if strong flare occurs. M-class flare probability: 60% chance X-class flare probability: 30% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity & Active Regions June 12th 2014 14h45 Discussion of todays activity June 12th is yet another active day on the Sun, no X-class flares where observed but three moderately strong M-class flares where observed from two active regions and also numerous C-class flares. The first M-class flare from today was an M2 solar flare from AR12087 and peaked at 04h21, it was however a short flare but looking at difference images there looks to be a CME associated with it but won't be Earth directed due to the position of the region. The second flare was an M1.8 solar flare from AR12085 and immediately after followed by an M2 solar flare from AR12087. On the difference images of SDO imagery there is coronal dimming visible with material that's being ejected, due to the lack of LASCO imagery we can't determine if there is an Earthward directed part. EPAM monitor did show a rise in the low energy electrons so there might be an Earthward part but we will make a CME analysis once LASCO data is completed. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-1-0-94010300-1402583882.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-1-0-56649600-1402583882.jpg Difference image of the M2 on the left and M1.8/M2 on the rightDiscussion of Active Regions AR 12085 This region still holds a minor delta spot in the central part of the region and is relatively stable, strong events are not expected M-class flares can't be excluded. AR 12087 Now that the magnetic configuration is now visible in better ways than this morning, we can conclude that a very strong delta structure persist in the central part of the region, it's so compact that you can't draw a line between those two magnetic zones. The images below will give you a better look: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-1-0-99244100-1402584467.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_06_2014/post-1-0-63522500-1402584468.jpg Because of this strong delta structure, strong flares remain possible, X-class flare can't be excluded. Keep following us here for large updates, Twitter for live alerts and our website for latest data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The bombardment of small M-class flares continues with AR12089 joining the club with an M1.1 during a small data gap in x-ray GOES data. All M-flares of today had practically no or barely any CME associated with it.At the moment the most interesting flare of today was in progress, an M3.15 solar flare in region 12085, it's a long duration flare with moderate coronal dimming so a CME is likely associated with it. We wil update when further imagery is available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 You talk about coronal dimming. Can you explain this a bit more and why it means that a CME is associated with it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 The CME itself looks not Earth directed, bulk is headed southwest of the equator. LASCO data is near complete so we don't have full view on it yet.The coronal dimming can say much if there is an associated CME, this is been done with difference images of SDO to see it more clearly. Some examples are in the first post of the X1 flares and you'll see what we mean ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Active region update June 13th 15h15 AR12087 The active region lost it's magnetic delta structure, making it a beta-gamma region. It also lost several spots and is in a phase of decay. It is still capable of producing minor M-class flares but chances are getting lower. AR12080 This region developed further, there was spot growth noted south of the leader spot. In this new spot formation a strong delta structure has been formed. This region is capable of producing M-class events with a slight chance for an X-class flare. The region will soon be on the limb and leave out of sight. AR12085 This region lost several spots and goes into a phase of decay. It has a beta-gamma magnetic layout. Only low M-class flares can be expected still but chances are also getting lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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