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Active Region 2036 - (M7.3)


Guest Stephane Mabille

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Guest Harry Twinotter

Now 4 beta-gamma active regions. Odds are in our favour of some interesting activity in the next several days.

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of AR 12036

 


Analysis of the past 24h

Solar activity was low today with only minor C-class flares from a newer region on the disk which showed gradual growth during the last 24h. Largest flare was a C5.7 flare.

The region is currently a beta-gamma region with continuous development. In the southern part of the cluster new penumbral area is growing and tries to connect with the spots of opposite polarity, if this continues we can see growing chances for M-class flare.

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity will be fairly low with growing chances for an M-class event due to the development of AR 12036.

 

M-class flare probability: 35% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

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Analysis of AR 12036 & 12035 - April 15th


Analysis of the past 24h

As mentioned in our last update a delta formation was forming in AR12036, during the night the penumbral area grew and so it was for a large part of the day a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. However, the delta spot separated itself again so in the latest imagery the region has a beta-gamma magnetic layout. The region was responsible for multiple C and some B-class flares.

A bit to the north of AR12036 is AR12037, there is a small delta spot visible in the eastern part of the region, it's still very small so only impulsive c-class flares are possible.

An other region worth mentioning was AR12035, it produced the largest flare of today, a C8.6. Looking at this region it shows us a beta-gamma layout, no large flares are expected, only minor impulsive C-class flares.

All other regions where quiet and did not show much change. Multiple new regions are trying to form as well.

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity will be fairly low with a minor chance for M-class flares.

 

M-class flare probability: 30% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

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Guest Jose Ignacio

Désolé. Mon problème est le contraire à la vôtre. Je parle un peu français et presque pas anglais. Je vais essayer de trouver un traducteur semaine prochaine et demande à nouveau. Merci

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Guest Stephane Mabille

Beginning of increased / electron flow from 175 to 315 1 p / cm3 énergy keV following the eruption moderately strong solar flare  M 7 .3 

 

787412Epam6h.gif

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Analysis M7.3 solar flare


Sunspot region 2036 produced a strong solar flare with a maximum X-ray flux value of M7.3. The flare peaked at 13:03 UTC. It is a long duration flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) was launched. ACE EPAM electrons and the primary protons are responding indicating there is a chance that the CME has an earth-directed component. STEREO imagery shows a CME with the bulk heading mainly south. LASCO imagery is needed for a more thorough analyses. There is also a good chance that we reach the S1 protonstorm level. Image: the solar flare as seen by SDO in four wavelengths.

More updates will follow.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-34706800-1397831565.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-35773800-1397831567.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-21845100-1397831586.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-50595200-1397831653.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-40934500-1397831709.png

 

211A running difference animation:

 

29auwyv.gif

 

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.

Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events.

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Guest Harry Twinotter

There appears to have also been a filament eruption from the same area a number of hours before. It might complicate the analysis of the CME.

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Preliminary analysis M7.3 CME


Here is a still frame from SOHO/LASCO C3 showing the CME that got launched following the M7 event. An asymmetrical full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible. The bulk of the CME is heading south as expected but there is an Earth-directed component. More information regarding possible arrival times and expected storm levels will follow later.

Animation LASCO C3:

auwns3.gif

YouTube video:

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