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Active Region 2027 - (M6.5)


Guest lingduxingxi

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Guest lingduxingxi

2027,Class Magn.α,Simple field types, why is there such a strong energy?

CME,Will point to the Earth?

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis M6.5 solar flare


An M6.5 solar flare (R2-moderate) occurred peaking at 14:05 UTC. Source of this solar flare seems to be region 2027 in cooperation with some unnumbered spots trailing 2027. 2027 is a fairly simple region but somehow the interacting between 2027 and the small trailing spots managed to produce this large flare. Ejecta was launched and coronal dimming can be seen indicating the launch of a CME. The CME will likely head of the eastern limb but perhaps there will be a slight earth-directed component. Have to wait for LASCO. STEREO does show a CME now.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-69767100-1396451251.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2014/post-94-0-05300500-1396480288.jpg

 

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EDIT 15:15 UTCStunning CME now visible in LASCO. More imagery needed to determine if it has an earth-directed component.

 

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Region 12027 surprised everyone today by launching a strong long duration M6.52 solar flare into space. The magnetic layout of the region is very simple and is classified as a beta region which normally are very calm and don't produce much flaring activity. Most probably there was a destabilization in some of the magnetic connections with interacting regions nearby. Confidence for that is shown in the x-ray graph which shows a steady rise in mid c-class level before bursting into the M-class range.

This event was a long duration event, the flare is now approximately 80 minutes into the M-class range, because of that a coronal mass ejection can be expected. Looking at first SDO imagery there is a strong coronal dimming. A bright and wide CME is expected from this event but we will have to wait for further imagery from Stereo and LASCO to determine the exact trajectory of the CME. Due to the location of the event chances are low that it will be Earth directed but in case of a very wide CME it might give us a glancing blow but that is still too early to tell.

As Marcel told, we will continue to monitor the situation.

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NASA has updated their CME model with the M6 CME. It shows a fairly strong impact. LASCO imagery is still limited and it is not possible to conclude if the CME has an earth-directed component. EPAM has not responded to this flare which could indicate that the CME is not earth-directed. We do not consider this model run to be reliable at this moment.

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis M6.5 CME


Now that LASCO is fully available it's time to further analyse the CME from the M6.5 solar flare from yesterday. It's now very clear that it is a full halo CME with the bulk of the CME headed northeast of the ecliptic and will miss Earth but as it was a full halo we can look forward to an impact on Earth. The speed of the CME was approximately 1500km/sec, but later datapoints by LASCO shows a slower speed for the full halo part of near 1000km/sec.

Because of the lack of reaction in the EPAM monitor it does not look very promising, despite being a bright full halo CME. Because of that and with the slower full halo part an impact is rather expected on April 4th in the evening UTC hours. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions are possible once the CME arrives.

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Guest Stephane Mabille

That night, with beautiful CME eruption undirected

 

We have beautiful CME on coronographs

 

982131aheadcor2latest.jpg

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Indicate a wonderful CME, Stephane, but was from the far side. :)


A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to sweep past our planet at the end of the current UTC day. It was launched by a M6 solar flare and could cause a minor G1 geomagnetic storm. The ACE EPAM low energy protons are slowly rising indicating that there is indeed a CME on it's way.

More info about EPAM: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-its-going-to-arrive

ENLIL solar wind model: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

C8 solar flare


A C8 solar flare at 13:48 UTC from region 2027 looks to have launched a Coronal Mass Ejection. A shock wave and coronal dimming were observed in AIA imagery as well as ejecta leaving the blast site. Type II and IV emissions were observed as well. We have to wait for additional imagery from SOHO to see if the CME has an earth-directed component.

 

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M6 CME

The M6 CME has yet to arrive at Earth. ACE EPAM protons have returned to nominal levels after spiking a few hours ago. The CME is likely still some hours away.

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

C8 CME analysis


Yesterday's C8 solar flare launched a Coronal Mass Ejection that is not earth-directed. LASCO imagery shows that all of the ejecta is heading northeast and away from Earth.

M6 CME

The M6 CME has yet to arrive at Earth. ACE EPAM protons have begun to slowly rise and also the high energy protons have became slightly elevated. It is likely that this is a response to the incoming CME. It is then much later then expected.

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