Guest lingduxingxi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Active Region 1990 GOES 15 X-Ray Events 1-8A Cur 25/0109 X1.4 Ratio 0.151 Beg25/0039C1.0 Max25/0049X4.9Int 4.3e-01 J m-2 End25/0103X2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Thanks for opening this topic. SpaceWeatherLive Report X4.97 solar flare A major solar flare with a maximum X-ray flux of X4.97 peaked at 00:49 UTC. The flare occurred around newly numbered sunspot region 1990 which was sunspot region 1967 during the previous rotation. This solar flare is the third strongest solar flare of this solar cycle. A Coronal Mass Ejection might have been launched but should have little to no effect on Earth considering the location of this group. More information will follow later if there is a CME associated with this event that has an Earth-directed component. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-36502000-1393291158.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-84905800-1393292360.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-78951200-1393292361.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-08697800-1393292385.png UPDATE 1:50 UTC: Major CME visible on the latest SOHO LASCO imagery. We have to wait for more imagery to see if it has an Earth-directed component. Most (if not all) of the ejecta is heading east as expected. UPDATE 2:30 UTC: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=527464477368066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The electron level in EPAM isn't a sign that something's heading our way? The protons though didn't move much... Anyway good to see good old 1967 back with us and still capable in 48 hrs I'll be in Lapland and will thus this time enjoy a full half rotation of our old friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Does the sharp rise in ACE EPAM electrons mean that there is at least an earth directed part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eieretertje Hayday Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Time to head for the shelter, it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hello, we are not completely sheltered, rising 30 MeV Protons and a sign of Earth directed component. NASA Goddard model look. Enlil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Hmmm I should ask the captain of the Paris-Helsinki flight that I take tomorrow night to let me in the cockpit to take photos of the northern horizon, if that CME really left with 2000km/s then it'll arrive right when I'm above the clouds facing the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Warning to radiation Kins ! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report X4.97 solar flare - First CME analysis LASCO imagery is dripping in and an asymmetrical full halo CME can be seen. This CME was launched by a X4.9 solar flare from region 1990 near the eastern limb. It is likely that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow somewhere during the second half of February 27. The >10MeV protons are slowly rising and might reach the S1 threshold. EPAM low-energy protons and electrons are also currently rising, confirming that the CME indeed has an Earth-directed component. CME in LASCO C2 CME in LASCO C3 (ADDED 14:30 UTC) Large Scale Coronal Propagating Front + Coronal dimming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Perfect! Now can you predict the weather as good as the space weather? I'm already exasperated by the forecasts before even being there, because I have a strong feeling it will be exactly as in December/January: clouds, clouds, clouds and more clouds! It is likely that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow somewhere during the second half of February 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PetaFlux Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't think it will hit, the current solar wind is to low for this partial cme component to break trough the slow moving particles in the Parker spirals. It will most likely be forced east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eieretertje Hayday Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I dont how about you, but it's raining heavy protons here! On the lasco c2 gif pic above - on the left is the CME, but what is that on the bottom right then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I dont how about you, but it's raining heavy protons here!On the lasco c2 gif pic above - on the left is the CME, but what is that on the bottom right then?The bottom right on the very first frames before the X4 CME? That is another CME from another eruption. Not sure what eruption, possibly far side but that is not Earth-directed.I don't think it will hit, the current solar wind is to low for this partial cme component to break trough the slow moving particles in the Parker spirals. It will most likely be forced east.Perhaps but the Parker Spiral should have a limited effect with such a fast CME. We are likely to see some kind of CME arrival but it won't be a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 In any case the trend and high solar activity and radiation storm Electron - Proton + wind of coronal origin between 27-28, geomagnetic field instabe (well) in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Here is a video of the solar flare with the help of the SDO spacecraft and footage of the CME thanks to SOHO/LASCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lingduxingxi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 At 14:10 on February 25 2014 (UT) proton flux> 10MeV, X4 CME? February 27 another X4 CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Why do you ask that? The X4 refers to the strength of the solar flare, nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 At 14:10 on February 25 2014 (UT) proton flux> 10MeV, X4 CME? February 27 another X4 CME?The S1 radiation storm comes from the X4.9 solar flare yes.I am not sure what you mean with ''February 27 another X4 CME?'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 At 14:10 on February 25 2014 (UT) proton flux> 10MeV, X4 CME? February 27 another X4 CME? Why do you ask that? The X4 refers to the strength of the solar flare, nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lingduxingxi Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm sorry, my English is not good. I am also a beginner, I want to ask is, X4.9 of CME, forecasts reach Earth in February 27? Then, on February 25 GOES satellite monitored proton flux> 10MeV, this is X4.9 of CME? Why the Earth is not the same arrival time of 2? CME is mainly electrons and protons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes, the CME is indeed expected to arrive today, February 27. EPAM Low Energy Protons are steadily rising which indicates the CME is getting closer. The elevated >10MeV protonflux is indeed caused by the X4.9 solar flare, it might actually rise a bit more until the CME passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lingduxingxi Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 X4.9 solar flare,Proton on February 25 on arrival to Earth? And GOES satellite monitored? This is not the ACE satellite monitoring protonflux to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lingduxingxi Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At 14:10 on February 25 2014 (UT) proton flux> 10MeV, This is the GOES satellite monitored should be another CME, not X4？ ACE satellite monitoring to the X4？ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The > 10 MeV primary solar protons are the first particles that arrive at Earth. During the flare protons are accelerated almost to the speed of light and arrive here first, way before the CME shock arrives. See also our help article that we wrote on the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Oh and yes, this is measured by GOES: '> And this comes from ACE: '> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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