Marcel de Bont Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - January 9, 2014 Solar Activity and Geophysical Activity Summary On January 7, around 18:30 UTC, sunspot region 1944 together with spotless plage region 1943 produced a major X1,25 (R3-strong) solar flare. It was a long duration solar flare from a location pretty much on the center of the Earth-facing solar disk. The solar flare produced a fast asymmetrical full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (short: CME) with the bulk of the ejecta heading south and west, away from Earth. A good portion of the cloud is however Earth-directed. It is estimated that the shock wave left the Sun at a speed close to 2.000km/s. That is pretty fast for a CME. For a complete overview of all the events yesterday we recommend you read >this topic. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=501528033295044 The CME as seen by SOHO/LASCO C2: The CME as seen by SOHO/LASCO C3: The solar flare as seen by SDO AIA/193A: Expected geomagnetic activity We expect the CME to arrive around 06:00 UTC on January 9 with a plus/minus of 6 hours. The Bz component of the IMF is likely to be mostly southward which encourages the development of a geomagnetic storm. G2 geomagnetic storming conditions are to be expected with possible periods of G3 geomagnetic storming conditions. North America will benefit the most of this CME impact considering the expected time of impact. It will likely come to late for middle latitude European sky watchers unless we see an earlier than expected impact, near midnight UT. We will however experience the effects of the CME throughout January 9 so also locations like Tasmania and southern New Zealand should be alert for great auroral displays when they approach magnetic midnight. For European sky watchers: geomagnetic conditions will likely die down to G1 geomagnetic storm levels on the evening of January 9 but an isolated period of G2 geomagnetic storming can not be ruled out if the IMF stays strong south for extended periods of time. Analysis valid until Friday January 10 2014 04:00 UTC: PHI : Positive (GONG,NSO) Theta : South (Bz) Halfpowerpoint : 53 minutes/long duration B0 -3.88° Locatie NOAA 1944 : S09W03 Note that it will only be possible to really determine what kind of geomagnetic conditions are to be expected once an impact has been detected and we know what the solar wind and IMF values are, so keep following our updates in this topic and on our social media channels for the most up-to-date and accurate information, this is a preliminary forecast. Low Latitudes: 10% chance Lower Middle Latitudes: 40% chance Upper Middle Latitudes: 70% chance High Latitudes: 95% chance Note that the solar wind data from the ACE SWEPAM instrument has become unreliable thanks to the space radiation storm that we are currently experiencing. This can be seen in the erratic. low solar wind speed and density readings. IMF readings remain reliable and these will have to be used to determine when the CME is passing the ACE spacecraft. The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see aurorae during a G1 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Seattle (WA, USA) Chicago (IL, USA) Toronto (ON, Canada) Halifax (NS, Canada) Europe: Edinburgh (Scotland) Gothenburg (Sweden) Riga (Latvia) Southern Hemisphere: Hobart (Australia) Invercargill (New Zealand) More info The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see aurorae during a G2 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Portland (OR, USA) Boise (ID, USA) Casper (WY, USA) Lincoln (NE, USA) Indianapolis (IN, USA) Columbus (OH, USA) New York City (NY, USA) Europe: Dublin (Ireland) Manchester (England) Hamburg (Germany) Gdańsk (Poland) Vilnius (Lithuania) Moscow (Russia) Southern Hemisphere: Devonport (Australia) Christchurch (New Zealand) More info The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see auroras during a G3 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Salt Lake City (UT, USA) Denver (CO, USA) Nashville (TN, USA) Richmond (VA, USA) Europe: London (England) Brussels (Belgium) Cologne (Germany) Dresden (Germany) Warsaw (Poland) Southern Hemisphere: Melbourne (Australia) Wellington (New Zealand) More info We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lb_n+1 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Hello, I have a quick question about IMF polarity prediction. When you say of the incoming ICME that: The Bz component of the IMF is likely to be mostly southward could you please say how the prediction is made? I believe the SWPC WSA/Enlil has the capability to do this but I cannot see the north/south IMF prediction on their website. Thank you, LB edited 2014-01-09 08:54 UT for typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 lb_n+1: that is really difficult to explain, the keys lie in the quote below. It has to do with the way the CME propagates past Earth and what the predicted Phi angle is. Use this image as a tool. This is still a bit of an experimental science for us but we do want to make this data public (what we use for our G-storm level predictions) for everyone to see. Analysis valid until Friday January 10 2014 04:00 UTC: PHI : Positive (GONG,NSO) Theta : South (Bz) Halfpowerpoint : 53 minutes/long duration B0 -3.88° Locatie NOAA 1944 : S09W03 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Update - January 9, 2014 We are still awaiting the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1.25 solar flare. There are no indications at this time that the CME has arrived already or missed Earth. It is not easy to point-point the exact time of impact that is why our forecasts always come with a plus/minus of 6 hours at both ends. Our arrival time for this CME stood for 6 UTC today. It is now 10 UTC so that would still give us 2 more hours within the anticipated time window. The CME clearly slowed down a lot on it's way from the Sun to Earth. There was likely more ambient solar wind for the CME to go trough than anticipated. In the mean time, it looks like the ACE SWEPAM (solar wind) data recovered from the radiation storm and is providing solid readings again. The predicted Wing-Kp values are also back because of this reason. Remember that the data can still not 100% be relied upon during S2 radiation storm levels so be alert of this when interpreting the ACE solar wind data. We will try to be online and watch the data as much as possible today and alert you of any significant news as soon as we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lb_n+1 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Thank you Marcel, That plot is really useful. A later CME arrival is in some ways good for those of us in the European sector: more chance of aurorae whilst it is dark. Obviously the consequences of a slower CME will be somewhat weaker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 That is very much correct. I still expect a decent impact considering the transit-time of the CME would still be under 48 hours if it arrives this afternoon. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Australia and New Zealand on standby. It is 11pm AEDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Australia and New Zealand on standby. It is 11pm AEDT. I hope it comes soon for you guys... I guess you have pretty short nights there now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Yes we do, it gets light early in Tasmania - high summer. But at least it is not as cold as it is during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Update - January 9, 2014 POSTED 19:00 UTC The ACE EPAM low-energy protons are now steadily climbing. This is a good sign that the X1.25 CME is closing in on Earth. An impact is to be expected within the next few hours. Watch the data on our front page -> You know when the CME has arrived when the solar wind data significantly increases together with the Bt. Attached image shows the ACE EPAM plot where you can see the increase in low-energy protons. We expect a slightly weaker impact because the CME is not as fast as first predicted. G2 geomagnetic storming will still be possible, but keep an eye on the latest predictions. When the CME arrives only then it is really possible to forecast what to expect. We keep you updated over the next few hours. ' alt='' class='ipsImage' > EDIT 19:20 UTC The ACE EPAM low-energy protons keep rising at the time of writing. We are on track for a CME impact soon. ' alt='' class='ipsImage' > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Update - January 9, 2014 CME impact detected at the ACE satellite. It will take the CME about 50 minutes to travel from ACE to Earth.The solar wind speed rose with 130.29 km/sec to 520.9 km/sec. Solar wind speed: 520.9 km/sec and density 3.7 p/cm3 - IMF Bt (strength): 13.3 nT - Bz 4.3 nT This is a rather weak impact at first sight, the CME slowed down significantly and is not as strong as expected. EPAM is still climbing so there might be a second shock coming but this is highly unsure. It is still very early after the impact so more information will follow later. No geomagnetic storming is to be expected with the current solar wind stats but we encourage everyone to keep following the data over the next few hours to see if the stats improve as we reach the core of the CME. The Bz can still swing suddenly south and provide nice high latitude displays. UPDATE 19:55 UTC The low-energy protons on the EPAM monitor are now dropping, a second shock will not occur. UPDATE 21:20 UTC The low-energy protons on the EPAM monitor remain elevated now, we might be seeing a pre-shock at the moment. A second shock could still follow. UPDATE 21:30 UTC: The first observed Kp-values are known and came out as a Kp2,67. With these kind of values only people on high latitudes can expect to see aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Polar regions will probably get nice auroras anyway. Middle latitudes nothing Tromso sky cam is already showing almost above head auroras... Lucky guys there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch End - January 10, 2014 CME recap The X1,25 CME did finally arrive around 19:30 UTC on January 9 which makes it a solid 12 hours later than anticipated. A slower CME means a weaker impact and that was noticeable. It was much weaker than anyone anticipated. Solar wind speeds near 520km/s were measured at arrival which is faster than normal but not fast at all. The IMF strength (Bt) went up to 16nT which is borderline moderately strong but by far not enough for major displays even if the Bz went south... which it didn't. The Bz component of the IMF was rather weak and did not show much of a response. It was also mostly northward, which halted the development of elevated geomagnetic conditions. What we saw was likely only a minor glancing blow, we missed out on the large bulk that we saw flying south-west. The Kp-index also never went above three which means only high latitude auroral displays were observed. Once more we see how difficult it is to predict space weather. It truly is full of surprises. This was an event with potential (X-class flare center disk, they don't get much better) but in the end it was rather disappointing. Forecast for tonight The forecast for tonight are quiet conditions. CME effects are expected to wane as time passes and there is no reason to believe we could see an uptick in the geomagnetic conditions. The next increase in activity will be a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream which is likely to arrive on January 12 or 13 but that will not create auroral chances for middle latitude locations. This concludes our coverage of the Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - January 9, 2014. The entire SpaceWeatherLive team thanks everyone for visiting us and following our forecasts. We we're pleasantly surprised by how many visitors we got to welcome and enjoyed all of your feedback, both on the forums as on our social media channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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