Guest Harry Twinotter Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The GOES13 and GOES15 electron flux sensors appear to be affected by the solar radiation storm as well. The readings look sick. www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/elec_3d.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Sander, how reliable is the 2000km/s for the speed of the CME? I read elsewhere that it was 1000km/s, which would affect hugely the arrival time (namely before or after my departure from Lapland)... Anyway, skies are clearing towards the north of Finland late at night, I'll spend there the entire night if needed, and go straight to the airport at 8:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Sander, how reliable is the 2000km/s for the speed of the CME? I read elsewhere that it was 1000km/s, which would affect hugely the arrival time (namely before or after my departure from Lapland)... Anyway, skies are clearing towards the north of Finland late at night, I'll spend there the entire night if needed, and go straight to the airport at 8:30am Pretty reliable, it is a fast CME. The 1.000 km/s was likely the radio sweep which has nothing to do with how fast the CME is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 You are right, too tired yesterday nigh I read too fast, it was the radio sweep indeed I'm packing my suitcase now just in case I come back too late at the hotel before my flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest barrt Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 In North America is there anything to worry about with this CME affecting the electric grid? I'm trying to put this into perspective. I know we've seen a few G2 and one G3 storm since I've been following this (1-1/2 year). Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 In North America is there anything to worry about with this CME affecting the electric grid? I'm trying to put this into perspective. I know we've seen a few G2 and one G3 storm since I've been following this (1-1/2 year). Thanks.There will be almost no effect on the power grids, the systems are prepared for such events so you won't notice anything. You'll need a G5 storm to get real problems on the grid + that would be only in the high latitude region around the Van Allen belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 By the way, when the ACE data is unreliable like now, are there other ways to detect the arrival of the CME? Will the IMF value be reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 IMF will be reliable, only solar wind speed and proton speed is "contaminated". Because of that, the predicted K-indice is unreliable too and is giving no further readings.For tonight all we have is EPAM to get to see when it is about to arrive, after arrival we have the IMF data to get a view of the chances and than it's up to the magnetometers if the direction of the IMF cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Ok thanks! I'm just wondering if I sleep now a few hours and head to the cloudless skies around 4am (and risk missing the show if early CME), or if I go there right now and risk not sleeping at all... Quite some drive and it has been snowing for 2 days non-stop so I better be awake and safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive - Sunspot region analysis January 8, 2014 - 17:00 UTC Region 1944 is still the biggest region on the visible solar disk but showed signs of decay within the region. Several spots are shrinking, there is also penumbral area that faded away, multiple spots that faded. This is not a good sign for future solar flares. However, there are still three delta spots in the region so a strong flare is still possible but if the region decays more, the chances are declining. If a strong flare occurs it will probably be just like the M4 flare and the X1.2 flare. With that we mean that an instability in 1944 would cause the magnetic surrounding fields to destabilize and produce a coinciding flare. With the M4 it was an interaction with 1946 and the X1.2 with the spotless region 1943. 1944 has a lot of magnetic loops with these two regions so if a destabilization occurs, a flare would occur somewhere between these two regions. A major flare is still a possibility. There is some friction in the central part with some magnetic loops close together that can destabilize the region. But if the region decays further or loses it's delta spots, the chances would become lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 So where is the CME? I'm taking off!! I did have though wonderful auroras last night, above average arctic night. I don't know what was the cause of this. Photos to follow :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lb_n+1 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 something arrived at ACE around 18:15 UT last night. Does not look like our CME though. It should have hit Earth much more strongly than that if it got here THAT fast (~24 hrs after the X1 flare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 So where is the CME? I'm taking off!! I did have though wonderful auroras last night, above average arctic night. I don't know what was the cause of this. Photos to follow Should be somewhere between Earth and ACE! It should... it is kinda running late! Bz was mostly south last night which should have kicked of some nice aurora at your latitude yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 something arrived at ACE around 18:15 UT last night. Does not look like our CME though. It should have hit Earth much more strongly than that if it got here THAT fast (~24 hrs after the X1 flare). It's ok, it was good enough to spark some nice aurora Maybe not as nice as what they get tonight though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cassandra Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Solar flare activity seems to have flat lined, do you think 1944 has retired or might there still be some major flares yet to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Looking at latest available imagery the region is in a phase of decay. This was also noted in our last update. There are two small delta spots still visible but they shrunk a lot and are too far away of a spot with opposite polarity in the same penumbral area to get enough friction for strong flare. We'll have to wait for an other region for a new update in activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Sunspot region 1944 is now transiting the west limb and solar activity is set to decline to lower levels with the departure of this region. Sunspot region 11944 was one of the largest sunspot group of this solar cycle and was responsible for most of the solar activity during the first two weeks of January 2014 with numerous M-class solar flares and one X-class solar flare. It produced two Earth-directed CMEs, including a CME from the X1.2 solar flare. A G3 geomagnetic storming was expected to develop on January 9 but the CME impact was much weaker than expected and no geomagnetic storming was observed. Despite the disappointment of this CME, sunspot region 1944 was an impressive region which we won't forget anytime soon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmqYNteccuc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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