Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update January 2nd, 2014 - 06:15 UTC Newly numbered region 1944 which rotated onto the limb yesterday is a very large sunspot cluster and shows a complex magnetic layout with multiple delta structures already visible. It is still close to the limb to determine it exactly. This region was responsible for multiple C-class flares when it rotated onto the limb and produced it's first M-class event (M1.78) in the early morning of January 2nd. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? M-class flares are very likely from this region, an X-class event is not excluded as well as it shows a very complex magnetic structure. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 25% chance Updated image at 16:00 UTC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update January 2nd, 2014 - 22:00 UTC Now that the sunspot rotated further onto the disk we can look at how it evolved over the past 24 hours and take a look on it's magnetic complexity. Compared to this morning the sunspot remains relatively stable but it lost several smaller spots in the northern penumbral area of the leader spot. Also in the center, where the faculae is, some spots faded and are now scattered penumbral area. The large leader spots remain very stable. If we look at the magnetogram it shows us a lesser complex region but as we said this morning it was not clear to determine the magnetic complexity because the region was still too close to the limb. Now it rotated further we can now tell for sure there is a small delta structure in the northern part of the northern leader spots, the other clusters appear to have no magnetic delta structure. So what does this mean? Without a strong magnetic delta structure, the chances for a strong solar flare is relatively small but because of the size of this region we may not exclude it because there is still a lot of polarity intermixing. A strong flare is possible but we reduce the chances for a major flare. A minor M1.2 flare was just observed from this region, this is the second M-class flare from today. The flare was very impulsive so a CME is not expected. M-class flare probability: 60% chance X-class flare probability: 10% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update January 3, 2014 - 16:00 UTC A short update on sunspot region 1944 which keeps on producing C-class flares and one minor M1 flare. When we look at the region compared to our last update we can see some changes in the region, to make it more clear we made this image: To the right we see the situation as it was in our last update and on the left the latest image of the region. The bad news is that the magnetic delta spot in the northern part of the region is now no longer penumbral connected so that would make the region more like a beta-gamma classification. The good news is that there are several parts within the region that are showing penumbral growth and also new spots formed but not yet a new delta structure. To sum things up, minor M-class flares are possible and if the development continues and the region forms a new delta structure, stronger events would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update January 4, 2014 - 20:00 UTC A slow rising solar flare that maxed out at M4.06 just took place. It peaked at 19:46 UTC. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-45477700-1388865631.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-07344900-1388866698.png The flare looked to have been a combined effort from regions 1943 and 1944. If the flare produced a Coronal Mass Ejection, it might have an Earth-directed component. A Type IV Radio Emission was associated with the eruption which can indicate the launch of a CME. More updates will be posted here later. The region grew a magnetic delta structure over the past hours which is located in it's intermediate spots. Sunspot region 1944 is now a region with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. More M-class flares are likely. UPDATE 21:00 UTC: The EPAM instrument onboard the ACE satellite is now responding to the M4 solar flare. This is a great sign that there was a CME launched with an Earth-directed component. We have to wait for LASCO imagery to be 100% sure. UPDATE 22:10 UTC: A CME is now visible in the latest STEREO Behind imagery. We have to wait for LASCO to be able to confirm if the cloud has an Earth-directed component. UPDATE 23:55 UTC: LASCO imagery show an asymmetrical full-halo CME. It is an Earth-directed CME. Image from the NASA/CDAW Data Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Sunspot Region Update January 4, 2014 - 23:50 UTC Solar activity gained new heights today as the x-ray flux started to rise and multiple M-class flares followed. The largest event of the day was a long duration M4 solar flare which launched a weak Earth-directed CME. See also our previous post in this topic. More information on this CME will come when we have more LASCO imagery. It was region 1944 who was responsible for the majority of these events and in this update we'll take a look at the progress of this region. As mentioned in our last sunspot update, the region did not have any magnetic delta structures and had been classified as a beta-gamma region but due to the rapid evolvement of the region it started to gain new spots and also new delta structures during the day. Because of that the flux started to rise and stronger flares were possible. The faculae within the intermediate part decayed completely and in place of that new penumbral mass was formed with lots of new spots that gained in size. There are three delta structures currently present. The strongest one being in the northeastern part of the sunspot cluster. In the penumbral area of the leaderspot there is also a small delta spot visible and yet another one just west of it. Because of the growing delta structure and the continues development within the region, more M-class flare are almost a guarantee and even a major flare will be possible. M-class flare probability: 80% chance X-class flare probability: 35% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Sunspot Region Update January 5, 2014 - 11:00 UTC Region 1944 changed a lot during the night losing it's previously mentioned delta spots. Some spot decay was also noted in the northwestern part of the sunspot cluster. In the southwestern part there was strong growth noted with growing penumbral area and new spots including two relatively large delta spots. A strong flare is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Coronal Mass Ejection analysis January 5, 2014 - 14:10 UTC There is now enough satellite imagery available to analyse the CME that was launched during the long duration M4.0 solar flare from January 4. The solar flare launched an asymmetrical full halo CME that has a clear Earth-directed component. While the bulk of the ejecta is heading south of the ecliptic, a decent impact is to be expected. First estimates of the CME it's launch speed indicate it left the Sun at a speed of 800 to 1000km/s. However, it is to be noted that the part of the CME that is heading for Earth left the Sun at a slightly slower speed of about 700km/sec. This would put the arrival time for this CME somewhere during the second half of January 7th. Expected geomagnetic activity The polarity of the IMF is expected to be northward when the CME arrives. This would suppress the CME it's effects on Earth's magnetic field and thus prevent major storming. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) will be likely with a chance for brief periods of G1 geomagnetic storming under optimal conditions, which stands for a K-indice of 5. Note that it will only be possible to really determine what kind of geomagnetic conditions are to be expected once an impact has been detected and we know what the solar wind and IMF values are, so keep following our updates in this topic and on our social media channels for the most up-to-date and accurate information, this is a preliminary forecast. Low Latitudes: 1% chance Lower Middle Latitudes: 10% chance Upper Middle Latitudes: 30% chance High Latitudes: 90% chance The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see auroras during a G1 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness. North America: Seattle (WA, USA) Chicago (IL, USA) Toronto (ON, Canada) Halifax (NS, Canada)Europe: Edinburgh (Scotland) Gothenburg (Sweden) Riga (Latvia)Southern Hemisphere: Hobart (Australia) Invercargill (New Zealand)More info http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD_Ub4pQGcg We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Sunspot Region Update January 5, 2014 - 21:00 UTC Solar activity was fairly low today with no M-class flares, we only had a few minor C-class flares but that was all. Why did 1944 became so quiet? To search for that answer we can combine the magnetogram with the SDO AIA 171Ã… imagery: As we wrote earlier today we had two delta structures in the southern part, but most of the large magnetic loops stretch out to region 1946 and thus a bit out of the war zone. Yesterdays M4 flare occurred because of the underlying delta structures that persisted there yesterday and started to interact with region 1943. These delta structures however faded away during the night. The solar flux remains very high but lacks flare activity so let's look at the region as it is in the latest imagery and look at the flare potential for tomorrow... The region is fairly stable gaining spots and penumbral area in the trailing part, particularly the southwestern part where two fairly large magnetic delta spots reside. Those delta structures are stable but are not squashed with opposite polarity so chances are not that high that we see flaring activity within this part of the region. If a delta structure would form in the northern part, things might get interesting again. We can only hope that the region keeps developing, particularly in the northern part. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 10% chance Read our previous post for our analysis of the M4.0 Coronal Mass Ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's good news! Can you please predict the weather as accurately as the CME's arrivals? I am afraid that I will miss yet another shock... This would put the arrival time for this CME somewhere during the second half of January 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The interaction between AR 1944 and AR 1946 looks strong. My guess is this is cancelling out some of the magnetic energy that could be used to produce solar flares - my theory! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 A quick update this morning! There are some interesting things happening within the region, some new spot development went through in the central section of the region, near the leader spot there is a small spot with opposite polarity which tries to connect with the penumbral area of the leader spot, because it is to connected yet it's not a magnetic delta spot. In the central soup of scattered penumbral area and some spots, there are growing some small spots with opposite polarity but are also not yet connected to the penumbral area of the opposite polarity. If development continues in those areas it might get interesting again for some flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The interaction between AR 1944 and AR 1946 looks strong. My guess is this is cancelling out some of the magnetic energy that could be used to produce solar flares - my theory! ;-) I like your theory. Pretty disappointing it went quiet now but it still got a few days to develop and rip itself apart with a nice flare, still got a few days near the center of the Earth-facing disk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Sunspot Region Update January 6, 2014 - 22:30 UTC It was really calm today with sunspot 1944, the only interesting thing that happened today was a major far side eruption from region 1936. But let's return to sunspot 1944, is it still worth to write updates about this region? It has been quiet for too long but although it's quiet, it did showed some interesting development as we noted this morning and has expanded through the day. To make our text a bit more readable, we made again an image that sums things up a bit and helps you to understand it better. The leader spot is stable but the dark core is breaking apart, penumbral area did not diminish so it's not yet classified as a decaying leaderspot. Just east of the leaderspot a very small delta spot has formed, it's very weak so it will not cause much, it is not penumbral connected with the leader spot too. Now some good news because the trailing part of the sunspot cluster is the region with the most continues development with much new penumbral area and new spots that emerge within. The two strong delta spots remain remain relatively stable but the most southern delta has lost some size; these twos delta's are not close to an other spot with opposite polarity so these cause almost no friction. In the middle of the trailing part a new delta structure has formed but is still relatively small and weak. The sunspot cluster does its best to gain spots but lacks to organize in one large penumbral area with mixed polarities that are wrenched together; that's the main reason why we don't see any strong flares. Chances can still grow if the trailing part further develops and organizes itself. The development is good but we need some extra lemon juice to get it all started again. So to sum things up, can we expect some strong flares? Maybe but chances remain low and only if the development goes on, it's still possible but time will tell. M-class flare probability: 50% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Question time... Harry Twinotter had a theory about the solar magnetic field lines that go to region 1946, the interaction is there but it's not the main cause of the lack of flares, see earlier in my analysis. But beside that it's great to look at the magnetic field lines and see those interactions between regions and yes the connections with 1946 are very clear in the SDO imagery, in the more narrower bands you'll see the closer to the surface field lines and it's mostly in the inner loops that a flare occurs. The flare than breaks the more upper field lines and throw plasma in space. Now to make a neat example of magnetism i tried to make my previous image with the magnetic field lines between spots and it's quiet nice to look with what spots they are connected: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-67260600-1389048807.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1-0-70453000-1389048804.jpg In our SDO imagery page when you click on the image menu below an SDO image, you can select an PFSS option which is a better representation of what i did and let's you see the field lines better. if you have questions, don't hesitate to contact us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Region 1946 Region 1946 is developing a small delta spot in the central part; this friction caused an impulsive M1 solar flare, no CME is expected due to the impulsive nature of the event. Region 1944 Meanwhile in 1944 the most southern delta spot has separated itself from the penumbral area with opposite polarity and can no longer be seen as a delta spot. The other two delta structures remain intact. M-class flaring remains possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity update January 7, 2014 - 10:47 UTC Solar activity reached high levels as Active Region 1944 produced an M7.24 solar flare (R2-moderate) which peaked at 10:13 UTC. It was a relatively impulsive event but didn't last very short, the flux was within M-range for about 45 minutes but dropped relatively fast after it's peak. This region is now in a perfect geo-effective position should there be a Coronal Mass Ejection associated with this event. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-26399100-1389091599.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-03230700-1389091726.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-60676400-1389093966.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-33699400-1389091864.png UPDATE 11:40 UTC: Latest STEREO COR2 imagery (not in this post) do not show a CME yet from the M7 solar flare that peaked this morning. There is a real possibility that there was no, or only a very weak CME associated with this event. We keep you updated as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity update January 7, 2014 - 18:40 UTC Active Region 1944 together with magnetic plage region 1943 produced today an X1.25 solar flare (R3-strong) which peaked at 18:32 UTC. This region is in a perfect geo-effective position should there be a Coronal Mass Ejection associated with this event. It is possible that the space radiation storm will increase beyond the S1 level that we are currently experiencing. More information will follow later and will be added to this post. UPDATE 19:30 UTC: A bright and fast CME can be seen leaving the blast site. Our first measurements indicate the CME left the Sun at a speed around 2.000 km/s, which is fast for a CME. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-18011300-1389123591.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-45379900-1389123592.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-94-0-73797600-1389123593.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 If (fast) CME, could it arrive before Thursday morning, say 05:00 UT? Then I have to go to the airport and leave Lapland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 If (fast) CME, could it arrive before Thursday morning, say 05:00 UT? Then I have to go to the airport and leave Lapland.... Our first measurements indacte this CME is extremly (around 2.000 km/s) fast. This means the CME could arrive in less than 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That could actually literally save my trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Paulsky Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Oh Kins, So sorry to hear that you will have to leave Lapland in two days. On the other hand, I just arrived in Bergen an will depart at 23hrs UTC tonight northbound. Svolvær next Friday, Tromso on Saturday, and Honningsvag on Sunday. All together we will stay here 12 days, so my expectations are quite positive. Keep you all informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 You have the coast of Northern Norway, you should be good for the weather at least Enjoy your trip! From Honningsvag you can easily go to the North Cape (Nordkap), but beware the opening times of the road (scheduled openings behind a snowplow). It's extremely beautiful around there! Aurora photos must be breathtaking, especially that you will have a bright moon very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 The Solar radiation storm is currently rising again but is still within S1 - minor radiation storm levels. There is a chance that the S2 level will be reached. Meanwhile the EPAM monitor shows a sharp increase in low energy electrons that further confirms the Earthward CME. We still wait for LASCO imagery for further analysis. Below you can watch the AIA difference movie of the event and it shows clearly the effects of the X1.2 flare. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=501148636666317&set=vb.133686703412514&type=2&theater Special thanks for this video goes to Nariaki Nitta from the Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Coronal Mass Ejection update January 7, 2014 - 21:15 UTC Here is the latest image from SOHO/LASCO C3. A clear majority of the plasma cloud looks to be heading west and south of us and away from Earth. Part of the CME is for sure Earth-directed based on the response we saw on ACE EPAM but it is still not possible to exactly tell how strong the Earth-directed part is. It is however clear that we are missing out on it's biggest effects. More imagery is needed to determine what kind of effect the cloud will have on Earth and when to expect it's arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Looking at 1944 after the flare, it hasn't change much. The 4 delta spots remain stable with the southeastern spot in the trailing area close to a spot of the opposite polarity so that's the most important delta spot. A strong flare is still possible and because of the flares from today and the magnetic complexity we again raise our flare expectations for tomorrow: M-class flare probability: 80% chanceX-class flare probability: 35% chance Tomorrow we will come with a detailed CME analysis and a geomagnetic storming prediction. We are awaiting satellite imagery to make a detailed event analysis. Read our other posts of today for more information regarding the events of today. An S2 moderate radiation storm is underway, the greater than 10 Mev primary solar protons are rising steadily and are almost reaching the threshold. If it rises further (S3 unlikely) the solar wind speed and density may become unreliable due to the ongoing radiation storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Coronal X1.2 CME update January 8, 2014 - 06:00 UTC Now that LASCO data is near complete it's time for a deeper analysis on the CME from the X1.2 flare. LASCO data indicate a full halo CME with most of the ejecta headed towards the southeast of the ecliptic with a fair part of the CME Earth directed. CME speed varies a bit but there are sufficient datapoints to know that the CME had a speed of about 2000km/sec, which means we can expect an arrival tomorrow. An exact impact time can never be given as it is one of the hardest to forecast, an impact seems plausible around 6 UTC time on january 9th with + and - 6 hours impact window and can cause moderate geomagnetic storming up to G2 level (Kp6). More updates will follow during the day. Due to the ongoing Space Radiation Storm the ACE data is currently unreliable and effects the solar wind speed and density measurements. This will prevent to interpret the arrival of the CME impact. Because of the expected amount of visitors it could be that the site is going to be difficult to reach at times, we hope that this won't happen. Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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