Guest Chaser1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hello, My science backround is primarily related to Meteorology, however have a keen interest in Aurora Borealis and am planning a vacation to view it with my daughter in early March of this year. I live in Florida U.S., and options are to travel to Norway or Alaska U.S. As I am writing this now, I clearly see that present KP state stands at "0 KP". However, I notice that in spite of no present solar flaring, CME's, etc.,and a KP-0, regions around 60N-70N (especially over Alaska) appear to still have some nightly Aurora visibility. My primary question is, how common is it for very northern latitudes to see nightly Aurora's, even during a 0 KP status? Other question is regarding what I believe is called the Auroral Ovation (?). Is it possible that some areas further SOUTH by a few degrees, may actually witness a particularly stronger/better overhead Auroral event. Finally, even if Aurora Borealis activity can commonly be visible during a KP 0 event, does such a low KP nearly guarantee that those evening's Aurora will be fairly short lived and less vivid, than during a higher KP activity range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hello and welcome. Going to answer your questions as best as I can from my own experience. Aurora can indeed still appear even during very quiet space weather conditions as long as you are in the right area. Northern Scandinavia and Alaska are indeed good areas if you wish to optimize your chance of viewing aurora. You need to be near the auroral oval so even higher latitudes will worsen your chance to see aurora. Aurora at the north pole is actually pretty rare for example. Aurora shows itself almost every night at the optimal viewing locations but perhaps less often and less strong during quiet space weather conditions. Of course clouds can be a major problem if you are unlucky. During geomagnetic storms it can indeed happen that stronger aurora takes place at more southern latitudes than normal but I would not worry about that. If there is a lot of auroral activity, you will see it at places like Alaska and Norway. Hope this helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acidus Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I would say that following the kp indice and ovation is giving you a really inaccurate view of the true aurora activity of the area. The measures that are closest to true auroral activity in my opinion is magnetometers closest to the location you're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Chaser1 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Acidus said: I would say that following the kp indice and ovation is giving you a really inaccurate view of the true aurora activity of the area. The measures that are closest to true auroral activity in my opinion is magnetometers closest to the location you're at. How many hours beforehand can I use magnetometer readings for any given location? Also, are you suggesting that I could be looking at a KP of 0 and minimal ovation, yet still possibly read fairly high magnetometer readings for a specific location, and thus see fairly impressive aurora's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The Kp-index is always an indicator of activity in the past so it is less useful if you need to decide if there is aurora right now. The Wing Kp-index does try to forecast what the Kp will do in the near future. It does a decent job but it has it's flaws. Be sure to check out our new Kp index page at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/the-kp-index Magnetometer readings are updated every few minutes usually and are indeed your best tool when it comes to the activity that takes place now. If you are in (northern) Europe you can till example take the Kiruna magnetometer. It is frequently updated and an valuable tool for European sky watcher. I wouldn't worry too much about the Kp or OVATION if you are going to high latitude locations like Alaska or northern Norway. Of course you can increase your chance of seeing (impressive) auroral displays if you know what to look for in the data, it is not critical if you just want to see aurora. Some patience will go a long way as the aurora can show up at any time at such latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Agree here with Marcel. The Kp is a good indicator, but for the past. Between 0,5 and 3.5 hours behind. The official Kp-index which is calculated by the Gfz in Potsdam uses 13 magnetometers around the world. NOAA/SWPC uses only 8, and the Wing-KP Estimated Kp uses 9, but 8 of them are in North America, not very suitable for Europe. At least, that explaines the difference between several Kp-indices. For real-time, you need to watch for magnetometers which are closest to your own location. Or directly above you in terms of latitude. I also like the Kiruna Magnatometer a lot, because it has data, graphics and also a near-realtime "Q-index", which shows a K-index for the last 15 minutes. Look here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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