Guest danderson500 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 are you sure that the CME might be earth directed? it is not geoffective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 appears to be a faint CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I just saw cactus and the CME has no halo at all this might be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looking at this model ther e is a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 You have to look at 18/12:00. There you see what is called a "glancing blow". It is close if this is a hit or a miss. This is why this is difficult to predict. The nasa model has the same timing and is also close. It certainly looks like the most of the CME is not earth directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Moved all the posts which are related to the filament eruption to a new topic. Solid conclusion Waldo. This is indeed a very hard CME to predict. Our conclusions made yesterday can be found at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/171/20151116-filament-eruption-small-coronal-hole It looks based on LASCO like it is not directed towards us as the halo does not exceed 180 degrees but a glancing blow like the models show just can not be excluded. EPAM protons are elevated so I slowly start to believe that there might indeed be something coming towards us. It is really a 50/50 for me at this point. Very hard event to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://solardemon.oma.be/dimmings.php?did=2028&science=0 Good position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 wait a minute! it was not in a good piston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I hope someone can answer this question but why would NOAA say 70 NT when the solar wind is not going up that much maybe it is a error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The 70 nT NOAA reported was a SUMSUD alert, which means a geomagnetic sudden impulse. This is a sudden deflection in the h-component of the magnetometer data. This is something different than solar wind speed. The SUMSUD was reported on 18/20:10 by station code WNG which is Wingst Germany. The graphic of last night was: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 What does Geomagnetic sudden impulse mean? What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 A sudden compression of the magnetosphere by for example a CME arrival. Seen as a spike upwards on magnetometers. Example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Define "sudden", then. Does it mean "unexpected" or "stronger than expected"? I'm having a real hard time understanding that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not sure where the term sudden exactly comes from but I would guess it's something along the line of that it's a very quick intensification of the solar wind environment around Earth. A CME slams into the magnetosphere. The magnetic field goes from quiet to being under high pressure very rapidly. It has nothing to do with it being strong than expected. The term is used for any CME arrival, no matter how small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 5 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: Not sure where the term sudden exactly comes from but I would guess it's something along the line of that it's a very quick intensification of the solar wind environment around Earth. A CME slams into the magnetosphere. The magnetic field goes from quiet to being under high pressure very rapidly. It has nothing to do with it being strong than expected. The term is used for any CME arrival, no matter how small. Oh. I'm sorry. I only received such a notification three times, yet I registered to the SWPC email alerts about 2 years ago. So I thought it was something rather uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I took a query of all sumsud alerts from the last two years. You can find the alerts archive on the SWPC website: issue_time code ser time station value 2014-01-07 15:25:00 SUMSUD 183 2014-01-07 15:15 BOU 7 nT 2014-01-09 20:18:00 SUMSUD 184 2014-01-09 20:10 FRN 12 nT 2014-02-07 17:16:00 SUMSUD 185 2014-02-07 17:03 CL2 13 nT 2014-02-15 13:26:00 SUMSUD 186 2014-02-15 13:11 HAD 23 nT 2014-02-20 03:39:00 SUMSUD 187 2014-02-20 03:29 BOU 31 nT 2014-02-27 17:01:00 SUMSUD 188 2014-02-27 16:53 HAD 22 nT 2014-03-25 20:15:00 SUMSUD 189 2014-03-25 20:09 HAD 23 nT 2014-04-14 06:24:00 SUMSUD 190 2014-04-14 06:12 BOU 15 nT 2014-04-20 11:04:00 SUMSUD 191 2014-04-20 10:57 Boulder 24 nT 2014-06-07 17:09:00 SUMSUD 192 2014-06-07 16:57 Ottawa 17 nT 2014-06-23 23:23:00 SUMSUD 193 2014-06-23 23:08 Boulder 34 nT 2014-07-03 01:24:00 SUMSUD 194 2014-07-03 00:41 Boulder 21 nT 2014-07-14 15:02:00 SUMSUD 195 2014-07-14 14:43 Bou 10 nT 2014-08-19 07:13:00 SUMSUD 196 2014-08-19 07:00 BOU 12 nT 2014-09-06 15:45:00 SUMSUD 197 2014-09-06 15:25 College 63 nT 2014-09-11 23:51:00 SUMSUD 198 2014-09-11 23:46 Boulder 33 nT 2014-09-12 16:03:00 SUMSUD 199 2014-09-12 15:55 Boulder 43 nT 2014-12-21 19:24:00 SUMSUD 200 2014-12-21 19:16 FRD 10 nT 2014-12-23 12:25:00 SUMSUD 201 2014-12-23 11:17 FRD 42 nT 2015-03-17 08:31:00 SUMSUD 204 2015-03-17 04:45 BOU 54 nT 2015-05-06 02:06:00 SUMSUD 207 2015-05-06 01:43 Bou 31 nT 2015-06-21 17:00:00 SUMSUD 208 2015-06-21 16:50 HAD 48 nT 2015-06-22 06:31:00 SUMSUD 209 2015-06-22 05:45 Guam 19 nT 2015-06-22 18:39:00 SUMSUD 210 2015-06-22 18:37 FRD 112 nT 2015-08-15 09:08:00 SUMSUD 211 2015-08-15 07:45 Niemegk 36 nT 2015-09-20 06:12:00 SUMSUD 212 2015-09-20 06:05 Boulder 27 nT 2015-10-24 19:08:00 SUMSUD 213 2015-10-24 18:57 BOU 24 nT 2015-11-06 18:29:00 SUMSUD 214 2015-11-06 18:25 Boulder 15 nT 2015-11-18 20:38:00 SUMSUD 215 2015-11-18 20:10 WNG 70 nT You see that they occured 29 times during the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 6 hours ago, Waldo Hazeleger said: I took a query of all sumsud alerts from the last two years. You can find the alerts archive on the SWPC website: issue_time code ser time station value 2014-01-07 15:25:00 SUMSUD 183 2014-01-07 15:15 BOU 7 nT 2014-01-09 20:18:00 SUMSUD 184 2014-01-09 20:10 FRN 12 nT 2014-02-07 17:16:00 SUMSUD 185 2014-02-07 17:03 CL2 13 nT 2014-02-15 13:26:00 SUMSUD 186 2014-02-15 13:11 HAD 23 nT 2014-02-20 03:39:00 SUMSUD 187 2014-02-20 03:29 BOU 31 nT 2014-02-27 17:01:00 SUMSUD 188 2014-02-27 16:53 HAD 22 nT 2014-03-25 20:15:00 SUMSUD 189 2014-03-25 20:09 HAD 23 nT 2014-04-14 06:24:00 SUMSUD 190 2014-04-14 06:12 BOU 15 nT 2014-04-20 11:04:00 SUMSUD 191 2014-04-20 10:57 Boulder 24 nT 2014-06-07 17:09:00 SUMSUD 192 2014-06-07 16:57 Ottawa 17 nT 2014-06-23 23:23:00 SUMSUD 193 2014-06-23 23:08 Boulder 34 nT 2014-07-03 01:24:00 SUMSUD 194 2014-07-03 00:41 Boulder 21 nT 2014-07-14 15:02:00 SUMSUD 195 2014-07-14 14:43 Bou 10 nT 2014-08-19 07:13:00 SUMSUD 196 2014-08-19 07:00 BOU 12 nT 2014-09-06 15:45:00 SUMSUD 197 2014-09-06 15:25 College 63 nT 2014-09-11 23:51:00 SUMSUD 198 2014-09-11 23:46 Boulder 33 nT 2014-09-12 16:03:00 SUMSUD 199 2014-09-12 15:55 Boulder 43 nT 2014-12-21 19:24:00 SUMSUD 200 2014-12-21 19:16 FRD 10 nT 2014-12-23 12:25:00 SUMSUD 201 2014-12-23 11:17 FRD 42 nT 2015-03-17 08:31:00 SUMSUD 204 2015-03-17 04:45 BOU 54 nT 2015-05-06 02:06:00 SUMSUD 207 2015-05-06 01:43 Bou 31 nT 2015-06-21 17:00:00 SUMSUD 208 2015-06-21 16:50 HAD 48 nT 2015-06-22 06:31:00 SUMSUD 209 2015-06-22 05:45 Guam 19 nT 2015-06-22 18:39:00 SUMSUD 210 2015-06-22 18:37 FRD 112 nT 2015-08-15 09:08:00 SUMSUD 211 2015-08-15 07:45 Niemegk 36 nT 2015-09-20 06:12:00 SUMSUD 212 2015-09-20 06:05 Boulder 27 nT 2015-10-24 19:08:00 SUMSUD 213 2015-10-24 18:57 BOU 24 nT 2015-11-06 18:29:00 SUMSUD 214 2015-11-06 18:25 Boulder 15 nT 2015-11-18 20:38:00 SUMSUD 215 2015-11-18 20:10 WNG 70 nT You see that they occured 29 times during the last two years. Thank you, it is so clear now =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.