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Active Region 2106


Marcel de Bont

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

M-class flare July 1, 2014

 


Solar activity increased to moderate levels yesterday as sunspot region 2106 produced an M-class flare: M1.4 at 11:23 UTC and launched an associated CME. The same region produced a C6.0 solar flare only moments before the M1.4 flare (you can see the C6 in the beginning of the video) and based on AIA imagery it is actually the C6 solar flare that launched most of the CME material.

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The C6/M1 solar flare combination launched a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that is heading north and away from Earth.

2isfdcn.gif

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity will likely be low but another M-class solar flare is possible today. Sunspot region 2104 is a Beta-Gamma-Delta region that has been fairly quiet but it absolutely has the potential for M-class activity. Sunspot region 2106 (source of the M1 flare) is only a relatively simple region and unlikely to produce another M-class flare. The full disk flare probabilities for the coming 24 hours are:

M-class flare probability: 35% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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