Guest Keith Woodard Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Good Day, According to the Neutron Monitoring station located at Thule (Thule AB), there was a signficant CME that reached our atmosphere around 12:00 PM GMT on 04/04/2014. I am not sure of the time conversion. There is a direct correlation with CMEs that are directed towards the earth and the reduction of CGRs or Cosmic Radiation. http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/realtime/thule.html Cheers, KWITS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Hi Keith, we are expecting a CME at any moment now from the M6 solar flare. It is likely close (see ACE EPAM) but it has yet to arrive at ACE. Perhaps that is why the cosmic rays are less than normal. But again, the CME has yet to reach Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Keith Woodard Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Thank you for your post! ThIs news is facinating. It takes light to travel 15 minutes from the sun but I don't know about CME's. However, it is interesting that the CME may be causing a shock wave that has begun to push away CGRs that are continously reaching the planet. Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Keith Woodard Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Good Day, I noticed that CGRs have just reversed their negative trend and are increasing once again; this reporting is in real time. Did the CME hit the earth yet and was it a glancing blow? Thanks, Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 It takes light just over 8 minutes to travel from the Sun to Earth. CMEs typically a day or 3 but some are much faster and some are much slower. The extremely fast CMEs take less than a day to arrive. EPAM decided to prank us and returned back to fairly unimpressive levels so it's hard to say how far the CME is away from us but there is definitely something on the way. EDIT: Perhaps the EPAM readings weren't false then. As soon as EPAM rose the cosmic rays went down and now that EPAM dropped the cosmuc rays go up. This is remarkable! The CME is expected to arrive in about 6 hours according to the models. There is no reason to believe it missed us at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Keith Woodard Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 What would a CME visually look like from space? Would a CME appear to be a plasma cloud or would it be invisible to anything other than a microwave detection device? What is the propagation shape as it travels through space? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vincent van Leijen Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The question for the shape of a CME propagation has been in my mind to. I think that for a radial from source (sun) to receiver (earth) it is safe to assume a spherical spreading loss. But such a radial would typically not be a straight line between sun and earth. And the estimate of the initial density and velocity for the earth directed path leaves room for error. If not, the SWA-Enlil model would produce more accurate results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 I'm not an expert on how CMEs propagate but a simple explanation would be that it's a giant cloud of plasma that expands as it races away from the Sun. Get's less denser further out and it is also know to slow down by slower ambient solar wind. The LASCO instrument is a white light coronagraph. The white light coronagraphs produce images of the corona over much of the visible spectrum. How CMEs exactly propagate is still a hot field of research that we do not know so much about, hence why models can be wrong every now and then.EDIT: cosmic rays taking a dive now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 How CME's propagate depends on the characteristics of the flare itself, the near y other sources like coronal holes (Parker spiral) and possible other CME's that are already on route. CME modeling is an ongoing study by which enlil model is an example. And as we all now the model is far from perfect and requires a lot more research. To say it simple, if a magnetic field line breaks and the material among these lines get thrown into space, that is the start. The meterial expands and expands among the route going from very dense cloud to a very less dense but major width cloud when it arrives at Earth. Because of all the unknown factors and the still prelimenary models like enlil we have only a hint when it might arrive. We always have to wait upon arrival before estimating real chances for aurorae, before that you can only guess from the existing data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Keith Woodard Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 I like to adjudicate the percentage chance for aurorae, especiailly at mid and lower latitudes with CGR reporting. I noticed this morning that neutron counts were still below the 4300 norm per hour. This would mean the last reported flare event on the 2nd is still impacting our magnetosphere. However, I am unsure how long our magnetosphere stays active based upon its expansion in space after a major flare event has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.